2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Horn Under a Bad Sign 20303]

2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Neighbors on our daily walk route go all out with holiday decorations for Halloween, Xmas and Easter. My next-door neighbor and I are plotting to relocate the Trump signs to the graveyard some night when we get deep into the sauce.

Are you sure they are Trump fans?  Maybe they're suggesting that you'll die and end up like skeletons and a gargoyle will eat your soul if you vote for Trump.

[Mdhorn 5829]

12 hours ago, Underdog said:

Admitting to election interference is just his new shooting someone on 5th Ave. and getting away with it rhetoric. 

Well, SCOTUS said he had immunity to shoot someone, as long sit was an official act.  Turnip thinks everything he does is official and hasn't been told no, so, again, I'm left hoping McDonalds punches above its waist and gets lodged somewhere in his turkey neck.  His staff is all staring at him thinking, I'm not going to go near him--he reeks. So, we get a lot of witnesses to his final moments but no heroes.  

[Mdhorn 5829]

8 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

Walz and his brother aren't on speaking terms.  I've seen this story a thousand times.  One sibling does better than another and the other is either butt hurt about it or thinks they're owed something.  Walz moved to MN and seems to have done well.  The rest are back in bumblefuck Nebraska and wonder why they can't a job without having to leave their little town.  Tim is now "too good for them" or something or they wanted to borrow money and he said no or he did help out and they squandered it or.....

and sometimes they just take the attention and/or money.  As they say, there's always an uncle. 

[Loch Ness Monster 3529]

I've called over 1000 Texans for a certain Dem campaign. Remarkable how there's almost two different realities today. Mostly tried to agree with hardcore Trumpers and tried to get them to go against Ted Cruz.

[atomheartbevo 88913]

7 hours ago, aggie08 said:

Not a damn thing. But, as reprehensible as she is on a ton of other issues, mad respect for completely self-immolating her political career for principles and truth.

Maybe her remaining in the spotlight will help convince other Rs that they'll still be relevant/paid if they leave the cult. Not holding my breath.

Meanwhile, Megan McCain…

[atomheartbevo 88913]

12 hours ago, BamaATL said:

It's increasingly clear to me that CNN deliberately sandbags for the purposes of the fear driven ratings, the Arizona and Pennsylvania numbers being indicative of that.  It's irritating.  

CNN wants Trump to win, Fox News wants Kamala to win.  CNN is a little more blatant.

12 hours ago, Js1 said:

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. economists gamed out the potential economic implications of a Republican or Democratic victory in the November elections, cautioning that US GDP faces a hit in the case of a win for Donald Trump.

“We estimate that if Trump wins in a sweep or with divided government, the hit to growth from tariffs and tighter immigration policy would outweigh the positive fiscal impulse” from maintaining most tax cuts, Goldman economists including Alec Phillips wrote in a note Tuesday.

I keep reminding MAGA relatives that Trump is a real estate developer and has no idea how tariffs work, to no avail.

[atomheartbevo 88913]

2 hours ago, texas08 said:

Ok, so what’s the alternative to x/twatter for normal people? Fuck that platform!!! What a cesspool beginning with that asshole Musk. I was thinking there would be a Tesla in my garage in the not so distant future, but now, fuckkkkkk no. 

Threads or BlueSky.  I like Threads a lot right now because no ads and rarely a bot in site as a result (no money in it for them right now). If you like science or history discussions, you get some really good stuff on there.  I don’t get as much engagement on BlueSky for some stuff I do, and Threads seems to be gaining people at a rapid pace.  It just needs embeds and DMs.

[Willfully Horn 7854]

McCain’s daughter doesn’t support turnip. Nor Harris. Too busy supporting herself.

Edited September 5 by Willfully Horn

[Sawbonz 26808]

11 minutes ago, Willfully Horn said:

McCain’s daughter doesn’t support turnip. Nor Harris. Too busy supporting herself.

[WhatTheBuck 28604]

8 hours ago, Post Oak said:

If you start the email with "team" you're automatically a fucking knob and I have lost what little respect I had for you.

What if you’re a coach?

[cactusflinthead 26989]

 

[cactusflinthead 26989]

Low income voters − those making less than $20,000 a year − now support Harris over former President Donald Trump, 58%-35%, the biggest jump among all groups, according to the poll. It is a reversal from June, when Trump, at 39%, was three points ahead of Biden, at 36% with voters of this economic group.

Overall, Harris leads Trump, 48%-43%, according to the poll, which has a margin of error of 3.1%.

[Fudge Nuggets 18899]

9 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

They will blame democrats.  When you get to a certain point, everything you think is good was done by your team and everything you think is bad was done by the other team.  Maybe if he does establish a dictatorship first it would change but I doubt it. 

