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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

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Js1

Js1 84986

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Having a real hard time reconciling the possibility that a D senator is polling 8 points or greater over a R, and a D presidential candidate is in a dead heat.

 

 

Why? Casey won by 9 in 2012 while Obama won by 5. Outran him by 4 points. Casey has been an incumbent since he won in 2006. Incumbents generally do better 

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Js1

Js1 84986

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The PA polls coming fast - WAPO Harris +1, NYT/Siena Harris - +4

Emerson dropped a bunch of meh polls with Trump up 3 in GA, up 1 in AZ/WI/PA, tied in NV, Harris +2 MI and +1 NC, but they are consistently pro-GOP

I guess Wed/Thurs are poll days. Wonder if we get Fox News ones this evening 

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locodos

locodos 5328

Posted
Posted
11 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Counterpoint:  we have a regular UPS driver who comes in, makes small talk with the secretaries up front, then proceeds to spend about 10 minutes taking a shit in our public bathroom, then will fetch himself a bottle of water from our breakroom.  

Are you disgruntled because your office is next to the facilities or the fact this man is most likely using your bottled water as a make shift bidet?  

DSC01508-scaled.jpeg

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13387

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

Gee, that sounds like something a God-forsaken Democrat might propose.

 

 

 

 

Trump’s business supporters will ignore this and refuse to comment on its absurdity but they also know that he has no power to do this. They understand it’s a lie for the rubes.

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The Dog

The Dog 43712

Posted
Posted
2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

Having a real hard time reconciling the possibility that a D senator is polling 8 points or greater over a R, and a D presidential candidate is in a dead heat.

 

 

"Trump only" voters - they are only replying to the Harris/Trump question and not the others. 

4 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

In what world does this make sense?

One where the sample sets are different. 

It's a margin of error thing. Put it on the pile for the average.

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TexasEd

TexasEd 8058

Posted
Posted
31 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

 

Trump = Pro Inflation

21 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Geez. He will really promise anything at this point.

Surprised he hasn’t promised the incel guys that he will fly in Eastern European women for them.

He'll set up a crypto based mail order service too bad the perfect name is already taken, Amazon.  We need to workshop the names,  Glamazon, V-bay, realdolls, Epsteingirls, Alibabes...

 

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Js1

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Posted
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2 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

Fucking Pennsylvania man. 

I mean, bitch and moan, but here's all the post-debate PA polls.  Only 1 bad poll there (Insider Advantage, a right-wing spam poll) 

Suffolk - Harris +3 (49-46)
Insider Advantage (GOP) - Trump +2 (50-48)
Q-Pac - Harris +6 (51-45)
Marist - TIE (49-49)
Franklin & Marshall - Harris +3 (49-46)
Emerson (GOP) - TIE (49-49)
NYT/Siena - Harris +4 (51-47)
WAPO - Harris +1 (48-47)

Average: Harris +1.9 (49.3-47.4)

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Js1

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Posted
Posted
7 minutes ago, G650 said:

Nate Cohn actually wrote an article about it this morning

What’s clear is that recent results from higher-quality polls are very different from those of the last presidential election. If true, it would suggest that Mr. Trump’s advantage in the Electoral College, relative to the popular vote, has declined significantly since 2020.

This wouldn’t come from nowhere: Almost exactly one year ago, I wrote that there were signs that Mr. Trump’s Electoral College advantage edge was fading, including in the 2022 midterm elections. In fact, today’s poll result is reminiscent of our polling ahead of the midterms, which found Republicans leading nationally but Democrats running strong in Pennsylvania and other battlegrounds. It was hard to believe given recent history — I didn’t believe it, and neither did others pollsters I spoke with — but it turned out to be right.

We will re-examine the case for a fading Trump Electoral College advantage soon, including a dive into the geographic distribution of his strength in Times/Siena national surveys over the last year.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/09/19/upshot/harris-trump-poll-pennsylvania.html

That is why everyone who believes that Harris needs win by 3+ to win the EC aren't correct - I think it was calculated that she can win by a little as +1.5 and still win the EC.  But obviously, more is better. 

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47808

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, bitch and moan, but here's all the post-debate PA polls.  Only 1 bad poll there (Insider Advantage, a right-wing spam poll) 

Suffolk - Harris +3 (49-46)
Insider Advantage (GOP) - Trump +2 (50-48)
Q-Pac - Harris +6 (51-45)
Marist - TIE (49-49)
Franklin & Marshall - Harris +3 (49-46)
Emerson (GOP) - TIE (49-49)
NYT/Siena - Harris +4 (51-47)
WAPO - Harris +1 (48-47)

Average: Harris +1.9 (49.3-47.4)

It's more frustration than bitching and moaning. That being said, for context, I was still nervous well into the 3rd quarter of the Michigan game. 

