2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Red Five 40836]

On the whole "did she work at McDonalds" she may have a slight misremembering of the exact details. If she completely made up working at a burger joint if not McDonalds, that's wrong. If she can't remember all of the details, it's understandable.
Take Trump where he claims that he was one of the best high school baseball players in the state of NY. According to him, he even went to a pro tryout alongside future hall-of-famer, Willie McCovey. Sounds impressive.  Investigations showed that Trump batted <.150 in high school but guess what there are missing box scores from the i doubt best player ny batted that low. perhaps his batting average was north of .150. and as for trying out alongside mccovey already year mlb when trump a senior. so unless tried majors while junior he completely lying about situation.> As always Trump's lies are so numerous that we forget how many small lies he's told over the years.

Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

[Js1 85275]

2 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

Because Trump drives the convo, because people refuse to just ignore him. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26435]

Couple things:

Thing one: Stein is almost certain to overperform Harris. That said, I expect the spread to be tighter, and I think it’s very possible both Harris and Robinson could overperform their Election Day polling average in North Carolina for different reasons.
 

Thing two: Over the last four elections,  national polling averages have been off ~3 points (which isn’t much) and swing state polls have missed by 3-4.  In 2008 and 2012, Obama overperformed. In 2016 and 2020, Trump overperformed.

in BOTH cases the miss largely comes down to assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. 
So the assessment at this stage boils down to:

1) are the polls exactly right?

2) if not, who is being under/over weighted in the models, and 

3) who do they vote for?

[Royalfan5 2353]

5 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Straight into my veins. 

 

As a rural Nebraskan who played 8-man football, there is nothing more than football coaches with a rural Nebraska background love more than an opportunity to call someone a dipshit. 

[Satchel 6925]

4 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

Very much this. It’s so damn silly.

[Js1 85275]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Thing one: Stein is almost certain to overperform Harris. That said, I expect the spread to be tighter, and I think it’s very possible both Harris and Robinson could overperform their Election Day polling average in North Carolina for different reasons.

Stein will def overperform Harris, but I'm guessing Robinson is suffering from the same thing Trump did after Access Hollywood.  

He's definitely going to lose, probably by 7-10 points, but probably a good chunk of people just don't want to admit to voting for him. But they will. 

[Sawbonz 27536]

13 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Take Trump where he claims that he was one of the best high school baseball players in the state of NY

[Bateshorn 9927]

10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

On the whole "did she work at McDonalds" she may have a slight misremembering of the exact details. If she completely made up working at a burger joint if not McDonalds, that's wrong. If she can't remember all of the details, it's understandable.

Take Trump where he claims that he was one of the best high school baseball players in the state of NY. According to him, he even went to a pro tryout alongside future hall-of-famer, Willie McCovey. Sounds impressive.  Investigations showed that Trump batted <.150 in high school but guess what, there are missing box scores from the 60s.  I doubt the best player in NY batted that low. Perhaps his batting average was north of .150.  And as for trying out alongside McCovey, McCovey was already in his 5th year in the MLB when Trump was a senior. So unless Trump tried out for the majors while in junior high, he's completely lying about the situation.

As always Trump's lies are so numerous that we forget how many small lies he's told over the years.

A guy at Slate tracked it down. Not only is it a lie, it's actually pathetic.  He was a part time player, hit below .150, what kinda difficult to play with from a coaching perspective.  The only thing he could do was pick it at first.  He often get's boosted by kids who were years behind or a head of him and can't conspicously recall details. The guys that actually played with him had either very little memory or that he wasn't any good.  He got the equivalant of the senior day award for the kid who stuck it out for 4 years. 

We all played with some version of him HS.  I was basically the equivalent at 2nd base (no arm, can't hit, not terrible with the leather), minus being Fred Trump's shithead son.   

[Hank Kingsley 20904]

6 minutes ago, Royalfan5 said:

As a rural Nebraskan who played 8-man football, there is nothing more than football coaches with a rural Nebraska background love more than an opportunity to call someone a dipshit. 

Dipshit is a top 5 epithet, no doubt about it. I use it constantly. 

 

[SydneyCarton 48054]

As nervous as I am, I'm still willing to take a hit of hopeium, and this is some good shit here:


https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/3-tell-tale-signs-that-kamala-harris-will-beat-donald-trump.html

Quote

Donald Trump, his MAGA followers and Fox News are clinging to the hope that a slew of Republican-sponsored polls — which are allegedly intentionally slanted — will help produce a victory on Nov. 5 by energizing GOP voters who are fading in the enthusiasm battles with the Kamala Harris coalition.

