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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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44 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Holy covering your ass, Batman. Yeah, polling is hard to measure. But if Enten's not gonna deep dive the numbers and just say "who fucking knows?", I don't see how this is helpful at all or why CNN employs him.  

 

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9 hours ago, Jive Turkey said:

This smells of a new cologne called “Desperation.”

Watters: We are getting a lot of texts from women about Stephen Miller. Our audience believes you are some sort of sexual matador. 

Miller: Some advice to any young man out there. If you are a young man who's looking to impress the ladies, to be attractive.. the best thing you can do is wear your Trump support on your sleeve. Show that you are a real man. Show that you are not a beta. Be a proud and loud Trump supporter and your dating life will be fantastic

Take your pick maga men.

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9 hours ago, Stros121 said:

I posted to find out what it was mostly. There is no other place to post this other than this shit hole of a thread. Stop being so sensitive. Do you think I’m trying to change someone’s vote in your safe space? Piss off being all high and mighty.

Super fucking weird I found this thread that is definitely another place to post something like this.

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47 minutes ago, Serak The Preparer said:

You guys have Drew and dcar00. Advantage Houston.

Pretty sure you guys have Macklemore (Icono), Pimphand, and cabowabo. You really want to claim an advantage with that trio on your side?

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1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Pennsylvania generally votes to the right of its registrations, and the polls have been off in the last few elections by about 2-3 points

I should have put some context around this- registrations are a lagging indicator. As coalitions change and realign people who don’t vote in primaries change their vote before they re-register their party affiliation. That seems obvious enough, but whether PA has continued to shift right relative to registration since 2020 isn’t knowable until 11/5. 
My point is that the registration numbers in PA, Florida and other places reflect previous behaviors that are already baked in, not future behaviors.

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Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

I should have put some context around this- registrations are a lagging indicator. As coalitions change and realign people who don’t vote in primaries change their vote before they re-register their party affiliation. That seems obvious enough, but whether PA has continued to shift right relative to registration since 2020 isn’t knowable until 11/5. 
My point is that the registration numbers in PA, Florida and other places reflect previous behaviors that are already baked in, not future behaviors.

Also very true.  WV was +Dem registrations for a long time, yet consistently voted very very Republican.

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3 minutes ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

I'm the Manwich Generation. 

Hunts_Manwich_Ebony_June_1978.jpg

And I wershed them down with Handy Andy brand cokes.

Damn now I want a 33-page Manwich recipe booklet.

Edited by chainsaw
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Oh the irony of saying Harris is word salad bilge next to Trump

JD Vance went pure Porky Pig when asked why black people should vote for him and Trump 

Uh, uh, um, but, uh, um…there’s black people in the crowd 

Edited by Js1
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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The district level polling we’ve seen (CA races, Iowa races, NE-02, this) do not jive with the state level polling showing everything a tossup

 

Your vibes are far more immaculate than Bozo's.

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1 minute ago, hookem2010 said:

Your vibes are far more immaculate than Bozo's.

She’d basically have to be cratering worse than HRC did in the rurals/with WWC voters and shedding massive amounts of black and Hispanic support. This poll and PA being a pure tossup shouldn’t exist in the same universe unless every pollster has absolutely missed one specific demographic shifting wayyyy to the right 

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9 hours ago, Sheep Have Wool said:

Imagine you've got a very, very small penis. You've been mocked for it in the locker room. Women laughed. Suddenly, someone offered you the opportunity to direct people's attention to something other than your microdick. You don't care if it's true, you just desperately want the focus to be elsewhere. You're looking to cover up your inadequacies and insecurities, not engage in critical thinking.

It's the story of MAGA in general and @Stros121 specifically. 

Objection!

Some people have micropeni and can engage in critical thinking!

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2 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

But people on this board need to come to grips with the fact that we really don’t know what’s happening. Lots of people who had not previously voted for Trump had grudgingly come around on him and it’s hard to unring that bell. Red areas of the rust belt have only gotten redder, the polls can only catch what swims through the net and Donald Trump may be winning this comfortably.

Dick Fucking Cheney endorsed Kamala Harris. If people like Dick Cheney are endorsing Harris, there will be a lot of Republicans who, in the privacy of the voting booth, will vote for Harris or just not vote.

