2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Js1 85337]

12 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Gen Z is built different. Her big sister was told explicitly to stay out of it. I said “your sister is in big trouble and I need you to stay out of it. She destroyed the Trump sign in front of that house around the corner,” and her sister goes “well she couldn’t just burn it down.”

 

*her

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

FYI regarding gender breakdown of electorate historically. 
 

https://infogram.com/number-turnout-presidential-years-fig-2-1hmr6g7730lyo6n

 

2020 was 53.1% female.  So that 55.2 is a good number. 

It's because they're all showing up for Donald Trump, the protector of woman.  I mean, JD Vance wouldn't just go on TV and tell you that women don't care about abortion.  That would just be stupid. 

['stache 21815]

[Hmbre97 6308]

 

[SydneyCarton 48106]

43 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

 

Per @Helobious who brought up a good point about turn out and Republican early voting this time around skewing the numbers higher, this does not at all appear to be the case. Between the 79.1% retention and the 15.6% of new, that would leave only a differential margin of 5.3%.  

 

 

36 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

So early signs look bad for Nevada, good for PA, and possibly promising for GA? Or am I misreading things?

And I'm guessing if one state is to look bad, Nevada would be the ideal choice (outside of # EVs) because it's probably least indicative of how other swing states are going?

I mean, Nevada could be indicative of Arizona as well. 

24 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

I don't think there is any real information on Nevada. 

I mean, outside of Ralson, hasn't the culinary union sounded some alarm as well?

[South Austin 52505]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:I mean, outside of Ralson, hasn't the culinary union sounded some alarm as well?

I mean, outside of Ralson, hasn't the culinary union sounded some alarm as well?

For what it's worth, I've heard a couple reports on NPR (libs!!!) that the culinary union is all in for Harris.

[SydneyCarton 48106]

2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

For what it's worth, I've heard a couple reports on NPR (libs!!!) that the culinary union is all in for Harris.

Oh, they are. They're all in for Harris, and they're knocking the doors. I was referring to hadnly the folks doing the work in/for the Culinary Union have remarked a lack of enthusiasm for Harris kind of a thing. 

https://thenevadaglobe.com/articles/culinary-union-warns-nevada-could-go-red/

https://www.npr.org/2024/10/01/g-s1-25479/nevada-latino-voters-trump-harris-culinary-union

One of those articles also cites Nevada's incumbant Democratic governor getting ousted in 2022 as a sign that things are different. 

Edited October 22 by SydneyCarton

[South Austin 52505]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Oh, they are. They're all in for Harris, and they're knocking the doors. I was referring to hadnly the folks doing the work in/for the Culinary Union have remarked a lack of enthusiasm for Harris kind of a thing. 

Ah, I had not heard that.  One thing I learned about the culinary industry from Fight Club --

Edited October 22 by South Austin

[SydneyCarton 48106]

Just now, South Austin said:

Ah, I had not heard that.  One thing I learned about the culinary industry from Fight Club --

I updated my post with some links. 

[Js1 85337]

9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

One of those articles also cites Nevada's incumbant Democratic governor getting ousted in 2022 as a sign that things are different. 

I don't think that can be construed to 2024.  He lost because of COVID restrictions he put in place in 2020, which, *gasp* disproportionately hurt the tourism industry in Nevada, which is like like 43% of the state's GDP and 1/3 of the workforce.  He absolutely got beaten over the head with that. And he only lost by like 16k votes.  It was not some blowout - like 1.5%

He lost, while CCM won re-election, 3 of 4 House Dems won, and the Dems kept their supermajority in the state legislature and won SOS, AG and Treasurer.  

She can win Nevada - it is going to depend on getting the ballots returned and how the independents vote this year.  Considering most independents are younger and persons of color, that does favor her. 

If Dems turn out their votes in Clark and Washoe, she wins.  If they lag, she loses.  

Edited October 22 by Js1

[Bozo_Casanova 26461]

Do we have a prediction thread up yet? I’m almost ready to call my shot.

[South Austin 52505]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

Do we have a prediction thread up yet? I’m almost ready to call my shot.

It's going to be Texas over Vandy by a field goal.

[Js1 85337]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Do we have a prediction thread up yet? I’m almost ready to call my shot.

