2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Js1 85,338]

8 hours ago, Hiphopopotamos said:

 

Marist has been all over the map. 

Harris winning 52-47 (0.5 points better than Biden) but they also have Trump doing:

• 2 points better in Texas
• 2 points worse in Ohio
• 1.5 points better in Florida
• 1.5 points better in Arizona
• 1.5 points better in Georgia
• 1.5 points worse in North Carolina
• 2 points better in Pennsylvania
• 0.5 points worse in Wisconsin
• 2.5 points worse in Michigan

Granted, some of those are almost a month old, but there we go again - national polls show her doing as well (or better) than Biden, but somehow worse in almost every swing state

[BrickHorn 18,235]

28 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I don't disagree with any of that, but if you are intending to vote to hurt my family I have no obligation to continue being your friend. Especially if it's already been explained and you've made your choice. In that situation I'm not the one who terminated the friendship. 

This is where I am with both friends and family. I’ve saved those I could. The rest? Time to tell them exactly what they have become and that they can fuck off.

[Huckleberry 32,861]

I agree they feel a bit strange but it's entirely believable that after 8 years of Trump we are going to see Harris wipe the floor with him even more than usual in California, New York, and other deep blue states.

[Js1 85,338]

5 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I agree they feel a bit strange but it's entirely believable that after 8 years of Trump we are going to see Harris wipe the floor with him even more than usual in California, New York, and other deep blue states.

That's not conventional wisdom though - he actually could do/is doing slightly better in deep blue states, like Republicans did in CA and NY in 2022, which would narrow the popular vote, but still lose the EC because of the Blue Wall going to Harris 

Nate Cohn calculated that the GOP's EC advantage in 2024 is like, 0.5% or something. 

In 2022, the GOP did better in the Sun Belt, NY and CA, but failed to do as well in the upper Midwest - which is one reason why Dems kept the Senate, almost won the House, despite losing the House popular vote by ~2 points, and won most of the governor races. 

I still think there's a disconnect of pollsters trying to adjust their polling to compensate for Trump for state-level polling, but if she wins 52% of the popular vote, she's easily winning MI, PA, WI, NV, probably AZ and flipping NC. 

 

Edited October 16 by Js1

[Biff Tannen 45,687]

6 hours ago, Jhawkmvp said:

This.  There are a lot of quiet racists out there. I grew up a white kid in lily white Kansas, but I grew up in a meat packing town so there were a lot of races there to take advantage of, at the time, well paying meat packing jobs for unskilled labor. A lot of immigrants would come for those jobs.  Growing up my siblings and I had Hispanic, black, and Asian friends in school and they would come over to play and stay overnight all the time, went on trips with us, etc. I never heard my parents use racial slanders. They always treated my friends well. In college, at 20 years old, I am dating a black coed. I come home during break and my father pulls me aside. He tells me it is okay to date a black woman, just don't marry one. I am pretty floored because I had never seen my father indicate he was racist in any way. I just looked him in the eye and told him if I did decide to marry a black woman he better get on board and treat her like a queen or else he'd never be a part of my life from the wedding day forward.  At least he raised me right and did not expose me to his racism as a child, even if in the end his view on this made me lose a lot of respect for him permanently, as an adult. My parents divorced the next year, Dad re-married and became a Southern Baptist like his bible thumping, new wife. My step-mom will drop bigoted/racist comments from time to time, mostly about whatever new immigrant group is working at the meat packing plant when I visit, but my father still doesn't. I just know he silently feels the same way as my step-mom.  Dad always votes straight R and will vote for Trump again this election for the 3rd time.  No Trump talk, no Trump flags, no Trump paraphernalia, no Trump signs, etc. His Trump support is silent.  Just like his racism. 

I mean, clearly he's ashamed and knows it's wrong, deep down right?  I just don't get it.  

[Captainant 27,669]

34 minutes ago, locodos said:

He has a quick wit and high EQ and can figure out how to do just about anything except pass college English.  He has an undiagnosed learning disability along with dyslexia.  But his family's ethos seemed to be "help is for the weak, just work harder" Now he has his own service company that he truly built himself from scratch.  But making rounds in a truck and listening to talk radio is a hell of a drug.

