2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

['stache 21821]

Donold’s unwavering 43% seriously pisses me the fuck off. He’s not even fucking campaigning anymore.

[Gatorubet 30246]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

New Cook Political/BSG/GS Strategy polls, July 26-Aug 2

Calmate amigo!!

22 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Boom goes the dynamite

unhinged Trump post in 3….2….1…

[mdmost 43004]

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Donold’s unwavering 43% seriously pisses me the fuck off. He’s not even fucking campaigning anymore.

I'm not saying those 43% of Americans are racists and/or misogynists who would never vote for a black woman...but maybe. 

[The Dog 44066]

2 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Donold’s unwavering 43% seriously pisses me the fuck off. He’s not even fucking campaigning anymore.

You need to understand that the vast majority of voters are "low information" and aren't following this stuff nearly as closely as we do. There's about a 35-40% "floor" on both sides that will vote Red or Blue team no matter what. Even Nixon had a 25% approval after Watergate and that was without Newsmax, FoxNews, etc pumping out bullshit to prop him up.

1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

unhinged Trump post in 3….2….1…

"Fake polls" is already trending. 

[Js1 85423]

Walz with a solo rally in Omaha on Saturday. Send the Nebraska boy to shore up that 1 EV

[Pato del Muerto 52528]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Walz with a solo rally in Omaha on Saturday. Send the Nebraska boy to shore up that 1 EV

Maybe he leaves with both EVs and a turkey. 

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

34 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The original videos were produced by a VERY litigious combination cult/social media management company* called 7M. Don’t be surprised if they sue, but more importantly the kids have turned against them- those were popular like 12-18 months ago but nobody cares now. It’s as dated for Gen Z as doing a “whazzup?” thing would be for Gen X, with an added taint of toxic brand association. 
 

 

* serious, there’s a documentary about it.
 

Gen Z is the tech industry of people. What is popular and cutting edge 1 month is 3 years old 2 months later.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13515]

Arizona and Missouri recently announced that abortion/reproductive rights will be on the 2024 ballot. They join FL, NV, CO, MD, NY and SD. NE and MT are considering it, meaning the GOP is fighting to prevent it. Not good for Trump in some of these states.

I've given up on FL to flip blue for a while, but Rick Scott is polling poorly for a GOP FL incumbent in a red state. +4 in the only recent polls of likely voters. When he first won in 2018, the polling was neck and neck with incumbent Bill Nelson. The polling proved to be accurate in that Rick only won by 10K votes out of 8m ballots cast.

Rick Scott is the Ted Cruz of Florida. Hopefully with Trump and abortion on the ballot, FL will send Rick Scott packing. 

[Pancho 44860]

 

[Gatorubet 30246]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

You need to understand that the vast majority of voters are "low information" and aren't following this stuff nearly as closely as we do. 

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

I can't find the tweet or video now but I saw that Harris/Walz is making headway in uneducated white males. 

[Js1 85423]

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I can't find the tweet or video now but I saw that Harris/Walz is making headway in uneducated white males. 

it was posted a page or 2 back. 

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

Just now, Js1 said:

it was posted a page or 2 back. 

Maybe this is where I saw it then haha! Newborn feeding and diaper schedule is no joke.

[Bozo_Casanova 26493]

3 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I wasn’t kidding about the tias earlier. Win with the tias and it’s ballgame. 

[cactusflinthead 27601]

3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Nevada is a difficult state to poll.

I haven't seen a lot of Ralston recently but then again I haven't been looking for him either. Let's go look.

 

[Tuco 5076]

Trump/RNC just set up a field office in Omaha. Also, they are making a late push to change to winner-take-all.

https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/13/nebraska-bound-harris-running-mate-tim-walz-to-visit-2nd-district/

I hope this helps Vargas win the seat.

[linux 1660]

2 hours ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

national polls are basically worthless thanks to the EC tho. It's not a popular vote, so polling nationally makes little sense. In the places where it really matters, Kamala is basically winning them all by 3-5 points, except Georgia where Trump has a 1 point lead down from 7. Kamala doesn't need to win every one of those battleground states, just a few, but it's trending really well for her in all of them.

No, national polls are very very good at predicting final results as long as a certain margin was crossed (say Kamala +5), state polls are horrifically unreliable, I have seen like 7 point swings in final state polls but never to that level in national polls. That said B+ is pretty mediocre.

If Kamala cements her 5% nationally I can at least breathe better.

[Js1 85423]

5 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Trump/RNC just set up a field office in Omaha. Also, they are making a late push to change to winner-take-all.

https://nebraskaexaminer.com/2024/08/13/nebraska-bound-harris-running-mate-tim-walz-to-visit-2nd-district/

I hope this helps Vargas win the seat.

