2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[BurntOrange&White 39221]

12 minutes ago, Superhero said:

 

But I'd like whatever you're snorting, ingesting, smoking or shooting on a Monday morning.

Correction, I didn't realize I had Ohio for democrats.

 

Updated to reflect correction:

 

[Js1 84939]

43 minutes ago, Chopper said:

There are barely any high-quality state polls anymore. Good polling is expensive, and our media has been captured by corporate interests which are for the most part only concerned with profits. That's why there's so many shitty national polls. It didn't used to be this way. For example, Gallup used to do public polling on behalf of media clients but there's no longer demand for the type of extensive pre-election research they'd do in the public sphere. 

This is a big one.  You might get a handful of legitimate polling forms (Quinnipiac, Marist, NYT/Siena, Marquette, Suffolk, UMass, Selzer) and whoever CNN/Fox News contract out to, but for the most part, it's a bunch of crap, compounded by being right-wing spam crap, like Insider Advantage, Trafalgar, Emerson, etc. 

There's not too many left-wing spam polls - maybe Data for Progress. PPP used to poll A LOT back in the day, especially at the district level, and now they rarely commission a new poll. 

2016/18/20 saw a lot of really good high quality district-level polling, especially by NYT/Siena, and now - *crickets* 

[Jive Turkey 12511]

2 hours ago, 4th&Five said:

 

don't stop being you, Allysia.

 

[Chad Fuck 17454]

2 hours ago, Pato del Muerto said:

And they picked on a group that cannot defend themselves at the ballot box. 

This is worth repeating as it's a key facet of authoritarians.  Pick an out group and punch down on them.

 

[Brisketexan 104215]

Just to put the cascade of lies on JUST THIS ONE TOPIC in one place:

 

[SydneyCarton 47808]

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

I texted my folks about this over the weekend. They’re former Republicans who saw the light in 2020 and now vote Dem. But their friends and family are probably 80%+ MAGA imbeciles. And at least my mom refuses to consider that maybe her dear friends are shitheads. 

My point was this: Trump and Vance are spreading vile, Nazi-style blood libel. It will get people hurt or killed. Anyone who continues to support them at this point is a bad person. It doesn’t matter that they go to your church or root for the same baseball team or take good care of their lawn. We’ve seen this playbook before and everyone knows it’s evil and the key that, throughout history, opens the door to atrocity. If your friends or family vote for Trump knowing he’s scapegoating an innocent minority group for political gain, they are evil. 

And she said?

[Gatorubet 29990]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Just to put the cascade of lies on JUST THIS ONE TOPIC in one place:

 

“I bet that concept has no money for welfare Queens or illegal immigrants. So I’m going with Trump.”

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

Anyone else more scared of JD Vance than Trump? Vance seems like the ultimate piece of shit. Trump is more clueless and wants people to tell him how great he is.

[Brisketexan 104215]

Just now, Loch Ness Monster said:

Anyone else more scared of JD Vance than Trump? Vance seems like the ultimate piece of shit. Trump is more clueless and wants people to tell him how great he is.

They are each equally malevolent, evil, and dangerous, just in different ways.  It's like arguing about whether your more concerned about being immolated by a volcanic eruption or smashed and drowned by a tsunami.  Both are instruments of mass destruction and suffering, just via different vehicles.

[locodos 5326]

1 hour ago, WhatTheBuck said:

See the uptick in violence against Asians amidst Trump’s rhetoric about the “China Virus” and “Kung Flu.”

THIS.  in fucking furiating!  My MIL is 4'8" sweetest lady you'll ever meet.  Kind, friendly, but her English is heavily accented.  She is scared to go out in public alone now.  She's been accosted and made to feel uncomfortable in a country she's been a citizen of for over 50 years!

My wife (Chinese decent born in the Florida) and I (basic white boy) are used to causal racism, and it always sucks. In the US, it had mostly become a non-issue / pretty rare.  But During/After Covid it felt like we got drug back 30yrs with more people being overtly assholish and racist. Especially to her and especially when I wasn't around.  Fucking cowards.   Oh and not just the white folks either.

My son had kids at school tell him to go back to his own country.  I told him that he should ask if they are American Indian, and if not, tell them to get fucked!   His family has been here since Jamestown.

The other fun little thing these assholes do is equate ethnicity to some imagined magical bond to a far away country and political scheme.   Mother fucker, my MIL flew halfway across the planet alone as a 13yr old to ESCAPE communism!  JFC I guarantee they hate the Chinese government more completely than any ignorant Fox yokel.  They lost everything and worked their asses to be free and live the American dream.  Unlike the Cosplaytriots who just happened to be born here.

Fuck them all!  Sorry for the rant, FUCK!

