2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

#1, I don’t think more money helps Trump anyway.  His cake is baked (you said it on another post and I’ve read it elsewhere-his ceiling is his floor).  
 

#2, the Trump campaign is comparatively small with fewer satellite offices; they pretty have to spend their money on traditional and digital advertising because they aren’t set up to pivot elsewhere.  
 

I’m sure this is over-reading into it, but I’d presume there’s some realistic reasons to spend in Florida (defend abortion rights) and maybe subordinate but also satisfying reasons (Mar-A-Lago tv’s running pro-Dem ads, maybe trying to shape now what a post-DeSantis Florida looks like).  

There are post 2024 reasons as well.  You let a state go and it'll keep going.

[Zonahorn 8077]

1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

I still do not believe the Florida is in play.

Florida is in play, and Texas is also in play. Democrats need to stop dooming about R+3 Florida and R+5 Texas. Trump has a hard ceiling and isn’t gaining support, and both states are way too big of a prize to just write off.

[Js1 85040]

2 minutes ago, Foosters said:

He said there was a trickle away in 2020 (when he "defected").

Okay sure but Trump tripled his margin in FL between 2016 and 2020. I think people Need to understand there was a lot of Covid related migration.

FL/TX/MT could be redder than 2020 and CA/NY/CO/WA could be bluer than 2020 based on where it seems people are moving from and to. 

[Nice Guy Eddie 13389]

3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

I think we just peeled back the curtain on how they are skimming the GOP coffers. Good bet that Trump is doing the same - paying himself for speaking at his "rallies" and calling them "speaking engagements."

 

This. She just wants Kamala down there to help her against Scott.

 

IMHO this is also about making Trump spend money in Florida - which is supposed to be a "Safe R" state for this cycle. 

Yes. And even if the Trump campaign ultimately does not focus on FL, they waste time, including fielding calls from Rick Scott, thinking about it. You may even get them to make some mistakes.

The only argument about spending money in decided states is that you may slightly move the national numbers, which can impact undecided states. People have a tendency to follow the crowds.

Not to mention that you might as well spend excess money in states or districts that can help you if you end up winning. Helping Tester get elected, or winning that one more House race may be extremely important in upcoming years.

[Sawbonz 27345]

41 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

Agreed, even with the sloppy double negative 

What you don’t like Shakespeare?

[Js1 85040]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Yes. And even if the Trump campaign ultimately does not focus on FL, they waste time, including fielding calls from Rick Scott, thinking about it. You may even get them to make some mistakes.

I’d 100% drop ads and billboards in West Palm Beach to drive him nuts though. 

[Ted Lange 15978]

While Harris can outspend Trump, she isn't out air timing him, nobody can.   He is talked about and on TV non-stop, almost 24/7, ranting about illegals and inflation.  Of course he never gives tangible realistic ways he or the GOP can fix either...

 

 

Edited September 24 by Ted Lange

[Goredho 17277]

9 minutes ago, Foosters said:

Hilariously, they all told him that they now realize that they have to excise exorcise Trumpism from the GOP. LOL, good luck.

FIFY and there is going to be a whole lot of this on the right...

[Old Freak Nasty 818]

Do they not realize that to have any chance to excise Trump they need to vote FOR Harris?  He needs to be beaten so badly that even the GQP will dump him.  Sitting out doesn't really run up the margins needed for the party to summon the courage to overthrow dear leader.

But of course logic doesn't reign even amongst the educated elites in the GQP.

[Pato del Muerto 52292]

Won’t ever flip fl or tx if you never try

[The Dog 43742]

16 minutes ago, Zonahorn said:

Florida is in play, and Texas is also in play. Democrats need to stop dooming about R+3 Florida and R+5 Texas. Trump has a hard ceiling and isn’t gaining support, and both states are way too big of a prize to just write off.

Agreed, but the problem with Texas is the size - you have to know where to spend and focus in order to get the maximum benefit and turnout.

Democrats and Republicans have spent YEARS researching and placing targeted ads/offices in specific counties in swing states like Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia.

They would need to do the same with Texas which has more large cities than any potential swing state. So you are looking at targeting demographic groups in 5 of the 12 most populous cities in America - Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, and Fort Worth.

