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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

FL gets called pretty quickly on election night, regardless of outcome. So if we see a suburbs continue to shift left in places like Orlando and Tampa and Miami shift left, it bodes well for the rest of the night.

Of course, the longer they can’t call Florida (even if it’s eventually a Trump win, the better everyone should feel. He won FL by 3.3 and it was called at 11:30pm

FL always starts R and then we all sit and watch as Miami-Dade votes keep trickling in and it just doesn't quite make it turn blue.  Hoping this year is different, but expectations are low, because Florida.

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1 minute ago, Biff Tannen said:

FL always starts R and then we all sit and watch as Miami-Dade votes keep trickling in and it just doesn't quite make it turn blue.  Hoping this year is different, but expectations are low, because Florida.

I’m not expecting a win there. That would generally mean she decimated him and this is 2008 

But less than 3.3 would be good. Downballot implications, including FL-Sen and FL-13 (Anna Paulina Luna)

Edited by Js1
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23 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Ok, this is like the 4th or 5th screen grab lately with an absolutely insane shit scrolling across the bottom line.  Are these all jokes?  Or are they real life?  Because holy fuck if they are real.

Seriously?

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3 minutes ago, The Dog said:

and a more serious point by Wasserman:

 

I don’t have time to try to corroborate Wasserman’s data, but is he suggesting that 800k Floridians who were registered Dems have left Florida or otherwise not registered for this election?  That doesn’t pass the smell test.  

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Just now, LCHorn said:

I don’t have time to try to corroborate Wasserman’s data, but is he suggesting that 800k Floridians who were registered Dems have left Florida or otherwise not registered for this election?  That doesn’t pass the smell test.  

You only have to register once. These are new Florida voters.

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3 hours ago, Aqua Buddha said:

While you are correct, all of that happened this last time and he still won without even debating the field.

It's not the BMD's and the party.  It's the voters.  

THIS.  @atomheartbevo, it's this.  It doesn't matter what the BMDs, or the old-school Republicans want.  It matters 0.0%.

The GQP cannot win national elections without not just MAGA votes, but MOTIVATED MAGA votes.  If they all go back into their trailers and holes, the GQP is fucked.  No matter how much money they spend, no matter how much free ice cream and recess every day they promise, without MAGA, they're fucked.

2 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

There's really no better evidence that people are voting against their interest than major national unions failing to endorse Harris.

 

2 hours ago, RomaVicta said:

They believe that they selflessly put the country first by voting Trump who will restore the republic to the greatness of unchallengable white man rule. He'll save us from the immigrants: these dangerous motherfuckers.

image.png.0a0420390ca86268d066bc623c9c75fa.png

The boy is smiling because he can't hardly wait to sell the ten pounds of fentanyl they have hiding in their asses so they can buy a nice four bedroom house in the 'burbs after they kill the current residents and eat their pets. 

And fucking this.  People will pass up a store full of stuff that helps them to grab the one janky-ass policy from the alley behind the store that HURTS someone else.  "The cruelty tells you it's working!"  It's the worst of human nature, and Trump, MAGA, and he entire GQP have tapped into it.  It is their lifeblood at this point.  Without promises to hurt other people for you, they have nothing.

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22 minutes ago, Red Five said:


It will be funny to watch Dotard scream again about how he supposedly won an election that he lost by 70 EVs and 7-8 million votes. Because of all the obvious fraud everywhere that no one can even identify, much less prove.

Yeah, hilarious. 
image.gif.261929b5f5cb4bb9f7bd1d38c93c688c.gif

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6 minutes ago, The Dog said:

and a more serious point by Wasserman:

 

How is it there are fewer RVs in 2024 than in 2020?

https://dos.fl.gov/elections/data-statistics/voter-registration-statistics/voter-registration-reports/voter-registration-by-party-affiliation/

Also, remember FL is a closed primary state. Party affiliation may not matter as much.

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4 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

You only have to register once. These are new Florida voters.

Those can't be new registrations. That would be over half the population of the state. Those numbers don't make sense unless Florida simply removed 700k democratic voters from the rolls. 

