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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Horndog

Horndog 2167

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1 hour ago, Horn Under a Bad Sign said:

Regarding Allred's campaign:  when I was a kid my father had a very good friend who was witty and charismatic and also an alcoholic.  His name was Mark.  Mark's dad had some land near Brownwood and my dad and Mark and I would go dove hunting on it.  Because of his drinking, Mark wasn't in real good physical shape and also he wasn't the world's best shot, but he wasn't a dangerous drunk. 

 

Anyway, my dad and I were out walking through the fields but Mark liked to hang around the stock tank because the doves would fly in, land, and he wouldn't have to try to shoot them on the wing.  He explained to us that his idea was that he "liked to hit 'em while they are in park."    I get the feeling that that's Allred's strategy. He knows that Cruz's support is baked in and that there's nothing he can do to change it. There's also likely nothing he could have done in the last few months to raise his own support. I mean, if Spanish-speaking Beto couldn't win while hitting every single county, football field, Dairy Queen etc ... in the state, how's Allred going to win?  So Allred's just going to hang around the rim, rope-a-dope a complacent Cruz, unleash a massive media blitz with about seven weeks left, and ride a Kamala/Walz tide in, hoping to hit Cruz while he's in park.  

 

I thought this story was going to have a very different ending. 

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18132

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1 hour ago, DaysOff said:

 

He's running as a Republican, bashing the Biden/Harris border disaster. fuck him and fuck ted cruz.

Allred’s messaging reminds me of the 1980’s SNL Texas gubernatorial ad spoofs where the candidates all bragged that they would execute more prisoners than their opponents. 

Edited by BrickHorn
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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11622

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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

I actually have had a sneaky suspicion that if Harris overperforms 2020 (i.e., wins the PV by 5+), Allred could end up sneaking by Cruz without doing anything at all. 

The negative opinions of Ted Cruz are so baked in from Cruz's presidential run in 2016, almost losing in 2018, fleeing for Cancun during the freeze, that a really milquetoast candidate who didn't manage to piss off too many Texans (*cough* Beto's gun comments in 2020) could just sneak by while doing nothing precisely because Cruz is so unlikeable that he will underperform the top of the ticket for a third straight cycle. 

Rope-a-dope and hope.

I mean, it’s a strategy I guess.

A democrat essentially sneaking into a senate seat in Texas would be something.

It would be a fun footnote to history. Ted Cruz was so unlikeable that he lost to a guy who didn’t really even run a campaign.

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babysdaddy

babysdaddy 2710

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25 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

My name isn’t Pamela, and I’ve had the same # since 9/11. But thanks Elaine!

 

IMG_0239.png

may want to delete so a buncha surly dudes don't share your number with cat facts or something.  And read your damn text messages

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Gil Bang

Gil Bang 25831

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6 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

may want to delete so a buncha surly dudes don't share your number with cat facts or something.  And read your damn text messages

the number is the sender's number, not the poster.   I get a lot of dem texts, and they often come from a (202) number which is D.C.

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Js1

Js1 84939

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https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/22/a-very-detailed-examination-of-the-washington-primary/

Summary - trend suggest about D+3 or 4 this year downballot, which is both enough to win the presidency and the House, with the Senate being lean R (need to be about +5 for the Senate to be a tossup under this map)

unnamed-5.png

 

For example, in 2012, Washington as a whole had a D +4 vote in the House primary. In 2016, that number ballooned to D +15.5. But in non-urban Washington, Democrats collapsed, as the area went from R +4 to R +9.5. The primary numbers in non-urban Washington were the canary in the coal mine, predicting that Clinton would collapse in the Midwest relative to Obama, even as she made gains in highly educated urban areas like Seattle and suburban Atlanta.

There’s another interesting wrinkle in this. Non-urban Washington hasn’t just tracked the Midwest — it has consistently predicted the national environment as a whole. This part of the state has been roughly 7–10% to the right of the eventual national House vote. When accounting for the Third and Fourth Congressional Districts’ swath of Democratic votes for GOP incumbents due to their votes to impeach Donald Trump in 2022, the numbers likely have an even more consistent range.

AD_4nXdgcJU16cV42-tS3OBwVejspurbjvYKaFPMV5SPfoAcPzyEb_xsc0t_wI6sSKLlViE1LPGm-dTfku2y28EEvYt-UACvnVabS9p38BxQ2aYVh8sWLOytuqgQKui-ktg1m6ThhgU6NzaySX-rgTUS8-wOqJsicAVCQY1OEkZ6?key=jjZpKiL1U3vPgi9OkFtcOA

On balance, the results this year contain good news for Democrats. Currently, non-urban Washington is voting R +5.5, about 1.3% more Democratic than how the area voted in 2020, and that points to a modestly bluer down-ballot environment this time around.

