2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Aqua Buddha 14590]

It had to happen.  Damn if he isn't the coolest pol ever.  29:42 mark:

 

 

[CooterBrown 18006]

Some Trumpers in my hood have a homemade plywood sign that says "TRUMP". They are ultra Christian nationalists, homeschool their seven kids, the dad ran for the state board of education on the platform of abolishing public school, etc.  Someone spray painted on it "We support adultery".  It's been a few days and it's still up.  

[Goredho 17399]

46 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I think the reason why Trump is not on the campaign trail is that he knows he's going to lose and he's decided to try and keep as much cash as possible for his legal defenses.  If you have enough money, you can drag out the legal process quite a long ways.

Or, things are in motion to where votes are mostly irrelevant, like they are in Russian elections.

 

Presidential elections were held in Russia from 15 to 17 March 2024.^[1][2][a] It was the eighth presidential election in the country. The incumbent president Vladimir Putin won with 88% of the vote, the highest percentage in a presidential election in post-Soviet Russia,^[4] gaining a fifth term in what was widely viewed as a foregone conclusion.^[5][6] He was inaugurated on 7 May 2024.^[7][8

 

Russia wants Trump to enjoy similar success in the US.  Trump probably started as just a chaos monkey in the American machine, someone who could amplify divisions in the US and sow discord and occupy our attention with internal strife.  So they elevated him for those reasons.  But now, Trump as U.S. President is almost a requirement for them to achieve any sort of lasting positive outcome in the Ukraine.

A 2019 report by the Senate Intelligence Committee^[163] found "an unprecedented level of activity against state election infrastructure" by Russian intelligence in 2016.^[164] The activity occurred in "all 50 states" and is thought by "many officials and experts" to have been "a trial run ... to probe American defenses and identify weaknesses in the vast back-end apparatus—voter-registration operations, state and local election databases, electronic poll books and other equipment" of state election systems.^[165]The report warned that the United States "remains vulnerable" in the 2020 election.^[164]

Subsequent declassified Intelligence Community assessments and press statements released discussing Russian interference in the 2018 elections, the 2020 elections, and the 2022 elections have likewise concluded or stated that the interference occurred primarily by active measures social media influence campaigns and not by cyberattacks on U.S. elections infrastructure—including by spreading disinformation about the security of the elections infrastructure itself to undermine confidence in U.S. election processes and in democracy in the United States by the American public.^[43][c]

Recent news about Russian bankrolling of Tenet Media and right-wing influencers shows this isn't old news.  Its an ongoing campaign.  If Russia's 2016 probing of state election infrastructure revealed ways to manipulate votes, 2024 is the year where they are going to make use of those findings.  Their future depends on it.

As scary as it is, now is a fascinating time in history.

 

 

Edited September 5 by Goredho

[Js1 85313]

4 minutes ago, Goredho said:

things are in motion to where votes are mostly irrelevant

The EC ensures that is the case, has nothing to do with Trump or Russia.

Unless you're implying Trump is going to rig the 2024 election, despite not having the levers of power nationally or in 6/7 swing states.  When he couldn't even do it as POTUS in 2020. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

3 minutes ago, Goredho said:

now is a fascinating time in history.

If we could just freeze time somewhere between 1994-1998, I think that’s where AI should construct “The Matrix.”

[SydneyCarton 48079]

2 hours ago, Pancho said:

As others have said, this is hilariously made up. As someone who paid an insane amount of money, like 2-3 car payments a month on daycare for ONE child, who was taken care of by a lot of women who struggled to speak english and likely weren't even documented...LOL. 

Daycares pay for cheap labor and charge out the ass for people who can afford it, pocket the difference, just like unbridled capitalism intended. 

[Goredho 17399]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The EC ensures that is the case, has nothing to do with Trump or Russia.

Unless you're implying Trump is going to rig the 2024 election, despite not having the levers of power nationally or in 6/7 swing states.  When he couldn't even do it as POTUS in 2020. 

I'm implying that this finding in the 2019 senate intelligence report on Russian interference in the 2016 election worries me when I see the pro-Russian US Presidential candidate seemingly unconcerned with campaigning in a tight election.

A 2019 report by the Senate Intelligence Committee^[163] found "an unprecedented level of activity against state election infrastructure" by Russian intelligence in 2016.^[164] The activity occurred in "all 50 states" and is thought by "many officials and experts" to have been "a trial run ... to probe American defenses and identify weaknesses in the vast back-end apparatus—voter-registration operations, state and local election databases, electronic poll books and other equipment" of state election systems.^[165]The report warned that the United States "remains vulnerable" in the 2020 election.^[164]

Given that intelligence reports indicate any such ability to directly manipulate voting systems was not exercised in 2018, 2020 or 2022 elections, that could mean that Russia learned nothing useful.  Or it could mean they've been holding their shot for the right time.  If it's the latter, the 2024 election is the right time.

