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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Goredho

Goredho 17510

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, DixonHur said:

I know that Vance isn't a great replacement, but just from a procedural standpoint, can the GOP remove Trump from the ticket after he's been nominated?

IE if he is deemed to have severe cognitive decline since the convention?

Not asking if it would, or should happen, just trying to understand if it's even possible.

 

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

My conspiracy theory is that they are riding Trump's pull with MAGA to get the win then they'll use the 25th amendment to replace him with Vance after the inauguration. 

Then Vance can implement Project 2025.

 

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

MAGA.  They would see it as a sign of The Deep State.  If they show up to vote at all, it’ll be for RFK, or possibly even Harris as a fuck you to the GOP.

Hell, they will just write him in.

 

38 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

I'm pretty confident that Trump could voluntarily step down if he wanted to. But I don't think there is a way for the party to make him do that at this point.

 

36 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Yeah, but Trump voters see him as Dear Leader. If the party removes him, they will lose the only people still voting for them.

 

37 minutes ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:


Trump yes men see Trump as a means to an end. They're not wedded to him personally. If they see Vance as a much younger, more focused, more energetic way to get what they want. they'll dump Trump in a heartbeat.

If we are going to go full machiavellian conspiracy theory, the play would be for these people to arrange for Trump to be assassinated and then proclaim it was Kamala and have that reinforced by the conservative information machine.  They don't have to deal with the Trump albatross, they don't have to convince a malignant narcissist to suddenly think of someone other than themselves and most/all of Trump's thrall over the MAGA base would transfer to Vance in their outrage over dear leader being assassinated.  Vance could nominate Nikki Haley and the R ticket would be a lot more palatable to centrists.  Then if/when they win the election, the outrage over Trump's assassination by democrats would "justify" project 2025 and worse.

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Surly Bevo

Surly Bevo 25506

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If we are going to go full machiavellian conspiracy theory, the play would be for these people to arrange for Trump to be assassinated and then proclaim it was Kamala and have that reinforced by the conservative information machine.  They don't have to deal with the Trump albatross, they don't have to convince a malignant narcissist to suddenly think of someone other than themselves and most/all of Trump's thrall over the MAGA base would transfer to Vance in their outrage over dear leader being assassinated.  Vance could nominate Nikki Haley and the R ticket would be a lot more palatable to centrists.  Then if/when they win the election, the outrage over Trump's assassination by democrats would "justify" project 2025 and worse.

So the Clone Wars?

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Cairn Horn88

Cairn Horn88 8434

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2 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

There's something else I don't know much about. I was wondering last night if Musk has lost that seemingly huge number of people that sorta worshipped him (overstatement, but you know what I mean). I guess I should say to what extent. I know he's grown unpopular after taking over Twitter. 

What is the status of his large following?

Musk, several years ago, came to the proverbial fork in the road….and chose poorly.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48298

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32 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:


Terminally online weirdos. 

If only. 

4 minutes ago, bluto said:

That Texas poll seems a bit junky, was heavy dem lean. Trump will win Tx by just as much if not more than 20. 

You think Trump wins Texas by 20? Am I understanding that correctly? The state he only won by 5.5% last time? 

Trump is going to win Texas, he's just going to win Texas by  3%, imo. 

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Js1

Js1 85744

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5 minutes ago, bluto said:

That Texas poll seems a bit junky, was heavy dem lean. Trump will win Tx by just as much if not more than 20. 

That poll had 46% of the respondents with a bachelor’s and they were +22 Trump?

Thats wholly unrealistic 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17807

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7 minutes ago, bluto said:

That Texas poll seems a bit junky, was heavy dem lean. Trump will win Tx by just as much if not more than 20. 

That's literally the same percentage as the poll--~6% (53-47 in the poll and 52-46 in 2020). 

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Js1

Js1 85744

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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

If only. 

You think Trump wins Texas by 20? Am I understanding that correctly? The state he only won by 5.5% last time? 

