2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Js1 84988]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

Good. This is actually becoming a problem for Trump. Saw an article about it a while back.

She doesn't need to actually win the group but likely can peel off a nice chunk of that bloc.

Come on Mitt, just endorse her. You’re retiring 

[SydneyCarton 47808]

7 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

 

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Good. This is actually becoming a problem for Trump. Saw an article about it a while back.

She doesn't need to actually win the group but likely can peel off a nice chunk of that bloc.

Which morals? Becuase couldn't they just as easily reject Harris on her morals as well?

[MissingInAction 24727]

1 hour ago, Red Five said:

I have had some experience with elderly narcissists. Their "casual bullshitting" from their earlier years quickly turns into "Just say whatever pops into your head. It doesn't matter if it's true or not, because if you're saying it, that means it's true." 

"Everything I say is fact because I say it!"

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1291]

13 hours ago, HenryJames said:

That's what brown can do for you.

[Bojack 2073]

10 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

About time. These were Utah's vote totals in 2016. A great many of those McMullin votes were Mormons who weren't inclined to vote for Trump over his lack of morality.

Republican	Donald Trump Mike Pence	515,231
Democratic	Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine	310,676
Independent	Evan McMullin Nathan Johnson	243,690
Libertarian	Gary Johnson Bill Weld	39,608

[C-Man 26926]

55 minutes ago, Red Five said:

I have had some experience with elderly narcissists. Their "casual bullshitting" from their earlier years quickly turns into "Just say whatever pops into your head. It doesn't matter if it's true or not, because if you're saying it, that means it's true." 

Read a story a few weeks back, and might've even posted it here, that said Trump has been consistently lying for so long he can no longer keep track of things on a day-to-day basis. That's partly due to obvious cognitive decline. Basically, whatever comes out of his mouth is what he believes to be true at that given time. He is likely to totally contradict himself the next day. It's amazing this guy will get more than 70M votes on 11/5.

 

52 minutes ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

It really is amazing how ignorant he is on just about any subject he speaks about.   Like stunningly ignorant. 

He's the worst kind of ignorant too -- he thinks he's an expert on every single subject that comes up.

 

19 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

Would appreciate hearing thoughts on Scaramucci’s statements on Trump. He believes a not insignificant reason Trump is running is because he fears all of the legal threats he faces. He wants the Presidency not only for grifting and power, but to stay out of jail and avoid massive legal fees. 

So let’s just pretend for a minute this is true. Do you think Harris and Trump have had back channel conversations about pardons? If they have, what would Trump do to secure the pardon? When would he and Harris cement an agreement? And The Mooch is not assuming this is only done after Election Day.

For example, assume internal polling shows Trump he’s going to lose. Would he try to get an agreement with her before Election Day? 

The whole idea is nutty, but then that’s The Mooch for you. 
 

 

Correct. Trump doesn't want to be POTUS for any of the right reasons. He loves power and bilking people for money, which he can easily do (with immunity now) from the White House. He's been running for two years simply because of his legal issues. All that is 100% true. I've wondered myself if he's bucking for a pardon in this -- like if Harris (or then Biden) had offered to pardon Trump just to get the whole sordid thing behind us so we can "heal" and move on as a nation -- but don't have a definitive take on that one way or the other. While the single most important thing for this country is ensuring Trump doesn't get back into the White House, almost as important is not letting somebody like Vance, or anybody else with Project 2025 backing, win the presidency as well.

Personally, I say fuck off on pardons. Trump is in a very beatable position now and we could get EVERYTHING -- Kamala victory, Trump's final defeat and then Trump justice (hopefully). I would like to see him lose this election and get turbo-fucked by the courts but I'm not losing sight of the fact we just need Harris to win this election first and foremost.

[The Dog 43712]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Which morals? Becuase couldn't they just as easily reject Harris on her morals as well?

Yes, but this is a bloc that hates lawlessness and Jan 6 is the wedge that is driving them to the Democrats. 

Here's a good summary of the issue for Trump and the GOP: https://www.esquire.com/news-politics/politics/a61854963/trump-lose-mormon-support/. This links to the Axios article that talks about how problematic Jan 6 is for Mormons.

