2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[SydneyCarton 48,090]

2 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

national polls are basically worthless thanks to the EC tho. It's not a popular vote, so polling nationally makes little sense. In the places where it really matters, Kamala is basically winning them all by 3-5 points, except Georgia where Trump has a 1 point lead down from 7.

Yes, but some pundits have drawn lines and say that if Harris is up nationally by 3.5% then the should feel "good" about an electoral college victory 80% of the time. So, uh, yeah, I'd like to not see 2%. 

[Js1 85,320]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yes, but some pundits have drawn lines and say that if Harris is up nationally by 3.5% then the should feel "good" about an electoral college victory 80% of the time. So, uh, yeah, I'd like to not see 2%. 

It’s one poll in August. Big “Texas only beat Colorado state by 30 and not 35, we are doomed” vibes 

Edited August 14 by Js1

[Red Five 40,857]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Yes, but some pundits have drawn lines and say that if Harris is up nationally by 3.5% then the should feel "good" about an electoral college victory 80% of the time. So, uh, yeah, I'd like to not see 2%. 

Hillary won the popular vote by 2.5% right? Yeah that's about the line, unfortunately.

It's crazy that no one is even considering the possibility that Trump will actually get more votes. What a system. 

[The Dog 44,041]

4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yes, but some pundits have drawn lines and say that if Harris is up nationally by 3.5% then the should feel "good" about an electoral college victory 80% of the time. So, uh, yeah, I'd like to not see 2%. 

It's got a lot of undecided voters. Throw it on the pile for the average and move on.

[Gatorubet 30,233]

8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I was hoping for a lot more than 2% nationally. 

Trump smashing the numbers in a few states like Montana, West Virginia, the fucking south, etc., tend to skew the overall percentage.  

Trump winning by 40% in West Virginia can offset 5% point wins in 8 Democratic states with similar populations.  But Trump gets the electoral college votes in West Virginia and Harris gets the votes in the 8 other states.  

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

Not that this is a surprise but the latest Berkeley Institute/LA Times poll came out for California.
Harris 59%
Trump 34%
 
Margin is +7% over where Biden was earlier this year. Huge gains among the young, Black, Latino and independent voters. 
 
What bodes well in other states:
The Berkeley poll delivered another piece of good news for Democrats — showing that people who don’t belong to a political party and those who describe themselves as moderates favor Harris at significantly higher levels than they did Biden. Moderates in California said they would pick the Democratic nominee by 59% to 31% over Trump. That puts Harris 12 percentage points ahead of where Biden stood in February, the poll found. And among nonpartisan voters, the poll showed a stout advantage for Harris, with 62% of California independents saying they support the vice president, a 17-point improvement over Biden’s standing in February.
 
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-08-14/poll-harris-and-walz-build-huge-lead-among-likely-california-voters

Username checks out.

[Dnaguy 11,951]

18 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yes, but some pundits have drawn lines and say that if Harris is up nationally by 3.5% then the should feel "good" about an electoral college victory 80% of the time. So, uh, yeah, I'd like to not see 2%. 

[RomaVicta 29,907]

12 hours ago, OU Sucks said:

Are you saying people like this are massive dumbfucks?

 

Thanks for the grim reminder about the persisting issue of a large part of the electorate. I used to laugh at this stuff but no more, unfortunately. It would be funny if it were just a handful of people thinking (ha! talk about choosing the wrongest word!) like this. Their impenetrable obtuseness depresses the shit out of me. Dolts content and proud to be dolts.

I'm reminded that the victory of Harris will not mean the end of the struggle. At least now there is the possibility that these malign idiots will be somewhat marginalized. I'd like to go back to laughing at the yokels.

 

 

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I was talking with my wife’s cousin from Beaumont about this kind of thing. Essentially, fundamentalist evangelicals see Donald Trump as anointed- like a Cyrus or King David. He’s not a Godly man so much as he is God’s instrument. 

Trump is a tool, indeed. The God who is a comedian playing to an audience afraid to laugh created him like everything else.

 

 

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5,388]

17 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Hillary won the popular vote by 2.5% right? Yeah that's about the line, unfortunately.

It's crazy that no one is even considering the possibility that Trump will actually get more votes. What a system. 

If our system was actually decided by popular vote the entire country would be night and fucking day different. Like, alt-history sort of different. No George W Bush, no Trump, etc.

[The Dog 44,041]

Haven't seen this yet - it appears the Biden campaign was guilty of political malpractice in Florida:

 

 

[Blotto 23,498]

CNN out there pushing the boundaries of political thought, again. Twelve moves ahead of everyone else. 

