2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Fudge Nuggets 19227]

1 hour ago, shakahorn said:

I don't disagree with showing them some love but send Walz instead.  He would kill it in those states.

NH?  He'd fit right in there. 

Best as I can tell the Native Americans in MN respect him and after all, his moving up is the reason why MN will have the first Native American gov ever.

They have raised eleventeen bazillion dollars in a month, pretty sure both can spend a couple of hours in NH.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20516]

How Trump plans to steal this election. Pretty good article.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/12/trump-overturn-result-presidential-election-vote

 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13528]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Wouldn’t they bill the private venue for such an event?  

Unsure. If Trump wants to use a large arena, the arena could easily require full payment or at least a down payment. This is why Trump prefers to find a MAGA business owner with a large property to hold the events. He most likely pays nothing and strong arms the business owner to pay for the setup.

I still could see the local law enforcement having a duty to assist even if Trump owes them $$. Law enforcement doesn't want the optics of a shot ex-President or a riot occurring in their area while they're sitting back at the station doing nothing.

However past unpaid bills could keep Trump away as it draws attention to him being a deadbeat.

 

[Willfully Horn 8057]

58 minutes ago, nbmishoid said:

When I first voted, as a UT freshman (for McGovern/contra Nixon), I think Texas had 28 EV’s.  Too many assholes have moved there, apparently.   This just couldn’t be home grown Nazi shit.

 

30 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Exhibits a) Cruz, Raphael “Ted” and b) Goeb, Daniel Patrick 

[kevwun 15935]

6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Unsure. If Trump wants to use a large arena, the arena could easily require full payment or at least a down payment. This is why Trump prefers to find a MAGA business owner with a large property to hold the events. He most likely pays nothing and strong arms the business owner to pay for the setup.

I still could see the local law enforcement having a duty to assist even if Trump owes them $$. Law enforcement doesn't want the optics of a shot ex-President or a riot occurring in their area while they're sitting back at the station doing nothing.

However past unpaid bills could keep Trump away as it draws attention to him being a deadbeat.

 

Yeah, they can't refuse to help.  At the very least, they have to help with security from the airport to the venue and that by itself is a big manpower commitment.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13528]

9 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

How Trump plans to steal this election. Pretty good article.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/aug/12/trump-overturn-result-presidential-election-vote

 

Trump's plan is relatively simple, and I imagine that it's fully prepared by some.

• Create enough confusion to give the GOP in Congress to ultimately refuse to certify. 
• Ask the Supreme Court to decide on the certification status.
• Plan 1 - The Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump for winning, bypassing all vote counts.
• Plan 2 - The Supreme Court rules that the election is voided, giving the power to the House to decide. As of today, Trump would win that vote.

Another scary aspect is that the Speaker could temporarily become President while waiting for a decision. The Constitution wouldn't let Biden hang around waiting for an outcome.

[Js1 85607]

35 minutes ago, Mdhorn said:

Turnip is losing his talking points.  Two of his 2020 rigged election analysis points were that one, Biden didn't have as big of crowds as he did and everybody saw, and two, all the polls had him up. Turnip losing to a black woman is the cherry on top.  

They had a whole plan to run against Biden and then banked on Harris picking Shapiro. How long until Trump starts ranting about the Biden/Shapiro ticket?

[South Austin 52632]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump's plan is relatively simple, and I imagine that it's fully prepared by some.

• Create enough confusion to give the GOP in Congress to ultimately refuse to certify. 
• Ask the Supreme Court to decide on the certification status.
• Plan 1 - The Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump for winning, bypassing all vote counts.
• Plan 2 - The Supreme Court rules that the election is voided, giving the power to the House to decide. As of today, Trump would win that vote.

Another scary aspect is that the Speaker could temporarily become President while waiting for a decision. The Constitution wouldn't let Biden hang around waiting for an outcome.

[Biff Tannen 45750]

3 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump's plan is relatively simple, and I imagine that it's fully prepared by some.

• Create enough confusion to give the GOP in Congress to ultimately refuse to certify. 
• Ask the Supreme Court to decide on the certification status.
• Plan 1 - The Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump for winning, bypassing all vote counts.
• Plan 2 - The Supreme Court rules that the election is voided, giving the power to the House to decide. As of today, Trump would win that vote.