 

It’s a tough task as the former president talks about genitalia, veers off message and continues to threaten “the enemy within” — his political opponents, the media and others — with prison. Republican leaders have been pleading with Trump to ditch the MAGA authoritarian messaging, but he refuses.

 

 

 

Meanwhile, independent polling indicates that Harris, the Vice President, is running through the finish line and, if the Democrats can get out their vote, is likely to be elected president.

 

 

Polling has consistently shown that Harris is building a team of Democrats, Independents and disaffected Republicans (from Bernie Sanders to Liz Cheney); the more voters learn about her, the more they like her; and she has dissolved Trump’s presumed advantage: the economy.

 

 

Harris has been ahead in nearly every independent poll released in the past two months, and there are signs that as election day draws near, she will claim most of the undecided and/or soft votes and win.

 

Here’s why Harris is likely to win:

 

 

FAVORABILITY

 

 

In accredited polls, voters simply find that Harris is a better candidate. In an AP poll released on Monday, Harris is plus-5 in favorability (51-46%), while Trump is minus-18 (40-58%).

 

 

And the favorability carries through the ticket, according to the AP poll: Democratic VP nominee Tim Walz has a plus-4 favorability rating (41-37%), while Trump running mate JD Vance is 15 points underwater (33-48%).

 

 

With voting underway or about to begin in dozens of states, campaign analysts believe this is a key factor, and Harris’ strong favorability is convincing voters who are now deciding.

 

 

According to an Emerson College poll, “Voters who made their decision on who to support over a month ago break for Trump, 52% to 48%, while voters who made up their mind in the last month or week break for Harris, 60% to 36%. The three percent of voters who said they could still change their mind currently favor Harris, 48% to 43%.”

 

 

Harris spent Monday campaigning with Cheney, a former member of the GOP’s House leadership, in three key battleground states.

 

 

Cheney, trying to persuade Republican voters to break from Trump, said they could find Harris a better choice — and choose her privately: “I know many Republicans who will vote for Vice President Harris but not be public. Remember, you can vote your conscience and not ever have to say a word to anybody. There will be millions of Republicans who do that on Nov. 5.”

 

 

ECONOMY

 

 

According to The Associated Press, which is another accredited pollster: “Trump has lost what had been an advantage on the economy, which many voters say is the most important issue this election season.”

 

 

When voters were asked by the AP whom they trust on key issues, Harris polled +12 on middle class taxes, +5 on housing costs, +2 on jobs and employment. She also polled +24 on abortion, a key issue that the Democrats have tied to economic freedom for women and families.

 

 

Trump led by two points on the cost of groceries and gas, and five points on tariffs.

 

 

FAKE POLLS

 

 

Two new independent national polls released Tuesday reveal Harris’ lead persists: Morning Consult (with no change vs. its last poll) shows Harris up 50-46%, while a Reuters/Ipsos (also no change vs. its last poll), shows Harris ahead, 48-45%.

 

 

Still, Many MAGA enthusiasts point to questionable polls and Polymarket, a crypto-based prediction market, whose bettors were giving Trump a 60% chance of winning this week, while Harris’s chances were 40%.

 

 

But the Wall Street Journal reported the Polymarket surge “might be a mirage.” The candidates were in a dead heat at the start of October.

 

 

According to the Wall Street Journal:

 

 

Trump’s gains on Polymarket have cheered his supporters, and they have been followed by the odds shifting in Trump’s favor in other betting markets. Elon Musk flagged Trump’s growing lead on Polymarket to his 200 million X followers on Oct. 6, praising the concept of betting markets. “More accurate than polls, as actual money is on the line,” Musk posted.

 

 

But the surge might be a mirage manufactured by a group of four Polymarket accounts that have collectively pumped about $30 million of crypto into bets that Trump will win.

 

 

In addition, the Democrats have pointed to a flood of fake GOP polls that are implying that Trump has momentum in the final month. But Democratic analyst Simon Rosenberg, who predicted the arrival of these polls weeks before they appeared, is calling them out — along with sites like FiveThirtyEight, which acknowledges the polls are bad data, but includes them anyway.

