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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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19 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I’m fine with all of it and I want Democratic voters to feel like their individual vote is the most crucial vote in history

Yes

12 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Counterpoint 1

People tend to quit when they are getting beaten soundly. 
 

Counterpoint 2 

This type of reporting is what feeds January 6 type batshittery

Also yes

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3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:


Nate Silver is no longer with 538. In fact, I am convinced their rosy forecast for Kamala is one of the largest driving factors behind him doing… whatever the fuck he’s doing now.

Silver is clearly using the impact his model has on betting markets for his own betting purposes. 

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Just now, wildcat09 said:

Silver is clearly using the impact his model has on betting markets for his own betting purposes. 

And to make his bosses happy. Thiel invested a lot of money into Polymatket

Edited by Js1
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Going to share (complimentary free link below) an article by Josh Marshall. It's a small morale boost for those who, me included, are stressed and anxious about the election. I have a csb about the 3 old school pollsters he mentions at the top but no time to tell it right now. 

image.thumb.png.60cfc83d3562f14df68ab466a3708013.png

https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/maybe-it-wont-be-that-close/sharetoken/af3d20bf-2efd-4a68-8d36-cd82326f8f29

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4 hours ago, David Dennison said:

If Trump wins that will make the third time in the last four Republican victories that the will of the majority has been thwarted.

That doesn't seem tenable.

If you’re referencing the electoral college changing, I could only see change if somehow a couple of large, reddish states suddenly flipped blue. Think Texas and Florida. I know I know but stick with me a second.  At that point, the red states would be such a minority in the House and would never sniff the WH at all. Their only remaining option is using the senate to block everything.

perhaps the Dems could then look to drastically increase the House size, which in turn increases the electoral college size. This would water down the influence of the smaller states in the electoral college.  But then again if Dems added a Texas and/or Florida, why would they want to waste time changing the electoral college?

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Again - I think we’ll see a 3% move in one or the other direction at the end of the move that may or may not be visible until Election Day and will represent the consolidated intent of truly undecided and/or unmotivated voters. I think they will move as a herd, and that we’ll know who wins the election by midnight on the East coast, because they will win >300 EVs

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9 minutes ago, immamac said:

When I mentioned Doctor Hannibal Lecter. I'm using that as an example of people that are coming in from Silence of the Lambs. I use it. They say it's terrible.

Dotard has attempted numerous times to explain why he keeps talking about him. None of the explanations make any sense. "I'm using that as an example of people that are coming in from Silence of the Lambs". I mean, what?

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https://www.thedailybeast.com/jd-vance-wrote-scathing-article-against-gopthen-had-his-ohio-state-professor-delete-it

Quote

Vance Wrote Scathing Article Against GOP—Then Had Ex-Professor Delete It

The veep hopeful’s aides have played down the article, saying the Ohio Senator’s views have changed over the years “like millions of Americans.”

 

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3 hours ago, Frank The Tank said:

Yeah, no shit. I understood the reference. Did you know that after that game, Tua went on to play in the NFL and has had multiple concussions? He is currently unable to play the game and possibly considering retirement due to potential long term issues like brain damage. That’s why I said it wasn’t a good analogy THIS WEEK. 

Well your analogy or whatever can be revisited (checks notes) six years after this election.

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46 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Is EndWokeness aware of any external factors in 2020 that might have played a role in demand for mail-in ballots?

These same people believe gas prices dropped off a cliff in 2020 because of Trump's genius pro business policies and not because the entire planet came to an abrupt and unprecedented halt overnight. So, yeah.

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1 hour ago, Red Five said:

Dotard has attempted numerous times to explain why he keeps talking about him. None of the explanations make any sense. "I'm using that as an example of people that are coming in from Silence of the Lambs". I mean, what?

I really think it’s his leap in logic from people seeking asylum at the border. He literally thinks that means they come from “insane asylums”. I really think this. That is how dumb he is. 

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6 hours ago, chainsaw said:

“The campaign is a community of these voters who feel politically homeless, who need a new home, who want to reject Donald Trump, but don't necessarily identify as Democrats,” John Conway, RVAT's director of strategy, said in an interview with Salon.

At least they aren't going to the libertarians I guess?

But maybe start up a 2020s version of the Whigs?

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2 hours ago, hobbes2702 said:

 

Electoral college needs to die.

The house needs to be massively expanded with some sort of cap on population size per district. House members should work m-f at their local district office other than committee heads and gang of eight. Everyone else should be working “remotely”. The worst thing that has happened to the house is districts are so big and reps are never home so they don’t know or care what their constituents think or want. 

Putting aside your point about the electoral college, the members are at home a ton. Even in session they are usually only here Tuesday-Thursday. A bunch of them sleep on the couch in their office so they don’t have to rent or live in big group houses. They’ve barely been here since mid July. 

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5 hours ago, Satchel said:

There a quite a few things I don’t know Just learned today was a freak off is.

That's okay, I recently learned what a Sacramento Steamer is, and I was thinking it would be like a Cleveland Steamer, but nope, it really should be called a Sacramento Sledgehammer. I'm still walking funny.

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Can someone explain to me what role, if any, the President makes in insurance rates going up or down? Yes, insurance is expensive but isn't that due to there's a shitload more catastrophes now? Is he going to make hurricanes, tornados, and flooding no longer happen?

He has concepts of a plan.
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27 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Putting aside your point about the electoral college, the members are at home a ton. Even in session they are usually only here Tuesday-Thursday. A bunch of them sleep on the couch in their office so they don’t have to rent or live in big group houses. They’ve barely been here since mid July. 

They can work remotely 

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How Roberts Shaped Trump’s Supreme Court Winning Streak

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/15/us/justice-roberts-trump-supreme-court.html

Behind the scenes, the chief justice molded three momentous Jan. 6 and election cases that helped determine the former president’s fate.

Last February, Chief Justice John G. Roberts Jr. sent his eight Supreme Court colleagues a confidential memo that radiated frustration and certainty.

Former President Donald J. Trump, seeking to retake the White House, had made a bold, last-ditch appeal to the justices. He wanted them to block his fast-approaching criminal trial on charges of attempting to overturn the 2020 election, arguing that he was protected by presidential immunity. Whatever move the court made could have lasting consequences for the next election, the scope of presidential power and the court’s own battered reputation.

The chief justice’s Feb. 22 memo, jump-starting the justices’ formal discussion on whether to hear the case, offered a scathing critique of a lower-court decision and a startling preview of how the high court would later rule, according to several people from the court who saw the document.

The chief justice tore into the appellate court opinion greenlighting Mr. Trump’s trial, calling it inadequate and poorly reasoned. On one key point, he complained, the lower court judges “failed to grapple with the most difficult questions altogether.” He wrote not only that the Supreme Court should take the case — which would stall the trial — but also how the justices should decide it.

I think it likely that we will view the separation of powers analysis differently” from the appeals court, he wrote. In other words: grant Mr. Trump greater protection from prosecution.

In a momentous trio of Jan. 6-related cases last term, the court found itself more entangled in presidential politics than at any time since the 2000 election, even as it was contending with its own controversies related to that day. The chief justice responded by deploying his authority to steer rulings that benefited Mr. Trump, according to a New York Times examination that uncovered extensive new information about the court’s decision making.

This account draws on details from the justices’ private memos, documentation of the proceedings and interviews with court insiders, both conservative and liberal, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because deliberations are supposed to be kept secret.

The chief justice wrote the majority opinions in all three cases, including an unsigned one in March concluding that the former president could not be barred from election ballots in Colorado.

Another case involved a highly unusual switch. In April, the chief justice assigned Justice Samuel A. Alito Jr. to write a majority opinion saying that prosecutors had gone too far in bringing obstruction charges against some Capitol rioters. But in late May, the chief justice took it over.

During the February discussions of the immunity case, the most consequential of the three, some of the conservative justices wanted to schedule it for the next term. That would have deferred oral arguments until October and almost certainly pushed a decision until after the election. But Chief Justice Roberts provided crucial support for hearing the historic case earlier, siding with the liberals.

Then he froze them out. After he circulated his draft opinion in June, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, the senior liberal, signaled a willingness to agree on some points in hopes of moderating the opinion, according to those familiar with the proceedings. Though the chief justice often favors consensus, he did not take the opening. As the court split 6 to 3, conservatives versus liberals, Justice Sotomayor started work on a five-alarm dissent warning of danger to democracy.

In his writings on the immunity case, the chief justice seemed confident that his arguments would soar above politics, persuade the public, and stand the test of time. His opinion cited “enduring principles,” quoted Alexander Hamilton’s endorsement of a vigorous presidency, and asserted it would be a mistake to dwell too much on Mr. Trump’s actions. “In a case like this one, focusing on ‘transient results’ may have profound consequences for the separation of powers and for the future of our Republic,” he wrote. “Our perspective must be more farsighted.”

But the public response to the decision, announced in July on the final day of the term, was nothing like what his lofty phrases seemed to anticipate.

 

 

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