That's not even including El Paso which is on the other side of the state - and El Paso is bigger than Detroit, Las Vegas, and Milwaukee (the MSAs are bigger but the cities themselves are smaller).

It can be done but requires a large investment in time, money, personnel, and infrastructure. It's the kind of thing that needs to be built up over several years. 

They at least have an idea where to spend in Florida due to its history as a swing state. 

Edited September 24 by The Dog

[linux 1652]

This election is existential in terms of voting not mattering after a Trump dictatorship, that said viewing this assuming democracy survives because the GOP is not in power:

The problem I see with FL is that it is a perpetual fascist migration magnet: old people and white Latin America, its way smarter to concentrate all resources into trying to flip Texas because the demographics are just better. Maybe in 20 years after those COVID snowbirds have died of natural causes. But then another seismic event and they all move into Florida again.

Again this election is too important so disregard the above, if FL is in play dedicate some resources.

[Gap03 3238]

1 hour ago, Ted Lange said:

I was curious what exactly was in the 2024 GOP platform, regarding how they would address immigration.

https://prod-static.gop.com/media/RNC2024-Platform.pdf

"Christian-hating Communists, Marxists, Socialists ...

Keep 'em out of our country - WHITE POWER!"

Edited September 24 by Gap03

[Js1 85040]

3 minutes ago, linux said:

This election is existential in terms of voting not mattering after a Trump dictatorship, that said viewing this assuming democracy survives because the GOP is not in power:

The problem I see with FL is that it is a perpetual fascist migration magnet: old people and white Latin America, its way smarter to concentrate all resources into trying to flip Texas because the demographics are just better. Maybe in 20 years after those COVID snowbirds have died of natural causes. But then another seismic event and they all move into Florida again.

Again this election is too important so disregard the above, if FL is in play dedicate some resources.

Funny enough, or not, I’ve been on and off to phone with diff moving companies for my move next month and the one yesterday said their most popular moves right now are CA to Texas, CA to FL and NY to FL. And it’s obvious who is coming to these places 

 

 

[Pancho 44293]

[Nice Guy Eddie 13389]

6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

Agreed, but the problem with Texas is the size - you have to know where to spend and focus in order to get the maximum benefit and turnout.

Democrats and Republicans have spent YEARS researching and placing targeted ads/offices in specific counties in swing states like Arizona, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Georgia.

They would need to do the same with Texas which has more large cities than any potential swing state. So you are looking at targeting demographic groups in 5 of the 12 most populous cities in America - Houston, Dallas, San Antonio, Austin, and Fort Worth.

That's not even including El Paso which is on the other side of the state - and El Paso is bigger than Detroit, Las Vegas, and Milwaukee.

It can be done but requires a large investment in time, money, personnel, and infrastructure. It's the kind of thing that needs to be built up over several years. 

They at least have an idea where to spend in Florida due to its history as a swing state. 

The Texas Democrat Party (do they really even exist?) has been a failure in letting Texas go without a fight. Even if you are destined to lose, it's important to retain whatever ground you have. They are plenty of potential Democrat voters in Texas who are surrounded by vocal GOP voters. Many just either don't bother voting or they succumb to the pressure of voting GOP. And even some may be voters who might bounce back and forth but they won't if they're ignored.

[Zonahorn 8077]

Posted this in the house thread, but a result like that for Harris would be huge. 

[linux 1652]

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

They need to keep hammering the point that his excuses are about as relevant as extraterrestrials invading. Remind them of that and then ask the question again

[Fudge Nuggets 19115]

1 hour ago, South Austin said:

My daughter turned 18 in August, and she just registered to vote a few days before I fly her to Oregon to move her into her freshman dorm.  She's going to vote absentee from college, and she knows that her vote in Texas won't mean much.  But she wants to contribute to what we hope is a popular vote pile on, and she said she'd regret not voting, no matter the outcome. 

Man, I hope there are a lot more like her in November.

 

1 hour ago, bolverk said:

It's the same with my daughter going to school in New York. She's still a student and intentionally registered in Texas to ensure her vote counts here. Besides, she may yet come back when she graduates but, honestly, she flip-flops a lot on that decision for good reason.