Quote

I don’t care how giddy the past couple weeks have made the Democrats; they can’t possibly hope to win Utah. But Arizona is a different pile of sand. Losing a chunk of the Mormon vote in Arizona, either because the LDS voters stayed home or because they actually jumped the fence, would be a serious blow to any GOP hopes of regaining the state’s ten electoral votes. It would also be a major embarrassment to the Republican party. That, of course, assumes that the GOP is capable of embarrassment anymore.

 

[texastough 1128]

Re: a deal for Trump. This is all fantasy but I'll play along:

Instead of pardons for the federal crimes, you offer a non-prosecution agreement based on DJT fulfilling a number of conditions. Admissions of guilt. Never running for any office again. But way beyond that. He has to publicly admit that almost everything he's said to the American people have been intentional lies. It would be an enumerated list, including the admission that Biden and dems didn't steal the 2020 election; rather he attempted to defraud the American people in a number of ways, including fake electors, march on the capitol, bogus lawsuits, etc. And, he has to out an enumerated list of GOP pols as liars who are only serving billionaires and big corporations, explain all the rhetoric from the GOP and Fox/right wing media about things like immigration are lies designed to dupe the public to vote for a party actively trying to shit on the average American. He has to expose how GOP's get bought by the mega rich, corporations, and malicious foreign enemies. The list could go on, but the gist is something that would finally annihilate the GOP.

He fails to fulfill any of that, you prosecute. 

[Red Five 40574]

I don't think Trump is capable of doing any of those things that would come with a pardon. And yeah, of course he would attempt to get out of it. 

Would it be possible to have him sign a document saying any attempt to renege on the conditions would send him straight to prison?

[bolverk 29245]

11 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In this scenario, the only deal that should be pursued is the following:

• Trump admits he lost in 2020 and 2024. In a press conference standing next to Biden and Harris.
• Asks his supporters to accept this as fact.
• Pleads guilty to all of the current federal crimes. Can't this eliminate the possibility of appeals?
• Provides all evidence of coordination with Russian or other foreign parties/entities in any election/finance schemes, including culpitory information on those who worked for his campaigns or in his White House. 
• Biden commutes his sentence on his last day.

Therefore he's a federal felon but he just doesn't have to serve time in federal prison. 

This would be a huge win for Dems. It would throw some in the GOP in disarray that Trump abandoned them.

Added a further stipulation.

[MissingInAction 24727]

Him? 

That's like giving a parasite a gender affirmation.

Edited September 19 by MissingInAction
Affirmed

[SimonBolivar 10889]

What is even the point of a pardon if he loses again? Let him run in 2028 as an 82-year-old two-time loser with a conspiracy platform with an even more diverse electorate.

Edited September 19 by SimonBolivar

[CooterBrown 17846]

 

MAGIC UNDERWEAR FOR EVERYONE!!!

[Pato del Muerto 52227]

36 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

I have zero doubt that Trump will come out ahead in selling that stock, and others will be left holding the back when the stock ultimately drops to $0.

It's just like how Trump supporters bet their life on the 2020 prediction markets that Trump would win. 

It’s difficult to be negative on a stock that you are given for free.  And he is too adept at lining his pockets to actually keep the stock and ride it towards zero.  He will cash out at his followers’ expense as usual. 

[Brisketexan 104217]

1 minute ago, CooterBrown said:

MAGIC UNDERWEAR FOR EVERYONE!!!

I for one do not welcome our new Mormon porn overlords....

[TexArcher 37411]

16 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Which morals? Becuase couldn't they just as easily reject Harris on her morals as well?

 

My understanding is that they'll use whichever morals their elders tell them to?

I had a Mormon friend who had to ask her elders if she could spend her own money on a new roof for her house.  After some deliberation, they said yes, as long as she also permanently increased her tithe to the church.  It makes perfect sense that these people have a significant say in an election in the United States in 2024.  Everything's cool.