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13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She’d basically have to be cratering worse than HRC did in the rurals/with WWC voters and shedding massive amounts of black and Hispanic support. This poll and PA being a pure tossup shouldn’t exist in the same universe unless every pollster has absolutely missed one specific demographic shifting wayyyy to the right 

I am really struggling understanding the polling unless the pollsters are just flat out lying.  I think yesterday in this thread someone posted how Republican internals show Trump will win PA and all the sunbelt states and easily win the election.  What am I missing?  It's not like his presidency or anything he has done since then should make more people vote for him.  He has always had his base that would vote for him even if Jesus came down from the heavens and told them not to but now the polls supposedly show shifts of people now saying, "Gee, this Trump seems great, and we need to make him our leader again".  Only thing I can figure is there may be more people than we realize that won't vote for a woman for President.  I hope I am wrong but that would be the reason for the magic polling that keeps showing more and more people moving towards Trump.

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IIRC, the district level polling (when we got a lot of it in 16/20) pointed to signs that the election would be closer than the state polling.  The problem is the total lack of district level polling right now that aren't internals or one-off polls.  What we have gotten does not hold up to the CW that every swing state is Trump +1 to Harris +1

Today, the DCCC published an internal of WI-01 that put the Republican up 3 and the presidential race tied at 49-49.  The Republican won the redrawn 1st CD 54-45 and Trump would have won it 52-47. 

Edited by Js1
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1 minute ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I am really struggling understanding the polling unless the pollsters are just flat out lying.  I think yesterday in this thread someone posted how Republican internals show Trump will win PA and all the sunbelt states and easily win the election.  What am I missing?

I don't think they're lying.  I think they are so fucking afraid of being wrong again, they're overcompensating.  Nate Cohn mentioned the number of polls that do recall samples, which tend to favor the out of power party / loser of the last election, which are underestimating Harris.

I also posted that the person who said that was Mark Halperin, who works for Newsmax.  Newsmax is about as legit as fucking Breitbart.

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28 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Among the many benefits of a Trump loss, dipshits like Piers Morgan will fade into obscurity and irrelevance. 

I don't know how anyone expects anything of Morgan.  It must be the accent.  He's a game show winner who considers himself a Tory and counts Donald Trump as a close personal friend.

 

 

Edited by jimmyjazz
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5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Nate Cohn

I read that when you posted it. It concluded nothing for me. 

About the best I can sum it up, "Some polls weight by whether or not you recall who you voted for, and that favors the winner, but some don't and here's a muddy pool of words. Shrug. Nobody knows but they deathly afraid of being really wrong and we're all hedging one way or the other."

 

 

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35 minutes ago, Js1 said:

The district level polling we’ve seen (CA races, Iowa races, NE-02, this) do not jive with the state level polling showing everything a tossup

 

I still think PA will be close but just to add this district has a Cook rating of R+5 and went for Dr Oz 49-48 in 2022. Also heavily for shapiro in 2022 so there's also that.

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Also Harry Enten's "the true margin of error is 9%!!!!" is not analysis, it's hedging.

It's worse than the "the ACTUAL unemployment rate is 7%!!!!!" people. 

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50 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Among the many benefits of a Trump loss, dipshits like Piers Morgan will fade into obscurity and irrelevance. 

 

 

And they all know it. Hence the desperation. There's a long line of grifters who are going to be socially and economical ruined if Trump loses. 

It's truly great.

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54 minutes ago, Post Oak said:

The more this guy talks the more I start to think being anti migrant might have some perks

 

Anybody got Jimmy Johnson's NFL Draft Value Chart? How many Haitians are Elon Musk and Piers Morgan worth? (I kid. I kid. Mostly.)

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2 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

And they all know it. Hence the desperation. There's a long line of grifters who are going to be socially and economical ruined if Trump loses. 

It's truly great.

Not me, I'm gonna do GREAT.  My "Challenge the Stollen Election II, Kamala Boogaloo" PAC is gonna RAKE in the bucks.  The dipshits' disability/SS checks will hardly pause in their bank accounts before they send the money on to me to STOP THE STEAL!

anthony-adams-rubbing-hands.jpg

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