Jump to content

2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


bolverk

Recommended Posts

1 hour ago, Js1 said:

I mean, I think polling is pretty broken when 2 polls release within days and one says Trump +13 in FL and one says Trump +4 in FL

Like that shouldn’t happen. +4 and +6, yeah. But a 9 point difference says something is fundamentally wrong with the industry. 

I said it before but it bears repeating state polling is fucking crazy, that is why I pay attention to national polls that have way less variance but are fucked by the stupid EC.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

These hurricanes are really big deals.  I bet there are millions spread between FL, GA, and NC -- all important states in this election -- that simply won't vote because they are too busy getting their lives back together.  We talk about whatever Muslim group in MI or whatever.  These two weather events will outpace them all.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

2 minutes ago, linux said:

I said it before but it bears repeating state polling is fucking crazy, that is why I pay attention to national polls that have way less variance but are fucked by the stupid EC.

District polls and national polls are telling a very diff story from state level polling - unless Harris is going to hit 2016 levels of WWC support and shed 10% of non-white voters and pick up zero additional suburb/college voter support.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

District polls and national polls are telling a very diff story from state level polling - unless Harris is going to hit 2016 levels of WWC support and shed 10% of non-white voters and pick up zero additional suburb/college voter support.

It's just wild that the national's show she is popular, liked, and people are feeling better about the economy, while Trump remains as divisive and generally unliked as ever.....and the states show undecideds almost uniformly breakng to Trump.  Like one or the other is totally wrong in judging the mood of the electorate. 

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It's just wild that the national's show she is popular, liked, and people are feeling better about the economy, while Trump remains as divisive and generally unliked as ever.....and the states show undecideds almost uniformly breakng to Trump.  Like one or the other is totally wrong in judging the mood of the electorate. 

Yeah I don’t get it either. I don’t want to say they are intentionally over sampling Trump voters but the NYT did admit they were adding in extra Trump voter demographics (if Trump voters were red M&Ms, they are intentionally adding extra red ones to the bowl) and that’s all I can come up with

National polls show a 3-5 point Harris race, district polls show her doing better in the suburbs than Biden and when you have state polls saying he’s going to sweep a majority of the swing states.  

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, miguelito said:

Didn't Putin come out and corroborate Woodward's story?

I am waiting for the other shoe to drop on this.  I doubt Trump snuck into a warehouse, stole some machines, and Fedex'ed it to Putin.  There has to be a paper trail on it.  Maybe it's covered by executive privilege which would prevent getting it through FOIA.  But Biden has access to it and can release it.  If it is exists.  It's possible the story is wrong.  It is also possible that they are waiting for Trump to deny it directly. It's also possible they have it and won't release it, due to some deference for executive privilege. 

18 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

This data (and the results from 2022) tells me that focusing on transphobia is a very dumb strategy. Maybe the ads tested well with focus groups.

 

I don't think we are reading the polling the same way.  

  • Banning government insurance from covering the costs of gender-affirming surgeries and therapies (+9)

So, most Americans don't believe government insurance should cover it.  I imagine that number goes up when you add "....for prisoners."

Still, I don't think this is something that would push independents to the polls. Who knows.  We are a stupid people. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

22 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

These hurricanes are really big deals.  I bet there are millions spread between FL, GA, and NC -- all important states in this election -- that simply won't vote because they are too busy getting their lives back together.  We talk about whatever Muslim group in MI or whatever.  These two weather events will outpace them all.

The R's seem to be worried as hell about NC.  Sure, Asheville is a liberal outpost but if you know anything about Western NC, you know it's hard red.  David Axelrod took heat for saying it but he pointed out the Asheville crowd is wealthier and more educated and as a result, they'll still likely vote.  The rest?  Maybe, maybe not.

Now you throw in conservative parts of Florida and who knows?

I find it ironic that the Republicans have spent the last four years making it harder to vote are now going to get fucked by it.

  • Hook 'Em 4
  • Fuck Around and Find Out 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It's just wild that the national's show she is popular, liked, and people are feeling better about the economy, while Trump remains as divisive and generally unliked as ever.....and the states show undecideds almost uniformly breakng to Trump.  Like one or the other is totally wrong in judging the mood of the electorate. 

And I have yet to see anyone mention that damn near every single key election country-wide since 2021 has had actual results to the left of the polls.  I get that this is an election year, but to completely ignore that reality is wild.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Tuco said:

I am waiting for the other shoe to drop on this.  I doubt Trump snuck into a warehouse, stole some machines, and Fedex'ed it to Putin.  There has to be a paper trail on it.  Maybe it's covered by executive privilege which would prevent getting it through FOIA.  But Biden has access to it and can release it.  If it is exists.  It's possible the story is wrong.  It is also possible that they are waiting for Trump to deny it directly. It's also possible they have it and won't release it, due to some deference for executive privilege. 

