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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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33 minutes ago, Pimphand said:

Pretty funny global market circuit breakers triggering which is a direct result of the runaway lunacy of the shitbag democrats and y'all are still over here in the corner stroking your flaccid micropeens about the dumbest presidential candidate to ever run.

Enjoy the CBDC, UBI, and social credit prison your stupidity help construct as they strip all your financial assets away.

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Hopefully next time you get reincarnated you won't be so gullible.

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1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

She running commercials in Texas. When is the last time a Democrat presidential candidate did that?

Wasn't that a national ad buy ahead of the DNC? 

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Wasn't that a national ad buy ahead of the DNC? 

Don’t know, but I would be shocked if they couldn’t opt in/out of local markets. If they are running TV in Texas during the Olympics it’s almost certainly intentional. 

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Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Don’t know, but I would be shocked if they couldn’t opt in/out of local markets. If they are running TV in Texas during the Olympics it’s almost certainly intentional. 

I think it was a national commercial and it should be on everywhere regardless since she is still introducing herself to voters ahead of the convention.  Just my 2 cents.

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13 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

MAGA has already turned on the GOP a bit, between Trump’s rants in Georgia this weekend (I think he hates Kemp and Raffensperger and their wives more than he hates Democrats), Trump ranting on social media about needing to purge the GOP of anybody who doesn’t like him, and things like Greg Abbott trying to purge the Texas House of Republicans who won’t do what he says.

Right now, MAGA (the concept) can’t win without the old-school Republicans, aka the GOP, and the GOP can’t win without MAGA.  With that said, we are reaching a point where MAGA can’t win with them either, but MAGA doesn’t care about anything other than being MAGA and shitting in their hands and putting it on a t-shirt.  The old-school GOP is reaching a point where it can’t win with MAGA,  but it actually cares and would actually tone down the racism and the misogyny and back off on things like trying to stop birth control in order to win.

And I know they are closely intertwined, and I know MAGA came in part from the GOP, but the difference between the two is that the old-school Republicans in the GOP would roll the clock back to pre-Trump policies and platforms if it meant they had a chance at winning every few elections going down the road.  Sure, plenty are racist and homophobic, but they will keep it hidden if it helps them win.  MAGA is all in on openly being shitheads and refusing to compromise, and they can keep the GOP down for many years to come and they won’t care as long as they can apply their purity tests to candidates.

IMO this will cause a flip because reasons you cited. They'll see they can win with more democrat type backing and middle ground voters over the ever drifting right MAGA fuck faces. I said like 4-5 years ago the MAGA crowd will eventually go so far right they'll alienate themselves and ultimately create a smaller voter base just by attrition alone. Attacking your own party members because they're not rank and filing is the easiest way for that to happen.

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1 hour ago, Pimphand said:

Pretty funny global market circuit breakers triggering which is a direct result of the runaway lunacy of the shitbag democrats and y'all are still over here in the corner stroking your flaccid micropeens about the dumbest presidential candidate to ever run.

Enjoy the CBDC, UBI, and social credit prison your stupidity help construct as they strip all your financial assets away.

image.png.66e20bf27530efeb6e3f4bf472c47482.png

Hopefully next time you get reincarnated you won't be so gullible.

Fuck the Yankees fuck you 

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7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This has been my assumption as well.

  • People will begin paying attention again after Labor Day (as is traditional) and you will see polling switch to likely voter screens
  • Harris should sustain her 2 week rollout bump, VP bump and convention bump + debate bump (if it happens) / some likelihood of a solo townhall if the debate doesn't happen - think we could settle into a Harris +4-5 by end of September with good sized leads in PA/MI/WI/NV and tossups in GA/AZ/NC
  • Trump will further continue to freak out and flail as the polls continue to move away from him.  He went from cocky favorite to currently pure tossup territory and soon will be the underdog.
  • Harris has the edge with double haters and, while she is the current VP, I think she will coalesce undecided voters/late deciders as the "change" candidate (i.e., younger) - especially as she is neither the incumbent POTUS nor a former POTUS.  Trump can't really run on being the change candidate/fresh new ideas when he has a 4 year record already
  • As the poll of Latino voters shows, she has a lot more upside - her favorability with women, black voters, Latino voters and younger voters give her the edge