Edited September 19 by TexArcher

[Red Five 40574]

10 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Read a story a few weeks back, and might've even posted it here, that said Trump has been consistently lying for so long he can no longer keep track of things on a day-to-day basis. That's partly due to obvious cognitive decline. Basically, whatever comes out of his mouth is what he believes to be true at that given time. He is likely to totally contradict himself the next day. It's amazing this guy will get more than 70M votes on 11/5.

Whatever sounds good in the moment. Kamala is saying she'll re-institute the draft, Walz wants to kill babies, I actually won California in 2020, etc. These aren't even "They're eating the dogs" lies, where he's repeating something ridiculous he heard. He's just making shit up out of whole cloth. And it's largely being ignored. 

[Js1 84988]

Just now, TexArcher said:

 

My understanding is that they'll use whichever morals their underwear tell them to?

Fify

[Chuckie Finster 22571]

21 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Purely anecdotal, but of all the "deeply religious" people I know, Mormons seem to be the most consistent in following the words/actions of Jesus in the bible and don't just use religion as an excuse to discriminate.  I think there's definitely something here.

[Francisco 2.0 32290]

10 minutes ago, texastough said:

Re: a deal for Trump. This is all fantasy but I'll play along:

Instead of pardons for the federal crimes, you offer a non-prosecution agreement based on DJT fulfilling a number of conditions. Admissions of guilt. Never running for any office again. But way beyond that. He has to publicly admit that almost everything he's said to the American people have been intentional lies. It would be an enumerated list, including the admission that Biden and dems didn't steal the 2020 election; rather he attempted to defraud the American people in a number of ways, including fake electors, march on the capitol, bogus lawsuits, etc. And, he has to out an enumerated list of GOP pols as liars who are only serving billionaires and big corporations, explain all the rhetoric from the GOP and Fox/right wing media about things like immigration are lies designed to dupe the public to vote for a party actively trying to shit on the average American. He has to expose how GOP's get bought by the mega rich, corporations, and malicious foreign enemies. The list could go on, but the gist is something that would finally annihilate the GOP.

He fails to fulfill any of that, you prosecute. 

 

And as soon as the video of him was released, with him reading from a script admitting all of this, the MAGA folk would yell it's AI and refuse to believe it.

 

 

[Brisketexan 104217]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Purely anecdotal, but of all the "deeply religious" people I know, Mormons seem to be the most consistent in following the words/actions of Jesus in the bible and don't just use religion as an excuse to discriminate.  I think there's definitely something here.

Counterpoint: mormonism has some of the most recent history of deeply embedded dogmatic racism of any significant religion.  And Kamala is black.

[Chuckie Finster 22571]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint: mormonism has some of the most recent history of deeply embedded dogmatic racism of any significant religion.  And Kamala is black.

Okay yeah, but besides that...

[Pancho 44153]

 

[Red Five 40574]

1 minute ago, Brisketexan said:

Counterpoint: mormonism has some of the most recent history of deeply embedded dogmatic racism of any significant religion.  And Kamala is black.

Well yeah but she just turned black. 

[SydneyCarton 47808]

9 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I for one do not welcome our new Mormon porn overlords....

I can still fap to that. 

7 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

 

My understanding is that they'll use whichever morals their elders tell them to?

I had a Mormon friend who had to ask her elders if she could spend her own money on a new roof for her house.  After some deliberation, they said yes, as long as she also permanently increased her tithe to the church.  It makes perfect sense that these people have a significant say in an election in the United States in 2024.  Everything's cool.

Not in any way to downplay the signifigance of gaining another 100k voters in AZ, so I'm glad they're going to go this route to court Mormons. THat being said, the bolded above...Those elders sound like grifting motherfuckers who might like the cut of Trump's jib.

That being said, I've also heard that mormon's make the best neighbors, etc. so maybe they do prioritize harmony over division. Unless you're black. 

Edited September 19 by SydneyCarton

[Foosters 17688]

Mormon "morality" permits them to elect a woman as the president? My understanding was the most responsibility afforded a Mormon woman was taking the lead on the weekly grocery shopping.