 

I don't think we are reading the polling the same way.  

  • Banning government insurance from covering the costs of gender-affirming surgeries and therapies (+9)

So, most Americans don't believe government insurance should cover it.  I imagine that number goes up when you add "....for prisoners."

Still, I don't think this is something that would push independents to the polls. Who knows.  We are a stupid people. 

I have no doubt people are against using tax dollars for gender reassignment surgery (honestly I expected it to do much worse than -9) but trans issues are definitely not something that cracks the top ten most important issues for anyone except trans Americans or people with loved ones who are transgender, so the heavy focus on transphobia is a real head-scratcher.

Like, I get the xenophobic stuff because immigration is a top-five issue (and close to #1 for Trump's base) and Democrats have been talking about the border, too. They could be talking about the economy instead of fearmongering about women's sports. I think it's a losing strategy and I hope they keep it up.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

9 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It's just wild that the national's show she is popular, liked, and people are feeling better about the economy, while Trump remains as divisive and generally unliked as ever.....and the states show undecideds almost uniformly breakng to Trump.  Like one or the other is totally wrong in judging the mood of the electorate. 

They can both be true, because of who the undecideds are and where they live, but there aren’t many. The opinion cake is baked, and this election really comes down to

1) how much of an electoral advantage the Republicans still have as more states have urbanized and 

2) GOTV

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

They can both be true, because of who the undecideds are and where they live, but there aren’t many. The opinion cake is baked, and this election really comes down to

1) how much of an electoral advantage the Republicans still have as more states have urbanized and 

2) GOTV

Good thing the GOP has zero ground game. Republicans have been screaming that they don’t see any canvassers and the “field offices” are empty storefronts in strip malls 

  • Fuck Around and Find Out 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah I don’t get it either. I don’t want to say they are intentionally over sampling Trump voters but the NYT did admit they were adding in extra Trump voter demographics (if Trump voters were red M&Ms, they are intentionally adding extra red ones to the bowl) and that’s all I can come up with

National polls show a 3-5 point Harris race, district polls show her doing better in the suburbs than Biden and when you have state polls saying he’s going to sweep a majority of the swing states.  

 

9 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

And I have yet to see anyone mention that damn near every single key election country-wide since 2021 has had actual results to the left of the polls.  I get that this is an election year, but to completely ignore that reality is wild.

These are the two things I’m struggling with. Even chucking extra M&M’s in, she remains much more favorable than him. Plus some of the extra M&M’s they are adding (black men, young white men, and Hispanics) are notoriously unreliable likely voters. But I guess this is modern polling when 80% of people will only answer a call from their mom/dad/kid. 
 

The fact that Gallego is winning bigly, abortion is on the ballot, and Harris is losing is one of those “Magnetism is magic and you can’t convince me otherwise” Wtf.

Edited by Bateshorn
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, Gap03 said:

 

MyPillow guy is apparently negotiable on the 14 words part, but he's all-fucking-in on the "Heil Hitler (Trump)" / 88 part.

uuuuuh you're not supposed to be proud of the boot camp scenes in Full Metal Jacket, that shit drove a man to murder-suicide. Of fucking course Trump misses the entire point of that half of the movie.

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I have no doubt people are against using tax dollars for gender reassignment surgery (honestly I expected it to do much worse than -9) but trans issues are definitely not something that cracks the top ten most important issues for anyone except trans Americans or people with loved ones who are transgender, so the heavy focus on transphobia is a real head-scratcher.

 

Agreeing to gender affirmation surgery for prisoners or govt-issued insured recipients, is a loser issue for Dems. Most Americans struggle with this issue and believe it's not a life saving treatment especially for prisoners. Dems should be clear that tax dollars won't go to federal prisoners for these treatments.

  • Hook 'Em 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites

12 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Agreeing to gender affirmation surgery for prisoners or govt-issued insured recipients, is a loser issue for Dems. Most Americans struggle with this issue and believe it's not a life saving treatment especially for prisoners. Dems should be clear that tax dollars won't go to federal prisoners for these treatments.

Just defy the courts?

https://www.nbcnews.com/nbc-out/out-news/federal-court-orders-first-gender-affirming-surgery-trans-prisoner-rcna25377

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Can someone explain the firewall? I keep hearing this and I don’t understand it 

Joshua Smithley is PA's version of Jon Ralston.  His estimate is Dems need a 390,000 vote firewall (solely Dem returns - Rep returns, not including indies) to feel good heading into Election Day on the presidential side and 350,000 to feel good on the Senate side.  Obviously if the indies break 55-45 for Harris, it builds the firewall a little more, but you don't want to project independents like that. 

