2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[BamaATL 16593]

11 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

This thread moves too fast for me to know whether this has been posted already. Good news potentially:

https://jasonstanford.substack.com/p/the-big-mistake-polls-are-making?r=d52ws&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

 

Fantastic article, well worth the read.  

[bluto 4943]

1 hour ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

Surly worlds colliding, he’s ceo of IBRX of stonk fame

[Js1 85602]

Just now, BamaATL said:

Fantastic article, well worth the read.  

Yes. Very succinct and easily explainable

She is going to win 

[HenryJames 66188]

[BurntOrange&White 40044]

20 minutes ago, Dbeasy said:

This thread moves too fast for me to know whether this has been posted already. Good news potentially:

https://jasonstanford.substack.com/p/the-big-mistake-polls-are-making?r=d52ws&utm_medium=ios&triedRedirect=true

 

You’ll know because @SydneyCarton will quote you and call you 3 putt 

[Biff Tannen 45750]

10 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Fantastic article, well worth the read.  

It was good overall, but this has no business in an article written in 2024.

Quote

A 2000 study found that in-person canvassing could boost turnout by 9-10%, while methods like texting or digital outreach had significantly lower impacts.

 

[ConferenceRoom 6147]

Votes by women of color in PA up 248% was my favorite part. 

[tx 3 putt 77535]

2 minutes ago, ConferenceRoom said:

Votes by women of color in PA up 248% was my favorite part. 

 

[HOOKEM4 5044]

16 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Whelp, that seals the deal for me. This killer clown is voting blue! *Slams faygo into the ground* Lets goooo!!!

[TexasEd 8077]

On 10/21/2024 at 2:08 PM, hookemATL said:

I have that bag of drugs for you, I will drive by and toss it to you in line.

 

That's my polling place.  Usually very quick.

 

On 10/21/2024 at 1:59 PM, ConferenceRoom said:

Check AMLD on El Salido, too. I have never seen it more than 15 minutes (ever), but right now it's at 16-45 minutes. I usually vote around 4pm so maybe that's normal. 

 

On 10/21/2024 at 1:55 PM, GhostOfTomJoad said:

My wife planned on voting at the Randall's at Cypress Creek/Lakeline in CP on her lunch break but when she got there the line was out the door & down past Jet's Pizza. Wilco tracker has had it at a steady 45 minute wait all afternoon. I figure I'll tough it out after work around 4pm.

Neighbors but I live in Travis by 2 blocks so I have to go elsewhere 

[Satchel 6949]

2 hours ago, henrygandorf said:

We should pass laws that shorten the presidential campaign season to 8 weeks while requiring polls must be reported out once weekly. The media money grab has gotten ridiculously out of hand.

[Chopper 17287]

37 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Anybody, whether they are white, black, Latino, Muslim, Jewish, LGBTQ, Asian, you name it that votes for Trump and if he wins deserves every fucking bad thing that happens to them.  

Let's face it. Unless you're one of his cronies or have a hook-up, if he wins it's bad for every American. Even if they're a white supremacist. We'd all be fucked by his policies and incompetence, just like last time, only this time it'll be much worse because they actually have a plan and people with experience to enact it. 

[atomheartbevo 89824]

9 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

No, they don't. Anyone who doesn't think Trump back in office would be a very real and existential danger to Muslim-Americans is not reasonable.

The only thing keeping him from demonizing Muslims right now instead of Haitians (or the GQP as a whole going after trans folks) is probably Michigan.

We can laugh at how fucking stupid and ignorant he sounds when he talks about Haitians eating pets or why all of the geese disappeared (they fucking migrated) but most likely, regardless of how fucking stupid he can be, as well as the people around him, he has made the calculated decision that trashing Haitians is not going to cost him any more Black votes than he's already lost (or never had in the first place).

I think Michigan will go for Kamala, but in order for him to win, Trump has to believe that Michigan is in play, and he can't help Kamala out by going after Muslims, even though MAGA would love for him to shit on Muslims some more.

He is a dumb motherfucker on a lot of things, but he can read audiences, unlike his running mate.