[BrickHorn 18134]

55 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I mean, I find it incomprehensible he's getting 12% of the black vote, and yet here we are...

Maybe that 12% just suddenly turned black.

[TexArcher 37411]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Those elders sound like grifting motherfuckers who might like the cut of Trump's jib.

 

Well, yeah, the guy out front with the golden plates from Heaven that only he can read shoulda told ya...

[Bozo_Casanova 26130]

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

LOL this is funny: https://fortune.com/2024/09/18/trump-vs-harris-election-odds-who-will-win/

Interesting model, but come on now bro, Harris is not winning 400 EVs. I fucking wish. 

Not so fast my friend.

I want to be clear upfront I don’t think she’s getting close to that total if she wins*.

theres a lot of talk a few pages back about the declining GOP EC advantage and how pollsters are dealing with systemic errors. 2016 and 2020 saw large systemic errors in favor of Clinton and Biden in the 2-4% range, but there’s no real reason to believe that those errors persist this time around, or for that matter that pollsters wouldn’t overcorrect in the other direction. In other words, the polls aren’t wrong, but they are just a snapshot of a group at a point in time. 

this is a tight election and there’s no getting around that fact, but I continue to believe that the “undecided voter” will move as a group at the end in a way that may be invisible to polling. I was playing around with some numbers on 270 to win this morning and the output was very interesting. 

If the polling averages are correct as of today, Harris wins with 292 EC votes, holding Nev, NC, Wi, MI, PA.

If there’s a systematic 2% error in Trump’s favor he picks up all of the above and gets 312EVs

With a 3% error in his favor across the board he also would win Oregon and Minnesota, or 330, and with a 3.5% error  he would pick up VA, OR and Neb 2, putting his total at 343. 

On the other hand:

if there is a 2% error in her favor, she wins picks up Maine 2, AZ, GA and maybe IA for 326. With 3% in her favor, she would also win Florida and Alaska, or 359 EVs, and with 3.5% she would win Texas and possibly Ohio, putting her at 399-416.
 

 

 

 

 

*Inshallah!

Edited September 19 by Bozo_Casanova

[texastough 1128]

Are those numbers of mormons in AZ hardcore practicing mormons or mormons only by birth/heritage? In my experience, the latter share some of the same general values but not the batshit crazy beliefs. ETA the latter also don't have elders dictating their decisions.

Edited September 19 by texastough

[Brisketexan 104217]

4 minutes ago, BrickHorn said:

Maybe that 12% just suddenly turned black.

I just presumed that was the 12% of black folks who subscribe to the Financial Times.

[Brisketexan 104217]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Not so fast my friend.

theres a lot of talk a few pages back about the declining GOP EC advantage and how pollsters are dealing with systemic errors. 2016 and 2020 saw large systemic errors in favor of Clinton and Biden in the 2-4% range, but there’s no real reason to believe that those errors persist this time around, or for that matter that pollsters wouldn’t overcorrect in the other direction. In other words, the polls aren’t wrong, but they are just a snapshot of a group at a point in time. 

this is a tight election and there’s no getting around that fact, but I continue to believe that the “undecided voter” will move as a group at the end in a way that may be invisible to polling. I was playing around with some numbers on 270 to win this morning and the output was very interesting. 

If the polling averages are correct as of today, Harris wins with 292 EC votes, holding Nev, NC, Wi, MI, PA.

If there’s a systematic 2% error in Trump’s favor he picks up all of the above and gets 312EVs

With a 3% error in his favor across the board he also would win Oregon and Minnesota, or 330, and with a 3.5% error  he would pick up VA, OR and Neb 2, putting his total at 343. 

On the other hand:

if there is a 2% error in her favor, she wins picks up Maine 2, AZ, GA and maybe IA for 326. With 3% in her favor, she would also win Florida and Alaska, or 359 EVs, and with 3.5% she would win Texas and possibly Ohio, putting her at 399-416.

Dude.....the protocol is puff, puff, PASS.  You are clearly bogarting all the doobage.

[Bozo_Casanova 26130]

7 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

I just presumed that was the 12% of black folks who subscribe to the Financial Times.