That's an interesting pair of data points. Much of English is about breaking down rhetorical strategies and language to understand what your counterpart is communicating. The fact that he struggles with that academically and gave up on developing that part of his intellect, squares up cleanly with falling for AM radio shock jock bullshit. 

The republicans attack on education is a long game to create more uncritical people that will believe whatever most upsets them 

[Scheiss Meister 8,408]

6 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

I mean, clearly he's ashamed and knows it's wrong, deep down right?  I just don't get it.  

Not necessarily.  Most of the bigots I know keep their mouths shut so that they won't face the social consequences of expressing their bigotry.  Remove the social pressure to not openly express their bigotry, and they'll let the hate flow.  We've seen that with trump opening that door for them.

I've seen a lot of racism expressed because I'm mayonnaise white and the racists thought that I would automatically agree with them.  Like I'm part of their safe space.  When I push back, they shut up.  It's not guilt, they just don't want the push back.

[Chuckie Finster 22,694]

19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I still think there's a disconnect of pollsters trying to adjust their polling to compensate for Trump for state-level polling, but if she wins 52% of the popular vote, she's easily winning MI, PA, WI, NV, probably AZ and flipping NC. 

 

We really need to revise our national elections so that any candidate that gets over 50% wins outright, with a deferral to the electoral college if not.  Would encourage national campaigning, increase the importance of third parties, and swing states would still keep their significance in close elections.

[texas08 1,599]

Let’s see how many “a strange man trying to disguise himself is walking around my house” reports the neighborhood patrol gets. 

Already got a confused angry look from a boomer riding a golf cart. 
 

ITS ON. 

 

[Tuco 5,076]

7 hours ago, Jhawkmvp said:

This.  There are a lot of quiet racists out there. I grew up a white kid in lily white Kansas, but I grew up in a meat packing town so there were a lot of races there to take advantage of, at the time, well paying meat packing jobs for unskilled labor. A lot of immigrants would come for those jobs.  Growing up my siblings and I had Hispanic, black, and Asian friends in school and they would come over to play and stay overnight all the time, went on trips with us, etc. I never heard my parents use racial slanders. They always treated my friends well. In college, at 20 years old, I am dating a black coed. I come home during break and my father pulls me aside. He tells me it is okay to date a black woman, just don't marry one. I am pretty floored because I had never seen my father indicate he was racist in any way. I just looked him in the eye and told him if I did decide to marry a black woman he better get on board and treat her like a queen or else he'd never be a part of my life from the wedding day forward.  At least he raised me right and did not expose me to his racism as a child, even if in the end his view on this made me lose a lot of respect for him permanently, as an adult. My parents divorced the next year, Dad re-married and became a Southern Baptist like his bible thumping, new wife. My step-mom will drop bigoted/racist comments from time to time, mostly about whatever new immigrant group is working at the meat packing plant when I visit, but my father still doesn't. I just know he silently feels the same way as my step-mom.  Dad always votes straight R and will vote for Trump again this election for the 3rd time.  No Trump talk, no Trump flags, no Trump paraphernalia, no Trump signs, etc. His Trump support is silent.  Just like his racism. 

I had a friend from Florida who said Nebraskan racism was worse than Deep South racism because Nebraskan racism had stealth technology. 

[Willfully Horn 8,017]

2 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:Not necessarily.  Most of the bigots I know keep their mouths shut so that they won't face the social consequences of expressing their bigotry.  Remove the social pressure to not openly express their bigotry, and they'll let the hate flow.  We've seen that with trump opening that door for them.

I've seen a lot of racism expressed because I'm mayonnaise white and the racists thought that I would automatically agree with them.  Like I'm part of their safe space.  When I push back, they shut up.  It's not guilt, they just don't want the push back.