 

 

“Since late August more than 70 right-aligned polls have been dropped into the polling averages,” Rosenberg writes. “The two states that have been worked the hardest are North Carolina and Pennsylvania. In October of the 27 Presidential polls released in Pennsylvania, 16 are from right-aligned pollsters, a majority. Since Aug. 31, of the 41 Presidential polls released in North Carolina, 21, a majority have home come from right aligned pollsters. At least 31 right-aligned pollsters and sponsoring organizations have released polls in the last 7 weeks.”

 

 

North Carolina might be a tell-tale: “Trump and his campaign spending this much time in North Carolina shows they know they are behind in electoral college,” former GOP campaign strategist Matthew Dowd tweeted. “If they are trying this hard to win NC, it means they know they are in trouble.”

 

 

Rosenberg added: “This 2024 red wave op is much larger and involves many more actors and polls than the red wave campaign in 2022. It also involves new players — Polymarket, Elon — and feels far more desperate, frenetic, unhinged. Trumpian.”

 

[chainsaw 9857]

6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

no arm

username no longer checking out

[NorthLoop 14181]

2 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

As nervous as I am, I'm still willing to take a hit of hopeium, and this is some good shit here:


https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/3-tell-tale-signs-that-kamala-harris-will-beat-donald-trump.html

 

That's not what helobious said. 

[Js1 85275]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

As nervous as I am, I'm still willing to take a hit of hopeium, and this is some good shit here:


https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/3-tell-tale-signs-that-kamala-harris-will-beat-donald-trump.html

 

Only thing I quibble with is they are not "fake" polls - they're just poorly done and intentionally altered (i.e., basically eliminating Philly from a live voter sample) 

[RomaVicta 29902]

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

What if she's a dishonest person? Do you want to vote for a dishonest person? The American people will never tolerate a dishonest person in the White House.

If she's lying about this, what else might she be lying about?

 

[Bateshorn 9927]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

As nervous as I am, I'm still willing to take a hit of hopeium, and this is some good shit here:


https://www.nj.com/politics/2024/10/3-tell-tale-signs-that-kamala-harris-will-beat-donald-trump.html

 

Fucking chop up a line of that shit for me. 

 

 

[Aqua Buddha 14582]

Literally everything he touches turns to shit:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/mcdonalds-shares-fall-after-cdc-says-e-coli-outbreak-linked-to-quarter-pounders.html

 

McDonald’s shares dropped in extended trading Tuesday after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder burgers has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death.

The agency said 49 cases have been reported in 10 states from Sept. 27 to Oct. 11, with most of the illnesses in Colorado and Nebraska. “Most” sick people reported eating a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder, the CDC added.

[SydneyCarton 48054]

8 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Only thing I quibble with is they are not "fake" polls - they're just poorly done and intentionally altered (i.e., basically eliminating Philly from a live voter sample) 

I think intentionally altered constitues Fake.

Edited October 22 by SydneyCarton

[Js1 85275]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I think interntionally altered constitues Fake.

Dishonest? Manipulated? Fake would imply someone just made up the results.  

[SimonBolivar 10957]

2 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Literally everything he touches turns to shit:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/mcdonalds-shares-fall-after-cdc-says-e-coli-outbreak-linked-to-quarter-pounders.html

 

McDonald’s shares dropped in extended trading Tuesday after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder burgers has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death.

The agency said 49 cases have been reported in 10 states from Sept. 27 to Oct. 11, with most of the illnesses in Colorado and Nebraska. “Most” sick people reported eating a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder, the CDC added.

LOL and the Pod Save America guys just joked about how McDonald's never kills anyone.

[C-Man 27184]

Literally everything he touches turns to shit:
https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/mcdonalds-shares-fall-after-cdc-says-e-coli-outbreak-linked-to-quarter-pounders.html
 

McDonald’s shares dropped in extended trading Tuesday after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder burgers has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death.

The agency said 49 cases have been reported in 10 states from Sept. 27 to Oct. 11, with most of the illnesses in Colorado and Nebraska. “Most” sick people reported eating a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder, the CDC added.

Trump stick his dirty ass dick in the French fry potatoes?

[SydneyCarton 48054]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Dishonest? Manipulated? Fake would imply someone just made up the results.  

 

fake¹

/fāk/

adjective

 

1. not genuine; counterfeit.

[Underdog 28554]

30 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

She should throw a curve and said it was Burger Chef and not McDs, lets see trump struggle to find an existing BC to cosplay in. 

