2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[WelfareBuysMyWeed 5,445]

Fuck you, trump. Fuck you, ted cruz.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

Another point about the acknowledged flaws of 538's analysis is that they correctly predicted Biden AND had him 89-11 to win. They were right but a couple of thousands votes here and there, Trump would have won. In addition, they and the polls were completely wrong about 2016.

Because of those flaws, I could see the idea that unless 538 is 100-0 or 99-1, it's too close to call given the margins of error.

Edited October 22 by Nice Guy Eddie

[Js1 85,401]

5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Maybe we will see unprecedented ticket splitting, but if Dems were collapsing on the ground, you'd think they would be pouring money into the the House to try and hold the line.  

This (2 weeks out) is usually when the panic starts and you start seeing  anonymous operatives screaming about warning signs on the ground in competitive/tossup districts. And Dems LOVE to panic and tell people about it.

[South Austin 52,519]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

And Dems LOVE to panic and tell people about it.

We better start Arch Manning from here on out or we'll never win another game this season!!!!

[Js1 85,401]

1 minute ago, South Austin said:

We better start Arch Manning from here on out or we'll never win another game this season!!!!

You laugh, but this board is going to be as bad as the football one was Saturday night, except for the next 2 weeks. 

[Bateshorn 9,928]

2 minutes ago, South Austin said:

We better start Arch Manning from here on out or we'll never win another game this season!!!!

The only place on this board having a more little bitch moment is the Football sub 

Edited October 22 by Bateshorn

[Bateshorn 9,928]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

This (2 weeks out) is usually when the panic starts and you start seeing  anonymous operatives screaming about warning signs on the ground in competitive/tossup districts. And Dems LOVE to panic and tell people about it.

In Politico Pro, the only outside expenditures I'm seeing in Nebraska CD-2 are all Red Superpacs. 

[Js1 85,401]

1 minute ago, Bateshorn said:

In Politico Pro, the only outside expenditures I'm seeing in Nebraska CD-2 are all Red Superpacs. 

The Politico article from last week said GOP has pretty much written off Bacon/NE-02 and a bunch of California House GOPers, like Mike Garcia.  And that they are doing everything they can to save Michelle Steel, including pulling resources from Garcia.

Bacon and Garcia both survived 2020, yet we are 2 weeks out and the NRCC is like "lol you're on your own" 

[Bateshorn 9,928]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

The Politico article from last week said GOP has pretty much written off Bacon/NE-02 and a bunch of California House GOPers, like Mike Garcia.  And that they are doing everything they can to save Michelle Steel, including pulling resources from Garcia.

Bacon and Garcia both survived 2020, yet we are 2 weeks out and the NRCC is like "lol you're on your own" 

Like I said, Trump is a unique political entitity, but if you follow the money, the Democrats look like they are feeling good. Doesn't mean Harris isn't going to hit me up for the 50th time today, but the money doesn't lie.  It doesn't always tell a compelete story, but it doesn't lie. 

[austingirl 2,191]

1 hour ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

I have no idea how you blackmail someone that leads a cult and has absolutely no shame.

You threaten him with info that will send him to jail for the rest of his life. 

[SydneyCarton 48,110]

Just now, austingirl said:

You threaten him with info that will send him to jail for the rest of his life. 

Bingo. Like all the bank transactions you made on his behalf to buy him, and of which you have receipts. And probably a video or two of some live boys and dead girls for good measure. 

[thepop 4,409]

2 hours ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I can't speak for Arab Americans, but my experience with Iranians is that a lot of them like Trump as well. 

My stab at why: They don't necessarily have an issue with a dictatorship or a fascist, power hungry leader. They think there is a possibility of good ones and bad ones. And they think Trump would do good. 

 

 

This is so absurd and way off. I can speak for Persians.

