2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Fudge Nuggets 19276]

10 minutes ago, TexArcher said:

They will believe, and they will do, whatever they are told.

I saw a bumper sticker a couple of weeks ago that said "If they can get you to believe absurdities, they can get you to commit atrocities."  

[Fudge Nuggets 19276]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Turn on your TV and watch Steve Kornaki geek out and change his khakis once an hour? 

Yeah, but the chances of him covering this particular list of counties in a timely manner is not great.

[South Austin 52686]

12 minutes ago, Hank Kingsley said:

I tend to roll my eyes when celebrities talk politics, and while this is not a new thought by any means, Keaton is absolutely correct. It mystifies me how Trump supporters don't see this. 

 

Whatever it takes . . . .

[Red Five 41066]

Just now, South Austin said:

Whatever it takes . . . .

270, 271....

[Js1 85744]

Just now, BamaATL said:

So the Democratic Presidential turnout last time around was 81.1 million, while the Republican turnout was 74.2 million or 52.2% to 47.7%, so basically a 4.5% spread.  The real question here, as far I am concerned is, where is Trump actually picking up votes to close this gap?  I don't see it, turnout is extraordinarily high, everywhere.  However, even if you were to get into slanted distribution going the Republican way (which isn't happening), in order for Trump to reasonably close the gap to say 2% would required significant unequal distribution of almost 5 million votes, and if distribution is moderate but still in Republican favor, the total number of votes needed to close that number goes up dramatically.  So basically, it becomes the stuff of unicorns, like Trump picking up 10 million votes against last time against a turnout increase of 14 million (that's not happening).  

There is only one side here with enthused turnout, and yet the polls would have us believe this has narrowed?  This is bumpkiss.  The electoral college is a fickle bitch, so there is still a path for Republicans, but the idea that the national popularity contest has narrowed by any significant margin is nonsense.  

Well if the polls are allegedly ensuring Trump voters get counted more in polling than Harris voters, that's why. 

But there is the possibility of Trump closing the PV gap by winning more votes in safe blue states like CA/NY that don't flip them, but losing the electoral college because Harris still wins MI/PA/WI.  But that is basing a lot on 2022, when the GOP did better than expected in CA/NY, and worse than predicted in the Midwest. 

1 minute ago, Fudge Nuggets said:

Yeah, but the chances of him covering this particular list of counties in a timely manner is not great.

NYT/DDHQ/Politico usually have pretty good statewide maps where you can click on specific counties. 

Oh that reminds me, I am guessing The Needle will be back for Election Day.  Can't wait......

[Firemans4Horn 18302]

3 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

So the Democratic Presidential turnout last time around was 81.1 million, while the Republican turnout was 74.2 million or 52.2% to 47.7%, so basically a 4.5% spread.  The real question here, as far I am concerned is, where is Trump actually picking up votes to close this gap?  I don't see it, turnout is extraordinarily high, everywhere.  However, even if you were to get into slanted distribution going the Republican way (which isn't happening), in order for Trump to reasonably close the gap to say 2% would required significant unequal distribution of almost 5 million votes, and if distribution is moderate but still in Republican favor, the total number of votes needed to close that number goes up dramatically.  So basically, it becomes the stuff of unicorns, like Trump picking up 10 million votes against last time against a turnout increase of 14 million (that's not happening).  

There is only one side here with enthused turnout, and yet the polls would have us believe this has narrowed?  This is bumpkiss.  The electoral college is a fickle bitch, so there is still a path for Republicans, but the idea that the national popularity contest has narrowed by any significant margin is nonsense.  

Electoral college bro.  It came down to a few thousand votes in a few states 4 years ago. And 8 years ago. And most likely this year. 

[David Dennison 19117]

2 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

Electoral college bro.  It came down to a few thousand votes in a few states 4 years ago. And 8 years ago. And most likely this year. 

Backward country is backward.

[Js1 85744]

There’s going to be a lot of shocked Pikachu faces about Nevada this year considering the automatic voter registration law that went into effect a few years ago automatically registers you unaffiliated unless you choose otherwise. Because they are primary young voters being labeled independent as soon as they turn 18

The demographics of the independent voters, especially in Vegas, heavily favor Harris. Young voters increasingly don’t want to affiliate with either party formally, but we all know they vote primarily Democrat 

[RomaVicta 30072]

For what it's worth, my last shot at persuading people on Facebook. If anyone finds it useful, you're welcome to use any part of it.

[The Dog 44180]

11 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

So the Democratic Presidential turnout last time around was 81.1 million, while the Republican turnout was 74.2 million or 52.2% to 47.7%, so basically a 4.5% spread.  The real question here, as far I am concerned is, where is Trump actually picking up votes to close this gap?  I don't see it, turnout is extraordinarily high, everywhere.  However, even if you were to get into slanted distribution going the Republican way (which isn't happening), in order for Trump to reasonably close the gap to say 2% would required significant unequal distribution of almost 5 million votes, and if distribution is moderate but still in Republican favor, the total number of votes needed to close that number goes up dramatically.  So basically, it becomes the stuff of unicorns, like Trump picking up 10 million votes against last time against a turnout increase of 14 million (that's not happening).  

