2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Js1 85449]

Just now, immamac said:

You would be surprised. You think 18-22 year olds with 40 -45 year old parents who are fox news brainwashed don't exist? Lots and lots and lots of them do. The hope is the ones that do like Trump just won't show up to vote. 

This. There’s a good chunk of them at some crappy SEC school, being young racist fucks. 

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Gotta post them, even though it’s Emerson and they’re terrible 

AZ: Trump +3

GA/NV: Harris +1

MI: Harris +3

NC/WI: Trump +1

PA: tie 

Thanks for updating this thread with the polls.  We almost need a specific thread just for polls and thoughts on them.  As a non poll expert I never know which polls are obviously republican driven, democrat driven or neutral.  Also, everyone say there is this Trump under polling historically or hidden Trump voters but is the same now true possibly for all of the new voter registrations or woman voting on abortion rights that the polls aren’t picking up that balances out the hidden Trump voters?  

[Hank Kingsley 20991]

3 minutes ago, immamac said:

You would be surprised. You think 18-22 year olds with 40 -45 year old parents who are fox news brainwashed don't exist? Lots and lots and lots of them do. The hope is the ones that do like Trump just won't show up to vote. 

Yep, gotta hope come November that Kamala is the clear favorite and Trump Bros are too lazy to go to the polls. 

 

[lemonlime 5503]

You would be surprised. You think 18-22 year olds with 40 -45 year old parents who are fox news brainwashed don't exist? Lots and lots and lots of them do. The hope is the ones that do like Trump just won't show up to vote. 

Absolutely. And they they’ve been cult members with their parents. But newer voters are still overwhelmingly dem. Each 4 years that pass make it harder for turnip. Which isn’t to say he can’t win given the ec. But he has to do more inflaming of his cult and getting cult election officials in place

[BurntOrange&White 39934]

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

You would be surprised. You think 18-22 year olds with 40 -45 year old parents who are fox news brainwashed don't exist? Lots and lots and lots of them do. The hope is the ones that do like Trump just won't show up to vote. 

See southern frats guys as example 

[Js1 85449]

Bad news for Turnip, who is probably going for low enthusiasm, low turnout  

WASHINGTON, D.C. -- Americans’ enthusiasm about voting in this year’s election has surged in recent months, with 69% of U.S. adults now saying they are “more enthusiastic than usual” about voting. This is up from 54% in March.

The Aug. 1-20 survey was conducted mostly before the Aug. 19-22 Democratic National Convention but after President Joe Biden abandoned his reelection bid on July 21. Party leaders quickly coalesced around Vice President Kamala Harris as the Democratic nominee in the days after Biden's announcement.

Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents are largely driving the surge in enthusiasm nationally. In March, 55% of Democrats and Democratic leaners said they were more enthusiastic than usual about voting; now, 78% are. Republicans and Republican leaners, who held a slight edge in enthusiasm in March, now trail Democrats by a significant margin, with their current 64% enthusiasm score up slightly from 59% in the spring.

As a result of these changes, election enthusiasm has shifted from being at an average level in March to the highest Gallup has measured during a presidential election campaign. Gallup measured similarly high enthusiasm -- 67% -- in September 2020, October 2008 and August 2004 surveys.

[Fastbreak 3989]

8 minutes ago, immamac said:

You would be surprised. You think 18-22 year olds with 40 -45 year old parents who are fox news brainwashed don't exist? Lots and lots and lots of them do. The hope is the ones that do like Trump just won't show up to vote. 

The guys driving the F250s with the giant trump flags all fall into this group.  MAGA has a solid base in the 18-30 market.

[mdmost 43011]

15 minutes ago, lemonlime said:

I doubt there are many 18-22 year old trump voters also.  He has no room to grow his vote, he can only drum up enthusiasm among his existing cult who haven’t died in the last 4 years.

No offense but this is very naive, especially with guys. Look on this site at people like Prong Horn as an example of what we're up against. They are being fed, self-selected early on, of non-stop clickbait outrage about illegal immigrants taking what's theirs, guys like Andrew Tate telling them that women are there to be their sexual servants and being an aggressive asshole is the way to get what's yours, and right wing people blaming everyone on the left for everything. Anecdotally, I hear from my daughters about the guys in their school who parrot a lot of this, some of them from families with questionable immigration status. They love Trump because he speaks to their worst desires and impulses. He's the male Id personified. Now, do they vote? God, I hope not. But they grow to an age where they can. I also tell my daughters that they now know what guys to look out for and stay away from.

