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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


bolverk

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29 minutes ago, immamac said:

 

In an optimistic but plausible scenario, I could easily see it going something like this:

image.png.85e76f81d47496809ff5d0717785a38c.png

 

The maths & rationale:

Due to demographic changes and GQP Covid deaths, I could foresee Trump losing 3 percentage points of support. 2 percentage points going to RFK, Jr. and 1 percentage point going to Harris. It's not much, but those three factors make a huge difference in the Electoral College count by picking up North Carolina & Florida (yes, I know).

These were the closest states to tipping blue in 2020.

image.png.e03ebbb6491f3f63e1e636f330402d8b.png 

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3 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

 

 

But even that explanation doesn't make a lot of sense. Might as well start talking about Soul Asylum, as if that's normal to do. 

"Underrated band, Soul Asylum.... Runaway train.... it's never coming back folks. Never coming back."

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5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

In an optimistic but plausible scenario, I could easily see it going something like this:

image.png.85e76f81d47496809ff5d0717785a38c.png

 

The maths & rationale:

Due to demographic changes and GQP Covid deaths, I could foresee Trump losing 3 percentage points of support. 2 percentage points going to RFK, Jr. and 1 percentage point going to Harris. It's not much, but those three factors make a huge difference in the Electoral College count by picking up North Carolina & Florida (yes, I know).

These were the closest states to tipping blue in 2020.

image.png.e03ebbb6491f3f63e1e636f330402d8b.png 

NC seems WAY more plausible to me than FL.  Florida is a hell hole.

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57 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Is there video of girls that are a few years older than Hope on that slingshot ride?  Preferably wearing low-cut tops? 

Ha. As I was watching that, I was thinking to myself how fantastic it would be to see Dotard and Ivanka recreate that scene. It would be mesmerizing to watch Trump's hair take on a life of its own as he ogled Ivanka's warlocks flapping in the breeze next to him. 

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2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

NC seems WAY more plausible to me than FL.  Florida is a hell hole.

Trump beat Biden by a little over 3 percentage points (~400k votes)

Florida has abortion rights on the ballot this November. It’s in play

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1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

NC seems WAY more plausible to me than FL.  Florida is a hell hole.

Quote

picking up North Carolina & Florida (yes, I know).

It was a simplistic math exercise for the five closest states to tipping. I'm sure the number of conservative old retirees killed by Covid in Florida was replaced by an equal (if not greater) number of conservative old retirees since then. There's still a little wiggle room for movement among other groups, but again, yes, it's Florida.

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Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Fl has pot on the ballot. Does that bring any additional voters that would vote D, or just Trump voters that will vote for it?

 

2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Trump beat Biden by a little over 3 percentage points (~400k votes)

Florida has abortion rights on the ballot this November. It’s in play

Good points that I hadn't even considered to factor in.

Edited by bolverk
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8 hours ago, South Austin said:

If it's true that Obama is pissed, I hope he considers the significant number of minority voters who would have been furious if the sitting VP, a multiracial woman, was passed up by another old white dude.

I know I'm preaching to a large choir, but Kelly for President just wouldn't have moved the needle for a block of voters who were previously apathetic when Biden was the nominee.  

It's so fucking obvious.  She represents a minority -- non-white Americans -- but she represents a MAJORITY -- American women.

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6 minutes ago, G650 said:

I will eat my hat if Florida goes blue. Metaphorically speaking, of course.

I'll eat your literal hat if Florida goes blue.

They're taking everybody's most MAGA semi-successful neighbors. 

Well, all the ones who don't stop in Texas that is.

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22 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

In an optimistic but plausible scenario, I could easily see it going something like this:

image.png.85e76f81d47496809ff5d0717785a38c.png

 

The maths & rationale:

Due to demographic changes and GQP Covid deaths, I could foresee Trump losing 3 percentage points of support. 2 percentage points going to RFK, Jr. and 1 percentage point going to Harris. It's not much, but those three factors make a huge difference in the Electoral College count by picking up North Carolina & Florida (yes, I know).