A college friend dropped the n bomb in my presence earlier this year. I’ve known him since 1983, and it was the first time I had ever heard him use that word. We don’t talk much anymore, but he ain’t voting turnip.

[Huckleberry 32,861]

41 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That's not conventional wisdom though - he actually could do/is doing slightly better in deep blue states, like Republicans did in CA and NY in 2022, which would narrow the popular vote, but still lose the EC because of the Blue Wall going to Harris 

Nate Cohn calculated that the GOP's EC advantage in 2024 is like, 0.5% or something. 

In 2022, the GOP did better in the Sun Belt, NY and CA, but failed to do as well in the upper Midwest - which is one reason why Dems kept the Senate, almost won the House, despite losing the House popular vote by ~2 points, and won most of the governor races. 

I still think there's a disconnect of pollsters trying to adjust their polling to compensate for Trump for state-level polling, but if she wins 52% of the popular vote, she's easily winning MI, PA, WI, NV, probably AZ and flipping NC. 

 

Understood, I just think it's likelier as an explanation. As you point out the state versus national polls don't make sense. I'm just saying that the whole blue states getting redder theory might be the thing that's wrong once votes are counted. People are migrating to where they agree with the politics, not away from those places. 

[Huckleberry 32,861]

21 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

We really need to revise our national elections so that any candidate that gets over 50% wins outright, with a deferral to the electoral college if not.  Would encourage national campaigning, increase the importance of third parties, and swing states would still keep their significance in close elections.

Problem there is you just made RFK, Jr. a billionaire. 

[hookemATL 11,735]

29 minutes ago, Scheiss Meister said:

I've seen a lot of racism expressed because I'm mayonnaise white and the racists thought that I would automatically agree with them.  Like I'm part of their safe space. 

[hookem2010 2,624]

Up to 257k on the PA firewall. Already 2/3 of the way there. If it does stretch out to the desired 390k, how much of a sure thing is PA at that point? Can I buy champagne yet, instead of whiskey?

[RomaVicta 29,908]

On 10/11/2024 at 10:16 AM, WelfareBuysMyWeed said:

My dad wasn't paying attention to pat buchanans or any of that shit. He was putting himself through night school while working long days as a carpenter raising 3 kids and paying off his house. My dad didn't listen to politics radio, he was listening to the Eagles. He wasn't watching Fox News, he was playing baseball with his sons. Believe it or not, there's a percentage of the population who doesn't follow politics AT ALL because they do other shit. My dad grew up when the perception of democrats in the south were the same people enforcing Jim Crow. Then he went to Vietnam. And then he came back and basically never updated his political views again until Biden ran for office. I don't know how in the world that sounds unbelievable. It is precisely that my dad retired just as Biden was running in 2020 that he finally had time to sit down and pay attention. And he's adjusted his views accordingly. He said he was holding his nose in 2020, but now in 2024, he's full on flag-waving on board, putting his money where his mouth is. The republicans have Donald Trump to blame.

Gone for two days and I'm 30 pages behind. I'll address this even though it's old.

The above describes exactly what is wrong with how this republic works. "Too busy working and famliy-ing to pay attention."

In this time period you describe, unions were assailed and things like FMLA were debated. As a former soldier, he may have had insight into all the other invasions and military actions we took that cost trillions of dollars which, again, impacts the functionality of government in issues other than war policy.

He might have noticed the radical Christian infiltration of the State School Board and their impact on textbook selection via the Gabler family in the 70s and 80s:

Quote

More important, [the Gablers] have become an integral institution of the New Right, whose agenda they share almost point for point. Their work is commended by Moral Majority leader Jerry Falwell, anti-ERA activist and Eagle Forum founder Phyllis Schlafly, and New Right direct-mail expert Richard Viquerie. They participate in gatherings sponsored by such New Right organizations as the Committee for the Survival of a Free Congress and the Texas-based Pro-Family Forum. Texas Monthly

My father worked hard and supported a family of 6. Like a huge number of Americans, he took the daily newspaper and read it in the morning before going to work. He wasn't a better man than your Dad, but he was casually involved in reading and forming political opinions.