[chainsaw 9857]

33 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Why are we entertaining “Did she work at McD’s” as a serious question? Do we have any reason to think that she didn’t?

I would like to know her qualifications, actually.

[GopherRock 1765]

13 minutes ago, Aqua Buddha said:

Literally everything he touches turns to shit:

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/10/22/mcdonalds-shares-fall-after-cdc-says-e-coli-outbreak-linked-to-quarter-pounders.html

 

McDonald’s shares dropped in extended trading Tuesday after the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said an E. coli outbreak linked to McDonald’s Quarter Pounder burgers has led to 10 hospitalizations and one death.

The agency said 49 cases have been reported in 10 states from Sept. 27 to Oct. 11, with most of the illnesses in Colorado and Nebraska. “Most” sick people reported eating a McDonald’s Quarter Pounder, the CDC added.

 

[Biff Tannen 45665]

Did I miss someone posting that dipshit is going on Rogan on Friday?

[SydneyCarton 48054]

2 minutes ago, Biff Tannen said:

Did I miss someone posting that dipshit is going on Rogan on Friday?

Yes, 3 Putt. 

[C-Man 27184]

 

1 hour ago, wood said:

Exactly. Absence of proof is not proof of absence, and McDonald's acknowledged they don't keep records that far back. Sometimes, especially back then, if you made less than x amount, you didn't even have to file a tax return. I worked numerous jobs while at UT from 1983-89. Having to prove now that I worked at any one of them would be pretty difficult.

But Trump said it, like he says so many things, so voila ... another 'gotcha' moment for the rubes out there.

Mickey D’s are all franchise-owned anyway. Do all employment records for all Mickey D’s worldwide wind up in the corporate office? There’s a better-than-zero chance the owner/franchisee of the McDonald’s Kamala worked at back in 1983 is fucking dead and gone by now. But seriously, why are we devoting even an ounce of debate to this matter?

[chainsaw 9857]

2 minutes ago, C-Man said:

 

Mickey D’s are all franchise-owned anyway. Do all employment records for all Mickey D’s worldwide wind up in the corporate office? There’s a better-than-zero chance the owner/franchisee of the McDonald’s Kamala worked at back in 1983 is fucking dead and gone by now. But seriously, why are we devoting even an ounce of debate to this matter?

Couldn't she FOIA her own W-2 from the IRS

[jimmyjazz 45887]

37 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Dipshit is a top 5 epithet, no doubt about it. I use it constantly. 

 

Well, it's no jackwagon.

[4th&Five 41506]

Speaking of McD’s

[Red Five 40836]

Trump has said repeatedly that McDonalds “confirmed” she never worked there. Just fucking made up out of whole cloth. And so the story is “did she work there?” and not “Holy shit look at how crazy Trump is now”.

[chainsaw 9857]

Speaking of crazy, whatever happened to Laura Loomer? Did they bury her at Mar a Lago?

[C-Man 27184]

Trump: “It doesn’t cost 60 thousand bucks to bury a fucking Mexican!”

Also Trump: “I need the kind of generals Hitler had”

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/10/trump-military-generals-hitler/680327/

[wood 11225]

4 hours ago, Pancho said:

I was wondering when that was going to happen.

[safe sex 11696]

11 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Couldn't she FOIA her own W-2 from the IRS

Why the fuck should she even entertain this shit? Trump won't release any documents about himself.

[tx 3 putt 76869]

8 minutes ago, C-Man said:

Trump: “It doesn’t cost 60 thousand bucks to bury a fucking Mexican!”

Also Trump: “I need the kind of generals Hitler had”

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2024/10/trump-military-generals-hitler/680327/

 

soldier referenced in this story was Vanessa Guillén. I voted in her home district yesterday, the neighborhood has many murals in her honor

 

 

his comments will score big with his base 

 

Edited October 22 by tx 3 putt

[Js1 85275]

Just now, safe sex said:

Why the fuck should she even entertain this shit? Trump won't release any documents about himself.

This. Fuck that 

[tx 3 putt 76869]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

This. Fuck that 

[chainsaw 9857]

2 minutes ago, safe sex said:

Why the fuck should she even entertain this shit? Trump won't release any documents about himself.

I agree. I'm just explaining how she could get them if she ever needed them.