Trump is going to win Texas, he's just going to win Texas by  3%, imo. 

No he means 2020. Not 20 points lol

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Cairn Horn88

Cairn Horn88 8434

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2 hours ago, immamac said:

This isn't that crazy of a number from an impressions perspective. 

Let's say 20M people heard or saw parts. That's only 50 impressions per person, I'd say everyone in this thread has been exposed and counts for at least 2-3k impressions on it since yesterday. Anyone paying attention to it will see 50 pieces of content related to it via news, posts, mentions or actual tweets. 

There’s quantity and quality….it was an awful display of total bullshit, filled with false statements….just like his stump speeches.  Some folks listened out of curiosity, but from all accounts…it was quite the shirt show.   Musk just wanted the touches, same as Trump… seriously doubt it had any positive upside, long term for Trump.

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Satchel

Satchel 6949

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38 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Abortion issue added to the Missouri ballot in November. Doubt it'll make a difference in the presidential race here, but can't hurt. 

I think it will make the difference in Arizona, however.

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 30072

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1 hour ago, immamac said:

dude maybe there's something wrong with me but that's just how I think spaces sound on twitter. The audio processing is just different it's why musks voice sounds strange too.

For what it's worth, I agree with immamac. I turned it on to hear obvious lisp and slurring, but Trump sounded about the same as usual with poorer sound quality. It's not rare for him to slur going all the back to the Unied Shtase of Uhmerica.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 48298

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3 minutes ago, bluto said:

IMG_6533.thumb.png.3c8b6706b2ee0cfbd72fc4d9fad4d5b2.pnghere’s the cross tabs on that Texas poll, it’s non sense. Trump will roll by 8 along with Cruz. 

I do'nt think Trump beats his last performance in Texas. Honestly, I'm not sure he beats his last performance in any state. He still might win, though. 

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bluto

bluto 4947

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The influx of red loonies to this state since/because of covid has been insane. Every statewide race in 22 cycle was R by double digit, including Abbott over Beto and even Paxton romping. Roll that into the current border issues with abbotts actions and approval rating, zero down ballot excitement, and voting restrictions… Trump will outperform his ‘20 margin of 5.58%. First to PM me has a $50 wager on it. 

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Post Oak

Post Oak 20327

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50 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

If only. 

You think Trump wins Texas by 20? Am I understanding that correctly? The state he only won by 5.5% last time? 

Trump is going to win Texas, he's just going to win Texas by  3%, imo. 

I think 3 is about the number too. If it's that or inside that then the DNC needs to dump millions into Texas for 26 and 28 immediately. 

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9947

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Runs CN Analysis. 

David Plotz has a vibe based theory that the campaign that is having more fun is winning the election, and that pretty much tracks in my experience.

My personal feeling is the, possibly with the exception of 2016, the side that spends its time in the cross tabs attempting to unskew the polls is probably losing the election. We've seen that flip in the last 6 weeks. 

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mdmost

mdmost 43297

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25 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Oh wow

image.thumb.png.ed4cbbe35a15f19b413bde6e9ed3ee36.png

 

No, no. You guys are being too sensitive. They're not saying black people and Hispanic people who are American will invade your neighborhood under Kamala. They're saying it's black and Hispanic migrants who will invade your neighborhood under Kamala. Totally not racist....

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26672

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1 hour ago, bluto said:

That Texas poll seems a bit junky, was heavy dem lean. Trump will win Tx by just as much if not more than 20. 

That poll is in line with the expectations in the aggregate, but it’s entirely possible for Harris to win in Texas, it’s just unlikely for the same reason statewide Dems don’t win: a lack of organizational campaign strength outside of the 6 most populous counties. 
 

Harris can win if all of the following things happen

- cities turn out heavily for Harris

- turnout is significantly lower in rural and exurban counties

- rural and suburban Democrats turn out at a slightly higher rates than past years

I’m not saying that WILL happen, but there are early reasons to think the conditions are right. 