I believe the ill-considered cliche of not discussing politics or religion (I think that was originally directed at family gatherings at Thanksgiving) and a growing anti-intellectual bent in the way we determine who gets their "man card" have played a part in this unravelling of seeing political involvement as a civic responsibility on par with obeying the law.

The ambulatory morons who form the undecided are almost certainly the types who abhor conflict of any kind. Conflict is the way of a republic. Today we have an embrace of ignorance among the uninvolved and the embrace of the basest of emotions for too many that are involved.

Edited October 16 by RomaVicta

[Js1 85,338]

4 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Up to 257k on the PA firewall. Already 2/3 of the way there. If it does stretch out to the desired 390k, how much of a sure thing is PA at that point? Can I buy champagne yet, instead of whiskey?

I’d wait and see what it looks like on November 4. I don’t know if there’s a number where you’re like, it’s in the bag, but Smithley was pretty nails in both 2022 Senate and 2023 SCOPA

[texasdago 7,573]

4 hours ago, SydneyCarton said:

I struggle with Trump people I know. I try to avoid the topic and convince where I can. But the thing that stops me about Dago’s post above is…this person said they are aware they are voting for someone evil. If that’s ACTUALLY what they said…that’s not lost. That’s a complete understanding and still making a conscious choice for Evil. Hell, the guy could have said he just won’t vote. But he’s willingly voting for evil. If that’s what actually went down, then that isn’t lost. That’s knowingly complicit. 

Yeah, so he said "I know many folks like me they cant stand him but the threat to civilization posed by her is too great to ignore" so I just shot him an e-mail asking about this.

He's not a Trumper - never really acted like a Trumper or help Trumpy beliefs.  My guess is that he is looking through a misinformed financial lens and making a decision based on that.

Y'all... I've had no problem unfriending and ignoring friends who went off the MAGA rails.  I block them out and move on because they're lost.  This friend is not like that which is why it is so confusing and, as I said, disappointing to see the stance he is taking.  I'll work on him.  He is a close friend - I'm not kicking him to the curb... not until the brown shirts come for us... 

[Red Five 40,859]

Just now, texasdago said:

Yeah, so he said "I know many folks like me they cant stand him but the threat to civilization posed by her is too great to ignore" so I just shot him an e-mail asking about this.

He sounds insane. 

[TwiceHorn 31,472]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

No.

You’re sort of talking about acculturation, not assimilation.

That's fair.  My "analysis" of the topic is hazy at best.  There is a clear desire or demand on the part of racists that others "assimilate" or acculturate.  The motivation alone seems to negate the desireability of that.

Nevertheless, there seems to be an advantage to a society if the various cultures can find a common ground and the more the better, however that is achieved or attained and whatever it looks like.

[Js1 85,338]

7 minutes ago, texasdago said:

threat to civilization posed by her is too great to ignore

 

7 minutes ago, texasdago said:

He's not a Trumper - never really acted like a Trumper or help Trumpy beliefs

Those things don’t square, dude. She is not a threat to civilization. That is 100% a Trump talking point

[jimmyjazz 45,957]

My wife's best friend is from a multi-generational Hispanic family in Kerrville.  I don't doubt there are some right-wingers in her family tree, given her home town, but she has always been vocally left-leaning, as is her husband (with whom I am very good friends).

The other day she told my wife "I just don't know who to vote for".  Now, I don't think she actively consumes political media, but it goes to show how the smear campaign against Harris can sow seeds of doubt and discontent, even though it's just fear-mongering.  If one is not paying close attention, it can be difficult to suss out the lunacy.

[Willfully Horn 8,017]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

That is 100% a Trump talking point

I’m not a puppet, you’re the puppet.

[Doc Sam Beckett 5,793]

35 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

Up to 257k on the PA firewall. Already 2/3 of the way there. If it does stretch out to the desired 390k, how much of a sure thing is PA at that point? Can I buy champagne yet, instead of whiskey?

