2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Chuckie Finster 22694]

 

I mean this genuinely, how do we function as a society when we have people like Vance openly stating that he wants to eliminate the WAY HIS WIFE BECAME A CITIZEN and there’s no pushback, no news stories, no controversy. Just business as usual and follow the cult leader at all costs.

[G650 14243]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There has been nothing to indicate these huge swings. TIPP is pretty bad if they somehow found another 4 point swing, but to the left this time. But I do wonder if we start seeing movement to an actual Harris winning result the next few week so they can claim to be “right”

Its wild you say that, I was actually pondering that exact thing on my way to work

[ConferenceRoom 6141]

5 hours ago, Slacks said:

Generally speaking, I don't think presidents change my life, so... I'm not concerned, but feel I should be.

 

2 hours ago, bluto said:

Not close which way 

 

16 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah. That was the vaguest fucking shit I’ve read on here 

“I talked to some people and some things were said”

They all went for Trump. 

[horncyclist 1387]

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/10/22/us/politics/john-kelly-trump-fitness-character.html

Kelly going on the record to agree Trump is a fascist, confirm and elaborate on other deplorable things Trump has said, including repeated Hitler admiration. Trump’s threat to use the military against Americans prompted the longest serving Trump chief of staff to come out on the record. 
 

Why is this not an all caps headline by the New York Times?

Why doesn’t Kelly going on Sixty Minutes or something? If he cares enough to speak up, make sure people hear you.

 

 

 

[SydneyCarton 48056]

36 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah. That was the vaguest fucking shit I’ve read on here 

“I talked to some people and some things were said”

I interpreted it as he was surprised how many men were voting for Harris. So yeah, no one knows what he’s talking about. Slacks you fuck. 

Edited October 23 by SydneyCarton

[HenryJames 66038]

25 minutes ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I mean this genuinely, how do we function as a society when we have people like Vance openly stating that he wants to eliminate the WAY HIS WIFE BECAME A CITIZEN and there’s no pushback, no news stories, no controversy. Just business as usual and follow the cult leader at all costs.

They could have written an article with the headline 'Take My Wife, Please!'

[ConferenceRoom 6141]

7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I interpreted it as he was surprised how many men were voting for Harris. So yeah, no one knows what he’s talking about. Slacks you fuck. 

Look, man, I speak jive.

[Dbeasy 15042]

Interesting that stocks that favor Trump are moving with the supposed trends towards a Trump win. 
 

 

[Dahobbs 17526]

18 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

I interpreted it as he was surprised how many men were voting for Harris. So yeah, no one knows what he’s talking about. Slacks you fuck. 

Men in Texas would be voting for Trump is the weirdest thing to be surprised about, but that is how I read it. 

[Dahobbs 17526]

1 minute ago, Dbeasy said:

Interesting that stocks that favor Trump are moving with the supposed trends towards a Trump win. 
 

 

That's stupid. There is only one Trump stock. And the people that buy it are either pumping and dumping or cult members. 

[dieucla98 2942]

In Charlotte today - Uber driver had to put on Fox and friends. As annoying as it was, it's pretty easy to see why so many people fall for their pitch. If you're just mindlessly listening and not thinking critically (and without a memory longer than a goldfish), it all sounds kinda great. And unfortunately, mindless, not critical, and short memory are the hallmarks of a large portion of this country. 

[Hank Kingsley 20906]

4 minutes ago, dieucla98 said:

In Charlotte today - Uber driver had to put on Fox and friends. As annoying as it was, it's pretty easy to see why so many people fall for their pitch. If you're just mindlessly listening and not thinking critically (and without a memory longer than a goldfish), it all sounds kinda great. And unfortunately, mindless, not critical, and short memory are the hallmarks of a large portion of this country. 

 

[babysdaddy 2719]

I interpreted it as he was surprised how many men were voting for Harris. So yeah, no one knows what he’s talking about. Slacks you fuck. 

He said no EC impact so clearly for Trump.

[Js1 85280]

2 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

He said no EC impact so clearly for Trump.

Men voting for Trump, in Texas?!?!?!?!

Wow, I am so shocked.  Breaking news from Slacks there.

[RomaVicta 29902]

7 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

NSIAP

 

Man, that was good. Never heard of her. She's now on the radar.