Why are your kids committing voter fraud? [/ken_paxton]

[RDCanecutter 26227]

19 hours ago, Js1 said:

 

 

What an Angry Hippo.

[GopherRock 1765]

Florida is a low-risk, high-reward play to throw some downballot money at, if for no other reason than the abortion measure. That might not get Harris across (FL loves them some tinhorn dictators), but to keep the heat on Rick Scott and the rest of the ballot. If the abortion measure is within range of passing the GOP has big problems.

The fact that open support for Harris even exists in the Villages, an area Trump needs to win 90-10 or more, tells me that the Trump train is at least leaking oil.

[Zonahorn 8077]

The uncommitted came home

[closetohumping 17373]

[Fudge Nuggets 19115]

1 hour ago, aggie08 said:

I still do not believe the Florida is in play.

I don't either.  I think the opening more offices thing is more a function of they have more money than they know what to do with, so might as well blow it somewhere.

[Horn Dog 9612]

Are they getting in line to stab his ass?

[Js1 85040]

1 minute ago, GopherRock said:

The fact that open support for Harris even exists in the Villages, an area Trump needs to win 90-10 or more, tells me that the Trump train is at least leaking oil.

Not really...

The Villages are about 63-67% for Trump - and the change from 2016 in the NYT precinct map was in the Dems' favor (about 2-7 points more blue than Clinton).  But he didn't need to win The Villages 90-10 to win the state by 3.3

[Foosters 17688]

28 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay sure but Trump tripled his margin in FL between 2016 and 2020. I think people Need to understand there was a lot of Covid related migration.

FL/TX/MT could be redder than 2020 and CA/NY/CO/WA could be bluer than 2020 based on where it seems people are moving from and to. 

I'd like to correct the record and point out that this quote did not come from me.

[Js1 85040]

1 minute ago, Foosters said:

I'd like to correct the record and point out that this quote did not come from me.

Yeah, I hate how surly quotes if you pull it from another post.  Sorry.

[Pato del Muerto 52292]

5 minutes ago, closetohumping said:

Gene Parmesan?

[locodos 5328]

6 minutes ago, GopherRock said:

Florida is a low-risk, high-reward play to throw some downballot money at, if for no other reason than the abortion measure. That might not get Harris across (FL loves them some tinhorn dictators), but to keep the heat on Rick Scott and the rest of the ballot. If the abortion measure is within range of passing the GOP has big problems.

The fact that open support for Harris even exists in the Villages, an area Trump needs to win 90-10 or more, tells me that the Trump train is at least leaking oil.

That's NOT oil!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13389]

538 now has Harris at a 0.8% overall favorable rating, her highest since '21.  In comparison Trump is at -10% favorable rating. 

[Ghost of LL 15346]

13 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Great intel. Thanks for sharing. One thing I'd add is that if your friend's confidence in MI (and WI by implication I assume), AZ, NV, and GA are correct, PA's actually not the tipping point. The election is already over if she turns out correct. Though I have a hard time imagining Harris underperforming among black men to the extent it costs her PA, while still winning GA.

Yeah--I agree with that.  And by way of full disclosure, we didn't really talk Georgia in any depth individually.  His commentary was "Arizona and Georgia."  And since I was so surprised by his Arizona take, I focused much more on that.

But you're right that Georgia likely has some of the same challenges Pennsylvania has with respect to Black men.

21 minutes ago, Foosters said:

I had a similar conversation with my dad. White man, 70's, O&G background. He recounted 3 conversations he had in the past several weeks with 3 of his oldest friends - all who voted for Trump in both 16 and 20. All 3 are sitting this one out, including the one guy who had previously told him he'd "die before he ever voted for a Democrat." Hilariously, they all told him that they now realize that they have to excise Trumpism from the GOP. LOL, good luck.

I think this goes to what we're seeing in the polling--Harris is doing materially better than Hillary or Biden did among whites (particularly among college-educated whites), and materially worse among Blacks and Hispanics.  It's kind of an interesting de-racialization of the vote.