I want to blow right through 400k

[1978horn 892]

13 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

My wife's best friend is from a multi-generational Hispanic family in Kerrville.  I don't doubt there are some right-wingers in her family tree, given her home town, but she has always been vocally left-leaning, as is her husband (with whom I am very good friends).

The other day she told my wife "I just don't know who to vote for".  Now, I don't think she actively consumes political media, but it goes to show how the smear campaign against Harris can sow seeds of doubt and discontent, even though it's just fear-mongering.  If one is not paying close attention, it can be difficult to suss out the lunacy.

I know folks who are left and always have been and are not voting because of issues in the Middle East and Israel.  It is maddening to me.

[jimmyjazz 45,957]

3 minutes ago, 1978horn said:

I know folks who are left and always have been and are not voting because of issues in the Middle East and Israel.  It is maddening to me.

For her it's distrust of Harris.  It's certainly maddening.  It won't surprise me if she doesn't vote.  At least it's here in Texas where it probably doesn't matter, but that message is infecting people nationwide.

[gmr548 16,580]

1 hour ago, Huckleberry said:

I agree they feel a bit strange but it's entirely believable that after 8 years of Trump we are going to see Harris wipe the floor with him even more than usual in California, New York, and other deep blue states.

 

39 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

Understood, I just think it's likelier as an explanation. As you point out the state versus national polls don't make sense. I'm just saying that the whole blue states getting redder theory might be the thing that's wrong once votes are counted. People are migrating to where they agree with the politics, not away from those places. 

It's less about migration and more about where Trump has made gains in polling - a major driver of that is people of color. Most of the larger, noncompetitive states on both sides are significantly less white than the nation as a whole - CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, NJ, etc. It's plausible, perhaps even the base case if you lean into polling, that Trump could see a boost in the national popular vote but see his relative EC advantage eroded because Harris has held up better among whites - WI, MI, PA, and NE-2 are the first path to 270 and all notably whiter than the nation overall.

Side note, I think New Mexico could use more polling because of this. It hasn't been polled in a month. Harris has held a decent lead in the polls that do exist so I'm not saying it's going to flip or anything but it would be nice to get a poll or two to see where it stands now.

[David Dennison 18,860]

12 minutes ago, 1978horn said:

I know folks who are left and always have been and are not voting because of issues in the Middle East and Israel.  It is maddening to me.

[Red Five 40,859]

9 minutes ago, jimmyjazz said:

For her it's distrust of Harris. 

It must be all her talk about being a dictator and shredding the constitution . Plus being completely non-intelligible recently.

[SydneyCarton 48,106]

38 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Yeah, so he said "I know many folks like me they cant stand him but the threat to civilization posed by her is too great to ignore" so I just shot him an e-mail asking about this.

He's not a Trumper - never really acted like a Trumper or help Trumpy beliefs.  My guess is that he is looking through a misinformed financial lens and making a decision based on that.

Y'all... I've had no problem unfriending and ignoring friends who went off the MAGA rails.  I block them out and move on because they're lost.  This friend is not like that which is why it is so confusing and, as I said, disappointing to see the stance he is taking.  I'll work on him.  He is a close friend - I'm not kicking him to the curb... not until the brown shirts come for us... 

So he didn't say he knew that Trump was evil. That's an important distinction. 

If it truly is finanical, send 20 clips of trump not being able to answer ANY direct question. Ukraine. Health Plan. Whatever. Start with the economic forum yesterday. 

9 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

It's less about migration and more about where Trump has made gains in polling - a major driver of that is people of color. Most of the larger, noncompetitive states on both sides are significantly less white than the nation as a whole - CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, NJ, etc. It's plausible, perhaps even the base case if you lean into polling, that Trump could see a boost in the national popular vote but see his relative EC advantage eroded because Harris has held up better among whites - WI, MI, PA, and NE-2 are the first path to 270 and all notably whiter than the nation overall.

Side note, I think New Mexico could use more polling because of this. It hasn't been polled in a month. Harris has held a decent lead in the polls that do exist so I'm not saying it's going to flip or anything but it would be nice to get a poll or two to see where it stands now.