Still feels to me that Harris' likely EV win is between 276 (PA/MI/WI/NV) and 319 (+AZ/NC/GA).  Even if its 276, I would think her wins in the blue wall + NV will be strong enough to be seen as "untainted" by everyone but MAGA and her losses in AZ/NC/GA would be miniscule. 

I'll take 319, thank you.

 

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1 hour ago, Pimphand said:

Pretty funny global market circuit breakers triggering which is a direct result of the runaway lunacy of the shitbag democrats and y'all are still over here in the corner stroking your flaccid micropeens about the dumbest presidential candidate to ever run.

Enjoy the CBDC, UBI, and social credit prison your stupidity help construct as they strip all your financial assets away.

image.png.66e20bf27530efeb6e3f4bf472c47482.png

Hopefully next time you get reincarnated you won't be so gullible.

Awkward Season 2 GIF by Friends
 

 

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16 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

I'll take 319, thank you.

 

Well yeah, same. But I think it’s just the Biden map with another close L in NC. They’ve voted for a Dem governor twice while electing Trump. Unless Robinson just craters turnout in the state bc of how much he sucks, I think NC is close but no cigar again

NV/WI/MI/PA/AZ all have senate races that I think mutually help Harris and the senate candidates. NC/GA don’t. 

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6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

This is some Qanon shit, and I do mean it's literally Qanon - they've talked a lot about body doubles and swapping out politicians and who is really in the WH.

When did they give up on the certainty that Trump was actually running the country and only weeks away from returning to the White House?

Of all the predictions about the impact of the internet years ago, I don't recall anyone warning about massive cults. It was the information superhighway and we were all going to be learning great things via this newly available medium. I guess we can just add a "dis" in front of that name and it's perfect.

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1 hour ago, Pimphand said:

Pretty funny global market circuit breakers triggering which is a direct result of the runaway lunacy of the shitbag democrats and y'all are still over here in the corner stroking your flaccid micropeens about the dumbest presidential candidate to ever run.

Enjoy the CBDC, UBI, and social credit prison your stupidity help construct as they strip all your financial assets away.

image.png.66e20bf27530efeb6e3f4bf472c47482.png

Hopefully next time you get reincarnated you won't be so gullible.

 

What the fuck is wrong with you? PM Derka for mental health facility reviews.

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I'm very gruntled by the facts that Trump is terrified of appearing in public now and that the GOP's entire GOTV operation is to give Charlie Kirk $150 mil and let him figure it out. Maybe it doesn't happen, but it's definitely easy right now to see how his own base's excitement begins to wane this fall as Harris continues to pick up momentum and his actual election day turnout just completely collapses.

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1 minute ago, DaysOff said:

 

What the fuck is wrong with you? PM Derka for mental health facility reviews.

I'm not even sure what he means by CBDC and I tend to be pretty attuned to their lunacy. I suspect it has strong cuckoldry vibes though.

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Just now, wildcat09 said:

I'm very gruntled by the facts that Trump is terrified of appearing in public now and that the GOP's entire GOTV operation is to give Charlie Kirk $150 mil and let him figure it out. Maybe it doesn't happen, but it's definitely easy right now to see how his own base's excitement begins to wane this fall as Harris continues to pick up momentum and his actual election day turnout just completely collapses.

Enthusiasm for trump is not great right now. As stated here, lots of people who had signs and flags up even earlier this summer have them down. That's not to say they won't vote or favor him anymore, but the enthusiasm in deep red Texas is waning. 

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1 hour ago, Pimphand said:

Pretty funny global market circuit breakers triggering which is a direct result of the runaway lunacy of the shitbag democrats and y'all are still over here in the corner stroking your flaccid micropeens about the dumbest presidential candidate to ever run.

