2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[TexArcher 37761]

37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Look I get that polls are polls and people should be skeptical. But when Trump was leading in every public poll post-debate, they were gospel to the media. Now Tapper is saying don’t believe them because Harris is leading. And your sources are who? 

 

 

I feel like this is concern trolling from CNN: casting doubt when she's leading and stoking fear when he's leading.  Either way, it discourages Democrats from inaction.

That doesn't exactly speak to journalistic integrity, but if their motive is to stop Trump, it's not the worst strategy.  And it probably keeps people tuning in.

[safe sex 11696]

22 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

A deep cut

That shit was fucking nuts when it happened

[chainsaw 9854]

6 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

if their motive is to stop Trump

It's not. CNN has been bought by right wing interests.

[South Austin 52443]

22 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

All the media criticism with Tapper and how it's reporting is justified, but the dea that Biden wasn't going to lose some support with white men in PA and other states is hardly a concern to be dismissed. It was something specifically discussed several times considering Biden's ties to PA. 

Yeah, the notion that Harris taking over the ticket would lose white make voters who would’ve supported Biden is not remarkable.

But the question is how much that might be offset by (1) others who voted for Trump in 2020 and are really sick of his shot, and (2) black voters who sat out in 2020, and (3) young voters who weren’t eligible or who sat out in 2020.

[jimmyjazz 45880]

1 hour ago, chainsaw said:

can someone be on two tickets at once? ballots w RFK already printed in some swing states

Sounds like a coup to me.

[Js1 85264]

Kaplan Strategies: Harris, 52, Trump 45 (GCB: Dems +3, 44-41)

Kaplan is the pollster associated with Redstate.com and had Trump up 15 in MI and 10 in PA in April.  Don't worry, they spun this as "Harris cannot pull away from Trump" in a poll where she is up 7 lol 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2819]

39 minutes ago, Hmbre97 said:

Looks like a saddlebag with eyes. He kilt a bare wif a nife.

[Hmbre97 6304]

Looks like a saddlebag with eyes. He kilt a bare wif a nife.

someone on reddit said it looks like the gross ups they'd do of Ren and Stimpy

[Bozo_Casanova 26434]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Look I get that polls are polls and people should be skeptical. But when Trump was leading in every public poll post-debate, they were gospel to the media. Now Tapper is saying don’t believe them because Harris is leading. And your sources are who? 

 

In WI and MI she is “maybe up a point or two” and in PA she “may be down” a couple points, sources say. Oh, and She’s doing better than Biden,  but worse in PA with white men.

in other words, the fact of margin of error repackaged as sourced reporting with crosstab minutiae to give it color on a slow news day.

Great job Jake!

Edited August 26 by Bozo_Casanova

[Pancho 44688]

55 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Jake Tapper is a bitch

Something has definitely changed with him the last year or so. He used to punch back a bit but now has gone soft.

[Js1 85264]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

In WI and MI she is “maybe up a point or two” and in PA she “may be down” a couple points, sources say. Oh, and She’s doing better than Biden,  but worse in PA with white men.

in other words, the fact of margin of error repackaged as sourced reporting with crosstab minutiae to give it color. 

Great job Jake!

Also who are the sources?  GOP operatives?  Dem operatives?  Wouldn't shock me if GOP operative are blasting out private polls to keep Trump going and the horserace going in the media. 

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

Something has definitely changed with him the last year or so. He used to punch back a bit but now has gone soft.

I have a theory he's planning a new book or something - and he needs a Trump presidency to do so. 

[Js1 85264]

Morning Consult stays Harris +4, 48-44

Only real change in the poll and crosstabs was Walz' favorability went from +3 to +6

 

Also that Kaplan poll, 20% of voters said RFK endorsement made them want to vote for Trump, 20% to Harris, 58% said "meh, makes no difference"

Edited August 26 by Js1

[The Original Greaser Bob 2819]

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Kaplan Strategies:

Fuck. My blood pressure just went through the roof thinking about the bar exam.

Although I was a BarBri man, goddammit.

[Cap33 384]

4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Something has definitely changed with him the last year or so. He used to punch back a bit but now has gone soft.

I met him once years ago through mutual friends before he got on tv. He's always been soft and thinks he's smarter than everyone else. Fuck him.