@Pancho and @Thatguy would like a word with you, and they demand to see your math. 

[Js1 85,338]

17 minutes ago, Doc Sam Beckett said:

I want to blow right through 400k

I saw someone speculate 500k is not out of the realm of possibility, though the thinking is it will slow down closer to Election Day. But who knows 

[Js1 85,338]

Good closing argument….

Trump’s closing message to a number of different groups increasingly includes this harsh line: Members of the group not voting for him need to have their “head examined.”

“Any African American or Hispanic that votes for Kamala … you got to have your head examined,” Trump said during an Atlanta rally Tuesday night. “They are screwing you.”

It’s part of an ongoing trend of the former president telling specific demographic groups they deserve of ridicule or have something wrong with their mental state if they’re not voting for him, one that has picked up in a recent weeks.

[Ghost of LL 15,531]

18 hours ago, Js1 said:

Dem strategy seems to be to juice turnout on the first day of early voting -

Obama will open up early voting in Las Vegas, Harris will open up early voting in Detroit, Walz/Obama will open up early voting in Madison

An important point for all of us who care about our preferred candidate(s)--please vote on the first day of early voting.

Every night, the campaigns get a list of people who early voted from each county's office.  When they see that you voted, they can cross you off their GOTV list.  So that is one less call and one less door-knock the campaign's GOTV people need to do.  And that frees them to focus on other people who actually might not vote.

If you're on this thread, then you're fucking voting.  Even a single minute the party or the candidate spends on GOTV on you is a fucking waste.  So don't make them waste that time/resources.  Go vote the first day of early voting!

[Pancho 44,804]

24 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

It's less about migration and more about where Trump has made gains in polling - a major driver of that is people of color. Most of the larger, noncompetitive states on both sides are significantly less white than the nation as a whole - CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, NJ, etc. I

 

With Latinos, hmmmm yes. With Blacks?

[RomaVicta 29,908]

12 hours ago, SizzleChest said:

I don't know, man.  I know them and have been very close for 30 years.  I just try to unfuck them.  That's all.  If it works, it's a win.

 

12 hours ago, SizzleChest said:

 

Happy for you that it's all so clear and simple.  

 

I try to stand for something more than companionship and shared experience. It's not easy to cut loose old friends, but integrity comes first if I'm to be a valuable friend myself.

I don't countenance disregard for other people and the country among persons that I call friends. It diminishes my self-opinion and overall worth. The most profound argument that I can make about another person's value is withdrawing my friendship which, I hope, means something.

[locodos 5,387]

2 hours ago, Pancho said:

No.

You’re sort of talking about acculturation, not assimilation.

I had to look this up...   I think he's actually referring to amalgamation.  I don't care what it's called, I just want my Char Siu Bao and snow pea tips for breakfast, a Spicy Patty for lunch, and Lechon for dinner... 'merica!

https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/acculturation

Quote

What is the difference between acculturation, assimilation, and amalgamation?

Acculturation is one of several forms of culture contact, and has a couple of closely related terms, including assimilation and amalgamation. Although all three of these words refer to changes due to contact between different cultures, there are notable differences between them. Acculturation is often tied to political conquest or expansion, and is applied to the process of change in beliefs or traditional practices that occurs when the cultural system of one group displaces that of another. Assimilation refers to the process through which individuals and groups of differing heritages acquire the basic habits, attitudes, and mode of life of an embracing culture. Amalgamation refers to a blending of cultures, rather than one group eliminating another (acculturation) or one group mixing itself into another (assimilation).

 

[Huckleberry 32,861]

29 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

 

It's less about migration and more about where Trump has made gains in polling - a major driver of that is people of color. Most of the larger, noncompetitive states on both sides are significantly less white than the nation as a whole - CA, TX, FL, NY, IL, NJ, etc. It's plausible, perhaps even the base case if you lean into polling, that Trump could see a boost in the national popular vote but see his relative EC advantage eroded because Harris has held up better among whites - WI, MI, PA, and NE-2 are the first path to 270 and all notably whiter than the nation overall.