 

Iranian diaspora are in the US because Iran has been held hostage by the islamic republic. Both diaspora and the large majority of Iranians in Iran are anti-regime and want the islamic dictatorship overthrown. Traditionally Iranian diaspora have been democrat leaning but things have changed in the 20 years. First there was the 2008 green movement in Iran against the government, Obama did not support them in any way. In fact, Obama made the Iran deal which  is very unpopular with Iranians because that only helped loosen sanctions and get the regime more money. Furthermore, Biden did the same thing, he allowed lots funds to be freed to the regime which is only used to terrorize the iranian people and the middle east. He also did not support the iranian people in any way duing the 2022 uprising. Trump on the other hand did some things that are very popular with Iranians. One he ordered the killing of the IRGC general Solemeini, an act celebrated by Iranians to this day. We would piss on his grave if we could. Second he got rid of the Iran nuclear deal, and third he put the IRGC on the terrorist list. Democrats have helped the islamic republic and republicans have hurt them. Even Jimmy Carter is hated to this day for his role in helping them get into power.

 

Now I'm not a moron in a cult so i'm not voting for Trump, but generally speaking it would benefit me to vote republican if I was solely focused on helping Iran be free.

Edited October 22 by thepop

[ConferenceRoom 6,144]

You guys aren't thinking Soviet enough. Polonium tea.

[Chopper 17,238]

15 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Early Voting info, like registrations, doesn't tell the untrained eye all that much, tbh. 

Early voting definitely tells you about expected OVERALL turnout. Correct me if I'm wrong but there's a proven correlation between the two. In concert with other statistics like new registrations, once you have enough data, I begin to form my own opinions. I like what I'm seeing in GA and PA. In AZ there's not enough data. 

[Js1 85,401]

5 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Like I said, Trump is a unique political entitity, but if you follow the money, the Democrats look like they are feeling good. Doesn't mean Harris isn't going to hit me up for the 50th time today, but the money doesn't lie.  It doesn't always tell a compelete story, but it doesn't lie. 

You hearing things in DC? 

Where's @quigley and @Ghost of LL with that good $9.95 insider shit? 

[Js1 85,401]

Just now, Chopper said:

In AZ there's not enough data. 

Lest we all forgot

"MARICOPA INCOMING" 

For days. Because god fucking damn, is AZ slow with mail.  AP didn't call Arizona's Senate race in 2022 until Friday. It was Nov 14/15 when they finally called it for Hobbs over Lake too.  

[The Dog 44,060]

 

[SydneyCarton 48,110]

5 minutes ago, thepop said:

This is so absurd and way off. I can speak for Persians.

 

Iranian diaspora are in the US because Iran has been held hostage by the islamic republic. Both diaspora and the large majority of Iranians in Iran are anti-regime and want the islamic dictatorship overthrown. Traditionally Iranian diaspora have been democrat leaning but things have changed in the 20 years. First there was the 2008 green movement in Iran against the government, Obama did not support them in any way. In fact, Obama made the Iran deal which  is very unpopular with Iranians because that only helped loosen sanctions and get the regime more money. Furthermore, Biden did the same thing, he allowed lots funds to be freed to the regime which is only used to terrorize the iranian people and the middle east. He also did not support the iranian people in any way duing the 2022 uprising. Trump on the other hand did some things that are very popular with Iranians. One he ordered the killing of the IRGC general Solemeini, an act celebrated by Iranians to this day. We would piss on his grave if we could. Second he got rid of the Iran nuclear deal, and third he put the IRGC on the terrorist list. Democrats have helped the islamic republic and republicans have hurt them. Even Jimmy Carter is hated to this day for his role in helping them get into power.

 

Now I'm not a moron in a cult so i'm not voting for Trump, but generally speaking it would benefit me to vote republican if I was solely focused on helping Iran be free.

Would Trump declaring war on Iran qualify under the umbrella of "helping Iran to be free?" That's an honest question, by the way. 

[Bateshorn 9,928]

5 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You hearing things in DC? 

Where's @quigley and @Ghost of LL with that good $9.95 insider shit? 

Everybody is panicking, of course. That's what Democrats do. "Weak with Latinos. Weak with Black Men....etc."

But what they are doing with their money is a different story. 

 

The problem is nobody knows what the "Durrrr..both sides.....I HATE POLITICS......But I'm gonna vote!!!!" contingent is going to do. 