[BurntOrange&White 40044]

 

damn issues in Williamson co and Tarant, sure sure lmao

Edited October 23 by BurntOrange&White

[4th&Five 41599]

[Firemans4Horn 18127]

Just now, BurntOrange&White said:

Sounds like some bullshit Judge Tim O’Hare would run with. Him and Allen West with the Dallas GOP have a weekly “who’s the biggest potato” competition. 

[Chopper 17287]

38 minutes ago, wildcat09 said:

The Nate Cohn article a few days ago about how polls are weighting covered some of this, but this does a better job of explaining the effects of that weighting. Thanks for posting.

That Nate Cohn article was such a worthless mess. It made me dumber, if that's even possible. 

[Biff Tannen 45750]

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

How many county GOPs are going to be screaming this in the next two weeks?  It's their play.  Sow doubt among the populace and it makes it easier to claim fraud.  Again.

[F250 28826]

20 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Rich kids in Missouri stealing Harris/Walz signs.
 

 

Rich kids that drive a KIA?

[Born to Run 6569]

11 minutes ago, Satchel said:

We should pass laws that shorten the presidential campaign season to 8 weeks while requiring polls must be reported out once weekly. The media money grab has gotten ridiculously out of hand.

And no signs in the public ROW!¡!!

 

(Sorry Lakeway dude dealing with " no balls in women's" sports and "democrats for Trump" 4'x8'signs every 50 yards for months. I'm at my whits end.

 

Semi serious? Whats the jail time look like if my wife and I go on a spree of removal? Defacing? Counter Signs?

 

 

[Radical Larry 28664]

44 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

[Pancho 45062]

 

[Biff Tannen 45750]

8 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

And no signs in the public ROW!¡!!

 

(Sorry Lakeway dude dealing with " no balls in women's" sports and "democrats for Trump" 4'x8'signs every 50 yards for months. I'm at my whits end.

 

Semi serious? Whats the jail time look like if my wife and I go on a spree of removal? Defacing? Counter Signs?

 

 

All of the signs at the light at 620 and Quinlan Park mysteriously disappeared.  There were like 60 of them at one point.

[TwiceHorn 31554]

55 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If it gets her off the federal bench, we at least get that silver lining. Trump will only pick an AG that will do his personal bidding so it may not matter if it’s her or someone else. No one of character will accept his nomination.

And she's a lot dumber than some he could pick.

[mchookem 16408]

1 hour ago, TexEx15 said:

 

ngl... that's pretty badass

[Sawbonz 27596]

1 hour ago, HenryJames said:

[F250 28826]

14 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Gen Z is built different. Her big sister was told explicitly to stay out of it. I said “your sister is in big trouble and I need you to stay out of it. She destroyed the Trump sign in front of that house around the corner,” and her sister goes “well she couldn’t just burn it down.”

 

Eh, my dad's boomer cousin did (allegedly) the same thing a few years ago to his neighbor's Trump signs. These were large wooden signs and allegedly someone hooked them up to a truck and pulled them down. This took place in BFE Victoria county so nobody knows what really happened.

[cactusflinthead 27606]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Fantastic article, well worth the read.  

Link to this one in there

https://disorderup.substack.com/p/moby-dick-is-a-useless-guide-to-polling?publication_id=1332463&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=email-share&isFreemail=true&triedRedirect=true

Ingesting polls feels like an opportunity to define a variable: who will win the election? This tendency, I think, was exacerbated in 2008, when two things happened: a majority of the country wanted a change after the Bush years, and a guy blogging under the handle Poblano (later revealing himself as Nate Silver) started to make predictions, based on polling and demographic analysis, so accurate that they suggested some kind of second sight. The people badly wanted something, and a wizard turned up out of nowhere and told them they would get it, and lo it was so.

There are other factors, of course, but I think most stem from those two, and 2008 ushered us into a new era of Celebrity Nerds Who Can Tell The Future.

Poblano.

Wait a damn minute. I FUCKING REMEMBER NOW. HE WAS ON THE GREAT ORANGE SATAN

https://www.washingtonpost.com/media/2023/04/25/nate-silver-fivethirtyeight-abc-layoffs/

Readers only knew him as “poblano.”

