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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Was listening to a story on npr today about undecided voters. Not really an earth shattering statement, but I'm guessing 90% of the undecided voters are gop voters that are struggling to vote for Trump. I can't imagine there are too many dems that have a problem voting for Kamala. So they either go for her, or stay home. Win, win. 

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14 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Every sane person knows PA is going to be razor thin. It’s why I asked do we need PA to claim victory on election night because they will still be counting days later.

It will depend how much mail this time around. The ratio of Dem to GOP mail requests are on par with 2020, but WAY less requests total. More people will vote in person everywhere but the states with primarily mail-in voting like CO, NV, AZ, WA, CA, etc

Fetterman was declared the winner just before 1am ET on November 9 during the midterms. So we knew that night 

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1 minute ago, TexEx15 said:

In my fever dream FL goes for Harris early and it’s a stress free night.

That's my dream too. But this guy was very dismissive of it.

He says that neither Harris nor Walz will do any significant campaigning there, and he doesn't know if would benefit them or DMP if they did.

We have to hope that having abortion on the ticket is enough to prove him wrong.

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10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

2008 is best case for Dems. Sure feels like 2020 + NC is the likely 

Yeah, 2020 + North Carolina seems like the high-water mark for Kamala. The abortion referendum isn't going to get her across the wire first in Florida. 

The only way this changes is if things go completely off the rails for the GOP. With Trump at the helm, this remains a distinct possibility. 

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5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

And js1 already took off Wednesday, so imma be on coverage all night until either Harris is seen as the winner and I go streaking down the street or 2016 redux and I chugged a bottle of wine and passed out 

You having a watch party? Can I come

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:


I’m telling you, both of them with Rogan or Theo or one of the other right-leaning but not explicitly Republican podcasts would have a higher potential rate of return than almost anything else they could do.

It couldn’t hurt. Even if it only changed 2% of minds. That can be a difference maker 

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15 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Was listening to a story on npr today about undecided voters. Not really an earth shattering statement, but I'm guessing 90% of the undecided voters are gop voters that are struggling to vote for Trump. I can't imagine there are too many dems that have a problem voting for Kamala. So they either go for her, or stay home. Win, win. 

What is it these undecided Republicans are mulling? 

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54 minutes ago, quigley said:

Apparently, internal data isn't that rosy.

I spoke with someone today who is a donor to big Democratic PACs. PA, especially White men, aren't voting for Harris. Biggest advantage in PA is the lack of ground game by Trump.

The donor's surprised how well Harris is doing in GA and NC. He thinks GA will go to Harris. Terrible GOP governor candidate may be enough of a drag on Trump to allow Harris to pull ahead.

For the Senate, he says MT is lost, and FL and TX are pipe dreams. He's Allred's friend. The donor's quite progressive and frustrated at the tenor of Allred's stealth campaign. But, because of Allred's background, he thinks Colin's plan is logical. He, himself, has donated a bunch to all the competitive Senate races, but is pessimistic.

 

 

30 minutes ago, quigley said:

Based on what this guy's saying, a 2008-type win is very unlikely. The goal is a really close win for Harris, eek out a majority in the House, and prayer for the Senate.

This same guy was nervously optimistic about Clinton in 2016 and confident in a Biden win in 2020.

Its hilarious how much money goes into this shit and no one knows shit about fuck. 

It wouldn't be that hard to modernize polling and get really good data, but the people running the campaigns and polling are fucking dinosaurs who don't know how to computer. Steve Bannon with fucking Cambridge Analytica figured out a path in 2016 where there wasn't one. 

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7 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Having to vote for a Democrat for the first time in their lives. The couple in the story were in their late 60s.

And, all their friends and family are likely hardcore Republican.

Without Trump, who is electable on a national scale? People like mtg can dominate their local scene but have no chance nationally and that is all the Republicans have for prospects.

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Arizona soundly rejected sore losers and election deniers in 20/22. The two biggest sore losers and election deniers are at the top of the ticket. Arizona. Will. Be. Blue. I don’t give a shit what polling says.

Another interesting question re: AZ is that for decades Chicago was #1 city for inmigration to Phoenix. For the last 5-6 years it’s switched to LA. What isn’t known yet is are all these people leaving LA to escape LA politics or are they bringing their LA politics with them.