Enjoy the CBDC, UBI, and social credit prison your stupidity help construct as they strip all your financial assets away.

image.png.66e20bf27530efeb6e3f4bf472c47482.png

Hopefully next time you get reincarnated you won't be so gullible.

My micropeen is not flaccid, I'll have you know.

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4 minutes ago, immamac said:

Enthusiasm for trump is not great right now. As stated here, lots of people who had signs and flags up even earlier this summer have them down. That's not to say they won't vote or favor him anymore, but the enthusiasm in deep red Texas is waning. 

Man near where I live there's a shitty MAGA business that lines the I-10 feeder road with signs, and they all have "Biden THIS!" "Biden THAT!" and it warms my heart lol. I don't think they're really able to de-select the target that they've already locked on and so they're starting from scratch with Kamala and defaulting to racist attacks.

I certainly know of a bunch of idiot boomers that are still "trump is who Jesus would vote for!!!" because I have an unfortunate amount of family that's still deep in the SBC, but they've been having a hard time with answering why they think a criminally fraudulent rapist is the """christian vote"""

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2 hours ago, Pimphand said:

Pretty funny global market circuit breakers triggering which is a direct result of the runaway lunacy of the shitbag democrats and y'all are still over here in the corner stroking your flaccid micropeens about the dumbest presidential candidate to ever run.

Enjoy the CBDC, UBI, and social credit prison your stupidity help construct as they strip all your financial assets away.

image.png.66e20bf27530efeb6e3f4bf472c47482.png

Hopefully next time you get reincarnated you won't be so gullible.


 

I read this like the Qanon Shaman was narrating

 

 

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6 minutes ago, immamac said:

This will become the norm. There's another decent surge coming from DNC official nomination and the Obama's getting out there. 

Getting back to even was huge, now it's time to keep going and push trump down to low 40s high 30s. 

Every poll showing him losing is going to damage his fragile psyche. He’s going to flail and lash out as it slips away from him 

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25 minutes ago, immamac said:

Enthusiasm for trump is not great right now. As stated here, lots of people who had signs and flags up even earlier this summer have them down. That's not to say they won't vote or favor him anymore, but the enthusiasm in deep red Texas is waning. 

They're front running pussies.

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53 minutes ago, Js1 said:

As the poll of Latino voters shows, she has a lot more upside - her favorability with women, black voters, Latino voters and younger voters give her the edge

Some of those demographics have more leverage than others, though.  Take Latinos -- there are 59M Latinos in the US.  Where are they?  What impact might they have on the electoral college?  Increased turnout sure isn't going to matter in California or New York.  Texas and Florida?  Doubtful.  Those 4 states alone render 61% of the Latino voting block fairly unable to move the needle.  Add in Illinois, New Jersey, Colorado, New Mexico . . . I don't see much upside in that group.

Obviously, women and young voters are spread more evenly across the country.  Anyway, just a theory, I'm no pol.

Top 10 states by Latino population:

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2 hours ago, Pimphand said:

Pretty funny global market circuit breakers triggering which is a direct result of the runaway lunacy of the shitbag democrats and y'all are still over here in the corner stroking your flaccid micropeens about the dumbest presidential candidate to ever run.

Enjoy the CBDC, UBI, and social credit prison your stupidity help construct as they strip all your financial assets away.

image.png.66e20bf27530efeb6e3f4bf472c47482.png

Hopefully next time you get reincarnated you won't be so gullible.



Here is your reminder that the DOW saw a 38% crash with Donald Trump as president.
 

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4 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

This is probably true.  But the worst form of the cancer that will linger is the P2025, christofascist authoritarianism.  But they won't be able to hide the latter behind the dumbass appeal of Trump and MAGA.  They'll actually have to try to sell it on its merits.

Both ends of it are going to be ineffectual, as far as winning the national election.

We're gonna have our hands full for a while in Texas, though.