 

7 hours ago, Slacks said:

Anecdotal... I spoke to some men today - just a few, but enough... different races, education levels, economics. They were all in Texas, so no EC effect, but it wasn't even close. I was surprised. 

Generally speaking, I don't think presidents change my life, so... I'm not concerned, but feel I should be.

 

Generally, there have been times when that was true. Presidents haven't done much if anything to fundamentally change how the country work or the principles of the republic. Things are different now.

 

1 hour ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I mean this genuinely, how do we function as a society when we have people like Vance openly stating that he wants to eliminate the WAY HIS WIFE BECAME A CITIZEN and there’s no pushback, no news stories, no controversy. Just business as usual and follow the cult leader at all costs.

Every tweet quoting or showing a tape of Trump either saying he is dangerous tyrant or babbling incoherently should be headline news daily in the story about the threat of America going fascist.

He stole and distributed critical national secrets. He incited an insurrection. He took in tens of millions (at the very least) from foreign entities while president. 

Well, everybody already knows that. Let's talk about the perception of Trump by uninformed idiots in a cafe which we'll broaden into general, stupid assumptions about the voters and how hopelessly polarized our country is. Then we'll guess about the impact on voters in the swing states. Again.

I can't listen to NPR and their knowingly bemused delivery of shit they don't get. I particularly hate their "abortion rights is a big issue in Nevada, so we sat down with four women to talk about it..." 

Lazy as fuck. What are women doing? Are illicit abortionists on the rise? What has happened to the once legal abortion operations? Is there polling information about women who support abortion bans? Is it purely religious?

Nah, we'll go with a heartfelt chat. 

Edited October 23 by RomaVicta

[SydneyCarton 48056]

5 minutes ago, babysdaddy said:

He said no EC impact so clearly for Trump.

 

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Men voting for Trump, in Texas?!?!?!?!

Wow, I am so shocked.  Breaking news from Slacks there.

The other way to interpret that is that it's Texas, so men voting for Harris won't have any electoral impact. So, yeah, I took it the other way. 

Fucking Slacks. 

[Js1 85280]

I was looking for something like this, and I'll probably repost it on Election Day

https://medium.com/@tcb.dna/what-early-reporting-counties-can-tell-us-about-the-2024-election-74fa50662cbb

tldr; there's a handful of counties in KY and IN (the 2 states where polls close first) that will tell us a lot.  If these counties shift left at all, even half a percent, a good night for Harris.  A small shift right - a long night/week.  A decent shift right - ugh, start drinking. 

Edited October 23 by Js1

[Ghost of LL 15531]

1 hour ago, Dbeasy said:

Interesting that stocks that favor Trump are moving with the supposed trends towards a Trump win. 
 

 

Ok--I'm just going to tell you one thing right now as someone who (1) has been peripherally involved in politics for 30 years, and (2) is married to someone who was in financial services for 25 years, finance people don't know or understand shit about politics.  They don't understand how Congress works.  They don't understand how regulatory agencies work.  They know nothing of rulemaking or legislating or lobbying.  And they damned sure know nothing about electoral politics.

 

Which is really quite funny, given how much Members of Congress seem to understand finance based on their average portfolio.

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

14 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

 

 

Every tweet quoting or showing a tape of Trump either saying he is dangerous tyrant or babbling incoherently should be headline news daily in the story about the threat of America going fascist.

He stole and distributed critical national secrets. He incited an insurrection. He took in tens of millions (at the very least) from foreign entities while president. 

 

Yeah, those things aren't important in a leader, but have you not seen the price of eggs and milk?  Also, the leftist liberals want to turn our boys into girls at school when we aren't looking.  It has to be true because I heard it on Fox News. These are the things important to the ignorant masses.

Edited October 23 by Beantown Express 2.0

[locodos 5387]

16 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Couple things:

Thing one: Stein is almost certain to overperform Harris. That said, I expect the spread to be tighter, and I think it’s very possible both Harris and Robinson could overperform their Election Day polling average in North Carolina for different reasons.
 

Thing two: Over the last four elections,  national polling averages have been off ~3 points (which isn’t much) and swing state polls have missed by 3-4.  In 2008 and 2012, Obama overperformed. In 2016 and 2020, Trump overperformed.

in BOTH cases the miss largely comes down to assumptions about the makeup of the electorate. 
So the assessment at this stage boils down to:

1) are the polls exactly right?

