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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Huckleberry

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1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Yeah, this has been extremely weird. Trump scaled his appearances way back, and then Vance has been off the radar.

But if you think about it that's the first thing they've done in months that makes it look like they're trying to win. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29189

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With regard to the presidential election, there are no undecided voters in the United States at this moment. Not a one. There are voters who will cast a ballot for the diametrical opposites of Trump or Harris and a handful who will waste their vote on a third-party pout. And then there are a mass of people who despite all the evidence available that American democracy itself is at stake, don't care enough to show up and do the job of citizens. That's it. I'm not calling any voter at this point undecided. That's too nice a word for indifference and ignorance; it wrongly implies ongoing engagement and thought.

 

Edited by henrygandorf
rest of text.
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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31438

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Harris County has such boring stickers.

So par for the course for Houston - boring and sterile. 

Dallas.  But yeah.  Voted at Hamilton Park UMC, so a bit of extra flava from the nice aunties and grandmamas.

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Js1

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11 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Click on our link and find out more!

 

Utterly annoying that everyone is just taking these shitty right wing poll as gospel.  It's just....

It's so dumb.  Garbage in, garbage out. 

Race to the WH has suspended their model because they don't feel they can provide an objective model when 70% of polls right now are right wing spam. 

The problem is 538/Silver/Economist don't want to be called biased by removing all of these crap polls. 

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David Dennison

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7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Utterly annoying that everyone is just taking these shitty right wing poll as gospel.  It's just....

It's so dumb.  Garbage in, garbage out. 

Race to the WH has suspended their model because they don't feel they can provide an objective model when 70% of polls right now are right wing spam. 

The problem is 538/Silver/Economist don't want to be called biased by removing all of these crap polls. 

I posted that just for you.

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Thatguy

Thatguy 8678

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1 hour ago, hookemATL said:

As a delegate of the HCC (Honky Cracker Coalition), can you please 1) describe this term and 2) notate if this term is to be used only by the black community?

Coonin has a couple meanings in the black community. It means a step and fetch type of reinforcement of black stereotypes, but usually done over the top. There is a spectrum. We would call Clarence Thomas one. However, the purest form of the word is its original intention and fits Antonio Brown to a tee. Him being up there calling white folks crackers for no reason is coonin. Read below. BTW, coon is the worst thing a black person could call another black person. If you hear that word exchanged between black folks in a confrontation clear the area. Lol.

https://jimcrowmuseum.ferris.edu/coon/homepage.htm

 

Listen to Willie D

 

 

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henrygandorf

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4 hours ago, aggie08 said:

I don't know. I don't think the election is a "lock", but I think there's decent cause for optimism. I think the Midwest and PA is pretty safely in the Harris camp. Win those, and she basically only needs one of Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, or North Carolina.

it's been stated but bears repeating. the electoral college is fucking stupid, but the electoral math works out nicely for the good guys this time around.

as js and others have said, michigan + wisconsin + pennsylvania (along with the expecteds) gets us right to 270. that's without arizona, georgia, nevada, north carolina, or any other "hope" states.

would it be nice to win nc? of course. would keeping it competitive in ohio, florida, and texas be a harbinger of good things to come? obviously. but don't get it twisted - the rust belt is everything. that's why kamala has been hammering mi/wi/pa. trump, along with stops in ca, ny, and il, is now in north carolina. nc is important - to him. if he loses there, it's pretty much done. but that list of states, while nice to have, don't add up the way the rust belt does.

get mi/wi/pa and it's all over but the crying. vote like your ability to say "fuck your feelings" to the deplorables depends on it, because it absolutely does.

 

image.thumb.png.c3c743c4faadbbb19a6280833c19b7ee.png

 

https://www.270towin.com/

 

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Goredho

Goredho 17394

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2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

This is one where I think the data is definitely off.

Posited:

1) people tend to gamble for the result they want to happen.

2) males gamble on predictit more than females.

3) this year will see uniquely high gender polarization.

= predictit saying Trump will win handily.

All the gamblers I know, and I know a lot, skew hard right.  It’s illegal most places, so gamblers are inherently libertarian.  You can’t use a pool of gamblers to predict an election.  It’s classic sample bias.

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Js1

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1 minute ago, Firemans4Horn said:


what the fuck is this supposed to mean? 

Dems are turning out their voters now (or getting mail returns from) who are more likely to vote/typically vote, which means they have to do more work to get their low propensity voters to show up later, while GOP is turning out low propensity voters/don't usually vote now, which means they have less work to do later to turn out their high propensity voters.

But that data seems weird.  No one else is tracking that kind of data that I know of. 

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Pancho

Pancho 44705

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7 minutes ago, Thatguy said:

What is this dude talking about...lol

The Girdusky dude is an oddball. He’s on Abby’s show on CNN a lot. I think he was once a Kerry voter, but all he does is whine about “what about this!” And never really makes a point. I think js explained it well as to what he was talking about. It’s the first time I’ve seen something like that be used as a positive talking point, but Rs are looking for anything right now. 

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henrygandorf

henrygandorf 29189

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1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Dems are turning out their voters now (or getting mail returns from) who are more likely to vote/typically vote, which means they have to do more work to get their low propensity voters to show up later, while GOP is turning out low propensity voters/don't usually vote now, which means they have less work to do later to turn out their high propensity voters.

But that data seems weird.  No one else is tracking that kind of data that I know of. 

assuming dems have a better ground game, or at least a bigger budget to support one, this shouldn't matter at all. whereas if you had limited funds (which the gop seems to), then it would make more sense for them to throw resources at lower-propensity voters, so maybe somebody with a brain is in charge there.

i don't think anyone expects dems to just go after likely dem voters and disregard everybody else.

another interesting thing i heard (anecdotally, of course), is about former nevada residents who moved to ca during/since covid because of all the layoffs. most are still registered in nv, and all of them are voting kamala. i wonder how hard it is to poll nv because of all the displaced residents.

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Js1

Js1 85275

Posted
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1 minute ago, henrygandorf said:

assuming dems have a better ground game, or at least a bigger budget to support one, this shouldn't matter at all. whereas if you had limited funds (which the gop seems to), then it would make more sense for them to throw resources at lower-propensity voters, so maybe somebody with a brain is in charge there.

i don't think anyone expects dems to just go after likely dem voters and disregard everybody else.

another interesting thing i heard (anecdotally, of course), is about former nevada residents who moved to ca during/since covid because of all the layoffs. most are still registered in nv, and all of them are voting kamala. i wonder how hard it is to poll nv because of all the displaced residents.

Dems have the better ground game - the Culinary Union does the heavy lifting. 

The think is - Nevada is just weird.   The largest population center in the state (Vegas) that decides the whole thing is full of people who work overnight shifts and odd hours. And everyone gets a ballot in the mail.  

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Firemans4Horn

Firemans4Horn 18034

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19 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Dems are turning out their voters now (or getting mail returns from) who are more likely to vote/typically vote, which means they have to do more work to get their low propensity voters to show up later, while GOP is turning out low propensity voters/don't usually vote now, which means they have less work to do later to turn out their high propensity voters.

But that data seems weird.  No one else is tracking that kind of data that I know of. 


 

 

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