Defeating Trump is a good step, but we still have the malignancy of a large part of the electorate. Most of the people who became Trumpists were already GOP. Trump just showed up and said the quiet part out loud and seized the reins of the hate engine. That engine won't sink into the sea with Trump.

 

2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

She running commercials in Texas. When is the last time a Democrat presidential candidate did that?

Using the word Democrat instead of Democratic started off as the GOP's version of tu. Have times changed so that everybody uses that form? 

 

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Glad to see we are the GOP coping stage of "campaign releases to the media unskewing the polls" and "VP picks don't actually matter"  

President Vance. President Vance at NATO. President Vance speaking to the nation from the Oval Office at a time of crisis or tragedy. It's a worse vision than President Palin...well, probably.

I don't presume to explain things to you as you're clearly expert. Vance and Palin demonstrate what I believe to be the only possible impact of a VP choice is making a dreadful decision. People should be able to imagine the choice as a sufficient president and then forget about him/her. No real impact.

If you have a clown waving pom-poms and shitting his pants, that's a concern and the VP choice will not fade to its usual obscurity. That's my observation over the years, anyway.

 

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

IMO this will cause a flip because reasons you cited. They'll see they can win with more democrat type backing and middle ground voters over the ever drifting right MAGA fuck faces. I said like 4-5 years ago the MAGA crowd will eventually go so far right they'll alienate themselves and ultimately create a smaller voter base just by attrition alone. Attacking your own party members because they're not rank and filing is the easiest way for that to happen.

All they need for party control is a majority of the GOP. Ever since Nixon, there have been about 25% of the GOP as dead-enders. Nixon left office with 24% support. They've been weaponized. They won't dissolve. They may find another guru as yet unidentified who is more adept than Trump. It's not going to be over for a long time.

At least the prospect of this deplorable part of the citizenry just gliding in for the kill is now set aside. Viva la resistencia!

 

41 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This has been my assumption as well.

  • Harris should sustain her 2 week rollout bump, VP bump and convention bump + debate bump (if it happens) / some likelihood of a solo townhall if the debate doesn't happen - think we could settle into a Harris +4-5 by end of September with good sized leads in PA/MI/WI/NV and tossups in GA/AZ/NC
  • As the poll of Latino voters shows, she has a lot more upside - her favorability with women, black voters, Latino voters and younger voters give her the edge

Still feels to me that Harris' likely EV win is between 276 (PA/MI/WI/NV) and 319 (+AZ/NC/GA).  Even if its 276, I would think her wins in the blue wall + NV will be strong enough to be seen as "untainted" by everyone but MAGA and her losses in AZ/NC/GA would be miniscule. 

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4 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

Where are they?  What impact might they have on the electoral college? 

Well NV, Arizona and Georgia are important. NV is not a populated state but even a small shift can impact in a state that is normally pretty close. Same with AZ and GA. Some of these states will be 2 points or less and even her doing 1-2% better than Biden did will make her chances of winning easier

Also 100% matters - if she does better with them, better chance of picking off some CA house seats and holding onto the RGV seats 

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3 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

I don't presume to explain things to you as you're clearly expert. Vance and Palin demonstrate what I believe to be the only possible impact of a VP choice is making a dreadful decision.

Well yeah. That’s why Trump’s campaign is downplaying the importance. 

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6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Every poll showing him losing is going to damage his fragile psyche. He’s going to flail and lash out as it slips away from him 

He is obsessed with ratings. He'll go nuts denying the results of all polls leading to the election. He will lapse into repetitive gibberish about how wronged he is and everybody else is a bad guy.

He'll exit as a clown. Sadly, he'll never accept it. He'll keep milking the cult hopefully from a cell in the psych ward of a federal prison.

8 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

They're front running pussies.

Excellent.

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3 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Defeating Trump is a good step, but we still have the malignancy of a large part of the electorate. Most of the people who became Trumpists were already GOP. Trump just showed up and said the quiet part out loud and seized the reins of the hate engine. That engine won't sink into the sea with Trump.