PA just feels much more sticky and not moving positively towards Harris with the momentum we see in other places. 

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swraith

swraith 335

Posted
Posted
5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, bitch and moan, but here's all the post-debate PA polls.  Only 1 bad poll there (Insider Advantage, a right-wing spam poll) 

Suffolk - Harris +3 (49-46)
Insider Advantage (GOP) - Trump +2 (50-48)
Q-Pac - Harris +6 (51-45)
Marist - TIE (49-49)
Franklin & Marshall - Harris +3 (49-46)
Emerson (GOP) - TIE (49-49)
NYT/Siena - Harris +4 (51-47)
WAPO - Harris +1 (48-47)

Average: Harris +1.9 (49.3-47.4)

Collectively, it still seems "tied" for the moment.  By that, I mean that Harris hasn't conclusively broken out beyond the margin of error.  She likely is trending in the right direction, but we need a bit more time to see if she can establish a lead outside the margin of error.  

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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47808

Posted
Posted
1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Biden won it by 1.1% in 2020. That's probably about right.

The question might be what Biden was polled to win it by in 2020, versus the results. I realize there's the whole not counting "I'm voting Trump" hang up calls, from then to now, but that might be interesting.

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Js1

Js1 84986

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Posted (edited)

Also remember that:

Harris is likely up 3-4 on average - the range of outcomes can be anywhere from Trump +1/tied to Harris +6 or 7 (that whole MOE thing).  I laugh at some polls for being bad, but kudos to high-quality pollsters, like NYT/Siena, who publish their results regardless of what others are seeing.  Takes away the herding.  This still showed movement towards Harris.  

But she's not losing the popular vote and it won't be tied, lol.

She doesn't need to win the PV by much to win the EC.   Hell, Dems almost won the House in 2022 and lost the national margin by 2.2 points.  

If she's tied nationally and still somehow up 4 in PA, she's already won MI/WI and probably NV and won the EC

Edited by Js1
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SydneyCarton

SydneyCarton 47808

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It looks like the big ticket items on election night to get an early victory for Harris will be NC. 

https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/election-results/election-night-reporting-timeline

PA and GA took forever last time, although it's now clear how much of that was re-counts or not. I think PA didn't start counting mail-ins until after polls closed, where NC already has them counted and dumps them into the pool almost immediately. Who else will we likely get defined answers on election night that swing things one way or another?

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13387

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It looks like the big ticket items on election night to get an early victory for Harris will be NC. 

https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/election-results/election-night-reporting-timeline

PA and GA took forever last time, although it's now clear how much of that was re-counts or not. I think PA didn't start counting mail-ins until after polls closed, where NC already has them counted and dumps them into the pool almost immediately. Who else will we likely get defined answers on election night that swing things one way or another?

I started to write a reply that PA should adjust their counting procedures to avoid the ballot conspiracies. Then I realized that there is no end to the right's conspiracies. You can keep addressing their concerns, and they will always have another concern if they lose.

They don't even trust each other when it comes to primary ballot counting. I believe they've run off more GOP election officials than Dems.

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dieucla98

dieucla98 2914

Posted
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1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

 

So you're essentially creating a policy that will force credit card companies to stop issuing cards to Americans with poor credit - essentially, the Americans you're (I assume) trying to help here. Love it when policy just ends up shooting itself in the foot.

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Js1

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Posted (edited)
16 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It looks like the big ticket items on election night to get an early victory for Harris will be NC. 

https://www.ncsbe.gov/results-data/election-results/election-night-reporting-timeline

PA and GA took forever last time, although it's now clear how much of that was re-counts or not. I think PA didn't start counting mail-ins until after polls closed, where NC already has them counted and dumps them into the pool almost immediately. Who else will we likely get defined answers on election night that swing things one way or another?

The big thing with PA was the vote by mail was ridiculously slow to count and there was A LOT of it (1.5 million ballots).  The one good thing about it not being a COVID election is that most voters have indicated in PA polling is that they are going to vote in person.  I think Suffolk had it 72/25 or something, which was similar to 2022, and Fetterman was declared the winner at 1am eastern time. 

The media was able to declare Whitmer the winner just after midnight in Michigan; it took until the next morning for Ron Johnson to be declared the winner in Wisconsin.  