 

 

Edited August 14 by Blotto

[Loch Ness Monster 3,533]

Trump needs his diaper changed this morning. He's panicking.

 

[Born to Run 6,569]

49 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Do you fapped to Fraggle Rock?

To be fair Red was kinda cute and didn't wear pants.

[Fudge Nuggets 19,190]

2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Will be very interesting to see how close Texas is.  There’s zero 0% chance it goes blue this year but if it keeps trending and gets closer than ~3.5% then the following cycle it should actually be in play.  Personally I think there will be a negative reaction in Texas to Harris’ race and gender and the gap will widen to 6-7%.  I hope I’m wrong.

I laughed.  Again.

[Jive Turkey 12,595]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

Do you fapped to Fraggle Rock?

The Hitchhiker, Dream On, and First and 10 all had quality skin back in the day.

Edited August 14 by Jive Turkey

[Bozo_Casanova 26,451]

This is the real Fascist “stuff,” the old Soviet Union!

[TexEx15 17,515]

Harris should schedule something at this exact time. 

[Js1 85,320]

 You know they will rush to cover it and lob softballs at him 

[mdmost 43,001]

Google is trying to rig the election for Kamala! /old man sitting in his own feces

Meanwhile, DOJ is considering breaking up Google. 

[GopherRock 1,765]

1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

I don't know if/when Predictit will post their markets for Florida, but if you're looking for underdogs at a price, Democrat to win Florida President and Senate are worth throwing a few bucks on.

[BrickHorn 18,228]

54 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yes, but some pundits have drawn lines and say that if Harris is up nationally by 3.5% then the should feel "good" about an electoral college victory 80% of the time. So, uh, yeah, I'd like to not see 2%. 

Y’all put way too much stock in that nerd Nate Silver. His analysis is worth about as much as a Geoff Ketchum preseason practice report.

[Red Five 40,857]

The gag order says he can't talk about the jury, witnesses, etc right? What super duper massive important information is this mean judge preventing him from talking about?

[Jive Turkey 12,595]

This will move the needle with Gen Z. It has the Ted Cruz seal of approval.

 

[Loch Ness Monster 3,533]

14 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

 

[TexEx15 17,515]

 

[Js1 85,320]

Just now, TexEx15 said:

 

[Js1 85,320]

 A huge shift in enthusiasm is the most vivid finding in the poll. While the number of voters who were at least somewhat enthusiastic about the Trump versus Biden rematch had been increasing throughout the year, it never topped 50%. Now that the contest is Trump versus Harris, voter enthusiasm has risen to 68%. The biggest jump has been among Democrats (from 46% in June to 85% now), but there has also been a notable increase in enthusiasm among independents (from 34% to 53%). Among Republicans, enthusiasm for the Trump-Harris contest (71%) is identical to what it was for the Trump-Biden rematch in June (71%).

In terms of personal ratings, Harris (48% favorable and 50% unfavorable) has an advantage over Trump (43% favorable and 56% unfavorable), although neither candidate’s rating is a net positive. Turning to their running mates, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has a net positive rating (37% favorable and 30% unfavorable) while Ohio U.S. Senator J.D. Vance has a net negative one (36% favorable and 41% unfavorable).

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

5 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

This will move the needle with Gen Z. It has the Ted Cruz seal of approval.

 

This will be popular with all the boomers on Facebook and literally nobody else.  

[C-Man 27,222]

7 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

This will move the needle with Gen Z. It has the Ted Cruz seal of approval.

 

 

[Goredho 17,401]

5 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

This will move the needle with Gen Z. It has the Ted Cruz seal of approval.

 

Wow, look at these fun guys having fun!  Isn’t it fun?!  ARENT WE ALL HAVING FUN MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN???!!!!  FUN TIMES FUN!!! FEEL THE FUN!!!

 

[Loch Ness Monster 3,533]

Ted Cruz-

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19,101]

5 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This will be popular with all the boomers on Facebook and literally nobody else.  

I am sure the TikTok dancers who posted that originally love that someone stole their post and implanted Tweedle Dum and Dumbers' heads on their bodies without asking permission, giving appropriate credit, or paying.

Edited August 14 by PenelopeWitherspoon

[Bozo_Casanova 26,451]

14 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

This will move the needle with Gen Z. It has the Ted Cruz seal of approval.

 

The original videos were produced by a VERY litigious combination cult/social media management company* called 7M. Don’t be surprised if they sue, but more importantly the kids have turned against them- those were popular like 12-18 months ago but nobody cares now. It’s as dated for Gen Z as doing a “whazzup?” thing would be for Gen X, with an added taint of toxic brand association. 
 

