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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47808

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2 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

national polls are basically worthless thanks to the EC tho. It's not a popular vote, so polling nationally makes little sense. In the places where it really matters, Kamala is basically winning them all by 3-5 points, except Georgia where Trump has a 1 point lead down from 7.

Yes, but some pundits have drawn lines and say that if Harris is up nationally by 3.5% then the should feel "good" about an electoral college victory 80% of the time. So, uh, yeah, I'd like to not see 2%. 

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Js1

Js1 84939

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1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yes, but some pundits have drawn lines and say that if Harris is up nationally by 3.5% then the should feel "good" about an electoral college victory 80% of the time. So, uh, yeah, I'd like to not see 2%. 

It’s one poll in August. Big “Texas only beat Colorado state by 30 and not 35, we are doomed” vibes 

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Red Five

Red Five 40573

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Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Yes, but some pundits have drawn lines and say that if Harris is up nationally by 3.5% then the should feel "good" about an electoral college victory 80% of the time. So, uh, yeah, I'd like to not see 2%. 

Hillary won the popular vote by 2.5% right? Yeah that's about the line, unfortunately.

It's crazy that no one is even considering the possibility that Trump will actually get more votes. What a system. 

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The Dog

The Dog 43707

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4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yes, but some pundits have drawn lines and say that if Harris is up nationally by 3.5% then the should feel "good" about an electoral college victory 80% of the time. So, uh, yeah, I'd like to not see 2%. 

It's got a lot of undecided voters. Throw it on the pile for the average and move on.

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 29990

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8 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I was hoping for a lot more than 2% nationally. 

Trump smashing the numbers in a few states like Montana, West Virginia, the fucking south, etc., tend to skew the overall percentage.  

Trump winning by 40% in West Virginia can offset 5% point wins in 8 Democratic states with similar populations.  But Trump gets the electoral college votes in West Virginia and Harris gets the votes in the 8 other states.  

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Chuckie Finster

Chuckie Finster 22571

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Not that this is a surprise but the latest Berkeley Institute/LA Times poll came out for California.
Harris 59%
Trump 34%
 
Margin is +7% over where Biden was earlier this year. Huge gains among the young, Black, Latino and independent voters. 
 
What bodes well in other states:
The Berkeley poll delivered another piece of good news for Democrats — showing that people who don’t belong to a political party and those who describe themselves as moderates favor Harris at significantly higher levels than they did Biden. Moderates in California said they would pick the Democratic nominee by 59% to 31% over Trump. That puts Harris 12 percentage points ahead of where Biden stood in February, the poll found. And among nonpartisan voters, the poll showed a stout advantage for Harris, with 62% of California independents saying they support the vice president, a 17-point improvement over Biden’s standing in February.
 
https://www.latimes.com/california/story/2024-08-14/poll-harris-and-walz-build-huge-lead-among-likely-california-voters

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11622

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18 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yes, but some pundits have drawn lines and say that if Harris is up nationally by 3.5% then the should feel "good" about an electoral college victory 80% of the time. So, uh, yeah, I'd like to not see 2%. 

Calculate Figure It Out GIF

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29686

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12 hours ago, OU Sucks said:

Are you saying people like this are massive dumbfucks?

 

Thanks for the grim reminder about the persisting issue of a large part of the electorate. I used to laugh at this stuff but no more, unfortunately. It would be funny if it were just a handful of people thinking (ha! talk about choosing the wrongest word!) like this. Their impenetrable obtuseness depresses the shit out of me. Dolts content and proud to be dolts.

I'm reminded that the victory of Harris will not mean the end of the struggle. At least now there is the possibility that these malign idiots will be somewhat marginalized. I'd like to go back to laughing at the yokels.

 

 

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I was talking with my wife’s cousin from Beaumont about this kind of thing. Essentially, fundamentalist evangelicals see Donald Trump as anointed- like a Cyrus or King David. He’s not a Godly man so much as he is God’s instrument. 

Trump is a tool, indeed. The God who is a comedian playing to an audience afraid to laugh created him like everything else.

 

 

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WelfareBuysMyWeed

WelfareBuysMyWeed 5365

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17 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Hillary won the popular vote by 2.5% right? Yeah that's about the line, unfortunately.

It's crazy that no one is even considering the possibility that Trump will actually get more votes. What a system. 

If our system was actually decided by popular vote the entire country would be night and fucking day different. Like, alt-history sort of different. No George W Bush, no Trump, etc.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19097

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2 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

Will be very interesting to see how close Texas is.  There’s zero 0% chance it goes blue this year but if it keeps trending and gets closer than ~3.5% then the following cycle it should actually be in play.  Personally I think there will be a negative reaction in Texas to Harris’ race and gender and the gap will widen to 6-7%.  I hope I’m wrong.

I laughed.  Again.

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GopherRock

GopherRock 1765

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1 hour ago, Hank Kingsley said:

 

I don't know if/when Predictit will post their markets for Florida, but if you're looking for underdogs at a price, Democrat to win Florida President and Senate are worth throwing a few bucks on.

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18132

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54 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Yes, but some pundits have drawn lines and say that if Harris is up nationally by 3.5% then the should feel "good" about an electoral college victory 80% of the time. So, uh, yeah, I'd like to not see 2%. 

Y’all put way too much stock in that nerd Nate Silver. His analysis is worth about as much as a Geoff Ketchum preseason practice report.