This leftward shift is important for two reasons: first, it shows that there was a blueshift across the state, not just limited to the high-turnout liberals of the Seattle metro. Secondly, because the more Midwestern-resembling areas of the state had modest leftward movement, observers could read it as a potential sign of a strong Democratic performance in the non-urban North.

That would be in line with most of the polling we’ve observed, where Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania are now voting closer to the national popular vote than they did in 2020. And if the Washington primary’s portents continue to stay true, marginal leftward shifts in more evenly divided and less educated areas such as the Midwest should hold water for Democrats.

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'stache

'stache 21726

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23 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

He has done nothing to expand his electorate. Just base red meat. 

Which is still like 46-48 percent. I really just don't get it, even the biggest conservative and biggest asshole should see this guy as the clown that he is, fake alpha, fake conservative, fake everything. He's the biggest bitch maid beta to ever fuck around.

Edited by 'stache
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Red Five

Red Five 40573

Posted
Posted
his own supporters do, so probably

It’s just….. He’s holding a fucking benefit for people who attacked police officers who were DEFENDING OUR CAPITOL.

Every once in a while you’re hit with something that seems too far fetched even for our simulation. Should lead off every newscast/should lose 95% of his support overnight, etc.
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South Austin

South Austin 51965

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1 minute ago, Jive Turkey said:

Good lord. Fox and Friends served up a meatball right down the middle of the plate and Trump whiffed.

 

"I read Project 2025. Some good stuff.  Some very good stuff.  Some maybe not so good stuff.  I have no idea what Project 2025 is."

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Tuco

Tuco 5076

Posted
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1 minute ago, Jive Turkey said:

Good lord. Fox and Friends served up a meatball right down the middle of the plate and Trump whiffed.

 

With all the scrutiny on Secret Service, I'm sure they love the unplanned stroll into a crowd.  

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Radical Larry

Radical Larry 28494

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5 minutes ago, Red Five said:


It’s just….. He’s holding a fucking benefit for people who attacked police officers who were DEFENDING OUR CAPITOL.

Every once in a while you’re hit with something that seems too far fetched even for our simulation. Should lead off every newscast/should lose 95% of his support overnight, etc.

“Here’s why that’s bad for Kamala Harris”

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wildcat09

wildcat09 29143

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35 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

He has done nothing to expand his electorate. Just base red meat. 

This is about encouraging his supporters to commit more violence in his name.

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Js1

Js1 84939

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High Point - 47-47 tie in NC

Insider Advantage (Hannity’s polling outfit) - 46.6 Trump, 46 Harris in PA. Really had to go all the way out to decimal points to give their boy a lead 

IA was off by 7 points to the right in 2022 in the PA senate race - had Oz +2 and he lost by 5

Edited by Js1
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Pato del Muerto

Pato del Muerto 52225

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

High Point - 47-47 tie in NC

Insider Advantage (Hannity’s polling outfit) - 48.6 Trump, 48.3 Harris in PA. Really had to go all the way out to decimal points to give their boy a lead 

What’s their MOE?  I’m sure it justifies the tenths inclusion. 

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Js1

Js1 84939

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Just now, Pato del Muerto said:

What’s their MOE?  I’m sure it justifies the tenths inclusion. 

I was looking at the wrong numbers - its 46.6 to 46 lol

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Francisco 2.0

Francisco 2.0 32290

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Just now, Pescado_Rojo said:

J6 Prison Choir? Holy shit that sounds awful.

Sadly, it's a thing:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Justice_for_All_(song)

 

Quote

"Justice for All" is a charity record by former United States President Donald Trump and the J6 Prison Choir, a choir of about 20 men imprisoned for their involvement in the January 6 United States Capitol attack. The profits from the song are dedicated to the legal aid of people incarcerated for the attack. The song was produced by an unidentified recording artist.[1]

 

Quote

The song consists of Trump reciting the Pledge of Allegiance to the flag of the United States of America interspersed with the J6 Prison Choir singing "The Star-Spangled Banner" with an ambient backing track. The song finishes with the choir chanting "U-S-A!" six times.[3][5][6] The Pledge of Allegiance portion was recorded at Trump's home at Mar-a-Lago, while the choir's singing was recorded through a prison phone.[1]

 

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