A baseball statistician by day, the mysterious writer started dipping his toes in the political waters in a data-filled Daily Kos blog post published at 2:10 a.m., Nov. 1, 2007, titled “HRC Electability in Purple States.”

 

https://www.dailykos.com/stories/2007/10/31/405019/-

Here is the headline: Clinton does a little better than Barack Obama and John Edwards in the Blue states.  There is little difference between the three candidates in Red states.  But Obama and Edwards do MUCH better than Clinton in Purple states.  Numbers below the break for the math wonks amongst us.

Feels like five lifetimes ago.

 

[C-Man 27285]

 

[Satchel 6949]

28 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

If you look closely, you can see butter and crumbs in the corners of his mouth.

[David Dennison 18951]

NM

Edited October 23 by David Dennison

[Horn Dog 9946]

1 hour ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

I have been traveling all afternoon and just got caught up on this thread.  Can anyone tell me where we landed on if it’s understandable for Muslims to vote for Trump and if he does win should we not feel bad for them?

In all seriousness, this Muslim discussion is the wrong way to look at it.  Anybody, whether they are white, black, Latino, Muslim, Jewish, LGBTQ, Asian, you name it that votes for Trump and if he wins deserves every fucking bad thing that happens to them.  While I will be sad for my country if that fuckstick becomes President again I will be happy that those Trump voters fucked around and found out.  The Latinos that voted for him end up getting deported, fuck em.  The Muslims that voted for him and then watch him help Bibi really commit genocide in Gaza and the West Bank, fuck em.  The LGBTQ people that vote for him and then have their rights stripped by the religious right, fuck em.  Every last person that votes for him deserves the worst in my mind and I hope they get it.  

Yup.  Only thing keeping me sane is that I will financially benefit from Trump’s tax policies.  Shit, if they can figure out some way of exclusively isolate the Trump voting browns, blacks, asians, arabs, LGTQ+, women, poors, etc for the upcoming FAFO rounds of deportation/forced pregnancies/ prosecutions/slave labor wages I may become a enthusiastic Trump supporter next few rounds.  If I am not allowed to feel no fucks for dumbasses who purposely vote against their own interests, then I sure as hell won’t feel bad for voting exclusively for my bank account.

[TexasEd 8077]

5 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Followed closely by a compulsion to order them to "stop playing grabass!"

I don't know what "grabass" is, exactly, but based on the voice-raised input I heard from many coaches over the years, it is apparently the most popular game in the world for males between the ages of 8 and 18, cuz they're playing it all the damned time.

I coach 11 year old boys soccer 

it’s a popular game 

as one of 4 boys born within 3 years of each other it was a common saying by my dad too. 

[cactusflinthead 27606]

45 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

can read audiences,

Kinda. He's losing his fastball. The act is getting tired and he can't see it. People are bored at his rallies. We had to invent the term 'sanewashing' because of his incessantly crazed pronouncements. He's not fooling everyone.

[F250 28826]

3 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

Yup.  Only thing keeping me sane is that I will financially benefit from Trump’s tax policies.  Shit, if they can figure out some way of exclusively isolate the Trump voting browns, blacks, asians, arabs, LGTQ+, women, poors, etc for the upcoming FAFO rounds of deportation/forced pregnancies/ prosecutions/slave labor wages I may become a enthusiastic Trump supporter next few rounds.  If I am not allowed to feel no fucks for dumbasses who purposely vote against their own interests, then I sure as hell won’t feel bad for voting exclusively for my bank account.

Uh, this is a little fucked up.

You pretty much just said.

Quote

Shit, if they can figure out some way of exclusively isolate the browns, blacks, asians, arabs, LGTQ+, women, poors, etc for the upcoming FAFO rounds of deportation/forced pregnancies/ prosecutions/slave labor wages I may become a enthusiastic Trump supporter next few rounds.

 

[Chopper 17287]

2 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

If I am not allowed to feel no fucks for dumbasses who purposely vote against their own interests, then I sure as hell won’t feel bad for voting exclusively for my bank account.