[TexasEd 8057]

27 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Anyone else more scared of JD Vance than Trump? Vance seems like the ultimate piece of shit. Trump is more clueless and wants people to tell him how great he is.

I would not put Vance above being LBJ in the conspiracy theory universe where he is in cahoots with Russia to Get control of the White House by any means necessary.  Even Carl Spackler on the golf course. 

Edited September 16 by TexasEd

[The Original Greaser Bob 2768]

25 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They are each equally malevolent, evil, and dangerous, just in different ways.  It's like arguing about whether your more concerned about being immolated by a volcanic eruption or smashed and drowned by a tsunami.  Both are instruments of mass destruction and suffering, just via different vehicles.

"More than any other time in history, mankind faces a crossroads. One path leads to despair and utter hopelessness. The other, to total extinction. Let us pray we have the wisdom to choose correctly."  Woody Allen, "My Speech to the Graduates" 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2768]

6 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

I would not put Vance above being LBJ in the conspiracy theory universe where he is in cahoots with Russia to Get control of the White House by any means necessary.  Even Carl Spackler on the golf course. 

I take umbrage at you putting Vance and LBJ in the same sentence.  

[Loch Ness Monster 3533]

1 hour ago, BrickHorn said:

My point was this: Trump and Vance are spreading vile, Nazi-style blood libel. It will get people hurt or killed. Anyone who continues to support them at this point is a bad person. It doesn’t matter that they go to your church or root for the same baseball team or take good care of their lawn. We’ve seen this playbook before and everyone knows it’s evil and the key that, throughout history, opens the door to atrocity. If your friends or family vote for Trump knowing he’s scapegoating an innocent minority group for political gain, they are evil. 

Immigrants and minorities have always been targeted for blame. Hell during the Great Depression we rounded up LEGAL Mexican nationality but American born citizens and deported them. Or convinced Ford to lay them off so America could get rid of them.

Most of my MAGA family members are scared immigrants are taking jobs and their children's future jobs. They are definitely mostly pieces of shit but that's the reasoning. That and 90% of the people around them are Republicans and don't want to be an outcast.

Something ridiculous like 50% of Americans can't afford a $500 unexpected expense. They are struggling and want someone to blame.

Edited September 16 by Loch Ness Monster

[locodos 5326]

2 minutes ago, Loch Ness Monster said:

Immigrants and minorities have always been targeted for blame. Hell during the Great Depression we rounded up LEGAL Mexican nationality but American born citizens and deported them. Or convinced Ford to lay them off so America could get rid of them.

Most of my MAGA family members are scared immigrants are taking jobs and their children's future jobs. They are definitely mostly pieces of shit but that's the reasoning. That and 90% of the people around them are Republicans and don't want to be an outcast.

Hit 'em with this...

[chainsaw 9791]

9 minutes ago, locodos said:

His family has been here since Jamestown.

There's your problem right there

[locodos 5326]

Just now, chainsaw said:

There's your problem right there

Hey I was hoping for some exotic DNA...  Family rumor that a great great... grandmother was Creek Indian....  the DNA results...  LULZ I make Mayo seem exotic.

[TexasEd 8057]

11 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

I take umbrage at you putting Vance and LBJ in the same sentence.  

I said in the conspiracy theory universe. 

[Dahobbs 17314]

21 minutes ago, locodos said:

THIS.  in fucking furiating!  My MIL is 4'8" sweetest lady you'll ever meet.  Kind, friendly, but her English is heavily accented.  She is scared to go out in public alone now.  She's been accosted and made to feel uncomfortable in a country she's been a citizen of for over 50 years!

My wife (Chinese decent born in the Florida) and I (basic white boy) are used to causal racism, and it always sucks. In the US, it had mostly become a non-issue / pretty rare.  But During/After Covid it felt like we got drug back 30yrs with more people being overtly assholish and racist. Especially to her and especially when I wasn't around.  Fucking cowards.   Oh and not just the white folks either.

My son had kids at school tell him to go back to his own country.  I told him that he should ask if they are American Indian, and if not, tell them to get fucked!   His family has been here since Jamestown.

The other fun little thing these assholes do is equate ethnicity to some imagined magical bond to a far away country and political scheme.   Mother fucker, my MIL flew halfway across the planet alone as a 13yr old to ESCAPE communism!  JFC I guarantee they hate the Chinese government more completely than any ignorant Fox yokel.  They lost everything and worked their asses to be free and live the American dream.  Unlike the Cosplaytriots who just happened to be born here.

Fuck them all!  Sorry for the rant, FUCK!

My dad purchased a gun because of threats associated with China Virus and concerns about racist assaults. Honestly, he went a little off the deep end, but not without reason. Fucking infuriating. 

[Surly Bevo 24667]

47 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

They are each equally malevolent, evil, and dangerous, just in different ways.  It's like arguing about whether your more concerned about being immolated by a volcanic eruption or smashed and drowned by a tsunami.  Both are instruments of mass destruction and suffering, just via different vehicles.