[Goofyboy 3284]

Ok, so what’s the alternative to x/twatter for normal people? Fuck that platform!!! What a cesspool beginning with that asshole Musk. I was thinking there would be a Tesla in my garage in the not so distant future, but now, fuckkkkkk no. 
 

Bluesky. It’s slowly picking up users and is basically Twitter.

[DixonHur 11296]

13 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

 

So, slightly related.  I'm trying to get my new side hustle going.

My dad was a successful Dallas architect, so if anyone needs help designing a shed, house, or skyscraper, please PM me.

[safe sex 11710]

2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I'm happy to see people make fun of Nate Silver too, but Lichtman is a sleazeball grifter and he fucking sucks. 

 

Why? Not disputing your opinion; have just never heard that expressed before. What's Lichtman's deal?

2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I'm happy to see people make fun of Nate Silver too, but Lichtman is a sleazeball grifter and he fucking sucks. 

 

Why? Not disputing your opinion; have just never heard that expressed before. What's Lichtman's deal?

[Thatguy 8687]

13 hours ago, bolverk said:

I understand you had that personal experience in real-time coming from an unexpected source so it struck you more powerfully, but we see that kind of cognitive dissonance/idiocy all of the time:

• "I'm really concerned about the economy. That's why I'm voting for Trump!" (Job growth is generally faster under Dems than Goppers.)
• "I'm really concerned about inflation. That's why I'm voting for Trump!" (His proposed 10% across-the-board tariffs would greatly increase consumer costs.)
• "I'm really concerned about our national debt. That's why I'm voting for Trump!" (His administration and GQP partners in Congress increased the debt by $8 trillion. That's trillion with a T.)

It's akin to those folks mentioned in an article a couple of months ago who blamed Biden for us overturning Roe v Wade without realizing it was Trump's Supreme Court picks who scrapped a 50-year-old precedent. Also, the same goes for Freedumb of Speech advocates who are happy to censor library books.

These people are misinformed, stupid, brainwashed, or some combination of the three. 

Nah, it's more nefarious than that with the adult Trumpers my bro. Get on youtube and watch that guy asking Trumpers their opinions and then when he says Trump has the opposite opinion they switch on the spot to back Trump. These people will take that man's side no matter the issue and we here all know why. It's why no matter what he says or does he doesn't lose support.

As Reagan learned, dog-whistle politics is strong stuff. People will gladly vote against their own interest if it means keeping this country Christian and White. However, they don't want YOU to know that's why they are backing him so they twist themselves in knots trying to make it make sense.

[jimmyjazz 45903]

6 years of education implies a master's degree.  Is there any state in which one must even have a bachelor's degree to work in daycare?

[Js1 85313]

1 minute ago, Thatguy said:

Get on youtube and watch that guy asking Trumpers their opinions and then when he says Trump has the opposite opinion they switch on the spot to back Trump. These people will take that man's side no matter the issue and we here all know why. It's why no matter what he says or does he doesn't lose support.

Yeah, it's called a cult. 

[Thatguy 8687]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, it's called a cult. 

No argument there my friend just yelling in my echo chamber.

 

[WhatTheBuck 28777]

1 hour ago, atomheartbevo said:

He’s not campaigning like somebody who thinks he can win, or even like somebody who has a chance at winning.

He’s down a touchdown or two or three and running a prevent offense.

He’s not planning to use the voting results to return to power. 

[Hank Kingsley 20921]

25 minutes ago, safe sex said:

Why? Not disputing your opinion; have just never heard that expressed before. What's Lichtman's deal?

https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/

[Tuco 5076]

20 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

6 years of education implies a master's degree.  Is there any state in which one must even have a bachelor's degree to work in daycare?

I doubt it.  I think he is conflating daycare with preschool, and state certifications with educational paths that makes it easier to get hired as a director of a preschool.

If you go to most Montessori-type preschools, the director likely has a bachelor or possibly a masters.  That director is also likely the licensee, which requires ongoing certification.  But not everyone who works there (even a Montessori-type preschool) needs to be a licensee.    

[Js1 85313]

4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

https://thepostrider.com/allan-lichtman-is-famous-for-correctly-predicting-the-2016-election-the-problem-he-didnt/

So they're both shitheads.

I still think my favorite Nate shithead moment was when he was asked why he was so bullish on a red wave in 2022 when most of the polling was just right wing spam and he said "well the left-wing pollsters could just do the same" 

Edited September 5 by Js1

[Js1 85313]

GOP pollster has Trump up 53-43 in Alaska.

So.... the same margin as 2020 - Trump won 52.83 to 42.77. 