These were the closest states to tipping blue in 2020.

image.png.e03ebbb6491f3f63e1e636f330402d8b.png 


then the court battle starts !

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image.png.f7a5f44bed4252824dd985a552bc7999.png

 

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist, fuck do people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

Edited by TeeDubya
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Just now, TeeDubya said:

image.png.f7a5f44bed4252824dd985a552bc7999.png

 

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist fuck to people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

The first part answers your second part, as you know. 

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Just now, TeeDubya said:

image.png.f7a5f44bed4252824dd985a552bc7999.png

 

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist fuck to people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

mostly: because they've been fed pure unadulterated bullshit by oil and tobacco companies and religion for as long as anyone can remember and have been conditioned to think that any change at the behest of anyone else is an attack on their way of life.

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3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


in your world … what happens if trump loses the 2024 Election, both the electoral college and popular vote ?

 

Biden treats it as the mandate that it would be, and sends a cruise missile to Mar a lago. 

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5 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

image.png.f7a5f44bed4252824dd985a552bc7999.png

 

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist, fuck do people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

Yew cain't tell me whut t'do.

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4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:


in your world … what happens if trump loses the 2024 Election, both the electoral college and popular vote ?

 

So they’ll sue? Big deal. They tried that already, with a much more favorable judiciary and state apparatuses 

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Lots of explanations about the Hannibal Lecter thing, and I think the "asylum" explanation seems likely, but as to why he tags the "late great Hannibal" bit, I think somewhere in the corners of his stupid brain he is pulling Hannibal the Great, the Carthaginian general.

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46 minutes ago, G650 said:

I will eat my hat if Florida goes blue. Metaphorically speaking, of course.

Listen asshole. You're probably right, but.....but, Florida and North Carolina are at least worth putting time and money into. Fuck shitbag Ohio and Texas....

 

 

 

...and nobody likes you 

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1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

It had been explained 63747252 times how gerrymandering does in fact, fuck up statewide races

Texas is gerrymandered but is also full of dumbass rubes.  NC and WIS are gerrymandered as bad if not worse than TX yet have Dem governors.  It ain't gerrymandering keeping TX governorship red, it's a shitty electorate.

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2 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Lots of explanations about the Hannibal Lecter thing, and I think the "asylum" explanation seems likely, but as to why he tags the "late great Hannibal" bit, I think somewhere in the corners of his stupid brain he is pulling Hannibal the Great, the Carthaginian general.

Like Trump knows who that is, but I bet he thinks he’s smarter than some dead general 

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13 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist, fuck do people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

I think the deep motivation underneath it all is a belief they are voting for their interest.  If you're a left-behind uneducated white person, its rational to believe that voting for a racist system will provide fewer opportunities to black people, which means more opportunities to you.

 

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4 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Lots of explanations about the Hannibal Lecter thing, and I think the "asylum" explanation seems likely, but as to why he tags the "late great Hannibal" bit, I think somewhere in the corners of his stupid brain he is pulling Hannibal the Great, the Carthaginian general.

Cracking Up Lol GIF by NBA on TNT

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4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Texas is gerrymandered but is also full of dumbass rubes.  NC and WIS are gerrymandered as bad if not worse than TX yet have Dem governors.  It ain't gerrymandering keeping TX governorship red, it's a shitty electorate.

A lack of power in downballot elections depresses turnout statewide because it feeds into apathetic "vibes."

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6 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Lots of explanations about the Hannibal Lecter thing, and I think the "asylum" explanation seems likely, but as to why he tags the "late great Hannibal" bit, I think somewhere in the corners of his stupid brain he is pulling Hannibal the Great, the Carthaginian general who in 1972 headed a crack commando unit that was sent to prison by a military court for a crime they didn't commit.

much more likely.

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