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19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I’m not expecting a win there. That would generally mean she decimated him and this is 2008 

But less than 3.3 would be good. Downballot implications, including FL-Sen and FL-13 (Anna Paulina Luna)

 

9 minutes ago, The Dog said:

and a more serious point by Wasserman:

 

Putting aside the registration stuff, with Florida, you want to watch how the Villages come in, then a bit later, how Miami Dade looks. Dems aren't winning Florida, but we knew in 2020 by 9 pm we were in for a long night and it wasn't going to be a Biden nationwide romp. Same thing this time: If Wasserman and Coked Up Kornacki (TM) are talking about the Dems outperforming, its going to be a good night.  If they are talking about Harris underperforming Biden, then everyone may need to freshen up their passports. 

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6 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

I don’t have time to try to corroborate Wasserman’s data, but is he suggesting that 800k Floridians who were registered Dems have left Florida or otherwise not registered for this election?  That doesn’t pass the smell test.  

DeSantis putting in work to purge those voter rolls.

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First off, there’s no data to differentiate new registrations or switched registrations.

Secondly, it’s still about persuasion. Go back and look at the voting data for the Jax mayoral race. Looked like a GOP blowout but the Dem won. But persuasion has helped the Dems a lot the last few cycles 

Edited by Js1
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1 minute ago, royiv said:

DeSantis putting in work to purge those voter rolls.

That should be a huge fucking story of DeSantis just up and suddenly purged 700k democratic voters. Like riots in the streets huge. The full table shows the change was largely between 2022 and 2023. I think something else is going on here. 

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1 hour ago, DaysOff said:


CRAPers. I fly with one every trip. Conservative Republican Airline Pilots. Most are ex air force or navy and took an oath to defend the constitution while also supporting a Russian asset and traitor.

That baboon won't be running. Y'all act like he's not going to prison or house arrest for life.

I can’t imagine being locked in a cockpit with those guys for hours on end. Godspeed to you for getting your passengers to their destination safely without choking out your copilot.

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I'll paste the FL SOS data here:

Quote

Voter Registration - By Party Affiliation

Webpage last updated: September 10, 2024.

Totals reflect the number of active registered voters in the State of Florida.

Data as of August 31, 2024.

Year Republican Party of Florida Florida Democratic Party Minor Parties No Party Affiliation Total
2024

5,385,554

4,359,354

390,220

3,544,576

13,679,704

2023 5,141,848 4,362,147 317,607 3,528,807 13,350,409
2022 5,312,122 4,928,168 263,790 4,032,731 14,536,811
2021 5,123,799 5,080,697 253,843 3,829,372 14,287,711
2020 5,218,739 5,315,954 231,246 3,799,799 14,565,738
2019 4,761,405 4,986,520 147,546 3,641,359 13,536,830
2018 4,718,720 4,975,895 113,489 3,588,518 13,396,622
2017 4,544,708 4,807,950 65,526 3,449,005 12,867,189

 

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28 minutes ago, Js1 said:

FL gets called pretty quickly on election night, regardless of outcome. So if we see a suburbs continue to shift left in places like Orlando and Tampa and Miami shift left, it bodes well for the rest of the night.

Of course, the longer they can’t call Florida (even if it’s eventually a Trump win, the better everyone should feel. He won FL by 3.3 and it was called at 11:30pm

The abortion referendum will say more about Florida than Trump. Agree that the later it gets before Florida gets called, the better everyone is going to feel. 

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48 minutes ago, tx ind said:

If we get NC and PA called early the shitposting coming from Truth Social will be epic

PA wil never be called early because they don’t start counting mail in ballots until after polls close. 

10 minutes ago, royiv said:

I can’t imagine being locked in a cockpit with those guys for hours on end. Godspeed to you for getting your passengers to their destination safely without choking out your copilot.

He can still choke out a co pilot and get the people safely to their destination. 

Also, someone is taking a poll seriously from a polling outfit called Trump University?

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Just now, SydneyCarton said:

PA wil never be called early because they don’t start counting mail in ballots until after polls close. 

He can still choke out a co pilot and get the people safely to their destination. 