I’ll still laugh at them as they blame Democrats from a Nicaragua shanty. 

['stache 21520]

8 hours ago, C-Man said:

 

So Harris with a democratic Congress will finally cut off his socialist gravy train? Yet another reason to vote blue, shut this cunt up forever already.

[DigglerontheHoof 20512]

Imagine making $20K/year and voting for Trump.  I guess there's a good reason they're making that little money.  Fucking morons. 

[Underdog 28118]

5 hours ago, Willfully Horn said:

McCain’s daughter doesn’t support turnip. Nor Harris. Too busy supporting herself.

 

[Pancho 42226]

[Js1 82948]

Allan Lichtman has issued his prediction - Kamala Harris will win the election in November.  He has predicted every election correctly since 1984, with the exception of 2000, which - come on, Gore won. SCOTUS stole it from him. 

She holds the edge with 8 keys, Trump in 3, with 2 not yet decided (foreign policy successes/failures)

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2024/09/05/allan-lichtman-kamala-harris-prediction/

I like him because, even though he (correctly) predicted Trump would win in 2016, he thinks Nate Silver is a doofus. 

 

 

[hornmpa96 2538]

I think he just called Nate an errand boy sent by grocery clerks to pay a bill.

[Snake Diggity 4548]

36 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Holy shit.  6 year degree requirements to work at a daycare?  I need to let Children’s Courtyard know they’re WAY out of compliance.  What an absolutely stupid answer to that question.  The “right” Republican answer to that question is so obvious: “2 things Charlie: first, we’ve got to cut taxes so that dads keep more of their money and can afford for mom to stay home.  Second, we’ve got to cut taxes so that families with 2 working parents keep more of their money and can afford daycare.”

[Hank Kingsley 19998]

I'm happy to see people make fun of Nate Silver too, but Lichtman is a sleazeball grifter and he fucking sucks. 

 

Edited September 5 by Hank Kingsley

[GopherRock 1760]

31 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Allan Lichtman has issued his prediction - Kamala Harris will win the election in November.  He has predicted every election correctly since 1984, with the exception of 2000, which - come on, Gore won. SCOTUS stole it from him. 

She holds the edge with 8 keys, Trump in 3, with 2 not yet decided (foreign policy successes/failures)

https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/us/2024/09/05/allan-lichtman-kamala-harris-prediction/

I like him because, even though he (correctly) predicted Trump would win in 2016, he thinks Nate Silver is a doofus. 

 

If the story is true about her flying eyes-only intelligence about the pending Russian invasion to Kyiv herself in December 2021, that's a foreign policy win.

[C-Man 26617]

I think he just called Nate an errand boy sent by grocery clerks to pay a bill.

Exterminate — with extreme prejudice

[Js1 82948]

Axios reporting Trump campaign is pulling out of Minnesota and Virginia (to go along with New Hampshire) and basically putting all it's resources into PA/GA/NC. 

[bluto 4804]

Not meant at you but duh. Historically speaking has any campaign ever just ignored actual battlegrounds and gone this hard and focused like this? I know taking a defensive position is generally a loser, but this seems like Nazis trying to fortify the coastline level of defense (and we know how that went)

[Js1 82948]

Just now, bluto said:

Not meant at you but duh. Historically speaking has any campaign ever just ignored actual battlegrounds and gone this hard and focused like this? I know taking a defensive position is generally a loser, but this seems like Nazis trying to fortify the coastline level of defense (and we know how that went)

Well the big thing was that there were some questionably-reputable polls showing VA with a Harris +3 lead (Biden won it by 10.1 and this signals those polls were pretty awful.   Also that in 2016, MN was Clinton +1.5 and Virginia was Clinton +5.3

Not surprising Trump is going all-in on GA/PA and defending NC.  Not even mentioning AZ or MI/WI means his campaign knows he has one path and one path only.  

[atomheartbevo 88913]

2 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Imagine making $20K/year and voting for Trump.  I guess there's a good reason they're making that little money.  Fucking morons. 

Some people dream about that barndominium they hope to own one day.

[WhatTheBuck 28604]

32 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Holy shit.  6 year degree requirements to work at a daycare?  I need to let Children’s Courtyard know they’re WAY out of compliance.  What an absolutely stupid answer to that question.  The “right” Republican answer to that question is so obvious: “2 things Charlie: first, we’ve got to cut taxes so that dads keep more of their money and can afford for mom to stay home.  Second, we’ve got to cut taxes so that families with 2 working parents keep more of their money and can afford daycare.”

Gotta get God involved somehow. 

[atomheartbevo 88913]

33 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Holy shit.  6 year degree requirements to work at a daycare?  I need to let Children’s Courtyard know they’re WAY out of compliance.  What an absolutely stupid answer to that question.  The “right” Republican answer to that question is so obvious: “2 things Charlie: first, we’ve got to cut taxes so that dads keep more of their money and can afford for mom to stay home.  Second, we’ve got to cut taxes so that families with 2 working parents keep more of their money and can afford daycare.”