Shitload of people from LA (and elsewhere in CA, but mostly LA) have moved to Phoenix.
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1 hour ago, Biff Tannen said:

Real question:  Why is "internal" data supposedly better than all the other bullshit polls we see everywhere?

I know this was in regards to something else but in general when internal polling is made public, it's no more reliable than a public poll. The polling may be better, the polling may be worse, there would usually be an ulterior motive for releasing it. Treat all polls as suspect. 

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9 minutes ago, Chopper said:

I know this was in regards to something else but in general when internal polling is made public, it's no more reliable than a public poll. The polling may be better, the polling may be worse, there would usually be an ulterior motive for releasing it. Treat all polls as suspect. 

Yeah, a guy giving lots of money to PACs then been given sandbag info and encouraged to then pony up more, why I never.  

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41 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

This is what I think no polls can capture.

i’m not sure the polls can capture hope.  I haven’t lived in Florida since 1979, but my liberal friends in Florida have been slowly beaten down for such a long time, losing most every election, that a lot of them just gave up hope and quit volunteering and sometimes not even voting when they thought it was a lost cause.   That can be contagious. If Florida Democrats start believing they will win, maybe they have a puncher’s chance with an abortion issue on the ballot - and a glimmer of hope for the first time in a decade that they can win. 

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3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

i’m not sure the polls can capture hope.  I haven’t lived in Florida since 1979, but my liberal friends in Florida have been slowly beaten down for such a long time, losing most every election, that a lot of them just gave up hope and quit volunteering and sometimes not even voting when they thought it was a lost cause.   That can be contagious. If Florida Democrats start believing they will win, maybe they have a puncher’s chance with an abortion issue on the ballot - and a glimmer of hope for the first time in a decade that they can win. 

Living in Texas I totally get it. Oh, to live in a blue state. 

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Another interesting question re: AZ is that for decades Chicago was #1 city for inmigration to Phoenix. For the last 5-6 years it’s switched to LA. What isn’t known yet is are all these people leaving LA to escape LA politics or are they bringing their LA politics with them.

Shitload of people from LA (and elsewhere in CA, but mostly LA) have moved to Phoenix.

Well, there’s LA and there’s Orange County. Seems that most of the Californians who have fled for Texas are the ones with shitty politics.
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3 minutes ago, heso said:

The new Trump ad in PA during Monday night football is an entirely context free clip of Kamala in a 2019 dem primary town hall saying that she’d ban fracking. Then saying that 120,000 fracking jobs in PA will vanish if she’s elected. 

Just to give an update on ads in Georgia, I'd say it's 3 or 4 to one in terms of volume in favor of Harris.  Trump ads mostly make claims like we are paying 3 times as much for gas (which is humorous, as gas today was $2.82 a gallon, which when one considers inflation, is actually significantly lower than when he was in office (easily over $3 per gallon, pre-inflation)).  His ads are blaming housing costs on Harris, along with grocery inflation.  Then we get some weird ones with no talking just showing a black family at a pool with "Trump" written (it's fucking really weird).  The Harris ads a very effective in my mind, mostly about not going back, forcing corporations and billionaires to pay their share, attacking 2025 and tariffs.  

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1 hour ago, quigley said:

I spoke with someone today who is a donor to big Democratic PACs. PA, especially White men, aren't voting for Harris. Biggest advantage in PA is the lack of ground game by Trump.

I have a hard time believing this, because Trump (and Vance) has done nothing over the past few weeks (going back to Arlington and looking like a weak-ass clown in the debate) to make a bunch of people who voted Biden to switch from Biden (and now Harris) to Trump. If anything, Trump is even more of a butt of a lot of jokes with the eat the dogs stuff, and he's looking like a fucking moron listening to (and hanging all over) Laura Loomer (complete with the 9/11 stuff), and the GOP is being forced to defend racist bullshit (and Vance is fueling the flames with this "fried chicken" comment).

