2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[hookemATL 11736]

1 minute ago, TeeDubya said:

It’s not diamonds per se, it’s the QUANTITY of diamonds needed….   

“How does the ass take the carat?”

[TeeDubya 3362]

So, I’m having a Monday morning mental setback about this race.

please reassure me that the Trump will not win this election…..

[hookem2010 2624]

I'm just not entertaining those thoughts anymore, regardless of probability, until election day.

[Firemans4Horn 18050]

 

Dallas voter guide

[Js1 85338]

6 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

So, I’m having a Monday morning mental setback about this race.

please reassure me that the Trump will not win this election…..

Surly got you (except Brisket)

[SydneyCarton 48106]

54 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Like half the line at SPJ Lodge in the Heights were former English teachers for some reason, so you’d all fit in perfectly. 

I drove by this AM just to check it out. Seemed managable. My plan is to go tomorrow during lunch. 

[SydneyCarton 48106]

I can use my cell phone while voting, right? I forget the rules But I have a list of judges and whatnot, and wouldn't mind a crib sheet. 

[Js1 85338]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

I can use my cell phone while voting, right? I forget the rules But I have a list of judges and whatnot, and wouldn't mind a crib sheet. 

You can bring notes on paper. You cannot use your phone within 100 feet of the door or inside 

[Firemans4Horn 18050]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I can use my cell phone while voting, right?

No

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

Drove by two houses in my hood that suddenly had Trump and Cruz signs this morning.  I can’t tell you how pissed it makes me.  One had a third sign that looked just like a political sign saying something like “Jesus in 2024 is all we need”.  

[South Austin 52509]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I can use my cell phone while voting, right? I forget the rules But I have a list of judges and whatnot, and wouldn't mind a crib sheet. 

No cell phones, but you can accompany up to one illegal immigrant to instruct them how to vote.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You can bring notes on paper. You cannot use your phone within 100 feet of the door or inside 

But you can bring a gun in right since it’s Texas and that’s what is most important. 

[Pato del Muerto 52499]

Shall not be infringed

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

Soros money hit the bank account this morning, planning to vote every day at lunch this week.

[Js1 85338]

1 minute ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

But you can bring a gun in right since it’s Texas and that’s what is most important. 

Unless that’s changed….

The legislation allowing open carry of handguns, does NOT change the law as it pertains to guns in the polling place; thus no one except licensed peace officers may carry handguns into the polling place.

[atomheartbevo 89672]

5 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

So, I’m having a Monday morning mental setback about this race.

please reassure me that the Trump will not win this election…..

He is struggling to make it to events and interviews. He is struggling to put on his makeup and has nobody around him willing to tell him his makeup is bad, he is struggling to put together a string of sentences that makes sense at his rallies, he keeps getting lost in his own mind in public. Leon Musk is blowing tens of millions of dollars on people who pretend to knock on doors for Trump.  Trump is still thinking about the dick of a dude that’s been dead for almost a decade. He keeps veering into racist territory.

For moderates/independents these are all more data points in him being weird as fuck, and every week Trump tries to outdo himself.

He lost bigly in 2020 and he’s far more batshit these days, giving people who voted against him even more of a reason to turn out. Don’t sweat it,

[NAVY 6740]

Voted. East Austin short wait 

[atomheartbevo 89672]

Kirk Watson has robocallers with New Mexico phone numbers.

[Texas Jeff 1945]

https://www.votetexas.gov/voting/allowed-at-the-polling-place.html

No phones or other wireless communication devices within 100 feet of voting locations (100 ft is the distance marker, where political signs abruptly end)

No firearms unless you are a peace officer

No clothing advocating for or against a candidate, measure, or political party.

[aggie08 21504]

17 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I can use my cell phone while voting, right? I forget the rules But I have a list of judges and whatnot, and wouldn't mind a crib sheet. 

Just bring your Dominion-issued USB.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

My wife phonebanked for GA yesterday.  Talked with three folks.  One was a "the system is fucked, I'm not voting" millennial.  After a 40 minute conversation, he said "I still don't know if I'll end up voting, but if I do it'll be for Kamala and it'll be because of this call."

[The Original Greaser Bob 2834]

Wife gave me a hard time today because she found out that a few days ago me and the three year old grandson were doing chart art on the sidewalk in front of his house.  The next door neighbor had a Trump/Cruz sign up.

I drew a really bad fox with four weird legs saying "Boo Trump, Boo Vance".  The grandkid drew some stars. 

Gonna do some poll greeting today for Sam Eppler, who I believe has a 3% chance of beating Beth Van Duyne.

[berlinerbaer 678]

Just got back from doing my part. Fuck Trump!

[Js1 85338]

5 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

My wife phonebanked for GA yesterday.  Talked with three folks.  One was a "the system is fucked, I'm not voting" millennial.  After a 40 minute conversation, he said "I still don't know if I'll end up voting, but if I do it'll be for Kamala and it'll be because of this call."