There is only one side here with enthused turnout, and yet the polls would have us believe this has narrowed?  This is bumpkiss.  The electoral college is a fickle bitch, so there is still a path for Republicans, but the idea that the national popularity contest has narrowed by any significant margin is nonsense.  

there was an article about this a while back - it's Trump picking up some support in Democratic strongholds like NY and CA. 

To use a recruiting analogy - he's "filling up on bread." These changes won't have an impact on the outcome.

[Gatorubet 30391]

30 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

If Rogan was smart…,

[Bateshorn 9944]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There’s going to be a lot of shocked Pikachu faces about Nevada this year considering the automatic voter registration law that went into effect a few years ago automatically registers you unaffiliated unless you choose otherwise. Because they are primary young voters being labeled independent as soon as they turn 18

The demographics of the independent voters, especially in Vegas, heavily favor Harris. Young voters increasingly don’t want to affiliate with either party formally, but we all know they vote primarily Democrat 

I'll take all the copium you got. 

[Js1 85744]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

there was an article about this a while back - it's Trump picking up some support in Democratic strongholds like NY and CA. 

To use a recruiting analogy - he's "filling up on bread." These changes won't have an impact on the outcome.

Filling up on bread is almost a perfect analogy 

[Js1 85744]

Just now, Bateshorn said:

I'll take all the copium you got. 

There’s a reason unaffiliated is now the largest voting demo in NV. And unaffiliated mail returns in Clark are now second to the Dems 

[troph 24923]

10 hours ago, Horn Dog said:

Yup.  Only thing keeping me sane is that I will financially benefit from Trump’s tax policies.  Shit, if they can figure out some way of exclusively isolate the Trump voting browns, blacks, asians, arabs, LGTQ+, women, poors, etc for the upcoming FAFO rounds of deportation/forced pregnancies/ prosecutions/slave labor wages I may become a enthusiastic Trump supporter next few rounds.  If I am not allowed to feel no fucks for dumbasses who purposely vote against their own interests, then I sure as hell won’t feel bad for voting exclusively for my bank account.

did you really just say that?  the quiet part out loud?

jesus johnny.

[Gatorubet 30391]

I saw that one stat about an increase of 248% among African-American women voters in…Georgia was it?  Yeah, they are disaffected Democrats voting for Trump..

[Valmy77 13431]

7 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There’s going to be a lot of shocked Pikachu faces about Nevada this year considering the automatic voter registration law that went into effect a few years ago automatically registers you unaffiliated unless you choose otherwise. Because they are primary young voters being labeled independent as soon as they turn 18

The demographics of the independent voters, especially in Vegas, heavily favor Harris. Young voters increasingly don’t want to affiliate with either party formally, but we all know they vote primarily Democrat 

Yeah but the young people have to show up to vote.

Granted less of a concern in Presidential elections than the other ones.

[Bozo_Casanova 26670]

8 hours ago, Slacks said:

Anecdotal... I spoke to some men today - just a few, but enough... different races, education levels, economics. They were all in Texas, so no EC effect, but it wasn't even close. I was surprised. 

Generally speaking, I don't think presidents change my life, so... I'm not concerned, but feel I should be.

 

It’s true. Men in Texas are not responding well to the 12oz roll or sage blend. There are indications that until the 16oz roll is returned to market they will go back to making their own sausage like they did thirty years ago, despite agreeing that it’s not as good.

[The Dog 44180]

 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2853]

21 hours ago, Podrick's Magic Cock said:

If Trump wins this I'm rooting for a meteor, nukes flying, or the Yellowstone caldera to pop off.  What's the point of living if all these terrible people are in positions of power?  People suck.

Lando Calrissian is my role model for when the going gets tough and the assholes take over.  Going to get by until my time comes to strike.   

if only just to use the line "hello what have we here?" just once before I die.  I've come so close but I never have the balls.

[Bateshorn 9944]

5 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It’s true. Men in Texas are not responding well to the 12oz roll or sage blend. There are indications that until the 16oz roll is returned to market they will go back to making their own sausage like they did thirty years ago, despite agreeing that it’s not as good.

Is this some gay subcode?  Because....it feels like it. 

[The Original Greaser Bob 2853]

Just now, The Dog said:

 

Is that bad?  

It's bad, isn't it?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

16 minutes ago, The Dog said:

To use a recruiting analogy - he's "filling up on bread." 

To use a fishing analogy, his "shoelaces are tied together."

[Bateshorn 9944]

1 minute ago, The Original Greaser Bob said:

Is that bad?  

