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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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54 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Like half the line at SPJ Lodge in the Heights were former English teachers for some reason, so you’d all fit in perfectly. 

I drove by this AM just to check it out. Seemed managable. My plan is to go tomorrow during lunch. 

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Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I can use my cell phone while voting, right? I forget the rules But I have a list of judges and whatnot, and wouldn't mind a crib sheet. 

You can bring notes on paper. You cannot use your phone within 100 feet of the door or inside 

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1 minute ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

But you can bring a gun in right since it’s Texas and that’s what is most important. 

Unless that’s changed….

The legislation allowing open carry of handguns, does NOT change the law as it pertains to guns in the polling place; thus no one except licensed peace officers may carry handguns into the polling place.

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5 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

So, I’m having a Monday morning mental setback about this race.

please reassure me that the Trump will not win this election…..

He is struggling to make it to events and interviews. He is struggling to put on his makeup and has nobody around him willing to tell him his makeup is bad, he is struggling to put together a string of sentences that makes sense at his rallies, he keeps getting lost in his own mind in public. Leon Musk is blowing tens of millions of dollars on people who pretend to knock on doors for Trump.  Trump is still thinking about the dick of a dude that’s been dead for almost a decade. He keeps veering into racist territory.

For moderates/independents these are all more data points in him being weird as fuck, and every week Trump tries to outdo himself.

He lost bigly in 2020 and he’s far more batshit these days, giving people who voted against him even more of a reason to turn out. Don’t sweat it,

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https://www.votetexas.gov/voting/allowed-at-the-polling-place.html

No phones or other wireless communication devices within 100 feet of voting locations (100 ft is the distance marker, where political signs abruptly end)

No firearms unless you are a peace officer

No clothing advocating for or against a candidate, measure, or political party.

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17 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I can use my cell phone while voting, right? I forget the rules But I have a list of judges and whatnot, and wouldn't mind a crib sheet. 

Just bring your Dominion-issued USB.

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Wife gave me a hard time today because she found out that a few days ago me and the three year old grandson were doing chart art on the sidewalk in front of his house.  The next door neighbor had a Trump/Cruz sign up.

I drew a really bad fox with four weird legs saying "Boo Trump, Boo Vance".  The grandkid drew some stars. 

Gonna do some poll greeting today for Sam Eppler, who I believe has a 3% chance of beating Beth Van Duyne.

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1 minute ago, wild_turkey said:

I’ve been a little bit tuned out the past few weeks so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but I see PredictIt is now giving a moderate edge to Trump. What changed? Is that even a metric worth acknowledging?

GOP polling spam skewing the averages and foreign money dropping millions on Trump in the betting markets. So no it’s not worth following 

Just now, South Austin said:

Or unless there was some phone sex going on.

So 4 minutes and then 36 minutes of pillow talk? 

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15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Unless that’s changed….

The legislation allowing open carry of handguns, does NOT change the law as it pertains to guns in the polling place; thus no one except licensed peace officers may carry handguns into the polling place.

But, since I'm a sovereign citizen, that don't apply to me, right? I'll be sporting my Thor Shield (R) Energy Device Protection, just in case they try to InFRinGE!1!!1 /GQP

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22 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

So, I’m having a Monday morning mental setback about this race.

please reassure me that the Trump will not win this election…..

I’ve been in a bit of a funk since @Bozo_Casanova posted that Nate Silver piece (really just that one Ruy Teixeira link from 2022 that talks about how the Dem party isn‘t able to talk to the working class because I know it’s true), but here’s mine.

Forget the candidates, let’s just talk campaigns and the electorate.  The HUGE money advantage held by the Harris campaign and the fact it’s being run by folks who are still traumatized by 2016 makes me believe they are taking nothing for granted.  Plouffe was on with Dan Pfeiffer on PSA (so the wonkiest of the boys with one of the Harris dominant strategists) and Plouffe admitted internals were much tighter than the public polls.  

If we take that as true, which campaign is in a position to maximize that?  The Harris campaign may not have a simple, digestible message.  It might be swimming against economic tides. But, one of those fundamentals of politics is that it is SO powerful to have an actual human, a campaign representative, ask for your vote.  The Harris campaign has the money and the logistical support to make that ask.  
 