 

* serious, there’s a documentary about it.
 

Edited August 14 by Bozo_Casanova

[Goredho 17,401]

1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I am sure the TikTok dancers who posted that originally love that someone stole their post and implanted Tweedle Dum and Dumbers' heads on their bodies without asking permission, giving appropriate credit, or paying.

Kamala and Tim should post an undoctored video of them dancing to the same song and having a great time.  Think of it like Beto skateboarding.  America, here’s what authentic fun looks like.

[Red Five 40,857]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 A huge shift in enthusiasm is the most vivid finding in the poll. While the number of voters who were at least somewhat enthusiastic about the Trump versus Biden rematch had been increasing throughout the year, it never topped 50%. Now that the contest is Trump versus Harris, voter enthusiasm has risen to 68%. The biggest jump has been among Democrats (from 46% in June to 85% now), but there has also been a notable increase in enthusiasm among independents (from 34% to 53%). Among Republicans, enthusiasm for the Trump-Harris contest (71%) is identical to what it was for the Trump-Biden rematch in June (71%).

In terms of personal ratings, Harris (48% favorable and 50% unfavorable) has an advantage over Trump (43% favorable and 56% unfavorable), although neither candidate’s rating is a net positive. Turning to their running mates, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has a net positive rating (37% favorable and 30% unfavorable) while Ohio U.S. Senator J.D. Vance has a net negative one (36% favorable and 41% unfavorable).

Amazing when the candidate isn't someone that we have to watch through our fingers like Nicholas Cage in 8MM.

Speaking of which, you don't hear anything at all these days about Biden, or Hunter. Huh. Funny how that works. 

[The Dog 44,041]

California's 54th district's take on the polls:

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,451]

Boom goes the dynamite

 

 

[NorthLoop 14,195]

Yeah MAGA is a notoriously reserved group of people.

[Red Five 40,857]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

California's 54th district's take on the polls:

 

Pretty big talk from a party that has won the popular vote once since David McWilliams was coaching Texas football.

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5,388]

19 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

This will move the needle with Gen Z. It has the Ted Cruz seal of approval.

 

That looks like fucking shit. Nerds in their bedrooms pump out better AI videos than the Trump campaign.

[cmontexas 3,271]

That's why they wear hats and love boat stickers and losing elections

[Old Freak Nasty 821]

2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

So the campaign has no resources or field offices anymore and now will have to spend time and money defending previously "in the bag" EVs.  Nice.

[The Dog 44,041]

7 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Yeah MAGA is a notoriously reserved group of people.

 

7 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Pretty big talk from a party that has won the popular vote once since David McWilliams was coaching Texas football.

 

3 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

That's why they wear hats and love boat stickers and losing elections

You don't want to know the polling from California's 54th district. It's THE predictor for the country!

[Bateshorn 9,927]

26 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

 

 

Fun Fact: Every GOP President since the end of WW2 has had a recession start on their watch. Every. Single. One. Only Truman and Carter had recessions begin during their terms.  Eisenhower had 3!

Edited August 14 by Bateshorn

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5,388]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

Fun Fact: Every GOP President since the end of WW2 has had a recession start on their watch. Every. Single. One. Only Truman and Carter had recessions start on their watch.  Eisenhower had 3!

fiscally responsible recessions

[Red Five 40,857]

Random, but remember when Dotard said a week ago that he hasn't been campaigning recently because of the democratic convention? Yeah, still hasn't started. Next Monday. But that's why he hasn't been campaigning the last month. Adherence to tradition and norms that don't exist.

[SydneyCarton 48,090]

11 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Yeah MAGA is a notoriously reserved group of people.

 

10 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Pretty big talk from a party that has won the popular vote once since David McWilliams was coaching Texas football.

Guys, it's a parody. California doesn't have 54 districts. 

[Red Five 40,857]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Guys, it's a parody. California doesn't have 54 districts. 

I lost the ability awhile back to tell parody from the real thing. 

[C-Man 27,222]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Guys, it's a parody. California doesn't have 54 districts. 

Dammit, forgot about that parody account. He drew me offsides.

[Gatorubet 30,233]

1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Haven't seen this yet - it appears the Biden campaign was guilty of political malpractice in Florida:

 

 

Getting that asshole former NO mayor, Mitch Landrieu, out of a position of power in the Biden campaign is a great step forward.  I assumed Trump would win just because of Mitch’s presence in the campaign.  He is a lazy, entitled scion of a notable Louisiana political family who thinks he can bully everyone because his father was a beloved mayor and his sister a US senator.