Another scary aspect is that the Speaker could temporarily become President while waiting for a decision. The Constitution wouldn't let Biden hang around waiting for an outcome.

This will be the biggest FAFO moment if it comes to pass.

[SydneyCarton 48208]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

even losing NV and AZ are ok as long as Harris sweeps the great lakes and omaha. 

 

 

Didn't Nebraska have some law or amendment that was going to be voted on this fall to remove their electoral split before the 2024 election?

[Js1 85607]

6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump's plan is relatively simple, and I imagine that it's fully prepared by some.

• Create enough confusion to give the GOP in Congress to ultimately refuse to certify. 
• Ask the Supreme Court to decide on the certification status.
• Plan 1 - The Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump for winning, bypassing all vote counts.
• Plan 2 - The Supreme Court rules that the election is voided, giving the power to the House to decide. As of today, Trump would win that vote.

Another scary aspect is that the Speaker could temporarily become President while waiting for a decision. The Constitution wouldn't let Biden hang around waiting for an outcome.

• Secretaries of State in NV, AZ, MI, PA, WI will sue to force certification.  This happened in both 2020 and 2022 and state supreme courts forced the counties to certify, including in GA, Michigan and AZ. 
• Any attempt to appeal to SCOTUS has to be done by Trump - all challenges first go to a three judge panel, then to SCOTUS on appeal.   All legal challenges must be expedited, per the Electoral Count Reform Act, to ensure all challenges are resolved in time to certify and count electoral votes.
• Michigan already passed a law that county authorities have to certify within a certain timeframe or it gets sent to the Dem SOS office to certify, at cost to the county/counties that refuse to certify.

The two county officials in Arizona that refused to certify (with no evidence) are already facing criminal charges. FAFO. 

Edited August 12 by Js1

[dcbc 14536]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Can we get an Olympics for Harris call? Lebron, Curry, Biles, Lyles, etc?  

It’s a Harris win!!! 

Betting the kids' college fund on it.  Helobious lock

[Js1 85607]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Didn't Nebraska have some law or amendment that was going to be voted on this fall to remove their electoral split before the 2024 election?

It failed to pass before they adjourned. 

[Chopper 17290]

3 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Trying to find hopeful information that polling is more accurate this year.  Axios points out that the very fact that Trump was leading in so many of the polls up to now might be evidence of that.

 

https://www.axios.com/2024/06/15/2024-election-polls-trump-biden

 

I've read the following advice from more than one statistics or econ prof. It was also stated in the Vanderbilt study linked by Axios:

"Readers should take the margin of error stated on the poll, double it, and see whether the difference between the two candidates is within the doubled margin of error. If it is, then it is hard to conclude which candidate is actually ahead in the race."

One big reason is the incredible number of people who do not respond to polls. For example, in the NYT/Siena polls about MI, PA and WI just published the other day, to generate a response from ~1,800 voters, they had to call ~118,000 voters and make 237,000 total telephone calls. The Siena poll is noteworthy for posting their nonresponse rate. The huge number of "nonresponse voters" is not accounted for by the margin of error statistic. 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited August 12 by Chopper

[Bateshorn 9942]

11 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump's plan is relatively simple, and I imagine that it's fully prepared by some.

• Create enough confusion to give the GOP in Congress to ultimately refuse to certify. 
• Ask the Supreme Court to decide on the certification status.
• Plan 1 - The Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump for winning, bypassing all vote counts.
• Plan 2 - The Supreme Court rules that the election is voided, giving the power to the House to decide. As of today, Trump would win that vote.

Another scary aspect is that the Speaker could temporarily become President while waiting for a decision. The Constitution wouldn't let Biden hang around waiting for an outcome.

The new Congress is sworn in on January 3. So if the Dems win control and their is a contested election, then in theory Jefferies would become acting president.  But the Presidential Succession Act is a hot mess constitutionally, so the Supreme Court could rule both the Speaker and President Pro Tempore ineligible and it would fall to.....Anthony Blinken, if he had not resigned as Secretary of State, since cabinet officials don't technically lose their job at noon on inauguration, but rather by tradition resign (in lieu of being fired). 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13528]

Critical that Dems get out the vote for House races to limit shenanigans in congressional certifications for the Presidency. Dems only need to flip 5 seats to take the majority.  I believe Alabama and Louisiana have new districts that most likely will flip Democrat. GA, SC, OH and NY are in battles with the court to redraw the districts that could also add to the Dem totals but I'm unsure if they will get resolved soon.