 

Agreed. And you've got to remember that these are just simple farmers. These are people of the land. The common clay of the new West. You know .... Aggies.  

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well NV, Arizona and Georgia are important.

Sure, she has to keep them.  I'm just thinking out loud about how she should target various demographics.  If say 2/3 of the targeted group can't effect change, it's worth considering given somewhat limited resources.

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Hospitality union is committed to knocking on 3.3 million doors in swing states for Harris

Our ground game will be much better in 2024. 2020 was just bad bc of COVID

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42 minutes ago, immamac said:

Enthusiasm for trump is not great right now. As stated here, lots of people who had signs and flags up even earlier this summer have them down. That's not to say they won't vote or favor him anymore, but the enthusiasm in deep red Texas is waning. 

My wife and made a note to look for Trump signs driving through the Park Cities this weekend and we didn't see a single one. Of course we were on more of the major roads like Mockingbird or Lovers where the "poor" Parkies live so ...

We are over by Love Field and there is one house with Trump signs on our entire daily 2+ mile walk route. Zero Biden or Harris signs.

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I live in one of about 8 districts that has a dem in the state legislature and a trump flag went up around the corner. Pretty disheartening, but i posted in 2020 after Biden won, a bunch of American flags went up on my street the following day, including my house. But in general, it really does feel that the full maga movement is far more muted this time around.

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45 minutes ago, Captainant said:

Man near where I live there's a shitty MAGA business that lines the I-10 feeder road with signs, and they all have "Biden THIS!" "Biden THAT!" and it warms my heart lol. I don't think they're really able to de-select the target that they've already locked on and so they're starting from scratch with Kamala and defaulting to racist attacks.

I certainly know of a bunch of idiot boomers that are still "trump is who Jesus would vote for!!!" because I have an unfortunate amount of family that's still deep in the SBC, but they've been having a hard time with answering why they think a criminally fraudulent rapist is the """christian vote"""

This shit never makes sense to me. How fucking stupid do you have to be to potentially aliente potential customers? There's a restaurant by our house, with mediocre food, but a huge outdoor space and playground that is good for kids. There aren't a lot of places like there in my area of Houston, so we frequented for awhile. Up until the time they started posting MAGA bullshit on their marquee sign. Never went again. And I know I'm not the only person. It's just fucking stupid. 
 

10 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

What would a Collin, Montgomery, and maybe even Denton county flip mean in terms of the state?

That...will never fucking happen. 

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11 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

What would a Collin, Montgomery, and maybe even Denton county flip mean in terms of the state?

As a resident of Collin County, if it were to flip the whole damn state is flipping. Collin is still quite Trumpy/Maga.

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1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

This shit never makes sense to me. How fucking stupid do you have to be to potentially aliente potential customers? There's a restaurant by our house, with mediocre food, but a huge outdoor space and playground that is good for kids. There aren't a lot of places like there in my area of Houston, so we frequented for awhile. Up until the time they started posting MAGA bullshit on their marquee sign. Never went again. And I know I'm not the only person. It's just fucking stupid. 
 

That...will never fucking happen. 

Even with all the growth coming into that county? I assume it's gerrymandered to shit? I don't know enough about that area.

1 minute ago, Hawndoh said:

As a resident of Collin County, if it were to flip the whole damn state is flipping. Collin is still quite Trumpy/Maga.

Yeah it is the closest of the big counties I listed to flipping....within 4-5% at least in the 2020 election 

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12 minutes ago, C-Man said:

My wife and made a note to look for Trump signs driving through the Park Cities this weekend and we didn't see a single one. Of course we were on more of the major roads like Mockingbird or Lovers where the "poor" Parkies live so ...

We are over by Love Field and there is one house with Trump signs on our entire daily 2+ mile walk route. Zero Biden or Harris signs.

i live in the darkest blue 2020 precinct in central texas and there is currently one harris sign.

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