And they are pissed. ROYALLY pissed.

[Chuckie Finster 22571]

Potential NC implications:

 

Honestly can't even begin to speculate what could be worse than the endless Robinson information already out there.

[chainsaw 9809]

Mormons love non-whites when they commit to BYU

[Pancho 44153]

 

 

[chainsaw 9809]

Just now, Chuckie Finster said:

Potential NC implications:

 

Honestly can't even begin to speculate what could be worse than the endless Robinson information already out there.

Surveillance footage of him at the adult video stores?

Honestly I thought it was pretty cool of him to bring pizza to the employees.

[Bozo_Casanova 26130]

6 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Dude.....the protocol is puff, puff, PASS.  You are clearly bogarting all the doobage.

Maybe. But here’s the thing- if I told you that there was a good reason to believe that Donald Trump is going to win 330 electoral votes in this election, you would believe it, because there IS a good reason to believe that. But for the same reason it’s equally possible that Kamala Harris is cruising and on pace to win in an electoral landslide.

[Pato del Muerto 52227]

1 minute ago, chainsaw said:

Mormons love non-whites when they commit to BYU

They also love whites like Jim McMahon who don’t follow any of their morality code, when they play for byu. 

[Js1 84988]

Don't worry everyone, the race is over.

Shitter is all a buzz because Trump is doing a rally in Long Island - New York is gonna flip, New Jersey is gonna flip, Virginia is in play

YEAHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHh

[Nice Guy Eddie 13387]

4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Potential NC implications:

 

Honestly can't even begin to speculate what could be worse than the endless Robinson information already out there.

Have we passed all NC deadlines to change the governor candidates?

 

 

[Red Five 40574]

4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

 

"I'm in a cult. Actually, I'm in a couple of cults." 

[Js1 84988]

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Maybe. But here’s the thing- if I told you that there was a good reason to believe that Donald Trump is going to win 330 electoral votes in this election, you would believe it, because there IS a good reason to believe that. But for the same reason it’s equally possible that Kamala Harris is cruising and on pace to win in an electoral landslide.

No, I don't believe Donald Trump is going to win 330 EVs.  Even Nate Silver hasn't thought that

Let me put it this way - if Trump wins 330 EVs, every single polling company will be out of business on by Jan 1, 2025, because their reputations will implode faster than a submersible of billionaires going to see the Titanic 

Edited September 19 by Js1

[Foosters 17688]

4 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

Potential NC implications:

 

Honestly can't even begin to speculate what could be worse than the endless Robinson information already out there.

Donated to a pro-immigrant org?

[linux 1631]

Pardon negotiation? now? are you people insane? all this chain of events of a collapsing democracy, abosolutely all of it can be traced to Ford pardoning Nixon, the culture of leniency towards republicans (lets face it always republicans) can be traced from there all the way to the supreme court granting immunity, all of it! building block by building block.

Denazification is the only solution, enough with playing scared with fascists they are idiots a second civil war would be over quickly if a dem controlled the military. If MAGA controlled the millitary it would take much longer but again they are idiots but they would lose in the end see Russia.

[Pancho 44153]

 

[G650 13825]

2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

"I'm in a cult. Actually, I'm in a couple of cults." 

I've been involved in a number of cults. As both a leader and a follower. You have more fun as a follower, but you make more money as a leader.

[The Dog 43712]

 

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Have we passed all NC deadlines to change the governor candidates?

 

 

Yes. Absentee ballots for NC start mailing tomorrow. Have by Saturday to meet overseas deadline.

[GopherRock 1765]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Would appreciate hearing thoughts on Scaramucci’s statements on Trump. He believes a not insignificant reason Trump is running is because he fears all of the legal threats he faces. He wants the Presidency not only for grifting and power, but to stay out of jail and avoid massive legal fees. 

 

 

Trump, Bibi Netanyahu, and his homeboy Maduro down in Venezuela are cut from the exact same cloth. Either they stay in office for life or they die in prison.

[Red Five 40574]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

 

dead girl or live boy