The best evidence of field campaign infrastructure on the ground in rural areas and suburbs in Texas is yard and fence signs. It indicates that people active in the party are making  personal contact with people outside of the party, and the level of activity is really determined by how well the down ballot candidates and the top of the ticket are connecting at the local level. In other words- yard signs don’t  tell you who will win, but they do tell you who is working the hardest and most effectively, and that’s often a leading indicator, because it gives early and overwhelming winners of the yard sign primary validate their supporters, and demoralize opponents. This is particularly crucial in down ballot races. 

In a normal year, you see signs for GOP campaigns in rural and suburban areas right after primaries, and they are usually very visible by August. Energy is supplied by the presidential or governor’s race, and the local ticket drafts behind it and brings the volunteers.

Driving around in Texas you should be seeing yard signs and 6x4 fence signs for everything, in other words - house races, county commissioners, dog catcher, etc. and you don’t, at least not yet. That tells me one thing- the vital link between the Trump campaign and the county parties is missing for some reason. 
Now- obviously it’s not there for Democrats or Harris, either, but Trump needs to win about 2/3 of  the votes outside of the biggest counties to win Texas, and turn out the vote at at least as high a rate. 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17807

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33 minutes ago, bluto said:

The influx of red loonies to this state since/because of covid has been insane. Every statewide race in 22 cycle was R by double digit, including Abbott over Beto and even Paxton romping. Roll that into the current border issues with abbotts actions and approval rating, zero down ballot excitement, and voting restrictions… Trump will outperform his ‘20 margin of 5.58%. First to PM me has a $50 wager on it. 

I think 2022 is more a result of lessened democratic voter enthusiasm. Texas saw reduced voter turn out compared to 2018. 8.35 million voted for governor in 2018 vs 8.1 million in 2022. You can also see that in the attorney general numbers where 350,000 less people voted Democratic in 2022 vs 2018 (and total voter reduction was about the same, 8 million vs 8.3 million). This is all despite the fact Texas' population increased by 1.4 million from 2018 to 2022. With Trump on the ticket and Harris' current surge, I don't see that being an issue this time. Trump will still win, but I don't think he is out performing his 2020 margin. 

Edited by Dahobbs
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Js1

Js1 85744

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4 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Red loonies moved to Texas en masse because of covid? Did I miss that? 

I mean, it is entirely reasonable-ish that Texas and Florida might be redder in 2024 due to migration of GOP voters and the states they left may be bluer.

Like, California and Colorado could be bluer while Texas and Florida are redder due to where voters are moving.  But in the long run, that does not matter for 2024, because neither Texas nor Florida are states Dems should focus on.  Or care about.  

The Dems, as a national party, need to continue to keep WI, MI, PA, NV blue and invest in making AZ, GA and NC wins for them.  

Texas needs to prove it's flippable outside of one really good year for Dems (2018).  Florida....is nuts.

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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52863

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1 minute ago, NorthLoop said:

Red loonies moved to Texas en masse because of covid? Did I miss that? 

Lots of people moved from states that instituted policies they did not like, to states that had policies they aligned with.  Lots of the Californians that moved to Texas over the last few years are maga, yearning for their freedoms. 

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Upgrayedd

Upgrayedd 5824

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2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Lots of people moved from states that instituted policies they did not like, to states that had policies they aligned with.  Lots of the Californians that moved to Texas over the last few years are maga, yearning for their freedoms. 

No take backs

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32432

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4 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Red loonies moved to Texas en masse because of covid? Did I miss that? 

 

Friend of my wife lives in NYC.  Her husband is a detective with NYPD.  He's close to retirement age.  They are looking to move ASAP to either Texas or Florida, because A)he's full-blown MAGA and B) they don't have Covid laws.  He honestly believes that states still have Covid laws they are enforcing in 2024.  And they live in NYC.

 

 

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