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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The person who tagged me in that fb post voted for Obama, then Hillary Clinton, then Biden. It was a combination of inflation, the border, and the moral panics about trans athletes and CRT that put him over. Curiously, despite voting for Biden and  Democrats in Texas until recently they also became convinced that Biden and Democrats stole the 2020 election.

This is a retired person who is otherwise quite smart, very accomplished, a dedicated conservationist and a good old guy, but he and his peer group are vulnerable to social media and cable news propaganda techniques, and his brain has been poisoned.

That person was never voting for Harris no matter who they voted for in the past.  Apparently something in the last four years fucked them up (trans athletes, CRT, border, etc...) but it wasn't that stupid Facebook post.

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1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

When my relatives or friends post that kind of shit, I usually respond with some variation of  "Who would be dumb enough to believe that?  Are people really falling for this kind of stuff here in 2024?" and then just leave it at that - don't argue or debate.

Some/many will ignore what I said, but there will be some who have known me for decades, and who in the back of their minds, are going to be asking themselves why I would say that. People don't like to be known as suckers or be mocked for believing stuff.  Will it change votes?  For most, no, but it might cause some to stop spreading that shit or at least question it a little bit.

If you try to argue or debate people over that stuff, that is exactly what they are wanting - they want to validate their beliefs.  Just implying that they fell for something, and at the same time acting like it's not worth your time to debate/argue with them is going to bug the shit out of some of them.

 

 

 

Or call them a weirdo for believing it.  That seems to be the kryptonite for MAGA bullshit.

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This poll came up yesterday

 

Turns out someone came out on Xitter and said they signed up as a voter from AZ and picked Chase Oliver and Lake and the polling company just ran with it.  Nate also lied and confirmed the app doesn't verify.

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1 hour ago, Js1 said:

Trump HAS to win NC/GA/PA, because even NC/GA/AZ/NV isn't enough for him (268).  And don't even get us started on FL - if those polls start to tighten in the Sunshine State at all, he's cooked.  He has zero ability to recoup those EVs.

I think that's why Trump cozied up with Elmo, to help get more EVs.

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17 minutes ago, Guadaloopy said:

Ah... the old "Willie Horton" play.  

It won't matter.  Trump could have killed the agent and strangled the wife himself and it won't matter.

It's infuriating, actually.  On almost a daily basis there is something that would DQ any other candidate from either party but nothing matters.

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8 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

Willie Horton was part of a state furlough program, but Bush was able to hang him around Dukakis’ neck. Harris ought put this on blast, along with the question: how much was Trump paid to let this pos strangle his wife?

Trump's campaign will just answer with stories of migrants killing young white women and blaming that on Border Czar Kamala. It's a lose-lose proposition. 

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The radical right republicans are freaking out about Harris code-switching. It’s hilarious because it’s White people claiming her doing this is “weird, odd, or fake” when the group she’s code-switching for doesn’t give a shit and knows exactly why she’s doing it.

 

They.

Have.

Nothing.

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13 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

trump gives zero fucks about the election results. his money will be spent on lawyers post election …

I don’t think this is all that surprising. Trump was giving up on everything other than PA and GA, while not expecting that NC was in play. 

in his calculus, he had to win PA and GA, thought that the rest of the blue wall was already lost, and that NV and AZ didn’t matter. 

Thats still the only path to victory for him. Win all 3 of NC, PA, and GA. Lose any of those and the election is lost for him. The polls show it that way too. He’s most likely already lost the rest of the blue wall and the western states don’t matter. 

Kamala has to try to win everything that’s in play outside of those 3 to make it so that unless Trump can win or cheat his way to all 3 of those, she wins. 

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2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Silver or someone like that tweeted that the winner of PA has a 90%+ chance of winning it all.

The constant barrage of political advertising I see in PA says that both campaigns know this as well. Watching football is a beating. Every single commercial break has at least one political ad. 

The overwhelming message from the Trump campaign is that illegal immigrants are ruining everything, inflation is all Kamala’s fault, and she’s soft on crime. That’s it. That’s the extent of their message. Some form of that on repeat.

Also sort of interesting to see that 1 campaign sends a mailer 2-3 times a week while the other campaign hasn’t sent me a single one. 
 

Edit to add that some portion of Trumps advertising also claims that he total has absolutely nothing to do with project 2025. 

Edited by heso
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This seems bad great. Politico:

 

image.thumb.png.7e675aa411db3ec20a20ff73ae6e514d.png

a snip:

Quote

 

Panic is starting to set in.

“The only thing preventing us from having a great night in November is the massive financial disparity our party currently faces,” said Jason Thielman, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee. “We are on a trajectory to win the majority, but unless something changes drastically in the next six weeks, we will lose winnable seats.”

In some ways it’s a familiar place for the party, which has found itself facing a version of this quandary every two years since former President Donald Trump turbocharged Democrats’ small-dollar fundraising. And Republicans are sounding the alarm now because they believe there is still time to fix it.

