2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[TexEx15 17067]

 

[bolverk 29035]

29 minutes ago, immamac said:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2024-Electoral-Interactive-Map?mapId=MjAyMDA0MTAyNjEwMTcyMTk0MTM2MTIzMTQwLUuSJFm2bUmSbVGSZFmSbVuSZUmyLA

 

In an optimistic but plausible scenario, I could easily see it going something like this:

 

The maths & rationale:

Due to demographic changes and GQP Covid deaths, I could foresee Trump losing 3 percentage points of support. 2 percentage points going to RFK, Jr. and 1 percentage point going to Harris. It's not much, but those three factors make a huge difference in the Electoral College count by picking up North Carolina & Florida (yes, I know).

These were the closest states to tipping blue in 2020.

 

[Red Five 40274]

3 minutes ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

 

 

But even that explanation doesn't make a lot of sense. Might as well start talking about Soul Asylum, as if that's normal to do. 

"Underrated band, Soul Asylum.... Runaway train.... it's never coming back folks. Never coming back."

[MissingInAction 24324]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Incredible. She’s been dead for 25 years. 

Vaseline and a heating pad work wonders.

[Hank Kingsley 19998]

Walz would literally end Vance's political career in a debate (this vid is from before Joe dropped out, btw)

 

[Biff Tannen 45013]

5 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

In an optimistic but plausible scenario, I could easily see it going something like this:

 

The maths & rationale:

Due to demographic changes and GQP Covid deaths, I could foresee Trump losing 3 percentage points of support. 2 percentage points going to RFK, Jr. and 1 percentage point going to Harris. It's not much, but those three factors make a huge difference in the Electoral College count by picking up North Carolina & Florida (yes, I know).

These were the closest states to tipping blue in 2020.

 

NC seems WAY more plausible to me than FL.  Florida is a hell hole.

[Blotto 23245]

57 minutes ago, Gil Bang said:

Is there video of girls that are a few years older than Hope on that slingshot ride?  Preferably wearing low-cut tops? 

Ha. As I was watching that, I was thinking to myself how fantastic it would be to see Dotard and Ivanka recreate that scene. It would be mesmerizing to watch Trump's hair take on a life of its own as he ogled Ivanka's warlocks flapping in the breeze next to him. 

[G650 13195]

I will eat my hat if Florida goes blue. Metaphorically speaking, of course.

[Pato del Muerto 52035]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

NC seems WAY more plausible to me than FL.  Florida is a hell hole.

Fl has pot on the ballot. Does that bring any additional voters that would vote D, or just Trump voters that will vote for it?

[ConferenceRoom 5969]

5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Walz would literally end Vance's political career in a debate (this vid is from before Joe dropped out, btw)

 

I’m sold. Walz is Him. 

[Sawbonz 26808]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

NC seems WAY more plausible to me than FL.  Florida is a hell hole.

Trump beat Biden by a little over 3 percentage points (~400k votes)

Florida has abortion rights on the ballot this November. It’s in play

[bolverk 29035]

1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

NC seems WAY more plausible to me than FL.  Florida is a hell hole.

Quote

picking up North Carolina & Florida (yes, I know).

It was a simplistic math exercise for the five closest states to tipping. I'm sure the number of conservative old retirees killed by Covid in Florida was replaced by an equal (if not greater) number of conservative old retirees since then. There's still a little wiggle room for movement among other groups, but again, yes, it's Florida.

[bolverk 29035]

4 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Fl has pot on the ballot. Does that bring any additional voters that would vote D, or just Trump voters that will vote for it?

 

2 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

Trump beat Biden by a little over 3 percentage points (~400k votes)

Florida has abortion rights on the ballot this November. It’s in play

Good points that I hadn't even considered to factor in.

Edited July 25 by bolverk

[Planet Houston 4918]

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11508]

I think demographics has NC trending blue and FL trending further red.  Charlotte is looking at 10% increase in population since 2020.

[jimmyjazz 45162]

8 hours ago, South Austin said:

If it's true that Obama is pissed, I hope he considers the significant number of minority voters who would have been furious if the sitting VP, a multiracial woman, was passed up by another old white dude.

I know I'm preaching to a large choir, but Kelly for President just wouldn't have moved the needle for a block of voters who were previously apathetic when Biden was the nominee.  

It's so fucking obvious.  She represents a minority -- non-white Americans -- but she represents a MAJORITY -- American women.

[Okie State 3696]

LOL at Oklahoma going blue. Not a chance in hell.

[Pato del Muerto 52035]

2 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's so fucking obvious.  She represents a minority -- non-white Americans -- but she represents a MAJORITY -- American women.

So the past few male presidents have been minorities?  DEI candidates?

[aggie08 20342]

6 minutes ago, G650 said:

I will eat my hat if Florida goes blue. Metaphorically speaking, of course.

I'll eat your literal hat if Florida goes blue.

They're taking everybody's most MAGA semi-successful neighbors. 

Well, all the ones who don't stop in Texas that is.

[tx 3 putt 75220]

22 minutes ago, bolverk said:

 

In an optimistic but plausible scenario, I could easily see it going something like this:

 

The maths & rationale:

Due to demographic changes and GQP Covid deaths, I could foresee Trump losing 3 percentage points of support. 2 percentage points going to RFK, Jr. and 1 percentage point going to Harris. It's not much, but those three factors make a huge difference in the Electoral College count by picking up North Carolina & Florida (yes, I know).

These were the closest states to tipping blue in 2020.

 

then the court battle starts !

[Chad Fuck 17301]

 

That’s boss lady shit right there.