[Macanudo 12974]

6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Something has definitely changed with him the last year or so. He used to punch back a bit but now has gone soft.

Yes, something changed.... The leadership at his company.  The ones who sign off on his checks.  They changed and now he sucks ass.

[Js1 85264]

 

[Jive Turkey 12594]

 

[Gatorubet 30184]

32 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Look I get that polls are polls and people should be skeptical. But when Trump was leading in every public poll post-debate, they were gospel to the media. Now Tapper is saying don’t believe them because Harris is leading. And your sources are who? 

 

This first chart has been posted before, but I think it very relevant. It looks a bit confusing at first, but this tracks the gender gap on new voter registration.   The orange is 2020 and the blue is 2024.     The percentage is the greater percentage of women than men registering.

Take a look at swinging states Ohio and Michigan

it shows 6.6 and 4.9% more women than men new registering in 2024.  

Now look at the second chart showing women in Louisiana registration.

it shows in Louisiana that in 2020 there were more women than men registering with a 13% advantage to the GOP.  After Biden dropped out there is a landslide of women registering with a 14% advantage to Democratic voters. 

The other thing is, the women are all younger voters and most of them African-American.   The bottom line is this ground swell of newly registered voters are mostly going to be voting for Harris, being that younger females lead the demographic.   Nevada and Florida have abortion rights on the ballot.  But preventing a national abortion ban is on everyone’s ballot by implication.     If an abortion rights bill can win in red State Kansas, this could well be a wildcard that results in several percentage points in favor of Harris.  

I am guessing that this issue has not been totally baked into the polls yet.  

[HenryJames 66035]

1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

Take a look at swinging states Ohio and Michigan

[Js1 85264]

3 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Ummm if you want Ohio women, go ahead.

We all know you got your eye on Big Gretch instead.

Edited August 26 by Js1

[Js1 85264]

9 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

I am guessing that this issue has not been totally baked into the polls yet.  

Man, the polls have under counted Dems in almost every election since Dobbs and I'm still supposed to sit here and believe they will get it right this year?  Young voters, voters of color, young women, they keep under-polling them or can't reach them. 

[Js1 85264]

Georgia

 

 

[Gatorubet 30184]

19 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

[royiv 9244]

30 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

Low energy

[ultimaton 2966]

29 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

"Someone in his orbit should stage an intervention before his “doctor” kills him."

[chainsaw 9854]

31 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

Yeah, I hope they intervene.

[Frank The Tank 1496]

33 minutes ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

He just doesn’t know how to read very well. You can tell when he comes to a comma and doesn’t pause when he’s supposed to. He’s on the teleprompter and has no idea what the speech is about until he hears the words come out of his mouth. 

[royiv 9244]

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Man, the polls have under counted Dems in almost every election since Dobbs and I'm still supposed to sit here and believe they will get it right this year?  Young voters, voters of color, young women, they keep under-polling them or can't reach them. 

A whole lot of this. I don’t think the polls are accurately capturing the groundswell support from young voters particularly young women. Harris has tons of energy and charisma and doesn’t have the baggage, deserved or not, that Hilary did which is creating a lot more excitement. Combined with everyone knows at this point what you’re going to get with a second Trump term and you’ve got a lot of motivated younger voters. We just have to keep them engaged for the next couple of months and make sure they show up at the polls in November. I hope Dems make a huge early voting push to get those voters to vote when it’s convenient for them.

[Js1 85264]

13 minutes ago, royiv said:

A whole lot of this. I don’t think the polls are accurately capturing the groundswell support from young voters particularly young women. Harris has tons of energy and charisma and doesn’t have the baggage, deserved or not, that Hilary did which is creating a lot more excitement. Combined with everyone knows at this point what you’re going to get with a second Trump term and you’ve got a lot of motivated younger voters. We just have to keep them engaged for the next couple of months and make sure they show up at the polls in November. I hope Dems make a huge early voting push to get those voters to vote when it’s convenient for them.

Early voting will always be the D strategy. Get those votes banked. First ballots go out in 2 weeks 

[LurkingHorn 1066]

38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Man, the polls have under counted Dems in almost every election since Dobbs and I'm still supposed to sit here and believe they will get it right this year?  Young voters, voters of color, young women, they keep under-polling them or can't reach them. 