Side note, I think New Mexico could use more polling because of this. It hasn't been polled in a month. Harris has held a decent lead in the polls that do exist so I'm not saying it's going to flip or anything but it would be nice to get a poll or two to see where it stands now.

That's my whole point. Those polling results may very well be garbage. 

[bluto 4,929]

FYI that Marist poll had Harris +5 natl… but Trump winning independents by 10. Make sense of that 

[Js1 85,338]

1 minute ago, bluto said:

FYI that Marist poll had Harris +5 natl… but Trump winning independents by 10. Make sense of that 

Don’t make no sense 

[gmr548 16,580]

18 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

@Pancho and @Thatguy would like a word with you, and they demand to see your math. 

 

4 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

With Latinos, hmmmm yes. With Blacks?

I mean, it's there in the polling. My point was to illustrate how you'd see Trump perform better in the national popular vote without an EC victory. We'll see if it pans out in a few weeks. I tend to agree Harris won't lose too much of the black vote, maybe a few percentage points relative to Biden due to churn in the electorate and the peeling off of younger men, but that's not really racially specific.

[Pancho 44,804]

 

[TexEx15 17,530]

18 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Good closing argument….

 

Trump’s closing message to a number of different groups increasingly includes this harsh line: Members of the group not voting for him need to have their “head examined.”

“Any African American or Hispanic that votes for Kamala … you got to have your head examined,” Trump said during an Atlanta rally Tuesday night. “They are screwing you.”

It’s part of an ongoing trend of the former president telling specific demographic groups they deserve of ridicule or have something wrong with their mental state if they’re not voting for him, one that has picked up in a recent weeks.

 

 

Edited October 16 by TexEx15

[Macanudo 12,979]

STOP POSTING NATIONAL POLL DATA!!!!!!!!

[texasdago 7,573]

52 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That is 100% a Trump talking point

OK... so I asked more about it and am working on countering his arguments... he's an attorney if that provides any perspective or maybe it doesn't mean anything because what does these days with Trump supporters?

I asked why she presented a threat to civilization...

"The lawfare that has been practiced by the current administration against Trump (and even against Musk by CA regulators) is the biggest threat to the rule of law not Trump.  Show me the man and I'll find you the crime.  There is a far bigger threat to the rule of law state than Mr. Trump."

So I responded back with consequences of his actions, history of being crooked, skirting rules, breaking laws, grifter, blah blah blah, etc.  I mentioned Musk is not on the ballot.  I also referenced Mark Milley, Mattis, most of his cabinet, etc. coming out against him.

Response

"So you are telling me that you don't think suspending the statute of limitations in NY state for a year so that a lady could file a claim against Trump from 1975 over a Bergdorff Goodman alleged rape that she told no one about and didn't report to the police before having the SOL revert back to its normal 10-year period is not something out of the KGB playbook.  Show me the man and I'll find you the crime.  The legislature in that instance particularly enacted this legislation to get Trump."

Can't speak to the background on the E. Jean Carroll case but why are we talking about a state court case here?  

AND he then said I was being influenced by TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome)

F me... 

Anyway, I dug up our WhatsApp conversation from January 10, 2021 where he admitted I was right about him the whole time.   Screenshot and sent to him.  I told you... you eventually saw through him, you can still see through him.  Best I can do is throw his words back in his face.

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1,291]

12 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

Could you explain how (and when) these broken, proudly ignorant, hate-filled  bigots will have an epiphany and get un-fucked up and un-lost?

“Yeah, so you want to send the military against political opponents of your candidate and revoke the FCC license of any news that questions him? Interesting.  Man, the Horns look good this year. “

 I launch those old friends and tell them why.  

Friends are easy enough to change. It's the coworkers and family that I struggle with. Like my mom would just look me in the face and say that Trump doesn't really mean that and he was just taken out of context and that I watch too much CNN (I watch zero CNN).

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Marist has been all over the map. 