There's a reason why (some) states have stringent requirements about childcare, it's because unlicensed daycares have a habit of cutting corners and getting kids injured and parents filing lawsuits and then screaming at the politicians to "fix this".

I'm guessing most, if not all, of the licensing requirements that daycares and childcare professionals go through are the result of lawyers looking at the various lawsuits, criminal charges, etc. over the years.

[Js1 82948]

36 minutes ago, Snake Diggity said:

Holy shit.  6 year degree requirements to work at a daycare?  

So 6 year degree to work at a daycare, but a HS graduate who served in the military (so probably has massive PTSD) can be a K-12 teacher without a college degree or any formal training. 

Got it. 

[BamaATL 16007]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

So 6 year degree to work at a daycare, but a HS graduate who served in the military (so probably has massive PTSD) can be a K-12 teacher without a college degree or any formal training. 

Got it. 

Or a cop

[The Dog 43083]

26 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Axios reporting Trump campaign is pulling out of Minnesota and Virginia (to go along with New Hampshire) and basically putting all it's resources into PA/GA/NC. 

They're running out of cash.

Keep in mind the Trump campaign is raising plenty of money but it's going elsewhere IMHO. They are skimming like crazy and there's not much dough left for running a presidential campaign. 

[atomheartbevo 88913]

4 hours ago, WhatTheBuck said:

What if you’re a coach?

Head coach or assistant?

[chainsaw 9573]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

They're running out of cash.

Keep in mind the Trump campaign is raising plenty of money but it's going elsewhere IMHO. They are skimming like crazy and there's not much dough left for running a presidential campaign. 

There's the official Trump campaign (hemorrhaging cash, bailing on NH, must comply with FEC stuff) and Dark Money (unlimited, spending wherever and however, totally unaccountable). The dark money ops will still be active in all swing states, I'm sure of it. Play to the whistle.

[Js1 82948]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

They're running out of cash.

Keep in mind the Trump campaign is raising plenty of money but it's going elsewhere IMHO. They are skimming like crazy and there's not much dough left for running a presidential campaign. 

I mean, "raising money," sure, but they raised less than July last month.  Granted, July was a big month (assassination attempt, Biden dropping out, RNC), but they only managed $137.5m in July and $130m in August.  

They couldn't even use the rage baiting of the DNC/Walz's selection to gin up money. 

Harris raised nearly Trump's August amount from the 24 hours after Walz was announced ($36m) and the 4 days of the DNC ($82M).  She's going to have a huge August haul when she announces, and then you will have the debate haul.  2 of Act Blue's biggest donation days in 2020 were the debate + day after (and the day after RBG died). 

[Js1 82948]

Also worth mentioning with Trump pulling out of NH, MN, VA - downballot effects of not having a campaign presence, money or ads: 

NH governor race (open), NH-01 (even) and NH-02 (D+2)
MN-02 (D+1)
VA-02 (R+2), VA-07 (D+1), VA-05 (R+7, but local Republicans want to write in Bob Good, who lost the primary)

 

[Tuco 5031]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

 

And the first part of that...my mom was 52 when I became a dad.  This notion that there are grandparents are typically just sitting waiting to serve as full time daycare is an artifact from when women didn't work and when people didn't move around the country.  Sure, it still happens sometimes, but to have it be the basis for a policy discussion is just idiotic. 

[GopherRock 1760]

40 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Axios reporting Trump campaign is pulling out of Minnesota and Virginia (to go along with New Hampshire) and basically putting all it's resources into PA/GA/NC. 

It's hard to call Minnesota a battleground or purple state when Republicans haven't won shit here since 2010.

[atomheartbevo 88913]

Just now, The Dog said:

They're running out of cash.

Keep in mind the Trump campaign is raising plenty of money but it's going elsewhere IMHO. They are skimming like crazy and there's not much dough left for running a presidential campaign. 

I think the reason why Trump is not on the campaign trail is that he knows he's going to lose and he's decided to try and keep as much cash as possible for his legal defenses.  If you have enough money, you can drag out the legal process quite a long ways.

[Js1 82948]

Just now, atomheartbevo said:

I think the reason why Trump is not on the campaign trail is that he knows he's going to lose and he's decided to try and keep as much cash as possible for his legal defenses.  If you have enough money, you can drag out the legal process quite a long ways.

I'm sure he's just debate prepping for Tuesday

[Js1 82948]

5 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

It's hard to call Minnesota a battleground or purple state when Republicans haven't won shit here since 2010.

I think maybe it was post-debate and pre-Harris. 