Do we have a nice summary somewhere showing how much the polls have been under counted the Dems? I'd be curious to see that. 

[tx 3 putt 76865]

21 minutes ago, royiv said:

Low energy

 

SDE 

[tx 3 putt 76865]

18 minutes ago, Frank The Tank said:

He just doesn’t know how to read very well. You can tell when he comes to a comma and doesn’t pause when he’s supposed to. He’s on the teleprompter and has no idea what the speech is about until he hears the words come out of his mouth. 

 

he reads on an elementary school level, if that 

[TeeDubya 3362]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Kaplan Strategies: Harris, 52, Trump 45 (GCB: Dems +3, 44-41)

Kaplan is the pollster associated with Redstate.com and had Trump up 15 in MI and 10 in PA in April.  Don't worry, they spun this as "Harris cannot pull away from Trump" in a poll where she is up 7 lol 

What does GCB mean?  TIA.

[Js1 85264]

10 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Do we have a nice summary somewhere showing how much the polls have been under counted the Dems? I'd be curious to see that. 

Not polling, but performances: 

These were all pre-Harris though.  That CO-04 race was, as mentioned, super wonky because it was also the primary and the GOP had a very contested primary with Boebert switching to CO-04. 

If the combined 2023/24 specials are pointing to a D+2/3 environment pre-Harris, you have to think she's bumped that up to +3/4.  So nearly in line with polling. 

 

 

1 minute ago, TeeDubya said:

What does GCB mean?  TIA.

Generic Congressional Ballot

Edited August 26 by Js1

[TeeDubya 3362]

7 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

he reads on an elementary school level, if that 

But....  only the very best elementary school level.  They don't want you to know that!  Tremendous reading.

[chainsaw 9854]

Just now, TeeDubya said:

What does GCB mean?  TIA.

General Congressional Ballot (Q: do you want a dem or republican for your congressional rep? A: 44% Dems, 41% Reps)

[The Dog 44017]

1 minute ago, TeeDubya said:

What does GCB mean?  TIA.

generic congressional ballot

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

7 hours ago, The Dog said:

You are correct in that point.

However, they've used the argument that the agreement was settled before in order to keep Trump from bailing and doing additional debates. Now they are trying to flip the script and make changes? 

The Harris campaign is trying to have it both ways.

Tough shit.  Team dotard needs the debate(s) a lot more than Harris does at this point.

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

15 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Speaking of Bible stuff..

https://www.msnbc.com/opinion/msnbc-opinion/christians-kamala-can-pull-evangelical-voters-away-donald-trump-rcna167561

How I’ve been convincing Christians they don’t have to vote Republican

Democrats need to embrace the idea that evangelicals, and especially white male evangelicals, are worth winning and can be won.

By Doug Pagitt, executive director of Vote Common Good

During the last month, Christians for Kamala joined the ranks of groups supporting Vice President Kamala Harris and her running mate, Gov. Tim Walz of Minnesota. In so doing, they stand beside groups as wide-ranging as Comics for Kamala and Deadheads for Kamala. Because Harris has shown she will include us all in her vision for the United States and bring together what has been torn apart, all of these groups have seized upon the newfound enthusiasm among the electorate since President Joe Biden dropped out of the race in July and endorsed Harris.

A religious coalition such as this entering the chat is an important step in the right direction, and, if built upon, could help sway enough movable religious voters in critical battleground states such as Michigan, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. What’s more, it could mean breaking the stronghold that MAGA forces have on many of our country’s evangelical voters. Thanks in part to the cooperation of so many self-identified Christian voters, the MAGA movement has seized control of the Republican Party and helped lead our country down a dark, democracy-threatening path.

Central to our work at Vote Common Good, I spend a lot of my time traveling the country speaking to voters, particularly evangelical and Catholic voters who are hardwired into voting Republican, working to get them to break out of those patterns. What I’ve learned is that most don’t want or need their elected leader to be like them, but they really do want their leader to like them. It wasn’t clear that Secretary of State Hillary Clinton liked evangelical and Catholic men when she ran for president in 2016, and it remains largely unclear to many of these voters in 2024 if Kamala Harris does. Trump, on the other hand, probably doesn’t like them, but he put his arms around these voters in a transactional exchange, and he promised and in some cases delivered them power.