2) if not, who is being under/over weighted in the models, and 

3) who do they vote for?

The norf cakalaki hillbillies are enraged and incensed that the US government hasn't rebuilt their houses, roads, and bridges yet.  Some of them didn't even have food or water given to them (checks notes) the day after the storm they were warned about for days in advance.  They think their hurricane relief funds (totally not socialist) have been given to Ukraine!

They weren't going to vote for Kamala, but the storm made things worse for her there.

15 hours ago, Serak The Preparer said:

Look there's a thread for talking about 8-man rural Nebraska football and this isn't it. Get you shit together dipshitman.

 

14 hours ago, Surly Bevo said:

The past is littered with people who followed their conscience.  Robert E Lee for example.

History will be the judge.

Hey and they should have hung Lee like he was Arnold fucking Palmer

[Beantown Express 2.0 6559]

2 minutes ago, locodos said:

The norf cakalaki hillbillies are enraged and incensed that the US government hasn't rebuilt their houses, roads, and bridges yet.  Some of them didn't even have food or water given to them (checks notes) the day after the storm they were warned about for days in advance.  They think their hurricane relief funds (totally not socialist) have been given to Ukraine!

They weren't going to vote for Kamala, but the storm made things worse for her there.

 

Hey and they should have hung Lee like he was Arnold fucking Palmer

If the Democrats were smart, they would just use their power to control the weather and send tornadoes to that part of NC and aim them at all the voting sites so those people can't vote.  Between that and their secret voting machine codes that turn Trump votes into Harris votes they should be able to win NC.  

[Biff Tannen 45665]

15 minutes ago, Js1 said:

ugh, start drinking. 

This is pretty much my plan regardless.

[Biff Tannen 45665]

18 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

The other way to interpret that is that it's Texas, so men voting for Harris won't have any electoral impact. So, yeah, I took it the other way. 

Fucking Slacks. 

@Slacks how about some clarification?

[SydneyCarton 48056]

20 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I was looking for something like this, and I'll probably repost it on Election Day

https://medium.com/@tcb.dna/what-early-reporting-counties-can-tell-us-about-the-2024-election-74fa50662cbb

tldr; there's a handful of counties in KY and IN (the 2 states where polls close first) that will tell us a lot.  If these counties shift left at all, even half a percent, a good night for Harris.  A small shift right - a long night/week.  A decent shift right - ugh, start drinking. 

One of you quants needs to book mark this site and get back to us around 7:30 pm on election night please. No one wants me doing math. 

[Reynolds Woodcock 4739]

Yes, Slacks, our lives are hanging on this anecdote. We need to know whether to dismiss it out of hand only as further evidence as to how lost Texas is, or cling to it as a data point for how far reaching Kamala is!

[BamaATL 16593]

Georgia over night data dump takeaways:

1.  1.936 million have now voted.  (A bit lower than the news reported last night, I'll give them a bit of leeway).  

2.  1.522 million voted early in 2020

3.  Women now outpaces men in voting by 214k or 55.3 to 44.2%

4.  Election day voters from 2020 represent 110k of the turnout or 5.7%

5.  2020 non voters represent 304k or 15.7%

So where are the non 2020 voters coming from?

Democratic Strongholds - Bibb County 2.2k

Chatham County - 10k

Clayton County - 6.4k

Cobb County - 22k

Dekalb County - 20k

Fayette County - 5k

Fulton County - 39k

Gwinnett County - 23k

Muscogee County - 4.8k

Richmond County - 3.4k

So of the new votes, regardless of demographics, 133k come from major democratic strongholds.  (This obviously doesn't include every Democratic county - there are 159 total county here, just the major ones).  Based on that, my guess is that at least 50% of the 2020 nonvoters are in Democratic areas. 

 

[Hank Kingsley 20906]

Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

[SydneyCarton 48056]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Georgia over night data dump takeaways:

1.  1.936 million have now voted.  (A bit lower than the news reported last night, I'll give them a bit of leeway).  

2.  1.522 million voted early in 2020

3.  Women now outpaces men in voting by 214k or 55.3 to 44.2%

4.  Election day voters from 2020 represent 110k of the turnout or 5.7%

5.  2020 non voters represent 304k or 15.7%

So where are the non 2020 voters coming from?