Edited August 29 by mdmost

[lemonlime 5503]

No offense but this is very naive, especially with guys. Look on this site at people like Prong Horn as an example of what we're up against. They are being fed, self-selected early on, of non-stop clickbait outrage about illegal immigrants taking what's theirs, guys like Andrew Tate telling them that women are there to be their sexual servants and being an aggressive asshole is the way to get what's yours, and right wing people blaming everyone on the left for everything. Anecdotally, I hear from my daughters about the guys in their school who parrot a lot of this, some of them from families with questionable immigration status. They love Trump because he speaks to their worst desires and impulses. He's the male Id personified. Now, do they vote? God, I hope not. 

Have you seen the polling of 18 to 29 year olds? Turnip loses bigly among them. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a significant percentage of them. He does. But every 4 years that passes it becomes a somewhat smaller percentage. Which if you’re talking about 12k votes in Georgia makes a difference. Without election fuckery he has a marginally harder road to the presidency every 4 years based on demographics

[Bookman 4639]

Donald Trump is only the "male id personified" to weak people and racists.  

[cactusflinthead 27601]

Most notable is Collin County, home to Plano in the DFW Metroplex, which has seen an average leftward shift of 5.77 percentage points each election cycle. Williamson and Hays counties, suburbs of Austin, both moved to the left by an average of more than 5 percentage points each cycle.

 

On a statewide level, Texas has seen an average shift to the Democrats of 2.37% each election cycle since 2014.

https://www.kxan.com/news/your-local-election-hq/these-are-the-reddest-and-bluest-counties-in-texas-based-on-recent-election-results/

 

[Js1 85449]

17 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Thanks for updating this thread with the polls.  We almost need a specific thread just for polls and thoughts on them.  As a non poll expert I never know which polls are obviously republican driven, democrat driven or neutral.  Also, everyone say there is this Trump under polling historically or hidden Trump voters but is the same now true possibly for all of the new voter registrations or woman voting on abortion rights that the polls aren’t picking up that balances out the hidden Trump voters?  

Its important to look at the trends from their July polls

Arizona Trump +5 to Trump +3

Georgia Trump +2 to Harris +1

Michigan Trump +1 to Harris +3

PA Trump +2 to tie

the only one that didn’t move in Harris’ favor was WI, from a tie to Trump +1, but that’s really negligible and could be rounding error 

[Js1 85449]

And the last morning dump poll, IPSOS is Harris +4, 45-41 (always a lot of undecided in this poll)

[Chuckie Finster 22702]

Donald Trump is only the "male id personified" to weak people and racists.  

Hence his overwhelming popularity with 18-25 males.

[South Austin 52523]

Just now, cactusflinthead said:

Williamson and Hays counties, suburbs of Austin, both moved to the left by an average of more than 5 percentage points each cycle.

For Williamson and Hays, I didn't follow the last election cycle with much detail, but I know that there was a blue sweep in the Hays County judicial races, which took a lot of folks by surprise.  And those are relatively down-ballot elections.  It looks like Hays is going bluer faster than Wilco, which has still held onto a Republican dominated judiciary.  But Williamson seems firmly purple, which is pretty fucking remarkable given how deep right red that county has been for so long.  For whatever my lawyer perspective is worth.

[Francisco 2.0 32395]

57 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

 I think Fox News calling Arizona early is an underrated “saving democracy” moment.

 

 

 

[SydneyCarton 48134]

38 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

2020 was definitely induced some butthole puckering until you started to see the swing states and Georgia come in....it took way longer than normal as well for that to happen which IMO added to how puckered the butthole was.

 

I'm not saying this one is over or won't be close but leading into November as of right now it feels like it may be an easier path to presidency for democrats, especially since there isn't an incumbent. 

No doubt, but the nuance that is even more terrifying is that the total across the 3 swing states was something like 80k votes in 4 states to change everything.

https://www.cfr.org/blog/2020-election-numbers

Quote

When you look at the smallest popular vote shift needed to give Trump a victory, the 2020 election was close. Indeed, it was even closer than 2016. If Trump picked up the right mix of 42,921 votes in Arizona (10,457), Georgia (11,779), and Wisconsin (20,682), the Electoral College would have been tied at 269 all. The House would have then decided the election. Republicans will hold the majority of state delegations in the new Congress, and they undoubtedly would have chosen Trump. If Trump had also picked up the one electoral vote in Nebraska’s Second Congressional District, which he lost to Biden by 22,091 votes, he would have won the Electoral College outright. Back in 2016, Clinton needed to pick up the right mix of 78,000 votes in Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin to win the Electoral College.

And that was with Biden winning the popular vote by 4.5%. So yeah, I'm still sweating 5% national poll leads for Harris. 

Through the fucking whistle people. 

[Js1 85449]

Just now, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

The best will be when they have to call NC on election night for Harris, which is going to lead to a massive stroke in MAL

[Biff Tannen 45695]

22 hours ago, HenryJames said:

Not satire.