Edited October 22 by Bateshorn

[wildcat09 29,355]

26 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, duh.  Follow the money and where people are going, not what some GOP operative on Twitter says. 

Harris wouldn't be making a trip to Houston this late in the cycle unless their internal polling has Allred in striking distance and a visit could fire up Harris County Dems to push him over the top.  

She is making a late visit somewhere that helps a downballot candidate.  Trump's trips to Coachella, Aurora, New York City, etc. doesn't help anyone downballot.  He didn't feature Garvey at all, there's no governor or Senate race in CO/NY and he didn't feature any of the tossup House candidates in NY/CO/CA. 

Also, it sounds like the Houston rally will focus on abortion and the harm Texas' abortion laws have wreaked on women. That could help both statewide and nationally.

[The Dog 44,060]

 

[Js1 85,401]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

 

Not to mention Tim, Barack and Baldwin are doing a rally there together. 

[Bateshorn 9,928]

1 minute ago, The Dog said:

 

This whole news line is absurd.  Harris has been fucking living in the upper midewest for the last 3 months. If there is a chance that Allred can beat Cruz, you can burn 12 hours to explore it. Becuase Tester is going to lose. There's potentially multiple supreme court seats riding on it.  You gotta throw the deep ball occasionally.  You just don't want to do it on every play at the expense of the run game like Clinton did. 

[Chopper 17,238]

bluesky video won't embed here (AHEM!) so you'll just have to use your imagination

[gmr548 16,580]

27 minutes ago, South Austin said:

We better start Arch Manning from here on out or we'll never win another game this season!!!!

 

25 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You laugh, but this board is going to be as bad as the football one was Saturday night, except for the next 2 weeks. 

 

25 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The only place on this board having a more little bitch moment is the Football sub 

Please have the decency not to Football Board the Cloak Room.

[Bateshorn 9,928]

2 minutes ago, Chopper said:

bluesky video won't embed here (AHEM!) so you'll just have to use your imagination

"Walz said one slightly naughty word while Trump obsesses about Arnold Palmer's Huge Dong.  Why that's bad for Harris."

[Js1 85,401]

4 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This whole news line is absurd.  Harris has been fucking living in the upper midewest for the last 3 months. If there is a chance that Allred can beat Cruz, you can burn 12 hours to explore it. Becuase Tester is going to lose. There's potentially multiple supreme court seats riding on it.  You gotta throw the deep ball occasionally.  You just don't want to do it on every play at the expense of the run game like Clinton did. 

Yep. She’s been all over the 7 swing states unless it’s a fundraiser in NY/CA. One evening in Houston is not at the level of Hillary completely ignoring Wisconsin 

[SydneyCarton 48,110]

8 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Everybody is panicking, of course. That's what Democrats do. "Weak with Latinos. Weak with Black Men....etc."

But what they are doing with their money is a different story. 

 

The problem is nobody knows what the "Durrrr..both sides.....I HATE POLITICS......But I'm gonna vote!!!!" contingent is going to do. 

Come on dude. I think we all knoe EXACTLY what that contingent is going to do...

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This whole news line is absurd.  Harris has been fucking living in the upper midewest for the last 3 months. If there is a chance that Allred can beat Cruz, you can burn 12 hours to explore it. Becuase Tester is going to lose. There's potentially multiple supreme court seats riding on it.  You gotta throw the deep ball occasionally.  You just don't want to do it on every play at the expense of the run game like Clinton did. 

Is that deep ball being thrown by Quinn Ewers?

[Chopper 17,238]

he's on fire

Gov. Walz: Trump went to a McDonald’s and dressed up as the drive thru worker. He mixed up his weekends and thought that it was Halloween already. He's been forgetting things lately as you might have noticed. He looks much more like Ronald McDonald than the clown that he actually is. And Ronald wears less make-up.

[Bateshorn 9,928]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

Is that deep ball being thrown by Quinn Ewers?

[The Dog 44,060]

[gmr548 16,580]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Is that deep ball being thrown by Quinn Ewers?