I think we will get Election Night calls in NC, MI, PA and possibly Wisconsin, unless it's decided by 26k votes like the 2022 senate race was.  GA may take a while, but the 2022 run-off was called right after midnight and it was a high turnout runoff - 3.5m votes and 2020 was 4.8m. 

Not even going to bother with AZ and NV, but with NV, whatever Ralston says the day before the Election, that's what I am going with, because he picks the winners.

Edited by Js1
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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13387

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Posted
1 minute ago, dieucla98 said:

So you're essentially creating a policy that will force credit card companies to stop issuing cards to Americans with poor credit - essentially, the Americans you're (I assume) trying to help here. Love it when policy just ends up shooting itself in the foot.

Forget stop issuing the cards. They would immediately lower all credit limits if not terminate any new charges,  if banks could only charge 10%.

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Js1

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Posted
2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

You know it is pretty weird that only swing states are stolen from Dotard. The dems somehow never steal, say, Oklahoma or Mississippi. 

If the Dems were smart, they'd steal FL and Texas and he'd have no chance to win. 

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BrickHorn

BrickHorn 18134

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33 minutes ago, TexasEd said:

Trump = Pro Inflation

Of course he is, because he’s an impulsive idiot who knows nothing about economics. So he inevitably proposed dumb shit that will lease to 

But specifically: the 2020 stimulus was a significant contributor to the 2022 inflationary spike. That includes the $1,200 checks Trump had his name printed on and attached to a letter bearing his signature. And of course, he signed the CARES Act that authorized the stimulus payments. 

Tl;dr: Trump’s fingerprints are all over government spending that contributed to the recent inflation that everyone blames Biden for.

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Js1

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LOL this is funny: https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-will-win/

Interesting model, but come on now bro, Harris is not winning 400 EVs. I fucking wish. 

In late 2020 and early 2021, this reporter wrote several stories focusing on the election predictions advanced by Thomas Miller, a data scientist at Northwestern University. I was intrigued by the highly original methodology Miller deployed in calling the trends, and outcomes, first in the presidential race, then for the two Georgia senatorial contests, where the surprise twin victories gave Democrats control of the upper chamber.

In all three 2020 contests, Miller beat virtually every pollster, and modeler parsing multiple voter surveys. He missed the size of Biden’s win in the electoral college by just 12 votes, tagging every state for the correct column save Georgia. For the two senate runoffs, Miller refined his approach to sorting data on the Peach State, and scored again. A week before Election Day on December 6, 2020, the polls gave Republican David Perdue a wide lead over Democrat Jon Ossoff, and showed the GOP’s Kelly Loeffler in a dead heat versus opponent Raphael Warnock. By contrast, Miller’s numbers had Loeffler heading for a big loss, and Ossoff en route to a modest victory. Once again, the contrarian academic nailed it: Miller was just 0.2% short on Warnock’s 2.0% margin, and precisely on target in forecasting Ossoff’s 1.0% final bulge at the ballot box.

For gauging Biden-Trump rematch, Miller developed a “generalized, linear model” based on results from the most recent sixteen presidential elections starting in 1960. Starting with that year’s Kennedy-Nixon race, every presidential race has been decided by 538 electoral votes. “The model’s based on a lot of historical data,” says Miller. It shows that the daily pricing on PredicitIt translates closely into the share of the popular vote favoring each candidate. Say on a certain day, bettors give candidate A a quote of 52 cents, amounting to 52% chance of winning. By Miller’s reckoning, those 52% odds should also mean that at that moment, the best forecast holds that 52% of likely voters plan to cast their ballots for candidate A.

Then, Trump staged a comeback. In the days before the September 10 Trump-Harris debate, Harris was still ahead, but Trump had nearly caught up. “At that point, the race was essentially a tossup,” observes Miller. “The forecast for the Democrats was 288.” It was the onstage battle in Philadelphia that wrecked the 78-year old former POTUS, according to the Miller numbers. Within a day after the candidates left the podium, Harris had jumped to exactly over 400 electoral votes. The Harris endorsement from Taylor Swift, secured the day of the debate, probably helped sink Trump’s chances, according to Miller. Since then, Harris has maintained for 400-plus vote total.

As of September 16, PredictIt is showing a price of 55 cents for Harris, and 45 cents for Trump, the reverse of the scenario before Biden’s departure. Once again, those odds translate in 55% of the popular vote for the Democrat according to Miller’s model. If the situation persists, Trump faces an absolute rout. “It would be somewhere between the defeats of Barry Goldwater by Lyndon Johnson in 1964, and Bob Dole by Bill Clinton in 1996,” says Miller. “We’re talking about a blowout where Harris gets over 400 electoral votes and wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, North Carolina and every other swing state.”