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Js1

Js1 84939

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 A huge shift in enthusiasm is the most vivid finding in the poll. While the number of voters who were at least somewhat enthusiastic about the Trump versus Biden rematch had been increasing throughout the year, it never topped 50%. Now that the contest is Trump versus Harris, voter enthusiasm has risen to 68%. The biggest jump has been among Democrats (from 46% in June to 85% now), but there has also been a notable increase in enthusiasm among independents (from 34% to 53%). Among Republicans, enthusiasm for the Trump-Harris contest (71%) is identical to what it was for the Trump-Biden rematch in June (71%).

In terms of personal ratings, Harris (48% favorable and 50% unfavorable) has an advantage over Trump (43% favorable and 56% unfavorable), although neither candidate’s rating is a net positive. Turning to their running mates, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has a net positive rating (37% favorable and 30% unfavorable) while Ohio U.S. Senator J.D. Vance has a net negative one (36% favorable and 41% unfavorable).

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Goredho

Goredho 17265

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5 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

This will move the needle with Gen Z. It has the Ted Cruz seal of approval.

 

Wow, look at these fun guys having fun!  Isn’t it fun?!  ARENT WE ALL HAVING FUN MAKING AMERICA GREAT AGAIN???!!!!  FUN TIMES FUN!!! FEEL THE FUN!!!

insanity-crazy.gif

 

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19015

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5 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

This will be popular with all the boomers on Facebook and literally nobody else.  

I am sure the TikTok dancers who posted that originally love that someone stole their post and implanted Tweedle Dum and Dumbers' heads on their bodies without asking permission, giving appropriate credit, or paying.

Edited by PenelopeWitherspoon
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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26126

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14 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

This will move the needle with Gen Z. It has the Ted Cruz seal of approval.

 

The original videos were produced by a VERY litigious combination cult/social media management company* called 7M. Don’t be surprised if they sue, but more importantly the kids have turned against them- those were popular like 12-18 months ago but nobody cares now. It’s as dated for Gen Z as doing a “whazzup?” thing would be for Gen X, with an added taint of toxic brand association. 
 

 

* serious, there’s a documentary about it.
 

Edited by Bozo_Casanova
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Goredho

Goredho 17265

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1 minute ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I am sure the TikTok dancers who posted that originally love that someone stole their post and implanted Tweedle Dum and Dumbers' heads on their bodies without asking permission, giving appropriate credit, or paying.

Kamala and Tim should post an undoctored video of them dancing to the same song and having a great time.  Think of it like Beto skateboarding.  America, here’s what authentic fun looks like.

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Red Five

Red Five 40573

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8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 A huge shift in enthusiasm is the most vivid finding in the poll. While the number of voters who were at least somewhat enthusiastic about the Trump versus Biden rematch had been increasing throughout the year, it never topped 50%. Now that the contest is Trump versus Harris, voter enthusiasm has risen to 68%. The biggest jump has been among Democrats (from 46% in June to 85% now), but there has also been a notable increase in enthusiasm among independents (from 34% to 53%). Among Republicans, enthusiasm for the Trump-Harris contest (71%) is identical to what it was for the Trump-Biden rematch in June (71%).

In terms of personal ratings, Harris (48% favorable and 50% unfavorable) has an advantage over Trump (43% favorable and 56% unfavorable), although neither candidate’s rating is a net positive. Turning to their running mates, Minnesota Governor Tim Walz has a net positive rating (37% favorable and 30% unfavorable) while Ohio U.S. Senator J.D. Vance has a net negative one (36% favorable and 41% unfavorable).

Amazing when the candidate isn't someone that we have to watch through our fingers like Nicholas Cage in 8MM.

Speaking of which, you don't hear anything at all these days about Biden, or Hunter. Huh. Funny how that works. 

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Red Five

Red Five 40573

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1 minute ago, The Dog said:

California's 54th district's take on the polls:

 

Pretty big talk from a party that has won the popular vote once since David McWilliams was coaching Texas football.

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The Dog

The Dog 43707

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7 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Yeah MAGA is a notoriously reserved group of people.

 

7 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Pretty big talk from a party that has won the popular vote once since David McWilliams was coaching Texas football.

 

3 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

That's why they wear hats and love boat stickers and losing elections

You don't want to know the polling from California's 54th district. It's THE predictor for the country!

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Bateshorn

Bateshorn 9853

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26 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

 

 

Fun Fact: Every GOP President since the end of WW2 has had a recession start on their watch. Every. Single. One. Only Truman and Carter had recessions begin during their terms.  Eisenhower had 3!

Edited by Bateshorn
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Red Five

Red Five 40573

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Random, but remember when Dotard said a week ago that he hasn't been campaigning recently because of the democratic convention? Yeah, still hasn't started. Next Monday. But that's why he hasn't been campaigning the last month. Adherence to tradition and norms that don't exist.

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47808

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11 minutes ago, NorthLoop said:

Yeah MAGA is a notoriously reserved group of people.

 

10 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Pretty big talk from a party that has won the popular vote once since David McWilliams was coaching Texas football.

Guys, it's a parody. California doesn't have 54 districts. 

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 29990

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1 hour ago, The Dog said:

Haven't seen this yet - it appears the Biden campaign was guilty of political malpractice in Florida:

 

 

Getting that asshole former NO mayor, Mitch Landrieu, out of a position of power in the Biden campaign is a great step forward.  I assumed Trump would win just because of Mitch’s presence in the campaign.  He is a lazy, entitled scion of a notable Louisiana political family who thinks he can bully everyone because his father was a beloved mayor and his sister a US senator.  

 

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