Start it. But I'm inclined to wait until November 1, because people will want to look at the EV data and there's still 10 good days of early voting before the small break before Election Day. 

[TexEx15 17529]

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Rich kids in Missouri stealing Harris/Walz signs.
 

 

The AUDACITY of the mom to bitch about liberals.

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Fuck that rotten brat and his horrible mom.  
I have no fucking chill about this. In 2020 my daughter (then 14) destroyed a neighbor’s Trump sign and I dragged her ass up on their front porch and made her apologize to their face and bring them a new one, too. 

Good parenting.

[4th&Five 41552]

 

[SydneyCarton 48106]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I don't think that can be construed to 2024.  He lost because of COVID restrictions he put in place in 2020, which, *gasp* disproportionately hurt the tourism industry in Nevada, which is like like 43% of the state's GDP and 1/3 of the workforce.  He absolutely got beaten over the head with that. And he only lost by like 16k votes.  It was not some blowout - like 1.5%

He lost, while CCM won re-election, 3 of 4 House Dems won, and the Dems kept their supermajority in the state legislature and won SOS, AG and Treasurer.  

People also seem to split tickets disproportionally at the top, and people also seem to let memories linger. The poor economy isn't helping. The other article cited lingering weakness among the latino vote in Nevada. And lets not act like Biden whipped Nevada's ass, he won by 2%. It doesn't take much, and the early returns, albeit very limited, are concerning. 

[Aqua Buddha 14596]

Two anecdotes:

I talked to my 80 year old mother who lives in Oklahoma.  She had prolly half of her Southern Baptist Sunday School class is voting Harris but not being public about it because they think Trump is insane.  Harris ain't winning Oklahoma, lord knows, but I thought that was funny.

My wife (no pics) and her department of all women (no pics) are having a team outing to go vote.  They're going to lunch then to vote.  It's about 10 women, prolly half R's and half D's.  Ages from 25 to 50.  All college educated professional types.  They're all voting for Harris because they think JD Vance is a sexist fuck face.

[Bozo_Casanova 26461]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Start it. But I'm inclined to wait until November 1, because people will want to look at the EV data and there's still 10 good days of early voting before the small break before Election Day. 

If there’s not one up I’ll probably start one this weekend. 

[HenryJames 66052]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

The poor economy isn't helping.

wut

[Js1 85337]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

People also seem to split tickets disproportionally at the top, and people also seem to let memories linger. The poor economy isn't helping. The other article cited lingering weakness among the latino vote in Nevada. And lets not act like Biden whipped Nevada's ass, he won by 2%. It doesn't take much, and the early returns, albeit very limited, are concerning. 

He also hit 50%, which Hillary did not do. But she won it.

It is always a bit of a knife fight, in the same way Wisconsin is (except when Obama was on the ballot, they voted for him like he was their senator)

[TexEx15 17529]

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2024/10/politics/political-fundraising-elderly-election-invs-dg/
 

“Often coming in $5 or $10 at a time, contributions from this small sampling of donors alone added up to more than $6 million over the last five years — the majority of which ended up with Trump and a long list of other Republican candidates, CNN found.“

 

[SydneyCarton 48106]

3 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

wut

I should have been more clear. One of the links I posted cited several Latino people who were complaining about the economy and the cost of groceries and basically still giving Trump a pass on all of the negative effects of Covid, while tying them to Harris. It's a perception versus reality thing. 

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

He also hit 50%, which Hillary did not do. But she won it.

It is always a bit of a knife fight, in the same way Wisconsin is (except when Obama was on the ballot, they voted for him like he was their senator)

I realize Nevada is always close. It was super fucking close last time, as well. Which is why I'm sensitive to early returns, and why I am somewhat dismissive of the "I'll believe NV turns blue when it happens" angle that many posters here support, almost taking it for granted 

[Bevo in VA 342]

1 hour ago, hookem2010 said:

So early signs look bad for Nevada, good for PA, and possibly promising for GA? Or am I misreading things?

And I'm guessing if one state is to look bad, Nevada would be the ideal choice (outside of # EVs) because it's probably least indicative of how other swing states are going?

Looks like there was an update from Clark County and a lot of ballots weren't initially counted by the SOS.  Good news for Dems.