I thought it was "am I more concerned about being eaten by sharks or being electrocuted by a boat battery"?

Edited September 16 by Surly Bevo

[Js1 84939]

Big Village (national)

Harris 51, Trump 43 (+8) 

Last poll was Harris +4

[locodos 5326]

1 minute ago, Dahobbs said:

My dad purchased a gun because of threats associated with China Virus and concerns about racist assaults. Honestly, he went a little off the deep end, but not without reason. Fucking infuriating. 

Welp, I already had plenty of guns and the wife and I both have concealed carry licenses.  I rarely rarely carried, but I do now sometimes (still not often).   I'm not a tactical bro, at all, so I would rather turn the other cheek and walk away than escalate.  But since Covid it doesn't feel like they just want to insult you anymore, it feels like they want to do real harm.  Call me a race traitor all you want, I'll laugh that weak shit off.  During the pandemic I've had a few folks bow up and stare like they wanted to go.

[Satchel 6908]

On 9/15/2024 at 7:31 AM, Js1 said:

ABC - Harris 52-46 (+6)

Selzer has Trump 47-44 in Iowa. She’s the gold standard of polling 

 

If Trump is only up by 4 in Iowa, we could be talking an Obama style blowout in a couple of months.

[Js1 84939]

Just now, Satchel said:

If Trump is only up by 4 in Iowa, we could be talking an Obama style blowout in a couple of months.

I did caveat that Selzer, the gold standard of polling, had the race tied in September 2020 in Iowa, but her October poll was far more accurate (Trump +7).  

If her October poll shows Harris down 4, then I'm going to believe in a 2008 blowout where NC and FL flip. 

[TexasEd 8057]

Just now, Satchel said:

If Trump is only up by 4 in Iowa, we could be talking an Obama style blowout in a couple of months.

Can we hope for Reagan Mondale numbers in Harris’ favor?

[Js1 84939]

 

Last remaining one off the board so far.  

[MissingInAction 24706]

That's Huge!

[Brisketexan 104215]

Just now, MissingInAction said:

That's Huge!

That's not what she said.

[TexEx15 17400]

4 hours ago, Js1 said:

Harris has held solid leads in WI, MI and now even Trafalgar has her up in NV (by what would be a healthy margin, considering their lean)

That is 257

She has led in several high-quality NC polls - that is all she needs to put her over 270.  GA/AZ/PA is running up the score and I fully expect that she will win all 3

There's an expectation of several high-quality PA polls coming this week (FINALLY) to see where this race really is. 

 

2 hours ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Correction, I didn't realize I had Ohio for democrats.

 

Updated to reflect correction:

 

Right now I think a realistic best case scenario is a 2020 map with NC flipping, which gives Harris a clean 100 electoral vote win. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

That's not what she said.

N.B.: LBJ has clearly been discussed on this page.

[Satchel 6908]

On a more serious note, I’ve thought about this quite a bit over the last couple of days. If my candidate took to social to tell the world that he  hates a private citizen who has done nothing to him, knowing that he could cause said citizen harm, I don’t think I could in good conscience vote for that candidate.

[MissingInAction 24706]

1 minute ago, Satchel said:

On a more serious note, I’ve thought about this quite a bit over the last couple of days. If my candidate took to social to tell the world that he  hates a private citizen who has done nothing to him, knowing that he could cause said citizen harm, I don’t think I could in good conscience vote for that candidate.

That's because you aren't a magat piece of shit.

[Red Five 40573]

Just now, Satchel said:

On a more serious note, I’ve thought about this quite a bit over the last couple of days. If my candidate took to social to tell the world that he  hates a private citizen who has done nothing to him, knowing that he could cause said citizen harm, I don’t think I could in good conscience vote for that candidate.

"Nobody's perfect.... I'm voting for the policies, not the person...You could say the same things about Harris..." etc. etc. etc. 

But to build on what you said, if my preferred policies were producing absolute fucking monsters and ghouls, I might give consideration to changing my views. Just a thought. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

Perhaps our society rewards sociopathic behavior too much? 

[Longhorn_Fan68 33777]

10 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

That's not what she said.

[Satchel 6908]

1 minute ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

Perhaps our society rewards sociopathic behavior too much? 

Seriously. To think that one who aspires to be POTUS would would publicly declare his hatred for an entertainer is scary.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2768]

I just had Covid last week and I made a "China virus" joke and it did not fare well.

Between that and the fact that I yell "mao!" (from the Deer Hunter) anytime someone suggests getting Asian food, my family has had enough.

[Chopper 17039]

Wow

[Js1 84939]

24 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

Right now I think a realistic best case scenario is a 2020 map with NC flipping, which gives Harris a clean 100 electoral vote win. 