If Texas had a Democrat party, they could be fighting hard for the districts on the southern border. Either to flip them blue and prevent the opposite. Crazy to me that Brownsville has consistently voted republican as of late. It wouldn't shock me if the Republicans took another border district this year with immigration fears and lies about Harris shutting off all the oil wells.

[Ted Lange 16144]

Trump is back posting on Twitter for the first time since getting the boot in Jan of 2021

[Firemans4Horn 18127]

1 minute ago, Ted Lange said:

Trump is back posting on Twitter for the first time since getting the boot in Jan of 2021

Good. More people can see how batshit crazy he is these days. The more people see of Trump (post 2016) the less they like him. 

['stache 21892]

25 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump's plan is relatively simple, and I imagine that it's fully prepared by some.

• Create enough confusion to give the GOP in Congress to ultimately refuse to certify. 
• Ask the Supreme Court to decide on the certification status.
• Plan 1 - The Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump for winning, bypassing all vote counts.
• Plan 2 - The Supreme Court rules that the election is voided, giving the power to the House to decide. As of today, Trump would win that vote.

Another scary aspect is that the Speaker could temporarily become President while waiting for a decision. The Constitution wouldn't let Biden hang around waiting for an outcome.

The biggest difference is that trump does not currently occupy the white house. The republican house is also a very narrow margin and I don't see all of them going along with this, just need a handful to not agree. Even this SCOTUS wouldn't go this far (not the majority at least). Fake electors are going to jail and more cases are pending. I just don't see it playing out like last time, or even close. A blowout electoral victory would be icing on the cake if at all possible. Just win baby.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13528]

6 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

Trump is back posting on Twitter for the first time since getting the boot in Jan of 2021

He's scared if he's willing to dump his exclusivity with Trump Social or whatever it's called. Let's see if he trip back to Twitter is short lived just due to his talk with Elon today.

[Ted Lange 16144]

Cross post

 

 

[Jiggy-Z 3437]

2 hours ago, DixonHur said:

I thought greasers were Italians, and Hispanics were beaners.  

We really need to align our pejoratives.

Damn them all and their thick lustrous Breck girl hair.

[Js1 85607]

17 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Critical that Dems get out the vote for House races to limit shenanigans in congressional certifications for the Presidency. Dems only need to flip 5 seats to take the majority.  I believe Alabama and Louisiana have new districts that most likely will flip Democrat. GA, SC, OH and NY are in battles with the court to redraw the districts that could also add to the Dem totals but I'm unsure if they will get resolved soon.

 

Not just recapturing the House, but remember that each House delegation votes as a bloc if no one gets 270.  Someone like Peltola is a vote on her own, she is the entire Alaska House delegation.  

But I don't think everyone's fear is going to happen.  This will be resolved before mid-December and Harris will win by enough EVs to make it moot.  Even if GA or AZ won't certify (which they eventually will), she still wins 276-235 with 27 holdouts.  Nevada and the Blue Wall states will all certify, because they have Dem SOS or Dem courts to back them up. 

[Pato del Muerto 52618]

21 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Critical that Dems get out the vote for House races to limit shenanigans in congressional certifications for the Presidency. Dems only need to flip 5 seats to take the majority.  I believe Alabama and Louisiana have new districts that most likely will flip Democrat. GA, SC, OH and NY are in battles with the court to redraw the districts that could also add to the Dem totals but I'm unsure if they will get resolved soon.

If Texas had a Democrat party, they could be fighting hard for the districts on the southern border. Either to flip them blue and prevent the opposite. Crazy to me that Brownsville has consistently voted republican as of late. It wouldn't shock me if the Republicans took another border district this year with immigration fears and lies about Harris shutting off all the oil wells.

What makes you think they won’t challenge any race they need to in order to execute their plan?