They can try, but they lack the votes.  Omaha doesn't want to become irrelevant. 

[Js1 85423]

Sounds like the Quinnipiac Poll for today is PA, not national. 

[babysdaddy 2725]

On 7/16/2024 at 9:13 PM, babysdaddy said:

Pelosi is going to fix it.

 

 

[David Dennison 18924]

Well, duh.

 

[Dnaguy 12002]

58 minutes ago, The Dog said:

California's 54th district's take on the polls:

 

 

Nah bro. We beatin’ dat ass.

 

(Wayyy better Californian John / Jack Kimble in my book)

[aggie08 21505]

Pelosi is pretty good at politics, more news at 10.

[Pato del Muerto 52528]

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

They can try, but they lack the votes.  Omaha doesn't want to become irrelevant. 

What does the EV map look like if all EVs were broken down by district? Or region, however Maine and NE do it. 

Edited August 14 by Pato del Muerto

[aggie08 21505]

1 minute ago, aggie08 said:

Pelosi is pretty good at politics, more news at 10.

But also Pelosi:

"But I'M not too old. Don't put in the newspaper that I got too old."

[Js1 85423]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

What does the EV map look like if all EVs were broken down by district?

Here's 2020

https://www.270towin.com/news/2021/01/13/first-look-2020-presidential-election-all-states-voted-like-maine-nebraska_1144.html

But as we know, gerrymandering makes this stupid as hell.  Unless Congress outlawed partisan gerrymandering, it should never happen. 

[Pancho 44860]

 

[GopherRock 1765]

Pelosi was able to do what Mitch McConnell was either unable or unwilling to do.

She didn't expect the timing, or the rapid consolidation around Kamala Harris. 

[Js1 85423]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I would flip NV to blue, NC to yellow and then totally agree with that. 

NV flipping red and NC flipping blue in the same election - no way the shattered dreams of the GOP in 2016/2020 and the Dems in 2016/2020 happens in the same election. 

Edited August 14 by Js1

[HenryJames 66128]

38 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

I can't find the tweet or video now but I saw that Harris/Walz is making headway in uneducated white males. 

The Surly demographic.

[Red Five 40862]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I would flip NV to blue, NC to yellow and then totally agree with that. 

NV flipping red and NC flipping blue in the same election - no way the shattered dreams of the GOP in 2016/2020 and the Dems in 2016/2020 happens in the same election. 

Fine with me. Add Georgia and that's 313 for Harris (until the Supreme Court decides that Harris wasn't actually eligible in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and NC). 

[Js1 85423]

1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Fine with me. Add Georgia and that's 313 for Harris (until the Supreme Court decides that Harris wasn't actually eligible in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, Georgia, and NC). 

Kamala can just declare herself winner. Donald said so

[Firemans4Horn 18110]

Ripped right from NYT_Pitchbot

 

[bolverk 29691]

14 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

What does the EV map look like if all EVs were broken down by district? Or region, however Maine and NE do it. 

 

12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Here's 2020

https://www.270towin.com/news/2021/01/13/first-look-2020-presidential-election-all-states-voted-like-maine-nebraska_1144.html

But as we know, gerrymandering makes this stupid as hell.  Unless Congress outlawed partisan gerrymandering, it should never happen. 

Different site but with a map.

They also have a link to ArcGIS, but I can't get it to load.  

 

Daily Kos put this one together using 2024 districts but 2020 data. It's better at visualizing the balance, instead of hiding some that are in dense cities.

ETA: https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2022/11/14/1163009/-Daily-Kos-Elections-presidential-results-by-congressional-district-for-2020

 

Edited August 14 by bolverk

[Tuco 5076]

They can try, but they lack the votes.  Omaha doesn't want to become irrelevant. 

I agree. And Pillen just failed to pass a shitty real estate tax reform, so isn’t great at twisting arms. Having Trump and MAGA try, particularly this late, is going to piss off moderate Republicans and independents. It could also cause additional fighting between the pub state party and county party. The state party is all MAGA and refused to endorse the 4-term incumbent NE2 Congressman months ago.

[Dnaguy 12002]

12 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Ripped right from NYT_Pitchbot

 

Even NYT pitchbot thinks that this is ridiculous 

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

31 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

I saw an interview with Carville a week ago and he thought NV was the most likely Republican flip but NC was the most likely Dem flip from last time.  He said each state leans the other way more than the national people realize.  He could be right.

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

22 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Kamala can just declare herself winner. Donald said so

Also, as VP, she can just refuse to certify the election, right?

Checkmate.

[Pato del Muerto 52528]

Does NV polling include NAs on reservations in their call bank?