[wood 11,227]

10 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Faulkner is far from an unbiased questioner. Fox has her on because she’s African American and hates the Dems. Or hates the Dem for the money. I’ve watched her shows and I’ve never seen a fair question or comment out of her mouth.

There is zero chance that I could prove, via paperwork, my first couple of pre-college grad jobs. There are SS reports that show I have income but the source (employer) isn’t listed. For sentimental reasons, I wish I had kept the paystub just to remind myself how far I’ve come. I think the first job was $3.85/hr but could be slightly off.

Exactly. Absence of proof is not proof of absence, and McDonald's acknowledged they don't keep records that far back. Sometimes, especially back then, if you made less than x amount, you didn't even have to file a tax return. I worked numerous jobs while at UT from 1983-89. Having to prove now that I worked at any one of them would be pretty difficult.

But Trump said it, like he says so many things, so voila ... another 'gotcha' moment for the rubes out there.

[ChiTownDoc 21,154]

56 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Well, straight males/men in general—something is just wrong. The White Gays aren’t far behind.

 

Plenty of well off white gays going that direction, true.  Free Will isn't a thing...all I can think of. 

[Bateshorn 9,928]

2 minutes ago, wood said:

Exactly. Absence of proof is not proof of absence, and McDonald's acknowledged they don't keep records that far back. Sometimes, especially back then, if you made less than x amount, you didn't even have to file a tax return. I worked numerous jobs while at UT from 1983-89. Having to prove now that I worked at any one of them would be pretty difficult.

But Trump said it, like he says so many things, so voila ... another 'gotcha' moment for the rubes out there.

If it was the early 80s, she was probably still on her mom's taxes. My mom claimed me until the last possible year, which used to drive me crazy because I was eligible for the EITC a year or two in the 90s because I worked in kitchens during summer/school and was under the limit.  Not being able to recoup some FICA each year was a kick in the nuts. 

[Pancho 44,856]

37 minutes ago, Js1 said:

You laugh, but this board is going to be as bad as the football one was Saturday night, except for the next 2 weeks. 

 

 

“Now…imagine we lose to Vanderbilt”

 

 

[thepop 4,409]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Would Trump declaring war on Iran qualify under the umbrella of "helping Iran to be free?" That's an honest question, by the way. 

No, and that's why I think it's extremely stupid some Iranians support him and I am embarrassed by it. War may lead to a free Iran but after many innocent lives lost which no one wants.

What they don't understand is neither party cares about Iran. Trump doing things like ordering the assassination of the general was for his own benefit not to help Iranians. He even came out the other day and said he is not interested in regime change, and yet they will vote for him. 

[Bateshorn 9,928]

2 minutes ago, ChiTownDoc said:

Plenty of well off white gays going that direction, true.  Free Will isn't a thing...all I can think of. 

Well, holy fuck, like half the GOP staff are gayer than Cody Rigsby. 

[Tuco 5,076]

27 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Everybody is panicking, of course. That's what Democrats do. "Weak with Latinos. Weak with Black Men....etc."

But what they are doing with their money is a different story. 

 

The problem is nobody knows what the "Durrrr..both sides.....I HATE POLITICS......But I'm gonna vote!!!!" contingent is going to do. 

The problem with modern polling is that it filters for people who want to answer political questions.  Everyone else might as well be dark matter: we know it's there, we know it outweighs the known universe, but we have no idea what it actually is.  

 

Edit to remove response on Iran.

Edited October 22 by Tuco

[GopherRock 1,765]

12 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

This whole news line is absurd.  Harris has been fucking living in the upper midewest for the last 3 months. If there is a chance that Allred can beat Cruz, you can burn 12 hours to explore it. Becuase Tester is going to lose. There's potentially multiple supreme court seats riding on it.  You gotta throw the deep ball occasionally.  You just don't want to do it on every play at the expense of the run game like Clinton did. 

Equivalent of taking a shot at the end zone on 1st down from the opponent 40. 

 

39 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Another point about the acknowledged flaws of 538's analysis is that they correctly predicted Biden AND had him 89-11 to win. They were right but a couple of thousands votes here and there, Trump would have won. In addition, they and the polls were completely wrong about 2016.