Peltola is up 46-45, but obviously with RCV, that's about where she wants to be.  This was an NRCC/Begich internal (big caveat), and conveniently did not test second-choice options in a race that is not FTTP. 

Edited September 5 by Js1

[Hank Kingsley 20921]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

So they're both shitheads.

Exactly! 

 

[The Royal We 3072]

1 hour ago, Goofyboy said:

Bluesky. It’s slowly picking up users and is basically Twitter.

This. There's no default algorithm and your feed only shows you posts from people that you actually follow, and in the order that they are posted. It's a bit of a curve to find/follow the people you liked from Twitter, but it's all I use at this point. Fuck Elron.

[chainsaw 9865]

4 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

your feed only shows you posts from people that you actually follow, and in the order that they are posted.

What a concept!!

[Js1 85313]

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/kamala-harris-raised-300-million-august-extending-cash-windfall-rcna169759

Vice President Kamala Harris' political operation raised more than $300 million in the month of August — more than twice as much as former President Donald Trump's operation gathered in the same period — two sources familiar with the Harris fundraising numbers told NBC News. 

[Brisketexan 105097]

6 minutes ago, The Royal We said:

This. There's no default algorithm and your feed only shows you posts from people that you actually follow, and in the order that they are posted. It's a bit of a curve to find/follow the people you liked from Twitter, but it's all I use at this point. Fuck Elron.

But, I mean....Threads has already figured out that it should show me the "do you guys like hot middle aged mom bods?" posters along with the people and topics I follow.  And I appreciate that.

[chainsaw 9865]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

But, I mean....Threads has already figured out that it should show me the "do you guys like hot middle aged mom bods?" posters along with the people and topics I follow.  And I appreciate that.

I'm disappointed in Threads. Please let me know what accounts are posting that so I know which ones to block.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2024-election/kamala-harris-raised-300-million-august-extending-cash-windfall-rcna169759

Vice President Kamala Harris' political operation raised more than $300 million in the month of August — more than twice as much as former President Donald Trump's operation gathered in the same period — two sources familiar with the Harris fundraising numbers told NBC News. 

I’m responsible for $5 of that.  You are all welcome. 

['stache 21803]

21 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I'm disappointed in Threads. Please let me know what accounts are posting that so I know which ones to block.

I wonder if the problem is it feels too much like Instagram? Facebook and Instagram still feel like different products, probably because they started separately, but Threads was literally spun off of Instagram and I just haven't been able to care enough to click over from one to the other. I got a Bluesky login from surly but I don't see anything all that interesting or breaking news from my feed. If only there was a way to get elmo out of the way so it could go back to twitter as it used to be. I never was active but the links to breaking news and jokes was always interesting to me.

[G650 14252]

IG is pretty much the only social media app I use anymore, but I will click over to threads every now and again.

[C-Man 27217]

I doubt it.  I think he is conflating daycare with preschool, and state certifications with educational paths that makes it easier to get hired as a director of a preschool.
If you go to most Montessori-type preschools, the director likely has a bachelor or possibly a masters.  That director is also likely the licensee, which requires ongoing certification.  But not everyone who works there (even a Montessori-type preschool) needs to be a licensee.    

WGAF? You’ve given that question more thought than JD. He’s completely out of touch with reality on a great many things, including this one.

[Chopper 17230]

4 hours ago, Snake Diggity said:

The “right” Republican answer to that question is so obvious: “2 things Charlie: first, we’ve got to cut taxes so that dads keep more of their money and can afford for mom to stay home.  Second, we’ve got to cut taxes so that families with 2 working parents keep more of their money and can afford daycare.”

Are you saying the "right" Republican answer is correct, though? Because day care averages 18k to 30k, or so I'm told. The marginal difference from a tax cut to a middle, or lower, income family wouldn't make a dent in the cost. A tax cut wouldn't address what's already a shortage in child care facilities.

[Jive Turkey 12594]

 

[Js1 85313]

He sounds worse than Joe did at the debate. He’s going to be on every upper known to man on Tuesday night 

['stache 21803]

17 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Are you saying the "right" Republican answer is correct, though? Because day care averages 18k to 30k, or so I'm told. The marginal difference from a tax cut to a middle, or lower, income family wouldn't make a dent in the cost. A tax cut wouldn't address what's already a shortage in child care facilities.

I assume he's saying its the "right" answer for the right-wing audience that just loves being lied to about basic economics. These are the same people that think school vouchers will allow more middle class families to send their kids to private school when every example of the program in every location is that private schools just jack their rates up equal to the voucher and nobody gets ahead except the private school industry, which of course is the point because most of those schools are Christian schools, because if there's one thing the Vatican needs, its more money.

Edited September 5 by 'stache

[Snake Diggity 4622]

18 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Are you saying the "right" Republican answer is correct, though? Because day care averages 18k to 30k, or so I'm told. The marginal difference from a tax cut to a middle, or lower, income family wouldn't make a dent in the cost. A tax cut wouldn't address what's already a shortage in child care facilities.