 
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South Austin

South Austin 51973

Posted
Posted
14 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

So you're essentially creating a policy that will force credit card companies to stop issuing cards to Americans with poor credit - essentially, the Americans you're (I assume) trying to help here. Love it when policy just ends up shooting itself in the foot.

With the way his campaign is going, in a couple weeks he's going to announce a bill that would provide all Americans with free tickets to any Taylor Swift concert, and on-site abortion services provided at each venue.

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9809

Posted
Posted
18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I mean, bitch and moan, but here's all the post-debate PA polls.  Only 1 bad poll there (Insider Advantage, a right-wing spam poll) 

Suffolk - Harris +3 (49-46)
Insider Advantage (GOP) - Trump +2 (50-48)
Q-Pac - Harris +6 (51-45)
Marist - TIE (49-49)
Franklin & Marshall - Harris +3 (49-46)
Emerson (GOP) - TIE (49-49)
NYT/Siena - Harris +4 (51-47)
WAPO - Harris +1 (48-47)

Average: Harris +1.9 (49.3-47.4)

The trend has been great. I hope she sustains this momentum and I think she's got the right team to do it. The variations are probably due to how the different pollsters apply handicaps to the data.

I looked at the methodology for Marist, though, and while I expected it to be in the neighborhood of +2 to +3 Republican respondents it was actually +3 Dems (Poll of 1,754 Pennsylvania Adults, among them 1663 registered voters and among them 1476 likely voters).

Of the Trump voters, 90% strongly support him and 1% might vote differently, while for Harris voters 91% strongly support her and 0% might vote differently.

Of the self-identified Democrats, 4% are voting Trump; of the self-identified Republicans, 3% are voting Harris.

Of the self-identified Independents, Trump leads 49-45 (in a 2020 PA exit poll, Biden won independents 52-44)

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/pennsylvania

Of the respondents who believe the most important quality is change, Trump leads 60-38.

Harris leads in Philadelphia 83-15, +68

Harris leads in Philadelphia suburbs 59-40, +19 (that's a touch less than what Biden did in 2020)

Trump leads NEPA 51-47, +4 (Trump's margins there were much higher in 2020, although it's hard to know how Marist was defining NEPA)

Trump leads Central PA 62-35, +27 (Trump's Central PA margins in 2020 were generally +30)

Trump leads West PA 56-43, +13 (Hard to know how Marist is defining this, but his margins in rural West PA counties ranged from +18 to +52 and he lost Erie and Allegheny coutnies)

Trump leads with whites +3 (in 2020 he won whites +15)

Trump leads with men +10 (it was +11 in 2020)

Harris leads with women +12 (Biden had them +11 in 2020)

4% of Biden 2020 voters are supporting Trump 2024, while 3% of Trump 2020 voters are supporting Harris 2024.

 

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Red Five

Red Five 40573

Posted
Posted
2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

As of September 16, PredictIt is showing a price of 55 cents for Harris, and 45 cents for Trump, the reverse of the scenario before Biden’s departure. Once again, those odds translate in 55% of the popular vote for the Democrat according to Miller’s model.

Um I don't think that's how that works.

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Nice Guy Eddie

Nice Guy Eddie 13387

Posted
Posted
6 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Of course he is, because he’s an impulsive idiot who knows nothing about economics. So he inevitably proposed dumb shit that will lease to 

But specifically: the 2020 stimulus was a significant contributor to the 2022 inflationary spike. That includes the $1,200 checks Trump had his name printed on and attached to a letter bearing his signature. And of course, he signed the CARES Act that authorized the stimulus payments. 

Tl;dr: Trump’s fingerprints are all over government spending that contributed to the recent inflation that everyone blames Biden for.

The Republicans that know Trump's policies are bad refuse to speak up. At best they will go with the, "what Trump really meant..."

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Js1

Js1 84986

Posted
Posted
4 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Um I don't think that's how that works.

It’s not. But kudos to that guy for getting Biden’s EC total almost right in 2020 and nailing the GA Senate races. I’m gonna keep an eye on him for shits and giggles 

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PenelopeWitherspoon

PenelopeWitherspoon 19021

Posted
Posted
25 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

So you're essentially creating a policy that will force credit card companies to stop issuing cards to Americans with poor credit - essentially, the Americans you're (I assume) trying to help here. Love it when policy just ends up shooting itself in the foot.

Because like all things with Trump, he has zero clue how anything works. 

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