[TexasEd 8067]

16 hours ago, Js1 said:

Well yeah, he got legal bills to pay 

Ain’t no rest for the wicked 

Money don’t grow on trees 

Edited August 29 by TexasEd

[SydneyCarton 48134]

38 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Thanks for updating this thread with the polls.  We almost need a specific thread just for polls and thoughts on them.  As a non poll expert I never know which polls are obviously republican driven, democrat driven or neutral.  Also, everyone say there is this Trump under polling historically or hidden Trump voters but is the same now true possibly for all of the new voter registrations or woman voting on abortion rights that the polls aren’t picking up that balances out the hidden Trump voters?  

That's the billion dollar question. 

[Biff Tannen 45695]

1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Fox News calling Arizona early is an underrated “saving democracy” moment.

Would the number of votes have changed if they didn't call it?

[Biff Tannen 45695]

47 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This. There’s a good chunk of them at some crappy SEC school, being young racist fucks. 

I posted somewhere, but a whole group of them just moved in across the street from me.  Texas is, as much as people don't want to admit it, now a "crappy SEC school".

[Biff Tannen 45695]

27 minutes ago, Js1 said:

And the last morning dump poll, IPSOS is Harris +4, 45-41 (always a lot of undecided in this poll)

At this point, do we just assume "undecided" means "won't vote"?  Because I find it almost impossible to believe anyone is undecided at this point.

['stache 21825]

3 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

At this point, do we just assume "undecided" means "won't vote"?  Because I find it almost impossible to believe anyone is undecided at this point.

Maybe some, but 14%? Thats ludicrous, especially with brain work now out.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2844]

44 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

On a statewide level, Texas has seen an average shift to the Democrats of 2.37% each election cycle since 2014.

Which feels weird and as if it can't continue.  Abbott is doing everything to drive out progressives and welcome fringe rightists fleeing the melanin-induced terrors of California.

 

[Ghost of LL 15539]

15 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

At this point, do we just assume "undecided" means "won't vote"?  Because I find it almost impossible to believe anyone is undecided at this point.

Not necessarily--I've had elections in which I was undecided until the last minute (including 2008).

For me, this election isn't anything like 2008.  Nobody has an unformed opinion of Donald Trump.  But perhaps the substitution of Kamala Harris for Joe Biden has increased the number of last-minute deciders, with Harris being much less known and defined than Biden.

I would observe that since 2016, those last-minute deciders have consistently broken in favor of the Democratic candidate across all manner of elections (presidential, congressional, gubernatorial, dog-catcherial).

[SydneyCarton 48134]

24 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Would the number of votes have changed if they didn't call it?

No, but it's like recruiting. It's always easier to keep a commit than to flip a commit. Once they called AZ they were playing from behind in public perception and that's an entirely different game than just waiting it out and crying foul. 

[Js1 85449]

Those Fox News polls have abortion amendments passing in AZ and NV by 73-23 and 75-21, respectively.  

Yes, there will be some Trump-abortion referendum crossovers, but it does feel more....obvious (?) that Harris has a higher ceiling in both those states, based on a) having voted Dem in 2020 and b) having such high support for abortion. 

[Pancho 44878]

They have nothing lol

 

[Red Five 40877]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

They have nothing lol

 

 

My first job was picking up horseshit the summer between my junior and senior years of high school. At no point did that ever go on any resume. 

[Js1 85449]

35 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

At this point, do we just assume "undecided" means "won't vote"?  Because I find it almost impossible to believe anyone is undecided at this point.

Uh yeah, Gallup's poll about enthusiasm/interest/etc has roughly 20% still undecided.  

Also, net enthusiasm (more enthusiastic, minus less enthusiastic) is currently +64 after Biden dropped out, compared to +13 in March, and the GOP is only at +33 (+24 in March)

Kamala Harris literally was shot of adrenaline directly to the heart.

[Derka 6290]

11 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

ooh they so sensitive!/kanye 

[Js1 85449]

11 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

Rule #1 in politics - don't call attention to what your opponent is saying.  There's owning certain things (deplorables, I guess) and then straight up being like "no, he's not weird.  stop saying he's weird.  how come every time we say he's not weird, you think he's even more weird than before???" 

Streisand effect in action.  

[mdmost 43011]

4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

They have nothing lol

 

 

You know, I was going to vote for her but since she omitted a high school job from her college resume, I'm now going to instead vote for the guy with multiple convictions for fraud. 

[South Austin 52523]

4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

They have nothing lol

 

I worked at a Burger King one summer, and I have never, ever put that on a resume or job application.  I speak of it every once in a while (usually with some amount of gratitude for having that experience in my job history), but it has not been mentioned in any of my biographies.  What unbelievable fucksticks.