It is not now.  It's funny, post-debate, Biden's campaign basically was "can we defend MN/VA/NH and just win MI/WI/PA and eek out a win?" and now it is basically Howard Dean "we are winning AZ and NV and GA and MI and WI and PA and NC!!!! yeahhhhhhh!" while the Trump strategy went from "oh man, we can pick off NM, VA, MN, NH and easily win back GA, MI, PA, WI and win this going away" to "oh fuck, we have to defend NC and try to win back P and GA or we are fucked"

Edited September 5 by Js1

[Brisketexan 103515]

4 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think the reason why Trump is not on the campaign trail is that he knows he's going to lose and he's decided to try and keep as much cash as possible for his legal defenses.  If you have enough money, you can drag out the legal process quite a long ways.

For his legal defenses.  You are adorable.

Trump's plan has only two options.  1) Win the White House, and end the Republic and the rule of law, so there's no need for anyone on team MAGA to have a "legal defense."  Their defense will be "I'm MAGA," and that will be all it takes.  Banana Republic plan.  Or option 2)....wire every last one of those dollars to an offshore account and flee the country.

I am genuinely becoming more and more convinced that if he loses the election in anything close to a convincing fashion, he hauls ass to someplace with no extradition treaty.  

[G650 13195]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

VA-02 (R+2)

 

 

Not anything scientific but I'd be shocked if Cotter Smasal wins. Which sucks as I like her, and voted for her in the primary, but Virginia Beach seems like a super red environment right now.

[Hank Kingsley 19998]

6 minutes ago, Tuco said:

 

And the first part of that...my mom was 52 when I became a dad.  This notion that there are grandparents are typically just sitting waiting to serve as full time daycare is an artifact from when women didn't work and when people didn't move around the country.  Sure, it still happens sometimes, but to have it be the basis for a policy discussion is just idiotic. 

Vance is just pontificating on the right-wing desire of a very white and generationally nuclear family where everyone has privilege and enough money to live that white picket fence life. It's disturbing, obviously. 

 

[Pancho 42226]

42 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Well the big thing was that there were some questionably-reputable polls showing VA with a Harris +3 lead (Biden won it by 10.1 and this signals those polls were pretty awful.   Also that in 2016, MN was Clinton +1.5 and Virginia was Clinton +5.3

Not surprising Trump is going all-in on GA/PA and defending NC.  Not even mentioning AZ or MI/WI means his campaign knows he has one path and one path only.  

It’s so interesting that before Harris, the claim coming from team turnip (and the media) was they had so many paths to victory. Now, that narrative is being put on the Harris campaign.

 

[Js1 82948]

2 minutes ago, G650 said:

 

Not anything scientific but I'd be shocked if Cotter Smasal wins. Which sucks as I like her, and voted for her in the primary, but Virginia Beach seems like a super red environment right now.

Kiggans won by 3.4 in a much redder environment (R+ 2.7 nationally).  We are seeing generic congressional numbers around D+3-5, so it could flip.   

It's currently a lean R race according to Cook.  As I posted in the House thread, the lack of district-level polls means we are prime for some "wtf" kind of upsets in November since no one polled them. 

[G650 13195]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Kiggans won by 3.4 in a much redder environment (R+ 2.7 nationally).  We are seeing generic congressional numbers around D+3-5, so it could flip.   

It's currently a lean R race according to Cook.  As I posted in the House thread, the lack of district-level polls means we are prime for some "wtf" kind of upsets in November since no one polled them. 

Nationally, yes it's not as red, but on the ground here it seems much redder than last time. Not statewide either, but just in district 2. My conversations with the local apparatus and hangers on have had the same tenor. The Trump paraphernalia is probably double this year vis a vis any other election, 20 foot tall billboards, custom painted Cigarette boats, a bunch of wild shit. And Smasal did not get a hell of a lot of money.

[Pato del Muerto 52035]

Finally realized who walz sounds like:

 

comedian Tom papa. 
Though I looked and he grew up in New Jersey. 

[atomheartbevo 88913]

15 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

For his legal defenses.  You are adorable.

Trump's plan has only two options.  1) Win the White House, and end the Republic and the rule of law, so there's no need for anyone on team MAGA to have a "legal defense."  Their defense will be "I'm MAGA," and that will be all it takes.  Banana Republic plan.  Or option 2)....wire every last one of those dollars to an offshore account and flee the country.

I am genuinely becoming more and more convinced that if he loses the election in anything close to a convincing fashion, he hauls ass to someplace with no extradition treaty.  

He’s not campaigning like somebody who thinks he can win, or even like somebody who has a chance at winning.

He’s down a touchdown or two or three and running a prevent offense.

[DaysOff 7682]

11 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

 

 

And it's still a goddamn coin flip.