 

 

  • Hook 'Em 5
  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 hour ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

See but that just proves the point. Trump has to use other people's popularity to pass along his message because he really doesn't have much outside of his core base of weirdos. People didn't follow him to truth social, because he has "low ratings."

This is a flawed concept. Before Trump got permanently suspended from Twitter, he had like 100 million followers. He still has over 91 million followers on Twitter, but they de-platformed him. Just becuase he's a narcissist and only posts on Truth Social, doesn't mean that his message isn't attractive to vast amounts of people, or that or that his message isn't getting to massive amounts of people. It just means Truth Social is small. 

If he had "low ratings" he wouldn't be a lock for 46% of the electorate. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

11 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Agreeing to gender affirmation surgery for prisoners or govt-issued insured recipients, is a loser issue for Dems. Most Americans struggle with this issue and believe it's not a life saving treatment especially for prisoners. Dems should be clear that tax dollars won't go to federal prisoners for these treatments.

I struggle with, I guess, standard of care issues with the prison population when the question comes up for whatever reason. Stuff like should they have eligible for organ transplants. Is there a level of medical care that is forfeited by virtue of being incarcerated?  Is it sentence dependent?  Age dependent?  
 

Even food quality is a conversation- is bare minimum low quality food ok?  Is it cruel?  Is the cheapest allowed food the only financially responsible thing to do?

but unlike food, I’d guess that organ transplants and gender affirmation surgery is rare and therefore not a large number on the expense line.  And then unlike organ replacement, a gender affirmation surgery isn’t taking opportunity away from another person. 
 

So I guess in summation, gender affirmation surgery for the incarcerated doesn’t seem like something worth being concerned about in the financial sense.  Within the context of how inmates treat each other, maybe that’s a problem.  I don’t know, I only see depictions on tv and movies. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

I struggle with, I guess, standard of care issues with the prison population when the question comes up for whatever reason. Stuff like should they have eligible for organ transplants. Is there a level of medical care that is forfeited by virtue of being incarcerated?  Is it sentence dependent?  Age dependent?  
 

Even food quality is a conversation- is bare minimum low quality food ok?  Is it cruel?  Is the cheapest allowed food the only financially responsible thing to do?

but unlike food, I’d guess that organ transplants and gender affirmation surgery is rare and therefore not a large number on the expense line.  And then unlike organ replacement, a gender affirmation surgery isn’t taking opportunity away from another person. 
 

So I guess in summation, gender affirmation surgery for the incarcerated doesn’t seem like something worth being concerned about in the financial sense.  Within the context of how inmates treat each other, maybe that’s a problem.  I don’t know, I only see depictions on tv and movies. 

If your side "lost" in prison practice, you get burnt toast and cold runny eggs. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I swear if this did happen, his percentage of black voters would probably triple.  Because nothing about that fat piece of shit makes sense. 

NY Times/CNN: “Raw, powerful, refreshing language from the Republican nominee. Will Harris be able to respond before Election Day?”
  • Haha 2
  • Rage+1 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Joshua Smithley is PA's version of Jon Ralston.  His estimate is Dems need a 390,000 vote firewall (solely Dem returns - Rep returns, not including indies) to feel good heading into Election Day on the presidential side and 350,000 to feel good on the Senate side.  Obviously if the indies break 55-45 for Harris, it builds the firewall a little more, but you don't want to project independents like that. 

 

 

I'm a little sleep deprived, am I reading this right or did the firewall just grow? The tweet says "raw new drop" But it looks to me like their firewall grew? Explain it to me like I'm 5.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

10 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

This is a flawed concept. Before Trump got permanently suspended from Twitter, he had like 100 million followers. He still has over 91 million followers on Twitter, but they de-platformed him. Just becuase he's a narcissist and only posts on Truth Social, doesn't mean that his message isn't attractive to vast amounts of people, or that or that his message isn't getting to massive amounts of people. It just means Truth Social is small. 

If he had "low ratings" he wouldn't be a lock for 46% of the electorate. 

Twitter, the place overrun with bots, is a poor metric for popularity these days. That he had 100 million followers and nobody followed him to truth social is precisely my point, he doesn't have an audience, he has a crowd already gathered that he was speaking to.

  • Hook 'Em 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

I'm a little sleep deprived, am I reading this right or did the firewall just grow? The tweet says "raw new drop" But it looks to me like their firewall grew? Explain it to me like I'm 5.

I believe it shows how many ballots are returned by each group D/R/I. And Ds outnumbered Rs by 30k

Edited by hookem2010
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

I'm a little sleep deprived, am I reading this right or did the firewall just grow? The tweet says "raw new drop" But it looks to me like their firewall grew? Explain it to me like I'm 5.