[Red Five 40877]

2 minutes ago, mdmost said:

You know, I was going to vote for her but since she omitted a high school job from her college resume, I'm now going to instead vote for the guy with multiple convictions for fraud. 

You know, it's easy to forget that the guy who will do anything for a buck owes half a billion dollars for fraud. And is running for president. 

[Js1 85449]

8 minutes ago, Pancho said:

They have nothing lol

 

 

It look 3 people to “report” on that??

[Wiler77 1567]

1 hour ago, mdmost said:

No offense but this is very naive, especially with guys. Look on this site at people like Prong Horn as an example of what we're up against. They are being fed, self-selected early on, of non-stop clickbait outrage about illegal immigrants taking what's theirs, guys like Andrew Tate telling them that women are there to be their sexual servants and being an aggressive asshole is the way to get what's yours, and right wing people blaming everyone on the left for everything. Anecdotally, I hear from my daughters about the guys in their school who parrot a lot of this, some of them from families with questionable immigration status. They love Trump because he speaks to their worst desires and impulses. He's the male Id personified. Now, do they vote? God, I hope not. But they grow to an age where they can. I also tell my daughters that they now know what guys to look out for and stay away from.

In May I attended my niece's HS graduation in Houston.  It's a private school, and one of the speakers was a girl from the senior class.  I don't think it was the Valedictorian speech--it was something stupid like speaking on memories from her time at the school because she was one of the few that had been attending since 1st grade.

She got to 5th grade, and her favorite memory was watching Trump's Presidential Inauguration, "or what they call in my family 'the best day EVER!'"  Half the room applauded.  My sister rolled her eyes at me and I said "you're the one who paid to send your daughter here."

Let's face it, most of us are influenced by our parents beliefs at an early age.  So I'm sure she was excited for the inauguration at age 11 because her dipshit parents were excited.  What I don't understand is the inability of people to think independently as they age to understand who has your best interests at stake.

[cactusflinthead 27601]

12 minutes ago, Pancho said:

They have nothing lol

 

 

Wait a minute. Are people supposed to be upset she doesn't brag about working at McDonald's?

Because that shit deserves hazard pay. That's plus 5 people skills on the charisma rating. 

I thought we were supposed to encourage broke ass teenagers to get a damn job? Or are we supposed to be embarrassed that she didn't have a cushy no-show gig because she was someone's granddaughter?

That's like getting bent out of shape about AOC bartending. 

Both jobs enhance their relatability. 

[Red Five 40877]

Just now, cactusflinthead said:

Wait a minute. Are people supposed to be upset she doesn't brag about working at McDonald's?

I don't speak maga, but I think the accusation is that she is making up the whole McDonald's thing? Because that's something that people do.

[Js1 85449]

Someone needs to shop a McDonalds hat on that 80s pic of her 

[cactusflinthead 27601]

That don't make no sense gif here

[SydneyCarton 48134]

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I don't speak maga, but I think the accusation is that she is making up the whole McDonald's thing? Because that's something that people do.

No. Not that she didn't work there. That she lied (by ommission) about not working there. Or maybe your thing. But either way she's a LIAR. 

[HenryJames 66134]

23 minutes ago, Pancho said:

They have nothing lol

 

 

It is way more damning if she didn't include a picture with her resume.

[Gatorubet 30270]

We are very close to the Republican pivot to “she forgot my large french fries….twice!”

[Pescado_Rojo 19427]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

For Williamson and Hays, I didn't follow the last election cycle with much detail, but I know that there was a blue sweep in the Hays County judicial races, which took a lot of folks by surprise.  And those are relatively down-ballot elections.  It looks like Hays is going bluer faster than Wilco, which has still held onto a Republican dominated judiciary.  But Williamson seems firmly purple, which is pretty fucking remarkable given how deep right red that county has been for so long.  For whatever my lawyer perspective is worth.

  Williamson has a super entrenched R county machine, but tends to vote bluer in national and statewide races. I was really disheartened at the candidate quality of most of the commissioners court and county judge races last cycle. We flipped the Sheriff's office, but that had more to do with Choty being a wholly unlikeable and corrupt prick than the greatness of Gleason as a candidate. 

['stache 21825]

[Player 4575]

I worked at a Burger King one summer, and I have never, ever put that on a resume or job application.  I speak of it every once in a while (usually with some amount of gratitude for having that experience in my job history), but it has not been mentioned in any of my biographies.  What unbelievable fucksticks.

Your mom once got busy in a Burger King bathroom.

She also reportedly likes her beats funky, is spunky, and likes her oatmeal lumpy.

[Horn Dog 9884]

12 hours ago, Pancho said: