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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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locodos

locodos 5393

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9 minutes ago, LTbear said:

When I did grad school in Berkeley I went out to the Sierra Nevada or Trinity Alps on the weekends. Tons of confederate flags. 

Confederate flag isn't a symbol of the south or being southern.  Its a it's a racist badge of "honor"   

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LTbear

LTbear 4171

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3 minutes ago, locodos said:

Confederate flag isn't a symbol of the south or being southern.  Its a it's a racist badge of "honor"   

Ya, that's what I'm saying my man. There's a shit-ton of racist MAGAts even in Cali. 

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8077

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3 hours ago, Longhorn_Fan68 said:

can anyone not a finance bro give me a 1-2 line summary of why this rate cut is happening now and if it's good/bad and what it's indicative of? wish US economics was on my continuing education list for my license, but sadly it's not.

it's kinda cool after all the iterations of this board over the years I feel comfortable asking this question here. past versions of the cloak room would have seen hyenas pouncing on meat after that question. also loaded with insults. lots and lots of insults.

Interest Rates are one of the Fed's tools in managing the two main economic indicators they track, Inflation and Unemployment. 

My observation may be wrong but it seems they weigh Inflation as the more important of the two and would tolerate slightly elevated unemployment over high inflation. Raising rates was a move to make borrowing more expensive to get people to spend cash instead of borrowing, this would reduce demand and lower demand would help bring prices down.

The balance is to slow spending enough to get inflation in check but not enough to spur mass layoffs from demand falling too much. Driving the economy is more like a boat than a car, you can't stop or turn on a dime, you have to use momentum and velocity changes to make gradual moves to stay in the right ranges.  Timing is critical.

Both indicators have hit a point where they have to act now or the opportunity to avoid recession will pass.  Inflation is near the target 2% and job growth has slowed to where it could get dangerous.

From a pessimist POV the 50 point cut could be a signal that they waited too long, they see recession coming and they are trying to overcorrect.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15088

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The Teamsters majority wanting to vote for Trump is so typical. These people can’t even figure out that Trump in office is bad news for them. All the information is out there, but they are just mesmerized by the disinformation and bullshit. 

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7783

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14 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Interest Rates are one of the Fed's tools in managing the two main economic indicators they track, Inflation and Unemployment. 

My observation may be wrong but it seems they weigh Inflation as the more important of the two and would tolerate slightly elevated unemployment over high inflation. Raising rates was a move to make borrowing more expensive to get people to spend cash instead of borrowing, this would reduce demand and lower demand would help bring prices down.

The balance is to slow spending enough to get inflation in check but not enough to spur mass layoffs from demand falling too much. Driving the economy is more like a boat than a car, you can't stop or turn on a dime, you have to use momentum and velocity changes to make gradual moves to stay in the right ranges.  Timing is critical.

Both indicators have hit a point where they have to act now or the opportunity to avoid recession will pass.  Inflation is near the target 2% and job growth has slowed to where it could get dangerous.

From a pessimist POV the 50 point cut could be a signal that they waited too long, they see recession coming and they are trying to overcorrect.

I'm not an economist, but I think they did wait too long to start cutting.

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7783

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2 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

The Teamsters majority wanting to vote for Trump is so typical. These people can’t even figure out that Trump in office is bad news for them. All the information is out there, but they are just mesmerized by the disinformation and bullshit. 

They like the hatred of those not lilke them.  They're too dumb to realize Trump would outlaw unions if he could, though.

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Dbeasy

Dbeasy 15088

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16 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Interest Rates are one of the Fed's tools in managing the two main economic indicators they track, Inflation and Unemployment. 

My observation may be wrong but it seems they weigh Inflation as the more important of the two and would tolerate slightly elevated unemployment over high inflation. Raising rates was a move to make borrowing more expensive to get people to spend cash instead of borrowing, this would reduce demand and lower demand would help bring prices down.

The balance is to slow spending enough to get inflation in check but not enough to spur mass layoffs from demand falling too much. Driving the economy is more like a boat than a car, you can't stop or turn on a dime, you have to use momentum and velocity changes to make gradual moves to stay in the right ranges.  Timing is critical.

Both indicators have hit a point where they have to act now or the opportunity to avoid recession will pass.  Inflation is near the target 2% and job growth has slowed to where it could get dangerous.

From a pessimist POV the 50 point cut could be a signal that they waited too long, they see recession coming and they are trying to overcorrect.

This is a solid description of the situation. The Republicans complaints about the timing of them is the same disinformation bullshit we always hear today out of the party.  

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Ghost of LL

Ghost of LL 15539

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

Teamsters decline to endorse -

what fucking gutless pussies. 

There's an interesting point here with the Teamsters--probably more than any of the other major unions, the Teamsters are impacted by federal regulations that are not directly linked to the NLRA or the RLA.  The Teamsters' membership is disproportionately in the trucking, rail, and airline industries--three industries that are (1) heavily regulated by the federal government and (2) that have seen (and are likely to continue seeing) declines in employee counts from automation.

The teamsters represent a bunch of truckers.  But long-haul truckers are going to find themselves out of work if their employers can switch to autonomous vehicles.  But to do that, they're going to need approval from FHWA.

The teamsters represent a bunch of railway signal workers.  But Norfolk Southern and others are lobbying the FRA to let a lot of that work be automated.

I mean, if the Teamsters think they can strike a deal with Trump on these issues and that Trump will keep his word, maybe that makes sense.

But damn--a Harris administration could make corporate friends and at the same time injure the one union that didn't support her by just making a few tweaks to some regulations that nobody would ever notice.  And is that something you'd want to risk when she's up five points in the polls?

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cmontexas

cmontexas 3279

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24 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

They like the hatred of those not lilke them.  They're too dumb to realize Trump would outlaw unions if he could, though.

UPS drivers are also skewed towards being rural people. Kinda like senators; Mineral Wells gets 3-4 drivers every day because of the miles involved in servicing the territory. Downtown Fort Worth only has 3-4 drivers despite a much higher population (maybe less now that Sasha Bass has run everyone off).

Drivers also tend to live on their routes and in small towns like Sulphur Springs or Palestine, driving for UPS is one of the only jobs left that an uneducated small town dipshit can show up and make 100,000 a year while going home and seeing his family every night. We know how those guys vote

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immamac

immamac 42997

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58 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Interest Rates are one of the Fed's tools in managing the two main economic indicators they track, Inflation and Unemployment. 

My observation may be wrong but it seems they weigh Inflation as the more important of the two and would tolerate slightly elevated unemployment over high inflation. Raising rates was a move to make borrowing more expensive to get people to spend cash instead of borrowing, this would reduce demand and lower demand would help bring prices down.

The balance is to slow spending enough to get inflation in check but not enough to spur mass layoffs from demand falling too much. Driving the economy is more like a boat than a car, you can't stop or turn on a dime, you have to use momentum and velocity changes to make gradual moves to stay in the right ranges.  Timing is critical.

Both indicators have hit a point where they have to act now or the opportunity to avoid recession will pass.  Inflation is near the target 2% and job growth has slowed to where it could get dangerous.

From a pessimist POV the 50 point cut could be a signal that they waited too long, they see recession coming and they are trying to overcorrect.

I think I they where actually happy with where inflation was and the trend to keep rates high. They were worried about softening labor markets and this is essentially a gift to megacorps to not do layoffs and keep on track. 

43 minutes ago, Chewbacca said:

I'm not an economist, but I think they did wait too long to start cutting.

I think I they were late to first cut, but right on track to where the rate should be above the natural rate. 

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Sawbonz

Sawbonz 27585

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4 hours ago, otisdog said:

 

On another note, our new pup was exceptional on his first pheasant hunting trip. Waaaay beyond my expectations. He was worth the drive to Wisconsin.

 

Congratulations on not having to shoot him

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30298

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4 hours ago, otisdog said:

Well, kinda....

As my wife and I drove home yesterday from the palouse back to our island on the coast, she asked me why the wheat farmers showed such strong support for trump. After trying to come up with contrasting examples to non-trumpers,  I had to settle  for 'lack of education'.

On another note, our new pup was exceptional on his first pheasant hunting trip. Waaaay beyond my expectations. He was worth the drive to Wisconsin.

 

pictures of pup not loading

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Born to Run

Born to Run 6569

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54 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

As I said…

 

They are making moves to lower interest  rates and correct inflation!

Booo!

They wanted to pass a border bill!

Booo!

They want to protect invitro fertilization!

Booo!

I have sex through the pee pee hole in my pajamas.

Boooo! Huh? Boo!

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Born to Run

Born to Run 6569

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27 minutes ago, cmontexas said:

UPS drivers are also skewed towards being rural people. Kinda like senators; Mineral Wells gets 3-4 drivers every day because of the miles involved in servicing the territory. Downtown Fort Worth only has 3-4 drivers despite a much higher population (maybe less now that Sasha Bass has run everyone off).

Drivers also tend to live on their routes and in small towns like Sulphur Springs or Palestine, driving for UPS is one of the only jobs left that an uneducated small town dipshit can show up and make 100,000 a year while going home and seeing his family every night. We know how those guys vote

Wait UPS drivers make 100k, have benefits, fresh air and exercise and sex up lonely wimenz?  My UT career counselor has some explaining to do.

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7783

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22 minutes ago, immamac said:

I think I they were late to first cut, but right on track to where the rate should be above the natural rate. 

Yeah, doing 50 bps and signaling another cut is coming before EOY gets us where we should be.

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Covri

Covri 6253

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12 minutes ago, Js1 said:

To no surprise, Trump says the teamsters endorsed him. Because not endorsing Harris is automatically an endorsement for him 

Seeing a lot of teamsters union chapters endorsing Harris-Walz on Twitter regardless of what Sean o’brian has said nationally. Guy is just salty he didn’t get to speak at the DNC.

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mooseoutfront

mooseoutfront 3643

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1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

The Teamsters majority wanting to vote for Trump is so typical. These people can’t even figure out that Trump in office is bad news for them. All the information is out there, but they are just mesmerized by the disinformation and bullshit. 

I work among a plethora of Teamsters. They are not the brightest bunch of folks. 

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Red Five

Red Five 40885

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Hey, I just remembered that during the debate, Dotard said that Tim Walz wants to kill babies. Not via abortion mind you. He said he wants to kill babies after they are born. I'm sure there has been push back on that since then, but I haven't seen it. That may be the worst lie ever uttered about another person in a televised debate. 

Also, lulz, the dems really need to tone down their rhetoric. 

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Chewbacca

Chewbacca 7783

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17 minutes ago, Covri said:

Seeing a lot of teamsters union chapters endorsing Harris-Walz on Twitter regardless of what Sean o’brian has said nationally. Guy is just salty he didn’t get to speak at the DNC.

There was zero chance he was going to speak at the DNC after speaking at the RNC.

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30298

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51 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Wait UPS drivers make 100k, have benefits, fresh air and exercise and sex up lonely wimenz?  My UT career counselor has some explaining to do.

When I was driving for UPS me and my buddies would meet for pizza and beer almost every night after our runs. In two months I lost 15 pounds drinking beer and eating pizza because they kicked our ass so much. I had a lot of strip malls on my route and was expected to do 19.2 stops per hour.   I don’t know what they’re making now but they sure as shit earn it.

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Chopper

Chopper 17245

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2 hours ago, Dbeasy said:

The Teamsters majority wanting to vote for Trump is so typical. These people can’t even figure out that Trump in office is bad news for them. All the information is out there, but they are just mesmerized by the disinformation and bullshit. 

SIAP it wasn't a majority of the union it was the majority who responded to some poll, per the head of the Union. He seems to be the only one who knows the results of the poll and didn't divulge how many people responded.

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