But on the trail in 2020, 2022 and this year, I’ve gleaned the reason many evangelical and Christian voters ultimately leave Trump: his obvious lack of kindness. A poll that my organization Vote Common Good commissioned in 2020 showed that in swing states, Trump’s lack of kindness was driving evangelical and Catholic voters away in large enough numbers to potentially affect the outcome of the election.

Voters typically realize that the way they vote reflects on them. And those religious voters who defected from Trump didn’t like the way his unkindness reflected on them, whether it be putting migrant children in cages, the way he treats women, the way he treats the press, the way he treats nearly everyone who left his administration and the way he treats democracy itself. Many of these voters know that’s not the behavior they want their children to emulate.

The Harris campaign clearly knows it has an opportunity here. The choice of Tim Walz as vice presidential nominee is in no small part evidence of that. But it isn’t nearly enough. Democrats more broadly need to embrace the idea that evangelicals, and especially white male evangelicals, are worth winning and can be won without the party compromising its values.

What it’s going to take is a concerted, grassroots effort to reach these voters, listen to them and bring them along on a journey to help them understand it’s OK for them to let concern for the common good, and not allegiance to a political party, determine how they vote. We need to tell them that what Democrats are pushing for lines up with the values evangelicals hold dear — making the world better and bringing people together. Those policies include commonsense gun reform to keep kids safe, engaging solutions at the border and lowering the cost of child care. Many Christians are heartbroken at the idea that they have to choose between a faith that’s meaningful to them and a political identity that has been wedded to it. They don’t know what to do, and we need to help them separate those two identities.

---

More at the link above.

Fuck 'em.  They enabled the monster, they can clean up his shit.

[Brisketexan 105052]

Two anecdotes:

 

1) the boy messaged us and asked us to order him a camo Harris Walz hat.  No such luck.  Completely sold out.  Seriously, not on back order -- SOLD OUT.

2) at lunch at the Tavern, GOLL correctly observed that Jim Hightower was sitting at the bar, having a snack and making some notes.  I had to go to the bar to close out, and chatted him up, asked him how he's feeling about things.  "We had a great week last week -- I mean we democrats."  I told him "well not just us democrats, all of us, right?"  He was pretty pleased with that.  He said that he loved Walz, and told me he actually went up to Minn to work for his campaign when he first ran for Congress. "He was just a teacher then, and he's the same guy now.  His football team introduced him, and they really do think that highly of him."  I asked him how he was feeling about our chances - "We're going to win.  I don't remember when I've seen enthusiasm and energy like this."  I told him I was surprised by how organized and focused the party was now, and he chuckled "me too, but they are."

Hightower was always a great Texas character, agree or disagree with him.  Was cool to chat with him.

[Brisketexan 105052]

2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Fuck 'em.  They enabled the monster, they can clean up his shit.

More importantly: they aren't "Christians" (followers of Christ).  They don't believe in a single fucking thing that Jesus Christ tells them to believe/do, and they actually believe in/act contrary to almost everything Christ said.  They think Matthew 25 is blasphemous communism...instead of it being the central message of the Gospels.

Don't appeal to American evangelical Christians with actual thoughts on real-deal Christianity -- it only pisses them off and entrenches them more.  

[gmr548 16576]

19 minutes ago, LurkingHorn said:

Do we have a nice summary somewhere showing how much the polls have been under counted the Dems? I'd be curious to see that. 

 

9 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Not polling, but performances: 

These were all pre-Harris though.  That CO-04 race was, as mentioned, super wonky because it was also the primary and the GOP had a very contested primary with Boebert switching to CO-04. 

If the combined 2023/24 specials are pointing to a D+2/3 environment pre-Harris, you have to think she's bumped that up to +3/4.  So nearly in line with polling. 

 

 

Generic Congressional Ballot

To add to this, Washington state runs a combined primary where the top 2 candidates advance to the general election regardless of party. Statewide results in early August were anywhere from the D+13 to D+16 range, which would indicate a pretty similar environment to 2020 where WA was D+13 for governor and D+15-16 for most other statewide races. Was Biden +20 but that's because it's a particularly bad state for Trump demographically (lots of whites who played school). Presidential primary was back in March and not included in the top two primary earlier this month.