It grew about 30k votes from yesterday. It was def a huge dump of votes. Like he said, it may not be sustainable but we’ve been seeing a good 10-15k net per day before this. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

3 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

I'm a little sleep deprived, am I reading this right or did the firewall just grow? The tweet says "raw new drop" But it looks to me like their firewall grew? Explain it to me like I'm 5.

Yes, it grew a lot. 

2 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

Twitter, the place overrun with bots, is a poor metric for popularity these days. That he had 100 million followers and nobody followed him to truth social is precisely my point, he doesn't have an audience, he has a crowd already gathered that he was speaking to.

Oh for fuck's sake, man. He hasn't posted in over 4 years there or so and he's still a top 5 or top 10 follow, irrespective of fucking bots or not. He has almost as many follows as Taylor swift. I can't believe you're saying a guy who is going to get 70+ million votes has no appeal and no audience. I fucking wish that were the case. 

No one followed him to Truth Social beause Truth social has NO ONE ELSE THERE. No other personalities, celebritires, experts, news agencies, etc. You can rave all you want about a specific burger, at a specific restaurant, but if that chef moves 2 hours away and offers only that one burger as the dish in his new location, people aren't going to make the effort to fucking follow that preson in massive numbers. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

20 minutes ago, Foosters said:

The dem party or candidates only have to state that they disagree with the court findings and are open to future laws to address it. Disagreeing with a court order and enforcing that order are not at odds with one another.

I'm not arguing the issue itself but rather the political reality of needing to win elections.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

I'm a little sleep deprived, am I reading this right or did the firewall just grow? The tweet says "raw new drop" But it looks to me like their firewall grew? Explain it to me like I'm 5.

"raw net" is the thing that "dropped" (meaning, the information was published, "taylor swift album just dropped" and not meaning that it decreased). It's stupid slang. But the "raw net" actually increased ("jumped") for Dems.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

8 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

I believe it shows how many ballots are returned by each group D/R/I. And Ds outnumbered Rs by 30k

 

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It grew about 30k votes from yesterday. It was def a huge dump of votes. Like he said, it may not be sustainable but we’ve been seeing a good 10-15k net per day before this. 

appreciate it, that's what I thought but the wording kinda threw me off, cause drop can mean "incoming" or also "going down."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

 

appreciate it, that's what I thought but the wording kinda threw me off, cause drop can mean "incoming" or also "going down."

It was a drop of new ballots. I believe it only updates once a day so he reports on it in the morning 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

57 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

And I have yet to see anyone mention that damn near every single key election country-wide since 2021 has had actual results to the left of the polls.  I get that this is an election year, but to completely ignore that reality is wild.

Ever since Dobbs.  It's like it mattered or something.

What pisses me off is that every single pollster knows this yet people like Frank Luntz are back again telling us how this is 50/50 despite Harris leading and then factoring in the hidden Dobbs vote.  Abortion doesn't show up in polling because people are lying about it.  There's no other explanation.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

No one followed him to Truth Social beause Truth social has NO ONE ELSE THERE

THAT'S THE FUCKING POINT. THE ENTIRE POINT OF TRUTH SOCIAL WAS DONALD TRUMP SAYING "FUCK IT, I'LL BUILD MY OWN AND EVERYONE WILL FOLLOW" AND NOBODY FOLLOWED. DONALD TRUMP DOESN'T BRING IN THE RATINGS.

Edited by WelfareBuysMyWeed
Link to comment
Share on other sites

The worst part is even when someone is personally negatively affected by republican policies, most of the time they don't change how they vote. Hell, I barely trust that Victoria will vote Harris. For every Victoria there's probably three others who are still going to vote republican. Case in point: Uvalde.

  • Hook 'Em 1
  • Rage+1 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites

4 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Ever since Dobbs.  It's like it mattered or something.

What pisses me off is that every single pollster knows this yet people like Frank Luntz are back again telling us how this is 50/50 despite Harris leading and then factoring in the hidden Dobbs vote.  Abortion doesn't show up in polling because people are lying about it.  There's no other explanation.

Republicans and their media and polling mouthpieces have been telling us for 2 years that abortion doesn’t matter and then an election happens and they go all shocked pikachu face 

  • Hook 'Em 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Republicans and their media and polling mouthpieces have been telling us for 2 years that abortion doesn’t matter and then an election happens and they go all shocked pikachu face 

What's infuriating about Frank Luntz is he's a good pollster and knows better.  He was wrong in 22, admitted he was wrong, and admitted why.  Now here he is again with the 50/50 narrative.  Gotta stay on TV, bills to pay, etc.....

Link to comment
Share on other sites



×
×
  • Create New...