[Js1 82948]

Just now, tx 3 putt said:

then the court battle starts !

[Texas Flood 1338]

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

It's so fucking obvious.  She represents a minority -- non-white Americans -- but she represents a MAJORITY -- American women.

Good to have seen you come around

[Pancho 42224]

She’s on the tok

 

[Gil Bang 25550]

50 minutes ago, elfenix said:

Have we talked about Charli xcx yet?

 

 

[Js1 82948]

Sir, a second NH poll has hit the internet

 

[TeeDubya 3321]

 

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist, fuck do people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

Edited July 25 by TeeDubya

[SydneyCarton 47294]

Just now, TeeDubya said:

 

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist fuck to people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

The first part answers your second part, as you know. 

[tx 3 putt 75220]

19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

in your world … what happens if trump loses the 2024 Election, both the electoral college and popular vote ?

 

[elfenix 34075]

Just now, TeeDubya said:

 

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist fuck to people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

mostly: because they've been fed pure unadulterated bullshit by oil and tobacco companies and religion for as long as anyone can remember and have been conditioned to think that any change at the behest of anyone else is an attack on their way of life.

[Constant 6538]

50 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Hopefully there are more like him. 

[Sawbonz 26808]

2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

in your world … what happens if trump loses the 2024 Election, both the electoral college and popular vote ?

 

Did Hugo steal your login?

[Bozo_Casanova 25822]

JD Vance standup comedy

[Constant 6538]

12 minutes ago, Pancho said:

She’s on the tok

 

Engagement in all forms. Keep the rocket fueled. Engage and engage some more. 

[ConferenceRoom 5969]

3 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

in your world … what happens if trump loses the 2024 Election, both the electoral college and popular vote ?

 

Biden treats it as the mandate that it would be, and sends a cruise missile to Mar a lago. 

[RDCanecutter 25890]

5 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

 

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist, fuck do people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

Yew cain't tell me whut t'do.

[Js1 82948]

4 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

in your world … what happens if trump loses the 2024 Election, both the electoral college and popular vote ?

 

So they’ll sue? Big deal. They tried that already, with a much more favorable judiciary and state apparatuses 

[bolverk 29035]

4 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Yew cain't tell me whut t'do.

So much of this.

[TeeDubya 3321]

6 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

Biden treats it as the mandate that it would be, and sends a cruise missile to Mar a lago. 

But is immune from prosecution....

[Hawndoh 2331]

Lots of explanations about the Hannibal Lecter thing, and I think the "asylum" explanation seems likely, but as to why he tags the "late great Hannibal" bit, I think somewhere in the corners of his stupid brain he is pulling Hannibal the Great, the Carthaginian general.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5712]

46 minutes ago, G650 said:

I will eat my hat if Florida goes blue. Metaphorically speaking, of course.

Listen asshole. You're probably right, but.....but, Florida and North Carolina are at least worth putting time and money into. Fuck shitbag Ohio and Texas....

 

 

 

...and nobody likes you 

[Fudge Nuggets 18899]

1 hour ago, StassneyHorn said:

It had been explained 63747252 times how gerrymandering does in fact, fuck up statewide races

Texas is gerrymandered but is also full of dumbass rubes.  NC and WIS are gerrymandered as bad if not worse than TX yet have Dem governors.  It ain't gerrymandering keeping TX governorship red, it's a shitty electorate.

[tx 3 putt 75220]

9 minutes ago, Pancho said:

She’s on the tok

 

does musk have time to buy TikTok ?

[Js1 82948]

2 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Lots of explanations about the Hannibal Lecter thing, and I think the "asylum" explanation seems likely, but as to why he tags the "late great Hannibal" bit, I think somewhere in the corners of his stupid brain he is pulling Hannibal the Great, the Carthaginian general.

Like Trump knows who that is, but I bet he thinks he’s smarter than some dead general 

[MissingInAction 24324]

10 minutes ago, RDCanecutter said:

Yew cain't tell me whut t'do.

Yea.

Years ago I advised family members to upgrade their cell phones due to security issues.

Almost every response was, "What makes you so smart?!"

[Ghost of LL 15244]

I'm sorry, but there is absolutely no fucking way Donald Trump has the first clue who Hannibal is.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11508]

13 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

Why in the fearful, undereducated, racist, fuck do people in these generally low socio-economic states keep voting against their own interests?

I think the deep motivation underneath it all is a belief they are voting for their interest.  If you're a left-behind uneducated white person, its rational to believe that voting for a racist system will provide fewer opportunities to black people, which means more opportunities to you.

 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5712]

4 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Lots of explanations about the Hannibal Lecter thing, and I think the "asylum" explanation seems likely, but as to why he tags the "late great Hannibal" bit, I think somewhere in the corners of his stupid brain he is pulling Hannibal the Great, the Carthaginian general.

[chainsaw 9573]

4 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Texas is gerrymandered but is also full of dumbass rubes.  NC and WIS are gerrymandered as bad if not worse than TX yet have Dem governors.  It ain't gerrymandering keeping TX governorship red, it's a shitty electorate.

A lack of power in downballot elections depresses turnout statewide because it feeds into apathetic "vibes."

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11508]

6 minutes ago, Hawndoh said:

Lots of explanations about the Hannibal Lecter thing, and I think the "asylum" explanation seems likely, but as to why he tags the "late great Hannibal" bit, I think somewhere in the corners of his stupid brain he is pulling Hannibal the Great, the Carthaginian general who in 1972 headed a crack commando unit that was sent to prison by a military court for a crime they didn't commit.

much more likely.