[Tuco 5084]

It failed to pass before they adjourned. 

This, despite the Republicans having a filibuster proof majority. Too many Omahan Republicans want to be relevant nationally. It may be last bastion of local political interests outweighing national party goals.
But the redistricting after 2020 moved it a few points red. Still doable with a Biden 2020 vote, but more challenging.

[royiv 9378]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not just recapturing the House, but remember that each House delegation votes as a bloc if no one gets 270.  Someone like Peltola is a vote on her own, she is the entire Alaska House delegation.  

But I don't think everyone's fear is going to happen.  This will be resolved before mid-December and Harris will win by enough EVs to make it moot.  Even if GA or AZ won't certify (which they eventually will), she still wins 276-235 with 27 holdouts.  Nevada and the Blue Wall states will all certify, because they have Dem SOS or Dem courts to back them up. 

Why wouldn’t AZ certify? They have a D SOS.

[wildcat09 29425]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not just recapturing the House, but remember that each House delegation votes as a bloc if no one gets 270.  Someone like Peltola is a vote on her own, she is the entire Alaska House delegation.  

But I don't think everyone's fear is going to happen.  This will be resolved before mid-December and Harris will win by enough EVs to make it moot.  Even if GA or AZ won't certify (which they eventually will), she still wins 276-235 with 27 holdouts.  Nevada and the Blue Wall states will all certify, because they have Dem SOS or Dem courts to back them up. 

Mostly agree with this, though I worry that if GA and AZ hold out and a blue wall state is close, SCOTUS will be very tempted to try to figure out a way to steal it.  

[Js1 85607]

2 minutes ago, royiv said:

Why wouldn’t AZ certify? They have a D SOS.

Everyone is so concerned about them and Georgia. I personally think both will end up certifying and none of these doomsday scenarios will come to pass.

This reminds me so much of the “polls don’t matter, go vote!” It’s a scare tactic. The Republicans had more infrastructure in place in 2020 and could not pull it off.

Edited August 12 by Js1

[Chopper 17290]

She was really bombed,
And I was really blown away,
Until I asked her what she wanted,
And this is what she had to say:
A pearl necklace.

Edited August 12 by Chopper

[HenryJames 66189]

2 hours ago, DixonHur said:

I thought greasers were Italians, and Hispanics were beaners.  

We really need to align our pejoratives.

Greasers are white trash with long, greasy hair.

A soc is white trash with mustangs and madras.

[BurntOrange&White 40047]

31 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Good. More people can see how batshit crazy he is these days. The more people see of Trump (post 2016) the less they like him. 

Unfortunately you haven't seen what Twitter is these days, have you?

[Thatguy 8891]

1 hour ago, 'stache said:

I'm going to need help with this one. I know that he's doing everything he can to personally benefit as much as possible from campaign fundraising, but their reported funds are well into nine figures, and it seems his personal enrichment would be less from reported fundraising and more from Egypt, Russia, and other ways that aren't part of public records. If these bills were really a problem, it seems they could pay them pretty easily out of official campaign funds, or if other cities are using this to say no, prepay those cities for the rest of this cycle. The fact that Vance is on the trail confirms this in my mind, because wouldn't this be an issue for his appearances too?

I think Trump's lack of campaigning is more about him being a fat unhealthy dementia riddled old fuck whose mental health is reeling after thinking he had a slam dunk and is now getting his ass spanked by a Black woman while his VP pick is being roasted nonstop and appears to be disliked even by many republicans. He also knows that his crowds have not been anywhere close to as big as Kamala's, and that appears to be some type of OCD topic for him and he'd rather rage tweet (truth whatever) from the shitter with bs about ai and actors to maintain the appearance of popularity. I don't think his ego can handle any more small crowds with the media constantly making comparisons to Harris/Walz's packed houses. 

Bro he is saving his money for all the legal wars he is going to wage to try to steal the election when he loses. Simple as that. IMO, that is also why he isn't campaigning.

[DixonHur 11395]

nm

Edited August 12 by DixonHur

[Gatorubet 30323]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

The optics of Harris/Walz pulling bigger (and more enthusiastic) crowds makes him look bad and hurts his pride in a big way. That crazy suggestion that Kamala's crowds were "AI generated" was a pretty big tell IMHO.