Fuck no it’s not actually right.  But at least he could say the “normal” bullshit that Republican politicians can say that people can understand (if disagree with).  What he said should throw off even the most red voter.  NO ONE who heard that was like “yep, that’s what we need to do to address childcare costs”.

[kevwun 15774]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

He sounds worse than Joe did at the debate. He’s going to be on every upper known to man on Tuesday night 

Good, it will make him say more insane shit than normal and be less inhibited about cropping an n-bomb.

Edited September 5 by kevwun

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

Trump is promising gas below $2/gallon. Might have to go ask the O&G thread how they feel about that outcome.

But seriously this is just Trump running for 5th grade class president by promising no homework. I fully expect that before Election Day he will promise to eliminate all income tax on day 1.

[Chewbacca 7773]

3 hours ago, GopherRock said:

It's hard to call Minnesota a battleground or purple state when Republicans haven't won shit here since 2010.

I don't hear it much anymore, but there was a long time after CO turned blue that you'd hear people refer to us as a battleground state.  Republican hasn't won statewide office since Cory Gardner got a Senate seat in 2014.  And before that it was probably Bill Owens being re-elected to be Governor in 2004.

['stache 21803]

6 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Trump is promising gas below $2/gallon. Might have to go ask the O&G thread how they feel about that outcome.

But seriously this is just Trump running for 5th grade class president by promising no homework. I fully expect that before Election Day he will promise to eliminate all income tax on day 1.

My favorite is when O&G people I know discuss the benefits to their industry when oil prices go up, then go on facebook and complain about the president and high gas prices. It makes me ragey to no end.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

yeah, calling MN or CO a battle ground state would be the same if Dems called Iowa or Missouri battleground states. Maybe they used to be, and it's not a 100% impossibility but it would take extraordinary circumstances for any of these states to flip.

[chainsaw 9865]

Just now, Nice Guy Eddie said:

yeah, calling MN or CO a battle ground state would be the same if Dems called Iowa or Missouri battleground states. Maybe they used to be, and it's not a 100% impossibility but it would take extraordinary circumstances for any of these states to flip.

You need a very high favorability brand name to even consider it, and incredibly moderate bona fides, like Phil Scott of Vermont or Larry Hogan of Maryland (and even then you can lose).

[Nice Guy Eddie 13511]

6 minutes ago, 'stache said:

My favorite is when O&G people I know discuss the benefits to their industry when oil prices go up, then go on facebook and complain about the president and high gas prices. It makes me ragey to no end.

I have one friend who can't not complain about gas prices if you spend more than 1 hour with him. He also works from home, and probably fills up his truck once per month.

He also earns big dollars from a software company that sells to O&G majors. He has disagreed that any higher energy prices have put a $1 in his pocket. Come on man. 

[Js1 85313]

The one major union who hasn’t endorsed yet. They weren’t invited to speak at the DNC

 

[Chopper 17230]

Another reason to ignore Nate Silver and whatever's coming from Polymarket - they're each funded by a leading supporter of fascism, Peter Theil https://www.coindesk.com/business/2024/07/17/polymarket-hires-nate-silver-after-taking-in-265m-of-bets-on-us-election-report/

[Pancho 44759]

17 hours ago, Post Oak said:

If you start the email with "team" you're automatically a fucking knob and I have lost what little respect I had for you.

I start my emails to my team with “Folks” a la Uncle Joe

 

 

 

 

 

My fav gif comes to the rescue yet again

[Aqua Buddha 14590]

28 minutes ago, 'stache said:

My favorite is when O&G people I know discuss the benefits to their industry when oil prices go up, then go on facebook and complain about the president and high gas prices. It makes me ragey to no end.

I think you and I are about the same age, which means we grew up in OK in the 80's and 90's.  Sure, we had $1 gas but the economy there was a flaming barrel of shit.

[Pancho 44759]

 

[DigglerontheHoof 21191]

6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I start my emails to my team with “Folks” a la Uncle Joe

 

 

 

 

 

My fav gif comes to the rescue yet again

He's SO FUCKING STUPID!

[texasdago 7572]

11 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I start my emails to my team with “Folks” a la Uncle Joe

 

 

 

 

 

My fav gif comes to the rescue yet again

[Js1 85313]

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Nate - Oh Harris up 1 in PA? That’s basically down 3 after I adjust them 

Also Trump - 46, 45, 44, 43

There’s that ceiling again 

[Horn Dogg 3895]

3 hours ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

If we could just freeze time somewhere between 1994-1998, I think that’s where AI should construct “The Matrix.”

Fine with me, but you need to glitch in the 2005 college football season somehow.