This is what I think is the deal with a lot of white guys though vvvvvvv

1 hour ago, Mo Horn said:

Was listening to a story on npr today about undecided voters. Not really an earth shattering statement, but I'm guessing 90% of the undecided voters are gop voters that are struggling to vote for Trump. I can't imagine there are too many dems that have a problem voting for Kamala. So they either go for her, or stay home. Win, win. 

Or struggling to even show up to vote in the first place.

Edited by atomheartbevo
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Internal polling is better because they have all the data of who are they culling. 

All you need to know about internal polling is that Kamala is super confident while Trump is freaking the fuck out about tay tay and saying he hates her.

This still should not be an excuse to let up, we are the players in the game if we don't do our part we lose.

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14 minutes ago, C-Man said:


Well, there’s LA and there’s Orange County. Seems that most of the Californians who have fled for Texas are the ones with shitty politics.

absolutely.  The "exodus" from CA has made us greater.  Most of those that have left are total shitheads, and they've gone to shithead-friendly places. 

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30 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

i’m not sure the polls can capture hope.  I haven’t lived in Florida since 1979, but my liberal friends in Florida have been slowly beaten down for such a long time, losing most every election, that a lot of them just gave up hope and quit volunteering and sometimes not even voting when they thought it was a lost cause.   That can be contagious. If Florida Democrats start believing they will win, maybe they have a puncher’s chance with an abortion issue on the ballot - and a glimmer of hope for the first time in a decade that they can win. 

 

26 minutes ago, Brandywine said:

Living in Texas I totally get it. Oh, to live in a blue state. 

I love being a New Yorker.

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3 hours ago, RDCanecutter said:

OK I lied about the German bit.

But that was the best part! I was just visualizing the Hollywood character-inspired image I have of you (Bill Murray in Stripes and Capt. Nixon from BoB) saying, "Nee. Ich kein Deutsch." 

 

3 hours ago, quigley said:

If this was specifically to me, I don't know. I'm not in politics. I know this person socially and know that he's quite well connected.

Tell him your internet pals think he should stop being a pussy.

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6 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

General/public polling by news organizations and other groups, is ostensibly about trying to guess a race and present a story to the public.  It can be cheap as hell - paying a call center to call a list of people and ask a few questions.

A lot of internal polling is about where to spend money, and so it's a lot more in-depth and expsneive, they know who they are polling, and it's not merely calling people on the phone - it can involve things like social media engagement (companies have databases of people in specific areas and what their social media accounts are, voting records are, etc.), things like yard signs in a given area, how meet-and-greets/local rallies are shaping up, the voting records of people in a particular area, demographics changes in that area (have 500 people moved into an area, how many moved out, etc.) etc.

For instance, if you see the Texas GOP is dumping a bunch of money into races in an area they would normally appear to have a lock on, that means their internal polling freaked them out. They try to spend as little as possible in the "safe" areas and save the rest for at-risk areas.

If some politician has a Facebook page or twitter, and they post some big news or an attack on their rival, multiple companies are trawling through all of the likes, comments, retweets/reposts, etc., and weeding out the bots and weeding out people who are not from within the voting area of that politician, trying to put together a picture of what's really happening. 

If Ted Cruz posts something online, and 1000 people engage with it, the companies will see that 400 of those people are from out-of-state and 200 are bots and both groups can be ignored, but they'll look at the 400 remaining.  If 300+ of the 400 remaining are anti-Cruz, it'll set off some flags and cause them to make some more posts ostensibly from Cruz, or they'll post comments and see what the engagement is.

People would be shocked at how much info companies can buy about them. Cambridge Analytica should have woken people up. And they'd be shocked at how much of what they see online is either auto-generated or meant to measure engagement/enthusiasm. There are plenty of social media posts "from" political candidates that were really created by the analytics folks to measure various things.

Yeah the analytics is insane but specifically talking about traditional polling its all about what you take out with these polls

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Just now, linux said:

Yeah the analytics is insane but specifically talking about traditional polling its all about what you take out with these polls

 

anyone else been getting text messages ?  i block and delete all of them 

i’ve had a couple of people knock on my door this week, leave flyers for dems 

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“Honey, wake up. New Trump scam just dropped.”

Spoiler

Trump Rolls Out His New Cryptocurrency Business

In a livestream, Donald Trump formally introduced World Liberty Financial, a crypto venture led by two digital currency entrepreneurs with little experience running high-profile businesses.