[mdmost 43004]

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I saw an interview with Carville a week ago and he thought NV was the most likely Republican flip but NC was the most likely Dem flip from last time.  He said each state leans the other way more than the national people realize.  He could be right.

I think it's difficult to call some of these states until you see what the net migration was post-Covid. Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Texas all had net migration in people from California, New York, and other Northern states. If it's anything like we've seen in Texas, it's not people coming to make the states more blue. I could see Nevada flipping as well. 

[Gil Bang 25975]

6 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I saw an interview with Carville a week ago and he thought NV was the most likely Republican flip but NC was the most likely Dem flip from last time.  He said each state leans the other way more than the national people realize.  He could be right.

He smells like a fucking corn dog, but he's usually right.

39 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

But also Pelosi:

"But I'M not too old. Don't put in the newspaper that I got too old."

At least she stepped down from leadership. 

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think it's difficult to call some of these states until you see what the net migration was post-Covid. Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Texas all had net migration in people from California, New York, and other Northern states. If it's anything like we've seen in Texas, it's not people coming to make the states more blue. I could see Nevada flipping as well. 

I suspect that may be true.  The Democratic refugees from CA moved to Phoenix, Denver, etc.  The right leaning types seem to have moved to TX, OKC, etc.  On the East Coast, I would assume the MAGA Warrior Patriots moved to FL.  Not sure who moved to NC....?

[linux 1660]

10 minutes ago, mdmost said:

I think it's difficult to call some of these states until you see what the net migration was post-Covid. Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Texas all had net migration in people from California, New York, and other Northern states. If it's anything like we've seen in Texas, it's not people coming to make the states more blue. I could see Nevada flipping as well. 

NV was not a fascist recruitment like Abbott and DeSantis though, Nevada is also probably the most urban+suburban state I can think of, only 7.4% is rural, I think a GOTV campaign can be very efficient at targeting the votes.

That said Masto won by only 8000 votes, it is trending red but it is my prediction for the closest state result.

Edited August 14 by linux

[Js1 85423]

11 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I saw an interview with Carville a week ago and he thought NV was the most likely Republican flip but NC was the most likely Dem flip from last time

That's pretty much been the CW for a while, but NV is a tough nut for the GOP to crack.  Polling has sucked because not every polling outfit will do a Spanish option and they can't find a way to get the overnight shift workers.

I mean, they were pretty wrong in 2010 (Reid won), 2016 (Hillary won), 2018 (Rosen won easily) and 2022 (CCM won)

[linux 1660]

3 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I suspect that may be true.  The Democratic refugees from CA moved to Phoenix, Denver, etc.  The right leaning types seem to have moved to TX, OKC, etc.  On the East Coast, I would assume the MAGA Warrior Patriots moved to FL.  Not sure who moved to NC....?

NC and Georgia are economic migrants which is why they are flipping. TX and FL are MAGA warriors fleeing there, AZ is retirees but they have their maverick pride, NV I have no idea.

[Hank Kingsley 20967]

 

[Chuckie Finster 22701]

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

I suspect that may be true.  The Democratic refugees from CA moved to Phoenix, Denver, etc.  The right leaning types seem to have moved to TX, OKC, etc.  On the East Coast, I would assume the MAGA Warrior Patriots moved to FL.  Not sure who moved to NC....?

Anecdotal, but I know numerous liberals from Texas/the South that have moved to NC in recent years.  Seems almost like an East Coast Colorado in that it's a logical migration spot for folks looking to move away from red states.

[Sawbonz 27578]

4 hours ago, Kel Varnsen said:

How could I have never seen or heard of this American Classic?

It was my introduction to environmental activism 

[F250 28784]

10 hours ago, cmontexas said:

Sean O'Brien won his election for Teamsters president by appealing to Maga Teamsters.

There's alot of them, which doesn't make sense; but does when you consider that a majority of Teamsters are uneducated, and have lots of break time to spend watching conspiracy videos on YouTube that their stay home wives send them

I've encountered a number of MAGA union members, primarily IBEW members. In my opinion, the unions do a shitty job of waging class warfare by just allowing so many of their members to fall for the classic divide and conquer tactic.

[Aqua Buddha 14598]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That's pretty much been the CW for a while, but NV is a tough nut for the GOP to crack.  Polling has sucked because not every polling outfit will do a Spanish option and they can't find a way to get the overnight shift workers.

I mean, they were pretty wrong in 2010 (Reid won), 2016 (Hillary won), 2018 (Rosen won easily) and 2022 (CCM won)

Also, with NV, I would assume if Harris has the Hispanic vote to win AZ then she'd also have it to win NV.