Democratic Strongholds - Bibb County 2.2k

Chatham County - 10k

Clayton County - 6.4k

Cobb County - 22k

Dekalb County - 20k

Fayette County - 5k

Fulton County - 39k

Gwinnett County - 23k

Muscogee County - 4.8k

Richmond County - 3.4k

So of the new votes, regardless of demographics, 133k come from major democratic strongholds.  (This obviously doesn't include every Democratic county - there are 159 total county here, just the major ones).  Based on that, my guess is that at least 50% of the 2020 nonvoters are in Democratic areas. 

 

[Pancho 44712]

I’m starting to think it was Rogan who told the Harris folks “no” and not the other way around.

I also blame Rogan for last Saturday.

[Biff Tannen 45665]

2 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

Yep.  It could be video evidence of him killing babies and it wouldn't matter.  We are through the looking glass.

Just now, Pancho said:

I’m starting to think it was Rogan who told the Harris folks “no” and not the other way around.

I also blame Rogan for last Saturday.

I blame him for most things.

[Js1 85280]

9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

One of you quants needs to book mark this site and get back to us around 7:30 pm on election night please. No one wants me doing math. 

Earlier than that, bro.  Those states close at 6pm CT (full or partially).  That shit needs to pinned/bumped at 5:59pm.

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Georgia over night data dump takeaways:

1.  1.936 million have now voted.  (A bit lower than the news reported last night, I'll give them a bit of leeway).  

2.  1.522 million voted early in 2020

3.  Women now outpaces men in voting by 214k or 55.3 to 44.2%

4.  Election day voters from 2020 represent 110k of the turnout or 5.7%

5.  2020 non voters represent 304k or 15.7%

So where are the non 2020 voters coming from?

Democratic Strongholds - Bibb County 2.2k

Chatham County - 10k

Clayton County - 6.4k

Cobb County - 22k

Dekalb County - 20k

Fayette County - 5k

Fulton County - 39k

Gwinnett County - 23k

Muscogee County - 4.8k

Richmond County - 3.4k

So of the new votes, regardless of demographics, 133k come from major democratic strongholds.  (This obviously doesn't include every Democratic county - there are 159 total county here, just the major ones).  Based on that, my guess is that at least 50% of the 2020 nonvoters are in Democratic areas. 

 

Okay, but how does this compare to @Slacks anecdotal conversation? 

[Red Five 40845]

4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

Spill it. Who gives a shit if you can't confirm it. Trump and Vance are out there making up as much bullshit as possible and people are believing it.

[South Austin 52454]

4 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

Mark Halperin fighting for relevance.

[Js1 85280]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

Halperin won't publish it because his employer would never allow it (Newsmax)

Like bro, Game Change came out 14 years ago - you aren't relevant anymore.  No one credible sits on a huge news story in October FOR A WEEK that could upend a presidential race.  He could break that story, if it existed, and start his next book, if it was real. 

[SydneyCarton 48056]

3 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

Hey fuckhead, you've had a fucking week to vet the story. Either fucking publish, or don't mention it becuase you can't confirm it. Clearly other outlets are having the same struggle. 

[SydneyCarton 48056]

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I’m starting to think it was Rogan who told the Harris folks “no” and not the other way around.

I also blame Rogan for last Saturday.

If Rogan was smart, he'd let Trump on first, and then he'd bring on Harris 2 days later. 

[Js1 85280]

2 hours ago, G650 said:

Its wild you say that, I was actually pondering that exact thing on my way to work

TIPP moves 4 points to Harris +2
Economist (YouGov) Harris +3
Morning Consult Harris +4
Ipsos Harris +2
The Times of London (YouGov) Harris +3

The only "bad" poll that came out yesterday was Redfield & Winton with Trump +2, but that's right wing Tory garbage. 

[Hank Kingsley 20906]

I tend to roll my eyes when celebrities talk politics, and while this is not a new thought by any means, Keaton is absolutely correct. It mystifies me how Trump supporters don't see this. 

 

[TexArcher 37767]

2 hours ago, Chuckie Finster said:

I mean this genuinely, how do we function as a society when we have people like Vance openly stating that he wants to eliminate the WAY HIS WIFE BECAME A CITIZEN and there’s no pushback, no news stories, no controversy. Just business as usual and follow the cult leader at all costs.