Until I see otherwise re: Florida/Texas, I agree.

Polling-wise, Arizona is the one that looks most in danger, but it's been a while since we've had a high quality poll.  MI, WI, NV, NC look the best.  GA/AZ/PA look like the toss-ups and NC has had the most favorable of polling for Harris among Trump 2020 states.

The Democrat's Senate campaign arm seems to see something in FL and TX, but that could be ticket splitting against Cruz/Scott and not anything for Harris, as of yet. I'd have to actually see a poll that has Harris within the MOE in TX/FL to even laughably entertain them flipping.

Easy to send Doug to The Villages and Walz to raise some cash in Dallas, but for now, Harris doesn't need to be in TX/FL until and unless polling says otherwise.  NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA, GA, NC are where Harris needs to set up temporary residences until November.  Even if the Trump campaign appears to have written off MI, WI, NV. 

[closetohumping 17339]

Posted this in another thread but I think it’s more fitting here.   It’s time for change.  I can’t handle four more years of democracy:

 

[Satchel 6908]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Until I see otherwise re: Florida/Texas, I agree.

Polling-wise, Arizona is the one that looks most in danger, but it's been a while since we've had a high quality poll.  MI, WI, NV, NC look the best.  GA/AZ/PA look like the toss-ups and NC has had the most favorable of polling for Harris among Trump 2020 states.

The Democrat's Senate campaign arm seems to see something in FL and TX, but that could be ticket splitting against Cruz/Scott and not anything for Harris, as of yet. I'd have to actually see a poll that has Harris within the MOE in TX/FL to even laughably entertain them flipping.

Easy to send Doug to The Villages and Walz to raise some cash in Dallas, but for now, Harris doesn't need to be in TX/FL until and unless polling says otherwise.  NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA, GA, NC are where Harris needs to set up temporary residences until November.  Even if the Trump campaign appears to have written off MI, WI, NV. 

20% of Haitian Americans voted for Trump on ‘16. There are over 700k registered Haitian voters in Florida, the largest number in the country. Don’t be surprised if this bloc’s turnout proves to be determinative in November.

[Underdog 28371]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

And she said?

Hey ramblin' boy, now won't you settle down?

[Red Five 40573]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Until I see otherwise re: Florida/Texas, I agree.

Polling-wise, Arizona is the one that looks most in danger, but it's been a while since we've had a high quality poll.  MI, WI, NV, NC look the best.  GA/AZ/PA look like the toss-ups and NC has had the most favorable of polling for Harris among Trump 2020 states.

The Democrat's Senate campaign arm seems to see something in FL and TX, but that could be ticket splitting against Cruz/Scott and not anything for Harris, as of yet. I'd have to actually see a poll that has Harris within the MOE in TX/FL to even laughably entertain them flipping.

Easy to send Doug to The Villages and Walz to raise some cash in Dallas, but for now, Harris doesn't need to be in TX/FL until and unless polling says otherwise.  NV, AZ, MI, WI, PA, GA, NC are where Harris needs to set up temporary residences until November.  Even if the Trump campaign appears to have written off MI, WI, NV. 

It's going to be entertaining on election night when Dotard is screaming "There was massive election fraud in Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and North Carolina!!". Because all of the fraud is somehow only located in the states he loses by the closest margins (although I think he actually said at one point that he won California in 2020. JFC). 

 

[Chewbacca 7665]

3 hours ago, InkaUtexas said:

J 6 was not about body count. It was about mass hysteria and taking over the government. How many died in the Reichstag fire? Even if the Berlin FD has put it out, saving the building, etc, the action alone created what the Nazi asswipes needed to continue their propaganda rule. Every extreme group needs a date. I do not think they were going to hang all of congress, etc. I think they wanted to show that they could. Michigan is another story. There they were going to end up killing the Governor if they got away with it.

I think if they had managed to catch AOC or Pelosi, we might have had a Congress death on our hands. And I think that's what Trump wanted, TBH.

[Js1 84939]

 

[InkaUtexas 25257]

8 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

I think if they had managed to catch AOC or Pelosi, we might have had a Congress death on our hands. And I think that's what Trump wanted, TBH.

Perhaps. And Pence since he was seen as a traitor. The others are enemies of the under-represented masses just trying to live the merican dream.

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

DO NOT POST HIS GOLF PLANS.....

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

I have some ancestors from Haiti but they had to flee for some reason to Jamaica and New Orleans sometime in the mid 1790s. 

[InkaUtexas 25257]

3 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

I have some ancestors from Haiti but they had to flee for some reason to Jamaica and New Orleans sometime in the mid 1790s. 

So residents of St. Dominique.

[Hugo Stiglitz 23355]

That’s what the records say

[Derka 5819]