There is a post up-thread with a quoted source saying Trump is losing his shit about the large crowds and enthusiastic response for Harris, which are greater than his.  

I agree that the deranged suggestion that all those people were AI and paid actors is absolutely Trump blurting out his anger because he knows the truth, and therefore must hear himself lying about the subject in order to process the bad news. 

Also, somewhere on this site, there was a post that said that Harris has a Truth Social account where she constantly posts pictures of her huge crowds and how many people attend - just to fuck with the man child’s fragile psyche and keep him fixated on, and therefore saying deranged things, that won’t help his campaign.

The greatest thing we have going for us is that Trump has no governor - and he allows nobody else to govern his moronic impulses when he is spun up.   IOW, we need more laughter, more ridicule, more of ‘those guys are weird’, more Trump is demented, more Trump is old - and a lot more Trump is too poor to pay his debts on the campaign because he is funneling the money to his personal legal defenses for crimes he absolutely committed.

[Js1 85607]

Not ranked by 538 but just throw it on the pile - we know who has the momentum 

 

[Pancho 45070]

57 minutes ago, Js1 said:

• Secretaries of State in NV, AZ, MI, PA, WI will sue to force certification.  This happened in both 2020 and 2022 and state supreme courts forced the counties to certify, including in GA, Michigan and AZ. 
• Any attempt to appeal to SCOTUS has to be done by Trump - all challenges first go to a three judge panel, then to SCOTUS on appeal.   All legal challenges must be expedited, per the Electoral Count Reform Act, to ensure all challenges are resolved in time to certify and count electoral votes.
• Michigan already passed a law that county authorities have to certify within a certain timeframe or it gets sent to the Dem SOS office to certify, at cost to the county/counties that refuse to certify.

The two county officials in Arizona that refused to certify (with no evidence) are already facing criminal charges. FAFO. 

 

And this guy is on our side:

 

[Tuco 5084]

The greatest thing we have going for us is that Trump has no governor - and he allows nobody else to govern his moronic impulses when he is spun up.   IOW, we need more laughter, more ridicule, more of ‘those guys are weird’, more Trump is demented, more Trump is old - and a lot more Trump is too poor to pay his debts on the campaign because he is funneling the money to his personal legal defenses for crimes he absolutely committed.

In Bradbury’s Something Wicked This Way Comes, they defeat evil by laughing at it. This campaign keeps reminding me of that book.

[Michael Knight 12995]

3 hours ago, DixonHur said:

I thought greasers were Italians, and Hispanics were beaners.  

We really need to align our pejoratives.

You're thinking of dago guinea wop greaseball goombahs

[DigglerontheHoof 21257]

2 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

You're thinking of dago guinea wop greaseball goombahs

Just one second my kraut, mick friend.

[Bozo_Casanova 26579]

36 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

A soc is white trash with mustangs and madras.

I feel attacked

[Pato del Muerto 52618]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I feel attacked

Just stay golden

[Bozo_Casanova 26579]

1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

Trump is back posting on Twitter for the first time since getting the boot in Jan of 2021

 

[chainsaw 9878]

12 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Just one second my kraut, mick friend.

 

[The Dog 44162]

1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

Trump is back posting on Twitter for the first time since getting the boot in Jan of 2021

and already getting community noted for his lies - it was there but looks like Elmo removed it.

[HenryJames 66189]

6 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

[WBT 20675]

23 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Just one second my kraut, mick friend.

Khartoooooooom!

[WhatTheBuck 28808]

1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

Trump is back posting on Twitter for the first time since getting the boot in Jan of 2021

You didn’t think Elon was “interviewing” him for nothing, did you?

[SubliminalHorn 6811]

49 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

And this guy is on our side:

 

Yeah he’s cute but are we really trusting a dog to fight voter suppression?

[Pato del Muerto 52618]

Who’s a good civil rights attorney?

['stache 21892]

So he’s really going back on Twitter? Let me guess, all comments will be heavily restricted, mushroom lickers only. 
 

I had to sign up again to follow some drama involving a client. It was the only way I could see commentary on the situation we’re involved with. I absolutely hate it, when will it just fucking die already!