Because of those flaws, I could see the idea that unless 538 is 100-0 or 99-1, it's too close to call given the margins of error.

How many of those 538 sims did Trump win the popular vote? Those have got to be thrown out.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

22 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Everybody is panicking, of course. That's what Democrats do. "Weak with Latinos. Weak with Black Men....etc."

But what they are doing with their money is a different story. 

 

The problem is nobody knows what the "Durrrr..both sides.....I HATE POLITICS......But I'm gonna vote!!!!" contingent is going to do. 

It's fair to say that Harris is not doing as well with certain demographics compared to previous election cycles but I question how many of those in changing voting patterns really showed up to vote before or now. Feels more like talk than action for most.

[wood 11,227]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

If it was the early 80s, she was probably still on her mom's taxes. My mom claimed me until the last possible year, which used to drive me crazy because I was eligible for the EITC a year or two in the 90s because I worked in kitchens during summer/school and was under the limit.  Not being able to recoup some FICA each year was a kick in the nuts. 

Good point. I forgot about that. IIRC Kamala's McDonald's job was in 1983, same year I started at UT (the real one, not Tennessee).

[Js1 85,401]

4 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

It's fair to say that Harris is not doing as well with certain demographics compared to previous election cycles but I question how many of those in changing voting patterns really showed up to vote before or now. Feels more like talk than action for most.

I have seen more than a few anecdotes of some young male proclaiming they were voting for Trump and then they weren't registered to vote and missed the deadline.

Which, LOL

[Firemans4Horn 18,106]

51 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

In addition, they and the polls were completely wrong about 2016.

538 gave Trump a 1-3 chance in 2016 which was wayyyyyy better than every other model. 1 in 3 chances win all the time. Just watch college football this Saturday. 

[Hank Kingsley 20,967]

34 minutes ago, thepop said:

Now I'm not a moron in a cult so i'm not voting for Trump, but generally speaking it would benefit me to vote republican if I was solely focused on helping Iran be free.

This actually kind of makes my point. To think Republicans give a fuck about helping Iran being free is ridiculous. The Persians I know (including family) think Trump might be crazy enough to make it happen, and it's because of his authoritarian tendencies. It's desperate wishcasting that makes zero sense. 

 

 

[Js1 85,401]

Just now, Firemans4Horn said:

538 gave Trump a 1-3 chance in 2016 which was wayyyyyy better than every other model. 1 in 3 chances win all the time. Just watch college football this Saturday. 

And the pollsters realized they weren't weighing correctly and adjusted accordingly after 2016.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11,669]

 

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

And the pollsters realized they weren't weighing correctly and adjusted accordingly after 2016.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,515]

On the whole "did she work at McDonalds" she may have a slight misremembering of the exact details. If she completely made up working at a burger joint if not McDonalds, that's wrong. If she can't remember all of the details, it's understandable.

Take Trump where he claims that he was one of the best high school baseball players in the state of NY. According to him, he even went to a pro tryout alongside future hall-of-famer, Willie McCovey. Sounds impressive.  Investigations showed that Trump batted <.150 in high school but guess what, there are missing box scores from the 60s.  I doubt the best player in NY batted that low. Perhaps his batting average was north of .150.  And as for trying out alongside McCovey, McCovey was already in his 5th year in the MLB when Trump was a senior. So unless Trump tried out for the majors while in junior high, he's completely lying about the situation.

As always Trump's lies are so numerous that we forget how many small lies he's told over the years.

[Sawbonz 27,578]

1 hour ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

Yes! 538 officially says that no matter who you want to win, that's probably not going to happen.

 

Harris

 

499

Trump

 

498

No winner

 

3

1,000

 simulations

 

 

https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2024-election-forecast/?cid=rrpromo

Do they run one that accounts for @Helobious having Trump a lead pipe cinch?

[Hank Kingsley 20,967]

37 minutes ago, Chopper said:

bluesky video won't embed here (AHEM!) so you'll just have to use your imagination

Straight into my veins.