The other part I come back to is that Trump has done absolutely nothing in the last four years to sell himself outside of his MAGA core of support.  If he’s picking someone up it’s not because they like the candidate, it’s a protest vote, and I’m hopeful that that sense of dissatisfaction is getting picked up by the polls, but it’s not the same thing as casting the vote.  Voters have had their opportunity to vent, so to speak, and some of those Trump voters will now be okay with voting for Harris.  

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27 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Unless that’s changed….

The legislation allowing open carry of handguns, does NOT change the law as it pertains to guns in the polling place; thus no one except licensed peace officers may carry handguns into the polling place.

But how are you expected to defend yourself against all of the illegals that are flooding the voting booths in between murders?

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19 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

I’ve been a little bit tuned out the past few weeks so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but I see PredictIt is now giving a moderate edge to Trump. What changed? Is that even a metric worth acknowledging?

No. Some billionaires placed some big bets to move the line, that's all that is.

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9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

But how are you expected to defend yourself against all of the illegals that are flooding the voting booths in between murders?

Wait, I thought the illegal immigrants were busy forcing sex change operations on our children in the military.  That’s what Ted Cruz said.

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1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I know favorability isn't necessarily a perfect indicator, but are there many instances of someone winning who is this far underwater in comparison to their opponent?

 

 

It is always a little funny to me when ~20% of those polled are like, "Who the fuck are Tim Walz and JD Vance?"

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3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I know favorability isn't necessarily a perfect indicator, but are there many instances of someone winning who is this far underwater in comparison to their opponent?

 

 

No.  Which is why the polls are bullshit.

He only managed to eek out a win against Hillary, who was just as underwater as he was in 2016.

51-46 for Harris is almost in line with what I think her PV total will be. 

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Enten is usually a big doomer too (hence why he's on CNN, because they love that shit)

If Harris loses a small amount of black/Hispanic support, but offsets it why winning back some WWC voters, this is a big reason why Dems overperformed the polling in 2022 in the rust belt, compared to the Sun Belt, and probably why she's favored in MI/PA/WI

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2 minutes ago, safe sex said:

Voted! I've never voted on the first day of early voting before, but I wanted to get voting against the orange piece of shit for the third time over with so I can just spend the rest of the time until the election sweating 

Same.  I dream of the day that my vote in NW Travis county will matter in any fucking election at all, but as long as I'm herded into a house district with nimrods from Madisonville, Columbus and Sealy (seriously, WTF), I guess I'll keep yelling at clouds.

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31 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

https://www.votetexas.gov/voting/allowed-at-the-polling-place.html

No phones or other wireless communication devices within 100 feet of voting locations (100 ft is the distance marker, where political signs abruptly end)

No firearms unless you are a peace officer

No clothing advocating for or against a candidate, measure, or political party.

Thanks.  Does wearing my t-shirt that has a picture of a naked Arnold Palmer count as advocating for Trump?  

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24 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

I’ve been a little bit tuned out the past few weeks so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but I see PredictIt is now giving a moderate edge to Trump. What changed? Is that even a metric worth acknowledging?

This is one where I think the data is definitely off.

Posited:

1) people tend to gamble for the result they want to happen.

2) males gamble on predictit more than females.

3) this year will see uniquely high gender polarization.

= predictit saying Trump will win handily.

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26 minutes ago, Js1 said:

GOP polling spam skewing the averages and foreign money dropping millions on Trump in the betting markets. So no it’s not worth following 

So 4 minutes and then 36 minutes of pillow talk? 

4 minutes?  Take it easy there, Arnold Palmer. 

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3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Js1's job on Surly from now until election day: 

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I am doing my best, but I am also moving to Denver on Saturday, so I will do my best to talk everyone off the ledge in between killing myself (fucking hate packing/unpacking) or on the road.

Edited by Js1
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I voted first thing this morning.  Pretty good line, but I got there during a brief lull and was in-and-out in less than 15 minutes.  The "voted" stickers are swanky this year.

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