In the last six weeks of the campaign, it strikes me that Harris has her work cut out for her among Hispanics and Black men.  But I think she's maybe better positioned to make up ground with those groups than Trump is to make up ground with college-educated whites.  But that's just a pretty uninformed sense that's not based on any actual data.

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Okay sure but Trump tripled his margin in FL between 2016 and 2020. I think people Need to understand there was a lot of Covid related migration.

FL/TX/MT could be redder than 2020 and CA/NY/CO/WA could be bluer than 2020 based on where it seems people are moving from and to. 

This coupled with the de-racialization of the voting patterns (Harris maybe doing better among whites in Wisconsin and Trump doing better among Hispanics in California) may be behind a possible reduction/elimination of the Republican advantage in the Electoral College that the current polling kind of hints at.

We'll see.  But for the time being, it's interesting to speculate about.

[tbone_ 14020]

Here’s what’s going to happen:

Trump is going to lose every swing state and Fla and Texas thereby getting his ass handed to him in electoral votes and cementing him as the true loser he is forever and always.

And Texas is going to win the SEC undefeated in its first year, once and for all exposing the myth of the SEC.

Thus two very important questions of our time will be answered definitively this fall. And all will be right with the world.

We will look back proudly on the Fall of 24 for a long, long time.

[Pato del Muerto 52292]

2 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

538 now has Harris at a 0.8% overall favorable rating, her highest since '21.  In comparison Trump is at -10% favorable rating. 

Lots of people fooling themselves into thinking it’s ok to vote for a guy they claim to dislike because of “policy” as if villains don’t do villainous things when they have power.  Or that they can believe him when he says what he will and won’t do. 

Edited September 24 by Pato del Muerto

[The Dog 43742]

14 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

The Texas Democrat Party (do they really even exist?) has been a failure in letting Texas go without a fight. Even if you are destined to lose, it's important to retain whatever ground you have. They are plenty of potential Democrat voters in Texas who are surrounded by vocal GOP voters. Many just either don't bother voting or they succumb to the pressure of voting GOP. And even some may be voters who might bounce back and forth but they won't if they're ignored.

and what's worse is they are the ones saying Texas isn't in play which depresses their own turnout. 

[chainsaw 9828]

43 minutes ago, C-Man said:

In a matter of a week, my wife has gone from "no way we're putting a political yard sign out front" to actually entertaining our next door neighbors and us both putting them out so our street will lean heavy Harris in public support.

That's a metaphorical dam breaking. When people overcome that mental barrier, the supporters become vocal and the fencesitters become supporters.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

3 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Gene Parmesan?

Word.  T Roosevelt should never look like a dweeb.

[DigglerontheHoof 20997]

2 minutes ago, tbone_ said:

Here’s what’s going to happen:

Trump is going to lose every swing state and Fla and Texas thereby getting his ass handed to him in electoral votes and cementing him as the true loser he is forever and always.

And Texas is going to win the SEC undefeated in its first year, once and for all exposing the myth of the SEC.

Thus two very important questions of our time will be answered definitively this fall. And all will be right with the world.

We will look back proudly on the Fall of 24 for a long, long time.

[Fudge Nuggets 19115]

21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Funny enough, or not, I’ve been on and off to phone with diff moving companies for my move next month and the one yesterday said their most popular moves right now are CA to Texas, CA to FL and NY to FL. And it’s obvious who is coming to these places 

 

 

The shitheads.

[Fudge Nuggets 19115]

20 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

And even some may be voters who might bounce back and forth but they won't if they're ignored.

Well, it seems in the presidential election if you aren't from one of the seven swing states then you might as well not exist.

[The Dog 43742]

RNC hasn't given to the GOP's campaign arm all cycle.

[Red Five 40590]

“Do you commit to not killing your wife?”
“Of course, if she doesn’t do something that means she has it coming, yes of course I commit to not killing her.”

[RDCanecutter 26227]

13 hours ago, wood said:

We talkin' Montgomery County, Texas?

Graduated Conroe H.S. 1983. Lived in Austin ever since. Some good people there, but even more absolute trash.