Published Sept. 16, 2024Updated Sept. 17, 2024, 12:06 a.m. ET

Former President Donald J. Trump’s involvement in World Liberty Financial has raised concerns about conflicts of interest and alarmed some of his most vocal supporters in the industry.Kenny Holston/The New York Times

Sign up for the On Politics newsletter.  Your guide to the 2024 elections.

A day after an apparent assassination attempt against former President Donald J. Trump, he appeared on a livestream on Monday to champion his latest business venture: cryptocurrencies.

“Crypto is one of those things we have to do,” Mr. Trump said on X. “Whether we like it or not, I have to do it.”

Beside him were his collaborators, including a family friend; Mr. Trump’s two oldest sons, Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump; and two little-known crypto entrepreneurs with no experience running a high-profile business. Together, they were rolling out Mr. Trump’s crypto venture, World Liberty Financial, a project that has already raised concerns about the former president’s conflicts of interest and even alarmed some of his most vocal supporters in the industry.

Mr. Trump has promoted the venture since August, but its exact purpose remains unclear. No official launch date has been set. On the livestream, he did not address the project directly, leaving the details to the two entrepreneurs, Chase Herro and Zachary Folkman. Mr. Herro has described himself as “the dirtbag of the internet,” while Mr. Folkman used to teach classes on how to seduce women.

It’s highly unusual for a presidential candidate to embark on a new business just weeks before Election Day, and even rarer for one to aggressively promote a venture designed to benefit himself and his family. But throughout his political career, Mr. Trump has engaged in business dealings that ethics experts have flagged as problematic. He is the majority owner of Trump Media & Technology Group, the publicly traded parent company of his social media platform, Truth Social, which accounts for some $2 billion of his personal wealth.

Danielle Brian, executive director of the Project on Government Oversight, a nonpartisan watchdog group, said that if Mr. Trump was elected in November, his involvement in the crypto venture would create serious conflicts of interest. The Securities and Exchange Commission has cracked down on the industry, arguingthat nearly all cryptocurrencies are unregistered securities and ought to be regulated like stocks traded on Wall Street.

Mr. Trump “would be able to push regulatory agencies to favor businesses he is involved in,” Ms. Brian said. Ethics experts have said that his ownership of the social media company raises similar issues.

Representatives for the Trump Organization and World Liberty Financial did not respond to requests for comment.

For years, Mr. Trump was a crypto skeptic who denounced Bitcoin as a “scam.” But on the campaign trail, he has morphed into a vocal supporter, speaking at a popular industry conference and drawing donations from crypto executives.

Planning for World Liberty Financial began nine months ago, according to the Trump family friend involved in the venture, Steve Witkoff, a real estate magnate who helped spearhead it. On the livestream, Mr. Witkoff said he introduced Mr. Trump’s sons to Mr. Herro and Mr. Folkman, who have overseen the venture.

By July, AMG Software Solutions, a company based in Puerto Rico, had filed a trademark for the new platform. The next month, Mr. Trump, Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. started posting about it on X.

On the livestream on Monday, Mr. Trump and his sons said that crypto would transform the financial system, without detailing what their business venture is designed to accomplish. But privately, some people involved in World Liberty Financial have pitched it as a borrowing and lending platform, according to three people with knowledge of the project. A white paper for the venture, reviewed by The New York Times, said that it would feature a new cryptocurrency called $WLFI that would be sold to the public.

On its official X and Telegram accounts, World Liberty Financial has said that the project aims to drive “mass adoption of stablecoins,” a type of cryptocurrency designed to maintain a constant value of $1. One person briefed on the project described it as similar to an existing service called Instadapp, an application that allows users to manage their investments across a range of crypto platforms.

Several members of the Trump family have roles in the business, according to a list of team members included in the white paper. Mr. Trump’s title is “chief crypto advocate.” Barron Trump, his 18-year-old son, is listed as the project’s “DeFi visionary,” a reference to the branch of crypto known as decentralized finance. Eric Trump and Donald Trump Jr. are each described as a “web3 ambassador.”