Harris winning 52-47 (0.5 points better than Biden) but they also have Trump doing:

• 2 points better in Texas
• 2 points worse in Ohio
• 1.5 points better in Florida
• 1.5 points better in Arizona
• 1.5 points better in Georgia
• 1.5 points worse in North Carolina
• 2 points better in Pennsylvania
• 0.5 points worse in Wisconsin
• 2.5 points worse in Michigan

Granted, some of those are almost a month old, but there we go again - national polls show her doing as well (or better) than Biden, but somehow worse in almost every swing state

National polls tend to be more accurate. 

[Brisketexan 105,142]

9 minutes ago, bluto said:

FYI that Marist poll had Harris +5 natl… but Trump winning independents by 10. Make sense of that 

Sure.  There are no "independents."  There are people voting Democratic.  There are people voting MAGA.  And then there are people who are voting MAGA, but know that their choice is disgusting and socially unacceptable, so they call themselves "independents."

[Js1 85,338]

3 minutes ago, texasdago said:

The lawfare that has been practiced by the current administration against Trump (and even against Musk by CA regulators) is the biggest threat to the rule of law not Trump. 

[Upgrayedd 5,812]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Scrolling up thru this thread makes it seem that was Dago’s take and I’m going WTF?  

[SydneyCarton 48,106]

5 minutes ago, texasdago said:

OK... so I asked more about it and am working on countering his arguments... he's an attorney if that provides any perspective or maybe it doesn't mean anything because what does these days with Trump supporters?

I asked why she presented a threat to civilization...

"The lawfare that has been practiced by the current administration against Trump (and even against Musk by CA regulators) is the biggest threat to the rule of law not Trump.  Show me the man and I'll find you the crime.  There is a far bigger threat to the rule of law state than Mr. Trump."

So I responded back with consequences of his actions, history of being crooked, skirting rules, breaking laws, grifter, blah blah blah, etc.  I mentioned Musk is not on the ballot.  I also referenced Mark Milley, Mattis, most of his cabinet, etc. coming out against him.

Response

"So you are telling me that you don't think suspending the statute of limitations in NY state for a year so that a lady could file a claim against Trump from 1975 over a Bergdorff Goodman alleged rape that she told no one about and didn't report to the police before having the SOL revert back to its normal 10-year period is not something out of the KGB playbook.  Show me the man and I'll find you the crime.  The legislature in that instance particularly enacted this legislation to get Trump."

Can't speak to the background on the E. Jean Carroll case but why are we talking about a state court case here?  

AND he then said I was being influenced by TDS (Trump Derangement Syndrome)

F me... 

Anyway, I dug up our WhatsApp conversation from January 10, 2021 where he admitted I was right about him the whole time.   Screenshot and sent to him.  I told you... you eventually saw through him, you can still see through him.  Best I can do is throw his words back in his face.

What a fucking boatload of malarky...I don't even know where to start. A man talking about the rule of law in favor of a guy who gassed peaceful protestors for a photo-op...a man talking the rule of law for someone who has said he'll suspend the laws to be a dictator on day one. A man talking about the rule of law who sent a mob at the capital when an election didn't go his way. A man who demonstably attempted to send fake electors. A twice impeached president with audio of a phone call demanding the GA secretary of state to find him 11k votes. The rule of law for a man who said legal citizens aren't legal citizens becuase they are also immigrants. The rule of law for a man who is endorsed by project 2025. The rule of law for a man who didn't approve FEMA payments for a state that didn't bend the knee. 

I don't even know where to start. 

[chainsaw 9,869]

5 minutes ago, texasdago said:

suspending the statute of limitations in NY state for a year

Wait a minute. How is state-level legislation now "lawfare" vs "the will of the people" in this instance?

https://www.governor.ny.gov/news/governor-hochul-signs-adult-survivors-act

This was a legislative fix that at least 2,999 others needed.

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/11/27/nyregion/adult-survivors-act-lawsuits.html

If he thinks that's just part of some vast conspiracy, he needs his head examined.