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

 
soldier referenced in this story was Vanessa Guillén. I voted in her home district yesterday, the neighborhood has many murals in her honor



 
 
his comments will score big with his base 
 

They’ll never hear them, nothing matters anymore with this fuckin guy.

[Derka 6151]

in 2020 my neighborhood was 4:1 in terms of trump signs vs biden signs, and the trump people usually also had giant trump flags, or five different signs in their yards, including those dumbass back the blue signs. this year my neighborhood is easily 3:1 in favor of harris-walz signs, with no shortage of allred signs either. the fervor that i saw four years ago is gone. this neighborhood has done a total 180. i can’t even explain how wild it feels to see the difference from the last election.

[Brisketexan 105060]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Couple things:

Thing one: Stein is almost certain to overperform Harris. That said, I expect the spread to be tighter, and I think it’s very possible both Harris and Robinson could overperform their Election Day polling average in North Carolina for different reasons.
 

Thing two: Over the last four elections,  national polling averages have been off ~3 points (which isn’t much) and swing state polls have missed by 3-4.  In 2008 and 2012, Obama overperformed. In 2016 and 2020, Trump overperformed.

in BOTH cases the miss largely comes down to assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. 
So the assessment at this stage boils down to:

1) are the polls exactly right?

2) if not, who is being under/over weighted in the models, and 

3) who do they vote for?

TLDR;  1) polling is shit, so 2) nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen, but 3) if you've been paying attention to this timeline, expect the fucking worst.

There, that covers it.

[chainsaw 9857]

He has no paths if he loses NC, right?

[tx 3 putt 76869]

Just now, Brisketexan said:

TLDR;  1) polling is shit, so 2) nobody knows what the fuck is going to happen, but 3) if you've been paying attention to this timeline, expect the fucking worst.

There, that covers it.

 

the russians are muddying the polling waters, then radio heads are running with those numbers predicting a huge trump V

if it doesn't happen, they'll all be screaming it was a fraud election 

[SimonBolivar 10957]

3 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

He has no paths if he loses NC, right?

He could win without NC if he picks up NV, AZ, GA, PA and MI.  He could even lose WI in that scenario and be fine.

 

Technically possible, but unlikely.

 

Edited October 22 by SimonBolivar

[tx 3 putt 76869]

1 minute ago, SimonBolivar said:

He could win without NC if he picks up NV, AZ, GA, PA and MI. 

 

 

 

east coast could decide this election very early into the evening 

[4th&Five 41506]

 

[Serak The Preparer 3431]

1 hour ago, Royalfan5 said:

As a rural Nebraskan who played 8-man football, there is nothing more than football coaches with a rural Nebraska background love more than an opportunity to call someone a dipshit. 

Look there's a thread for talking about 8-man rural Nebraska football and this isn't it. Get you shit together man.

[BrickHorn 18216]

3 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Nobody wished harm on them that I recall. They said they wouldn't feel bad when it happened. That's a significant difference. 

@Brisketexan concluded that, by voting their conscience, Muslim Americans were throwing a tantrum and seeking to harm anyone who disagreed with them. That is a ludicrous take.

Meanwhile, @Js1 and others expressed rather startling schadenfreude, indicating no sympathy for the eventual suffering of Muslims who voted against the candidate of their choosing. His position was that if Muslim Americans don’t vote the way Js1 demands they vote, then he won’t do shit about it and won’t feel any sympathy if Muslims end up persecuted by Trump. Which is orders of magnitude closer to what Brisket accuses the Muslims of doing, as compared to what the Muslims are actually doing.

Some of y'all are exceptionally smart but have a massive blind spot when it comes to partisan politics. I’m as liberal as it gets and a loyal Democratic voter. But on this issue, it’s understandable why Muslims could not bring themselves to support a Democrat or might come to a different conclusion on the risk calculus compared to the rest of us. I don’t agree with it. I think it reflects a massive underestimation of what a second term Trump would be capable of. But it’s based on legitimate concerns and the actual track record of the current Democratic administration, and being wrong or misjudging the likelihood of future events is not the same as being unreasonable.

It’s too bad the DNC didn’t let a Palestinian speak at the convention, because I think that could have helped. As it is, the party basically signaled that four more years of Democratic rule would be more of the same and Palestinians could fuck off. So now many Muslim Americans are left with two shitty options, from their perspective. 

Edited October 22 by BrickHorn

[henrygandorf 29189]