[chainsaw 9854]

3 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Two anecdotes:

 

1) the boy messaged us and asked us to order him a camo Harris Walz hat.  No such luck.  Completely sold out.  Seriously, not on back order -- SOLD OUT.

2) at lunch at the Tavern, GOLL correctly observed that Jim Hightower was sitting at the bar, having a snack and making some notes.  I had to go to the bar to close out, and chatted him up, asked him how he's feeling about things.  "We had a great week last week -- I mean we democrats."  I told him "well not just us democrats, all of us, right?"  He was pretty pleased with that.  He said that he loved Walz, and told me he actually went up to Minn to work for his campaign when he first ran for Congress. "He was just a teacher then, and he's the same guy now.  His football team introduced him, and they really do think that highly of him."  I asked him how he was feeling about our chances - "We're going to win.  I don't remember when I've seen enthusiasm and energy like this."  I told him I was surprised by how organized and focused the party was now, and he chuckled "me too, but they are."

Hightower was always a great Texas character, agree or disagree with him.  Was cool to chat with him.

csb

[Js1 85264]

3 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

To add to this, Washington state runs a combined primary where the top 2 candidates advance to the general election regardless of party. Statewide results in early August were anywhere from the D+13 to D+16 range, which would indicate a pretty similar environment to 2020 where WA was D+13 for governor and D+15-16 for most other statewide races. Was Biden +20 but that's because it's a particularly bad state for Trump demographically (lots of whites who played school). Presidential primary was back in March and not included in the top two primary earlier this month.

Yes, the Washington results were better than 2020 but not as good as 2018. So D+3-4 range. They are similar to 2016’s numbers, but Dems got crushed in rural WA in 2016 primary, which was a huge warning sign. Rural WA results in 2024 were 5 points better than 2016 and 1.3 points better for Dems than 2020 

https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/22/a-very-detailed-examination-of-the-washington-primary/?amp=1

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yes, the Washington results were better than 2020 but not as good as 2018. So D+3-4 range. They are similar to 2016’s numbers, but Dems got crushed in rural WA in 2016 primary, which was a huge warning sign. Rural WA results in 2024 were 5 points better than 2016 and 1.3 points better for Dems than 2020 

https://split-ticket.org/2024/08/22/a-very-detailed-examination-of-the-washington-primary/?amp=1

Dotard ain't getting within 3-4 points of Harris in Washington.  Biden won it 58.0 to 38.8.

[Js1 85264]

2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Dotard ain't getting within 3-4 points of Harris in Washington.  Biden won it 58.0 to 38.8.

That’s not what it says. Go read the article. The results of the WA primary heavily predict the national lean because WA‘s demographics mirror the country’s in terms of share of white voters and college education levels

Trump will lose badly in WA, but it’s likely to be a D+3/4 down ballot for the WHOLE country. WA Dems were  D+16 in the house vote 

Edited August 26 by Js1

[Sawbonz 27533]

3 hours ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

RIP

[Fudge Nuggets 19184]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That’s not what it says. Go read the article. The results of the WA primary heavily predict the national lean because WA‘s demographics mirror the country’s in terms of share of white voters and college education levels

Trump will lose badly in WA, but it’s likely to be a D+3/4 down ballot for the WHOLE country. WA Dems were  D+16 in the house vote 

Got it.

[Pato del Muerto 52485]

22 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

More importantly: they aren't "Christians" (followers of Christ).  They don't believe in a single fucking thing that Jesus Christ tells them to believe/do, and they actually believe in/act contrary to almost everything Christ said.  They think Matthew 25 is blasphemous communism...instead of it being the central message of the Gospels.

Don't appeal to American evangelical Christians with actual thoughts on real-deal Christianity -- it only pisses them off and entrenches them more.  

They don’t have to believe in or follow that beta shit. All they need is to believe that Jesus is their savior and the son of god.   Boom- Christian.  And I guess a baptism so that Jesus knows you mean it. 

[Sawbonz 27533]

1 hour ago, Frank The Tank said:

has no idea what the speech is about until he hears the words come out of his mouth

Haven't we all been there though?