She’s my hero 

No millennial sits on the phone for 40 min with a stranger unless they’re open to their mind being changed 

Edited October 21 by Js1

[berlinerbaer 678]

12 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

 

He lost bigly in 2020 

Bruh

[wild_turkey 3159]

I’ve been a little bit tuned out the past few weeks so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but I see PredictIt is now giving a moderate edge to Trump. What changed? Is that even a metric worth acknowledging?

[South Austin 52509]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

She’s my hero 

No millennial sits on the phone for 40 min with a stranger unless they’re open to their mind being changed 

Or unless there was some phone sex going on.

[Js1 85338]

1 minute ago, wild_turkey said:

I’ve been a little bit tuned out the past few weeks so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but I see PredictIt is now giving a moderate edge to Trump. What changed? Is that even a metric worth acknowledging?

GOP polling spam skewing the averages and foreign money dropping millions on Trump in the betting markets. So no it’s not worth following 

Just now, South Austin said:

Or unless there was some phone sex going on.

So 4 minutes and then 36 minutes of pillow talk? 

[Gap03 3308]

15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Unless that’s changed….

The legislation allowing open carry of handguns, does NOT change the law as it pertains to guns in the polling place; thus no one except licensed peace officers may carry handguns into the polling place.

But, since I'm a sovereign citizen, that don't apply to me, right? I'll be sporting my Thor Shield (R) Energy Device Protection, just in case they try to InFRinGE!1!!1 /GQP

[Fudge Nuggets 19190]

27 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

No

I did.  But I'm a middle-aged white dude in an affluent neighborhood so they probably let me slide on principle.

[LCHorn 2620]

22 minutes ago, TeeDubya said:

So, I’m having a Monday morning mental setback about this race.

please reassure me that the Trump will not win this election…..

I’ve been in a bit of a funk since @Bozo_Casanova posted that Nate Silver piece (really just that one Ruy Teixeira link from 2022 that talks about how the Dem party isn‘t able to talk to the working class because I know it’s true), but here’s mine.

Forget the candidates, let’s just talk campaigns and the electorate.  The HUGE money advantage held by the Harris campaign and the fact it’s being run by folks who are still traumatized by 2016 makes me believe they are taking nothing for granted.  Plouffe was on with Dan Pfeiffer on PSA (so the wonkiest of the boys with one of the Harris dominant strategists) and Plouffe admitted internals were much tighter than the public polls.  

If we take that as true, which campaign is in a position to maximize that?  The Harris campaign may not have a simple, digestible message.  It might be swimming against economic tides. But, one of those fundamentals of politics is that it is SO powerful to have an actual human, a campaign representative, ask for your vote.  The Harris campaign has the money and the logistical support to make that ask.  
 

The other part I come back to is that Trump has done absolutely nothing in the last four years to sell himself outside of his MAGA core of support.  If he’s picking someone up it’s not because they like the candidate, it’s a protest vote, and I’m hopeful that that sense of dissatisfaction is getting picked up by the polls, but it’s not the same thing as casting the vote.  Voters have had their opportunity to vent, so to speak, and some of those Trump voters will now be okay with voting for Harris.  

[Pato del Muerto 52499]

27 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Unless that’s changed….

The legislation allowing open carry of handguns, does NOT change the law as it pertains to guns in the polling place; thus no one except licensed peace officers may carry handguns into the polling place.

But how are you expected to defend yourself against all of the illegals that are flooding the voting booths in between murders?

[BrickHorn 18236]

5 minutes ago, Gap03 said:

But, since I'm a sovereign citizen, that don't apply to me, right?

That depends. Check for maritime law fringes on any flags flying on the polling location. 

[TeeDubya 3362]

1 minute ago, Pato del Muerto said:

But how are you expected to defend yourself against all of the illegals that are flooding the voting booths in between murders?

This is the perfect CR reply.

[safe sex 11731]

Voted! I've never voted on the first day of early voting before, but I wanted to get voting against the orange piece of shit for the third time over with so I can just spend the rest of the time until the election sweating 

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

I know favorability isn't necessarily a perfect indicator, but are there many instances of someone winning who is this far underwater in comparison to their opponent?

 

 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

1 hour ago, hookemATL said:

“How does the ass take the carat?”

[wildcat09 29354]

19 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

I’ve been a little bit tuned out the past few weeks so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but I see PredictIt is now giving a moderate edge to Trump. What changed? Is that even a metric worth acknowledging?

No. Some billionaires placed some big bets to move the line, that's all that is.

[atomheartbevo 89672]

9 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

But how are you expected to defend yourself against all of the illegals that are flooding the voting booths in between murders?

Wait, I thought the illegal immigrants were busy forcing sex change operations on our children in the military.  That’s what Ted Cruz said.

[aggie08 21504]

1 minute ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I know favorability isn't necessarily a perfect indicator, but are there many instances of someone winning who is this far underwater in comparison to their opponent?