 

 

[SydneyCarton 48106]

4 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

https://www.cnn.com/interactive/2024/10/politics/political-fundraising-elderly-election-invs-dg/
 

“Often coming in $5 or $10 at a time, contributions from this small sampling of donors alone added up to more than $6 million over the last five years — the majority of which ended up with Trump and a long list of other Republican candidates, CNN found.“

 

This entire fucking article is basically detaling how Republicans and Trump fuck over these people, including a direct fucking comparison showing how Harris's emails are much, much clearler, and yet this is the fucking headline, the first message that people see following the link:

 

Get all the way fucked, CNN. It's just fucking exhausting. 

[ConferenceRoom 6141]

1 minute ago, Bevo in VA said:

Looks like there was an update from Clark County and a lot of ballots weren't initially counted by the SOS.  Good news for Dems.

 

 

Touchdown!

[Js1 85337]

Just now, Bevo in VA said:

Looks like there was an update from Clark County and a lot of ballots weren't initially counted by the SOS.  Good news for Dems.

 

 

Ralston click baiting? No!

I don’t think anyone is taking NV for granted, thought the GOP has been talking about it for 20 years now and failed to win it much, except for 2022 Gov and a decent stretch in the Obama era with Dean Heller and the Republican governor they all hate now because he’s not MAGA (forgot his name), but they have not won it at the presidential level since 2004. And let’s not forget the massive polling errors or else Harry Reid loses in 2010 and CCM loses in 2022 and Rosen barely wins in 2018 

If you tells Dems they could potentially trade NV for AZ/GA/NC in the long term, I think they’d be okay with it. It’s a lot of fighting over 6 EVs when you get a better return on AZ (11) and GA/NC (16) that favor the Dems more - big urban centers, more diversified suburbs, more college educated voters, etc. 

But Harris isn’t taking any of the 7 swing states for granted. She’s been to NV plenty. Obama was there over the weekend too. 

[SimonBolivar 10958]

17 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Start it. But I'm inclined to wait until November 1, because people will want to look at the EV data and there's still 10 good days of early voting before the small break before Election Day. 

So you want to start a prediction thread at the start of the 4th quarter? Come on man, let's get risky.

[Js1 85337]

Friday rally in Houston for Harris? 👀 

 

Campaign Rally in Houston, TX with Vice President Kamala Harris

Rally

Friday, October 25

3 – 8pm CDT

 

 

 

 

Houston, TX 77003

Map

---

About this event

 

Join Vice President Kamala Harris for a campaign rally in Houston, TX!

More details coming soon.

 

 

[David Dennison 18860]

NM

Edited October 22 by David Dennison

[David Dennison 18860]

14 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I should have been more clear. One of the links I posted cited several Latino people who were complaining about the economy and the cost of groceries and basically still giving Trump a pass on all of the negative effects of Covid, while tying them to Harris. It's a perception versus reality thing. 

Liberal media.

[LTbear 4169]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Friday rally in Houston for Harris? 👀 

 

 

Campaign Rally in Houston, TX with Vice President Kamala Harris

Rally

Friday, October 25

3 – 8pm CDT

 

 

 

 

Houston, TX 77003

Map

---

About this event

 

Join Vice President Kamala Harris for a campaign rally in Houston, TX!

More details coming soon.

 

[Js1 85337]

4 minutes ago, LTbear said:

Probably trying to help Allred over the line, if they can. He probably won’t be here but if she can juice some enthusiasm to get him over the hump

Edited October 22 by Js1

[The Original Greaser Bob 2833]

1 hour ago, Constant said:

Voting tomorrow and taking the girls so they can see how the process works. 

Just point of order here.  I know your girls are angels, but the ONLY bad part of waiting an hour yesterday was a mom two people away from me with some unruly boys who needed to grow up and be taken in hand who just grabassed and yelled the entire time.