And they have everyday Americans talking this way.  A buddy of mine taken in by Fox News talks openly about closing the border completely.  He's the son of an immigrant himself.  When I point that out, he just says it's different now, man.

Fox News has created a completely malleable mob.  They will believe, and they will do, whatever they are told.

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

TIPP moves 4 points to Harris +2
Economist (YouGov) Harris +3
Morning Consult Harris +4
Ipsos Harris +2
The Times of London (YouGov) Harris +3

The only "bad" poll that came out yesterday was Redfield & Winton with Trump +2, but that's right wing Tory garbage. 

Is there a way to see an aggregate of the polls that remove left and right leaning pollster?

[Js1 85280]

16 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

there are 159 total county here,

I used to think Texas was ridiculous with 254 counties, until I learned Georgia has 159 counties with 19 million fewer people and Virginia with 133 with 2 million fewer people than Georgia. 

And somehow Kansas has 105 counties with only 2.9 million people! Illinois has 3 fewer counties and 10 million more residents than Kansas. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

43 minutes ago, Js1 said:

I was looking for something like this, and I'll probably repost it on Election Day

https://medium.com/@tcb.dna/what-early-reporting-counties-can-tell-us-about-the-2024-election-74fa50662cbb

tldr; there's a handful of counties in KY and IN (the 2 states where polls close first) that will tell us a lot.  If these counties shift left at all, even half a percent, a good night for Harris.  A small shift right - a long night/week.  A decent shift right - ugh, start drinking. 

How can someone track county by county results in real time on election day?  

[Js1 85280]

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Is there a way to see an aggregate of the polls that remove left and right leaning pollster?

A few. Split Ticket is really my favorite of the aggregators - they're the most transparent in their methodology. 

While not excluding all right/left leaning pollsters, ST does remove 2 of the worst in ActiVote and Trafalgar, and they, unlike other aggregators like RCP, do weigh based on quality of the polling company. 

https://split-ticket.org/2024-presidential-polling-averages/

 

[Js1 85280]

2 minutes ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

How can someone track county by county results in real time on election day?  

Turn on your TV and watch Steve Kornaki geek out and change his khakis once an hour? 

[RomaVicta 29902]

38 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Yeah, those things aren't important in a leader, but have you not seen the price of eggs and milk?  Also, the leftist liberals want to turn our boys into girls at school when we aren't looking.  It has to be true because I heard it on Fox News. These are the things important to the ignorant masses.

 You're right, my friend.

[YChang 3443]

20 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I’m starting to think it was Rogan who told the Harris folks “no” and not the other way around.

I also blame Rogan for last Saturday.

Second I saw his face immediately thought… “oh noooo” 

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

23 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

Whatever this story is would be in an out of the news in less than 5 minutes. Regarding Trump, nothing matters anymore. 

 

“I’ve been pitched a story about Donald Trump now for about a week, that if True, would end his campaign.” but I'm going to sit on the story until months after the election and put it in my next book.

[BamaATL 16593]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

TIPP moves 4 points to Harris +2
Economist (YouGov) Harris +3
Morning Consult Harris +4
Ipsos Harris +2
The Times of London (YouGov) Harris +3

The only "bad" poll that came out yesterday was Redfield & Winton with Trump +2, but that's right wing Tory garbage. 

So the Democratic Presidential turnout last time around was 81.1 million, while the Republican turnout was 74.2 million or 52.2% to 47.7%, so basically a 4.5% spread.  The real question here, as far I am concerned is, where is Trump actually picking up votes to close this gap?  I don't see it, turnout is extraordinarily high, everywhere.  However, even if you were to get into slanted distribution going the Republican way (which isn't happening), in order for Trump to reasonably close the gap to say 2% would required significant unequal distribution of almost 5 million votes, and if distribution is moderate but still in Republican favor, the total number of votes needed to close that number goes up dramatically.  So basically, it becomes the stuff of unicorns, like Trump picking up 10 million votes against last time against a turnout increase of 14 million (that's not happening).  

There is only one side here with enthused turnout, and yet the polls would have us believe this has narrowed?  This is bumpkiss.  The electoral college is a fickle bitch, so there is still a path for Republicans, but the idea that the national popularity contest has narrowed by any significant margin is nonsense.  

[jimmyjazz 45888]

53 minutes ago, Js1 said:

start drinking. 

Start?