A disclaimer at the end of the document said the platform wasn’t owned or managed by Mr. Trump, the Trump Organization or his family, though family members might receive compensation. (The white paper was earlier reported by the crypto news outlet CoinDesk.)

Behind the scenes, Steve Witkoff has taken a hands-on role, according to a person familiar with the planning. He envisioned the project partly as a way to give Barron Trump some experience with entrepreneurship, the person said, and steer him away from memecoins, a scam-ridden segment of the crypto industry. A spokesman for Mr. Witkoff declined to comment.

Barron Trump did not participate in the livestream, but the former president described him as a crypto enthusiast. “He’s got four wallets or something,” Mr. Trump said. “He knows this stuff inside out.”

The key figures in the project are Mr. Herro and Mr. Folkman. On the livestream, Mr. Herro, who sometimes spells his surname Hero, said his aim was to give “the everyday American” access to crypto investments.

“This country’s been so good to me, and crypto has been so good to me,” Mr. Herro said.

Mr. Herro is a relatively obscure figure in the crypto world. As a young man, he has said, he was a habitual drug offender and was imprisoned, but later turned his life around and became rich. In 2022, he appeared at a crypto seminar hosted by Jordan Belfort, who inspired the 2013 movie “The Wolf of Wall Street.” At the event, Mr. Herro described stablecoins as “the biggest innovation since sliced bread,” and said his favorite of the coins was “vivacious and insane and almost borderline a Ponzi scheme.”

Over the years, Mr. Herro has worked closely with Mr. Folkman, who founded a company called Date Hotter Girls, which offered seminars on “attracting, dating and keeping women of beauty and quality.”

Mr. Folkman and Mr. Herro have pursued a range of business ventures together, first in the U.S. Virgin Islands and later in Puerto Rico. Both have homes in Puerto Rico, which has become a haven for crypto enthusiasts who were drawn by a generous tax break, according to public records. Mr. Folkman is listed in a government database as one of the thousands of people living in Puerto Rico who receive the tax break.

Before they set up shop in Puerto Rico, Mr. Folkman and Mr. Herro ran the Nexus Group, an internet advertising and media company in the U.S. Virgin Islands that received a similar business tax break. Mr. Herro also ran a separate crypto trading business there called Pacer Capital.

In the U.S. Virgin Islands, Mr. Herro and Mr. Folkman worked with Alex Golubitsky, a lawyer listed in the white paper as World Liberty Financial’s legal counsel.

In an email, Mr. Golubitsky said he could not discuss the crypto venture. But he referred to Mr. Herro and Mr. Folkman as “talented tech entrepreneurs.”

On the livestream, Mr. Folkman said that lawyers were in the room with him, “staring daggers at me.” Because of the government crackdown on crypto, he explained, the digital currency associated with World Liberty Financial would be available in the United States only to accredited investors.

“The lawyers are getting nervous back there,” he said. “They’re sweating.”

 

 

Edited by HenryJames
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I have dabbled in crypto off and on for a while (currently no holdings). However, I think I have always had a pretty clear head about what it actually is, gambling. I have actually come out ahead, but a lot of people don't. Knowing how Trump's previous gambling plays have gone, I'm expecting this one to flame out spectacularly. Unfortunately, due to his skills as a grifter he will probably come out ahead. Magats everywhere will still sing his and his cryptos praises as they are losing their shirts. Rinse and repeat.

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7 hours ago, Satchel said:

What is it these undecided Republicans are mulling? 

Their identity.

1.) A lot of them identify AS Republican. They have maybe their entire life. 
2.) Kamala hasn’t laid out a specific plan for their specific situation

3.) Kind of fits with #1 but to vote for someone other than an R or other than Trump when you already voted for him 2 other times means you have to admit you were wrong in 2016 & 2020. People aren’t good at admitting that or taking responsibility in their choices. You can go on blaming others or other events if you keep doing what you always do and the results don’t change. By making different choices you have to recognize mistakes and kind of own them in a way.

5.) fits with #2 but They’re likely Boomers. Boomers want everything to be about them. So ask an u decided boomer why and they’ll tell you it’s because none of Kamala policies will help them. Fuck it if Trump ends democracy bc they have maybe 10 more years on earth or so. who TF cares anyway. 

 

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