Edited October 22 by The Original Greaser Bob

[LTbear 4169]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Probably trying to help Allred over the line, if they can. He probably won’t be here but if she can juice some enthusiasm to get him over the hump

My gif could apply to that scenario equally as well

[Gatorubet 30238]

38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I don't think that can be construed to 2024.  He lost because of COVID restrictions he put in place in 2020, which, *gasp* disproportionately hurt the tourism industry in Nevada, which is like like 43% of the state's GDP and 1/3 of the workforce.  He absolutely got beaten over the head with that. And he only lost by like 16k votes.  It was not some blowout - like 1.5%

IOW, “…all politics is local”

[gernblansten 3197]

56 minutes ago, 'stache said:

Trump ruined it for all those folks who like to order an Arnold Palmer

[Js1 85337]

3 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

IOW, “…all politics is local”

Yes. Governor races can be really weird, with ticket splitting for federal/state races. That’s why you can see Hogan or Scott get elected in VT/MD but the Dems in Senate/Presidential elections by huge margins in those states. New Hampshire is another one - Harris will likely win it by 7-9 points but Ayotte is probably going to win the governor race. 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2833]

1 minute ago, gernblansten said:

Trump ruined it for all those folks who like to order an Arnold Palmer

Not me.  First words to every waiter from here on in will be, vaguely suggestively, "how's your Arnold Palmer?"

[Js1 85337]

Just now, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Not me.  First words to every waiter from here on in will be, vaguely suggestively, "how's your Arnold Palmer?"

“How big is your Arnold Palmer?”

[chainsaw 9869]

There's no way exactly 100,000 people early voted in Harris County yesterday. That has to be some kind of cap or limit or glitch in the reporting, right?

https://earlyvoting.texas-election.com/Elections/getElectionEVDates.do

There's no way exactly 0 people early voted in Dallas and Tarrant Counties yesterday, either.

46,280 for Bexar is a record high First Day EV turnout

https://www.expressnews.com/news/article/bexar-county-early-voting-record-19848470.php

46,611 for Travis is a record high First Day EV turnout

https://cbsaustin.com/news/local/long-wait-times-seen-as-early-voting-kicks-off-in-texas

 

[Bozo_Casanova 26461]

Just now, chainsaw said:

There's no way exactly 100,000 people early voted in Harris County yesterday

It’s just as likely as any other specific number

[Js1 85337]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It’s just as likely as any other specific number

Didn’t the county tweet say like 124,000? 

Also if it was exactly 100,000, voter #100,000 should win some kind of prize. That’s cool

But it was more than that 

[Bozo_Casanova 26461]

The real Slim Shady stands up for Kamala Harris

 

[Js1 85337]

3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

There's no way exactly 0 people early voted in Dallas and Tarrant Counties yesterday, either.

There’s lag in the reporting, always. Just like Ralston not getting the full  numbers in NV

[chainsaw 9869]

This article says over 56k for Dallas County (it was 60,958 in 2020)

https://www.nbcdfw.com/decision-2024/north-texas-sees-record-turnout-challenges-on-first-day-of-early-voting/3676885/

 

[Huckleberry 32861]

Harris was posted as 125,472 on the county site last night. Seems like they sent a file to the state that only had 100,000 listed. Almost certainly a clerical error. 

Edited October 22 by Huckleberry

[Js1 85337]

Just now, chainsaw said:

This article says over 56k for Dallas County (it was 60,958 in 2020)

https://www.nbcdfw.com/decision-2024/north-texas-sees-record-turnout-challenges-on-first-day-of-early-voting/3676885/

 

I think @StassneyHorn mentioned there’s usually a mid morning update for the SOS site as more numbers come in. What you’re seeing now on their site is likely what was sent last night before whoever updates it logged off 

[chainsaw 9869]

Basically, huge Day One jumps for Travis and Bexar, slight Day One dips for Harris and Dallas.

Just now, Js1 said:

I think @StassneyHorn mentioned there’s usually a mid morning update for the SOS site as more numbers come in. What you’re seeing now on their site is likely what was sent last night before whoever updates it logged off 

That's good. I figured there was something like that going on.

[Helobious 9454]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

“A good idea doesn’t care who had it”

[chainsaw 9869]

To be fair, from a voter enthusiasm standpoint, 2020 is a crazy moment to compare 2024 to because TFG was in office and people were highly motivated to get him the fuck out, especially since there was a life-altering global pandemic that he was royally fucking up.

We all feel like covid is collectively behind us, but taking all that into consideration, the fact that some of these blue counties are shattering Day One EV records is pretty impressive.

[Thatguy 8699]

9 hours ago, The Dog said:

 

Harris should say she used to shovel shit at a waste management plant while she was in college so we can all get a laugh watching Trump run over there and shovel shit for a photo op just not to be outdone.

Edited October 22 by Thatguy