What you may not understand is -- besides his stated giveaways with tax cuts -- his policies will fuck the economy hard, kill residential real estate values, and significantly increase inflation. And that's just a start. If that somehow helps your bank account, then I guess you're bullet proof. 

[Derka 6371]

1 hour ago, HOOKEM4 said:

Whelp, that seals the deal for me. This killer clown is voting blue! *Slams faygo into the ground* Lets goooo!!! WHOOP WHOOP!!!

fify my ninja.

[Chopper 17287]

"He's promising corruption."

 

[Tuco 5084]

2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

I wasn't sure the context on that.

Quote

“Certainly the former president is in the far-right area, he’s certainly an authoritarian, admires people who are dictators — he has said that. So he certainly falls into the general definition of fascist, for sure," Kelly said.

Kelly, who first joined the Trump administration as homeland security secretary and later was White House chief of staff from July 2017 until early 2019, also said Trump had spoken positively about Adolf Hitler.

“He commented more than once that, you know, that Hitler did some good things, too,” Kelly said.

NBCNews

 

 

[henrygandorf 29195]

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

 

damn issues in Williamson co and Tarant, sure sure lmao

rumor is it’s karma, pass it on. 

[atomheartbevo 89824]

2 hours ago, F250 said:

Rich kids that drive a KIA?

Tell me you've never been to Missouri, without telling me you've never been to Missouri.

[atomheartbevo 89824]

2 hours ago, HOOKEM4 said:

Whelp, that seals the deal for me. This killer clown is voting blue! *Slams faygo into the ground* Lets goooo!!!

You kids are adorable.

[atomheartbevo 89824]

NSIAP

 

[Satchel 6949]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

Kinda. He's losing his fastball. The act is getting tired and he can't see it. People are bored at his rallies. We had to invent the term 'sanewashing' because of his incessantly crazed pronouncements. He's not fooling everyone.

This. I’m not convinced he’s all that great at reading audiences when you check out the audiences he’s reading.

[atomheartbevo 89824]

1 hour ago, cactusflinthead said:

Kinda. He's losing his fastball. The act is getting tired and he can't see it. People are bored at his rallies. We had to invent the term 'sanewashing' because of his incessantly crazed pronouncements. He's not fooling everyone.

11 minutes ago, Satchel said:

This. I’m not convinced he’s all that great at reading audiences when you check out the audiences he’s reading.

Oh he's definitely losing it but I think he still knows just enough to be dangerous in motivating his base to get out and vote.

He's too fucking stupid to know when to quit specific attacks that run out of steam, no denying that - he should have moved on from the pets bullshit long ago when it was proven to be false, but he still knows how to play to the fears of a chunk of his base.  He'll run back to the Venezuelans taking over all of Colorado, but he's having a helluva time staying focused on where he's at and what he's doing, so he goes back to the "safe" targets like Haitians and Venezuelans.

And he clearly doesn't realize that a lot of his audience is either getting paid, or is there to take a selfie at the rally and then go home and go to bed.

[Slacks 6870]

Anecdotal... I spoke to some men today - just a few, but enough... different races, education levels, economics. They were all in Texas, so no EC effect, but it wasn't even close. I was surprised. 

Generally speaking, I don't think presidents change my life, so... I'm not concerned, but feel I should be.

 

Edited October 23 by Slacks

[bluto 4943]

2 hours ago, Slacks said:

Anecdotal... I spoke to some men today - just a few, but enough... different races, education levels, economics. They were all in Texas, so no EC effect, but it wasn't even close. I was surprised. 

Generally speaking, I don't think presidents change my life, so... I'm not concerned, but feel I should be.

 

Not close which way 

[tx 3 putt 77535]

 

[Js1 85602]

2 hours ago, bluto said:

Not close which way 

Yeah. That was the vaguest fucking shit I’ve read on here 

“I talked to some people and some things were said”

[Js1 85602]

There has been nothing to indicate these huge swings. TIPP is pretty bad if they somehow found another 4 point swing, but to the left this time. But I do wonder if we start seeing movement to an actual Harris winning result the next few week so they can claim to be “right”