They know they won’t be able to match Democrats dollar-for-dollar, but they need to narrow the deficit to stay in the game.

But Democrats are reaching new heights, pounding the airwaves with multimillion-dollar ad blitzes while their GOP opponents are still scrambling for funds. In some key Senate battlegrounds, Democrats are so flush with cash that they are outspending Republicans by tens of millions on the air. That’s forced the GOP to lean heavily on super PACs, which can raise unlimited amounts of money but must pay higher rates for the same ad slots.

 

 

Edited by Chopper
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On 8/30/2024 at 10:51 PM, Hank Kingsley said:

Did y'all catch what Trump was saying near the end of this clip? Talking about two flags that blew together and formed a "perfect angel" at the Butler rally? 

I just looked it up. 

 

The guy is completely out of his mind. JFC. 

 

SIAP

 

 

IMG_0175.jpeg

Edited by TheStoicPaisano
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2 minutes ago, Chopper said:

About Pennsylvania, from the same Politico article - perhaps why it's not as strong this year for Dems, so far:

image.thumb.png.2e4ce269cb37e13c78d017868e4c9ecd.png

And yet Casey has been up 6+ in almost every poll lol

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3 minutes ago, Chopper said:

About Pennsylvania, from the same Politico article - perhaps why it's not as strong this year for Dems, so far:

image.thumb.png.2e4ce269cb37e13c78d017868e4c9ecd.png

I’ve seen a lot of anti bob Casey ads recently. Probably the second most common political ad I’ve seen for the last week or so. After anti Kamala ads.

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2 minutes ago, bluto said:

This shit barely registers with me as any one check from a few dozen gop mega asshole donors and it’s all square. 

McCormick is worth like $150-$200m. 

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

Trump about downballot Republicans: 

Crazy Ex Girlfriend Idk GIF

Trump only sees the down ballot candidates as a money maker for him. If they want his endorsement, they need to give him money. Usually by renting out a Trump facility. Pay extra and get a tweet. Pay even more and you get a photo opportunity.

There will be zero money in the other direction.

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41 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Cunt is a little strong, no?  It’s not like she’s running for governor of Arkansas.  

I’m open to other things to call her. Entitled nepo baby

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5 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

Less so when the sums spent are raised $20 to $50 bucks at a time. What is sickening is billionaires effectively buying elections.

Fuck you SCOTUS!

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Quote

“The only thing preventing us from having a great night in November is the massive financial disparity our party currently faces,” said Jason Thielman, the executive director of the National Republican Senatorial Committee.

Well, when you put it THAT way . . .

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21 minutes ago, bluto said:

This shit barely registers with me as any one check from a few dozen gop mega asshole donors and it’s all square. 

I get the cynicism but there's something called the Lowest Unit Rate, which allows presidential campaigns to purchase ads at the lowest rate. Individual PACs can't access those rates. Also as the election nears it can be all but impossible -- especially in swing states -- to find desirable open time slots for ads. Finally, there's also plenty of wealthy individuals spending money for the Democratic side. 

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Also, tv ads are effective in political campaigns but the type of ad (positive, negative, issue-oriented) that's effective varies year to year. That's the conclusion from a study by a Democratic-allied firm. I take this additional conclusion from the same 2024 study as a big positive this year:

the study’s authors also note that the greatest benefits would likely accrue to the best-funded campaigns and groups that can afford to create (and test) many ads in real time, not cash-strapped efforts further down the ballot.

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4 minutes ago, Planet Houston said:

Do you even “Soros funded,” bro?

Cute but I'm talking about a lot of Silicon Valley money and Wall Street, along with other reliable, wealthy, large Democratic donors. 

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1 minute ago, Chopper said:

Cute but I'm talking about a lot of Silicon Valley money and Wall Street, along with other reliable, wealthy, large Democratic donors. 

Yes.....each candidate gets funding from some folks with fat wallets.  But come the fuck on, man.  The delta is insane.  Small dollar donation numbers:

 

Funds raised from small donors

In the 2024 US election campaign season, Kamala Harris has the highest percentage of small donors for any presidential candidate since replacing Joe Biden as the Democratic presidential nominee in July 2024.

Small donors are defined as those contributing less than $200.

Kamala Harris

$209,442,720

Donald Trump

$83,467,443

 

Want to see what the big dollar donors are doing?  Go here.  https://www.opensecrets.org/elections-overview/biggest-donors  13 of the top 20 are almost exclusively donors to Republicans, and the top 4 (which are some BIG numbers) are ALL Republican donors.  Don't "both sides" this shit.  Billionaires and their ilk are a significantly larger source of funds for the GQP than they are for the Dems.

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2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Don't "both sides" this shit.  Billionaires and their ilk are a significantly larger source of funds for the GQP than they are for the Dems.

I'm not "both sidesing" shit. If you thought that was any part of my main point -- edit, or you missed that I was merely responding to a snide comment about Soros -- you missed reading a post or two. 

Edited by Chopper
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