 

 

It is always a little funny to me when ~20% of those polled are like, "Who the fuck are Tim Walz and JD Vance?"

[Js1 85338]

3 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I know favorability isn't necessarily a perfect indicator, but are there many instances of someone winning who is this far underwater in comparison to their opponent?

 

 

No.  Which is why the polls are bullshit.

He only managed to eek out a win against Hillary, who was just as underwater as he was in 2016.

51-46 for Harris is almost in line with what I think her PV total will be. 

[Js1 85338]

 

Enten is usually a big doomer too (hence why he's on CNN, because they love that shit)

If Harris loses a small amount of black/Hispanic support, but offsets it why winning back some WWC voters, this is a big reason why Dems overperformed the polling in 2022 in the rust belt, compared to the Sun Belt, and probably why she's favored in MI/PA/WI

[mdmost 43001]

5 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I know favorability isn't necessarily a perfect indicator, but are there many instances of someone winning who is this far underwater in comparison to their opponent?

 

 

Yeah I hate Vance and Trump but my grocery bills are too high and Trump is a businessman. Now excuse me while I go out to eat and will drop the equivalent of one week's cost of groceries on a single meal. 

[Gap03 3308]

2 minutes ago, safe sex said:

Voted! I've never voted on the first day of early voting before, but I wanted to get voting against the orange piece of shit for the third time over with so I can just spend the rest of the time until the election sweating 

Same.  I dream of the day that my vote in NW Travis county will matter in any fucking election at all, but as long as I'm herded into a house district with nimrods from Madisonville, Columbus and Sealy (seriously, WTF), I guess I'll keep yelling at clouds.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

31 minutes ago, Texas Jeff said:

https://www.votetexas.gov/voting/allowed-at-the-polling-place.html

No phones or other wireless communication devices within 100 feet of voting locations (100 ft is the distance marker, where political signs abruptly end)

No firearms unless you are a peace officer

No clothing advocating for or against a candidate, measure, or political party.

Thanks.  Does wearing my t-shirt that has a picture of a naked Arnold Palmer count as advocating for Trump?  

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

24 minutes ago, wild_turkey said:

I’ve been a little bit tuned out the past few weeks so forgive me if this is a dumb question, but I see PredictIt is now giving a moderate edge to Trump. What changed? Is that even a metric worth acknowledging?

This is one where I think the data is definitely off.

Posited:

1) people tend to gamble for the result they want to happen.

2) males gamble on predictit more than females.

3) this year will see uniquely high gender polarization.

= predictit saying Trump will win handily.

[Bateshorn 9927]

26 minutes ago, Js1 said:

GOP polling spam skewing the averages and foreign money dropping millions on Trump in the betting markets. So no it’s not worth following 

So 4 minutes and then 36 minutes of pillow talk? 

4 minutes?  Take it easy there, Arnold Palmer. 

[aggie08 21504]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Enten is usually a big doomer too (hence why he's on CNN, because they love that shit)

If Harris loses a small amount of black/Hispanic support, but offsets it why winning back some WWC voters, this is a big reason why Dems overperformed the polling in 2022 in the rust belt, compared to the Sun Belt, and probably why she's favored in MI/PA/WI

Js1's job on Surly from now until election day: 

[wildcat09 29354]

For those of you worrying, if you notice the polls haven't really changed at all for the swing states in the past month. For real polls of different samples with margins of error built in that aren't weighted, that wouldn't happen. You'd see some swings back and forth. They're weighting the polls because they're terrified of missing Trump voters like they did in 2016 and 2020. We have no idea how much they're weighting, but I bet it's pretty substantial. Everyone just thinks it should be about a coinflip race so the pollsters tweak R share of the electorate, predicted turnout in Philly, etc. to get a poll that's almost 50/50. But they've been missing to the right in every race and ballot measure since Dobbs and this new weighting only compounds that error. 

Does anyone seriously think Trump has any real advantages or has done anything in the last month to help himself? He's way underwater in approval and his VP is even worse. They're trailing in enthusiasm. His campaign has no fucking money or GOTV. Trump is falling apart on the campaign trail.  Even their "advantage" with billionaire donors trying to make up for his campaign's cash and GOTV deficiencies is an incompetent clownshow operation that's easy to ratfuck by having Dems sign Elon's petition, etc. They're literally not doing anything right. The open fascism is a desperate attempt to re-energize their base, but it's not working because Trump doesn't have the juice any more and that shit turns off more voters than it brings in.

Vote and make sure your friends who aren't Republicans vote and we'll beat these fucking losers, just like they did earlier this year in France and the UK. We can't let the fucking French be better at antifascism than us.

Edited October 21 by wildcat09

[Js1 85338]

3 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Js1's job on Surly from now until election day: 

I am doing my best, but I am also moving to Denver on Saturday, so I will do my best to talk everyone off the ledge in between killing myself (fucking hate packing/unpacking) or on the road.

Edited October 21 by Js1