What is kamamala wins without even needing the mail ins. 

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Just now, immamac said:

What is kamamala wins without even needing the mail ins. 

That would defy literally every poll that has been taken to date. They’d all have to have been off by orders of magnitude for them to be able to call it early without the million plus mail in ballots. Even if the pollsters are all herding, that seems…pretty fucking unlikely. 
 

Like I’m about to fuck Sydney Sweeney unlikely. 

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4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

PA wil never be called early because they don’t start counting mail in ballots until after polls close. 

Reminder - polling shows the in-person/mail split in 2024 will be closer to 75/25 overall, like 2022, which had Fetterman called the winner a little after midnight CT.  It will not be like 2020, which dragged for quite a while. 

If it is a 2020-style close race, it could drag into Wednesday, but the volume of mail will not the same as 2020.  If Kamala wins by 3-5, it likely could be called on Election Night (or just past the day turning)

Edited by Js1
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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Reminder - polling shows the in-person/mail split in 2024 will be closer to 75/25 overall, like 2022, which had Fetterman called the winner a little after midnight CT.  It will not be like 2020, which dragged for quite a while. 

If it is a 2020-style close race, it could drag into Wednesday, but the volume of mail will not the same as 2020.  If Kamala wins by 3-5, it likely could be called on Election Night (or just past the day turning)

I think turnout compared to fetterman in an off year will make a just after midnight call unlikely, even if everything else is similar. 
 

 

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4 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

That would defy literally every poll that has been taken to date. They’d all have to have been off by orders of magnitude for them to be able to call it early without the million plus mail in ballots. Even if the pollsters are all herding, that seems…pretty fucking unlikely. 
 

Like I’m about to fuck Sydney Sweeney unlikely. 

The pollsters have 0 idea what turnout will be. 

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1 hour ago, immamac said:

The pollsters have 0 idea what turnout will be. 

I think they know it’s going to be big, like we do. Which also favors delays, polls staying open later, etc. which I think also delays the state being called. 

Edited by SydneyCarton
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2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I think turnout compared to fetterman in an off year will make a just after midnight call unlikely, even if everything else is similar. 
 

 

I'm just telling you - if 3/4ths of the voting will be in-person this year, compared to mail, the mail will count a lot fucking faster. 

It was 2.6m mail-in ballots returned in 2020 (out of 3m requested) - 40% of the total votes.  If 7m people vote again and only 1/4 of them vote by mail, there's only 1.75m mail-in ballots to count.  2022 was just under 1.2m mail ballots to count and they had a winner declared on Election Night

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15 hours ago, F250 said:

Trump controls the MAGA mob, he isn't going anywhere. The GOP will have to live with Trump.

It's like when that Sports Store owner handed over control to Tony in the Sopranos.

d67e1d40-0085-444a-8068-32dd7c04f535-tex

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4 hours ago, DigglerontheHoof said:

Go fuck yourselves, Firefighters.

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/03/fire-fighters-union-declines-presidential-endorsement-00182372

Vice President Kamala Harris suffered a blow Thursday as the union representing more than 300,000 career firefighters and emergency responders declined to make a presidential endorsement, two weeks after the International Brotherhood of Teamsters made a similar decision.

Leaders of the International Association of Fire Fighters gathered this week and determined “by a margin of 1.2%” against picking a candidate, according to General President Edward Kelly.

Kamala got the Foo Fighters endorsement though, right?

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2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Barack Obama Point GIF by Obama

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/obama-blitz-campaign-trail-harris-final-weeks-campaign/story?id=114491830&cid=social_twitter_abcn

Former President Barack Obama will hit the campaign trail for Vice President Harris and Minnesota Gov. Tim Walz starting next Thursday, Oct. 10, through election day, according to a senior campaign official.

The first stop will be in Pennsylvania in the Pittsburgh area before Obama embarks on a campaign blitz across the battleground states in the final 27 days.

He's got quite the hole to dig himself out of in my eyes. After all, he got us into this mess. Elected While Black, then got all uppity and made fun of a thin-skinned, "rich", white man.

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