I grew up in Alabama, traveled all over the FL Panhandle and some of the bleakest stretches of Mississippi and Louisiana, and even I was "impressed" by the Conroe area.

[SubliminalHorn 6633]

29 minutes ago, Pancho said:

So if we have an unsafe election because of magat dipshit traitors, then they won’t certify it?

[linux 1652]

29 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Funny enough, or not, I’ve been on and off to phone with diff moving companies for my move next month and the one yesterday said their most popular moves right now are CA to Texas, CA to FL and NY to FL. And it’s obvious who is coming to these places 

 

 

According to the debate between the DeSantis and Newsome there's a higher per capita migration from Florida to California. Which actually compounds the issue.

[royiv 9124]

10 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

The shitheads.

As evidenced by in migration giving us some of our shittiest politicians.

[Zonahorn 8077]

21 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

I had dinner over the weekend with my previously referenced "source close to the campaign," and a few nuggets are worth sharing here:

Arizona: They're very confident about Arizona.  I mean, they're so confident about Arizona that I was somewhat shocked.  I mean, I feel good about Arizona.  But what I heard was "we're going to win Arizona by 1-2 points."

Georgia: They're maybe a little less confident about Georgia.  But that was couched in terms of "we really like where we stand right now."  

Michigan: We're fine.

Nevada: They're unequivocal on Nevada: "we're going to win Nevada by 2-2.5 points."

North Carolina: This one is really harder to tell, because they don't have any information from after the whole Mark Robinson flame-out.  It's pretty clear to them that the likes of Kari Lake and Mark Robinson are a bit of a drag on Trump.  And they're really trying to target people who have decided they're not going to vote for Lake/Robinson but who are still planning to vote for Trump.  Who are those people?  I don't exactly know, but it's obviously a focus of the Harris campaign's data people.

Texas: I think the term "extreme skepticism" is the only way to describe their feelings with respect to Texas.  My friend conceded that there are some numbers that look good-ish for Allred.  But damn--we've all been through this drill before.  There's just an extreme unwillingness to divert resources at any level to Texas, no matter what any poll is currently saying.

Pennsylvania: I take this one out of alphabetical order because that's where the game is.  My friend gamely tried to obfuscate on the point, but quickly conceded that Pennsylvania is the tipping-point state.  And they're feeling ok about Pennsylvania, but they have a big problem with Black men.  How big a problem I can't exactly say.  But it's causing some serious concern.  

I asked about whence the problem derives, and he said two things: 1) Kamala's perceived record as a prosecutor (and alleged prosecutions of small-time marijuana offenses) and 2) misogyny (and particularly as against a Black woman).  On the upside, the campaign has identified the issue and is doing a whole lot to address it.  That State Commonwealth is being absolutely blanketed with campaign surrogates talking directly to that community to shore up those numbers.

And I'm going to observe here--and this was my observation, and not my friend's (though it was an observation with which he agreed)--that this is where the Harris campaign's superiority in resources shows.  They have something like twice as many field offices as the Trump campaign and RNC have.  We spent a good deal of time just laughing at how Lara Trump is siphoning off money from the RNC and killing their organizing and down-ballot support.  So the Trump campaign isn't really able to go out and play offense and try to exploit the problems Harris is having with that (or any other) demographic.  So from that standpoint, it's kind of the opposite of 2016.

That is about what I would expect for Arizona. I would also expect Ciscomani/Schweikert to go down and Democrats to flip the state legislature for the trifecta. And of course, Kari Lake is going to lose by a lot.

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11667]

Nate Cohn tweeted this morning that AZ by voter registration is 3.1 points more red than in 2020.  Hard to be confident that could be overcome.

[locodos 5328]

If only there were some tried and true way to get a certain cohort to vote...  Georgia got any ideas?

I recommend watching past the 1 minute mark.... vote, vote, vote, stretch, vote...

Edited September 24 by locodos

[linux 1652]

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Nate Cohn tweeted this morning that AZ by voter registration is 3.1 points more red than in 2020.  Hard to be confident that could be overcome.

Can you link to this? is it 3% higher for voter registration? aka 1,000 vs 1,030 or is it 3.1 higher in total voting universe?