It's bad, isn't it?

It doesn't feel good.  What doesn't make sense to me is how Nevada is so out of line with PA and GA. Straight Crazy pills. 

[Js1 85744]

7 minutes ago, The Dog said:

 

For reference, the non-Clark/Washoe parts of NV were about 180k votes out of 1.4 million total statewide. Clark is almost a million by itself and Washoe is a quarter million.

GOP will run out of rural votes pretty quickly 

rurals at 24% of 2020

Washoe at 19%

Clark at 24%
 

Edited October 23 by Js1

[atomheartbevo 90041]

52 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Okay, but how does this compare to @Slacks anecdotal conversation? 

Well, you see, the restraining order between Hall and Oates comes into play.

Hold on, let me workshop that a bit and get back to you.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2853]

10 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It’s true. Men in Texas are not responding well to the 12oz roll or sage blend. There are indications that until the 16oz roll is returned to market they will go back to making their own sausage like they did thirty years ago, despite agreeing that it’s not as good.

If my wife wasn't a plump, stocky gal we might could do on the 12 oz roll.

[Pato del Muerto 52853]

12 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It’s true. Men in Texas are not responding well to the 12oz roll or sage blend. There are indications that until the 16oz roll is returned to market they will go back to making their own sausage like they did thirty years ago, despite agreeing that it’s not as good.

How’s a guy supposed to feed a family of 4 with a 12 oz roll?

[tx ind 7014]

A voting machine in NW Harris County just got the big D.  Considered wearing my 11 year old daughter’s Taylor Swift shirt but decided against it as I didn’t have time to fight off all the trim that would be getting moist because my gut sticking out.

 

[atomheartbevo 90041]

20 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

For what it's worth, my last shot at persuading people on Facebook. If anyone finds it useful, you're welcome to use any part of it.

Very similar to the argument I made on Facebook this morning, except for some strange reason, your argument doesn’t mention Arnold Palmer’s cock.  Not even once.

[Bozo_Casanova 26670]

3 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It doesn't feel good.  What doesn't make sense to me is how Nevada is so out of line with PA and GA. Straight Crazy pills. 

It’s the Big Sort at work. NV and GA are sprinting in opposite directions. Nevada is moving towards Florida. The crazy thing is that Arizona is moving the other way from NV, just more slowly. 

Edited October 23 by Bozo_Casanova

[Js1 85744]

Former RNC chair Michael Steele

Michael Steele, the former Republican Party chairman who is strongly anti-Trump but has retained his GOP registration, agrees that some of these polls are gamed. “I know they are,” he said. “I’ve talked to enough people on this side of the street to know they are.” The way it’s done, he says, is that “you find different ways to weight the participants, and that changes the results you’re going to get.” That’s a striking allegation coming from such a longtime senior GOP insider.

Steele also shares some of the same worries as Rosenberg, Bonier, and others—that pro-Trump pollsters are feeding a perception of a Trump lead to provide his allies a way to blame a Trump loss on a rigged election. “They’re gamed on the back end so MAGA can make the claim that the election was stolen,” he said.

Stuart Stevens, the anti-Trump former Republican pollster, agreed. “Their game plan is to make it impossible for states to certify. And these fake polls are a great tool in that, because that’s how you lead people to think the race was stolen,” Stevens said. All manner of postelection mischief-making, and maybe even political violence, would be thus justified.

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Nevada is moving towards Florida.

Dems haven’t lost NV at the presidential level in 20 fucking years. Hang on a bit there with the hyperbole. 

[RomaVicta 30072]

1 minute ago, atomheartbevo said:

Very similar to the argument I made on Facebook this morning, except for some strange reason, your argument doesn’t mention Arnold Palmer’s cock.  Not even once.

It's in the subtext. His cock is the subtext in all of my posts.

To quote the Donald:

He's got one of those great big ones! Yuge!

[Born to Run 6582]

20 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

It’s true. Men in Texas are not responding well to the 12oz roll or sage blend. There are indications that until the 16oz roll is returned to market they will go back to making their own sausage like they did thirty years ago, despite agreeing that it’s not as good.

We got big women to feed!

[Bozo_Casanova 26670]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Dems haven’t lost NV at the presidential level in 20 fucking years. Hang on a bit there with the hyperbole. 

Understood, but in my opinion Nevada is both the most likely Biden state to flip this cycle. 

[RomaVicta 30072]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Former RNC chair Michael Steele:

Michael Steele, the former Republican Party chairman who is strongly anti-Trump but has retained his GOP registration, agrees that some of these polls are gamed...

 “They’re gamed on the back end so MAGA can make the claim that the election was stolen,” he said.

Stuart Stevens, the anti-Trump former Republican pollster, agreed. “Their game plan is to make it impossible for states to certify. And these fake polls are a great tool in that, because that’s how you lead people to think the race was stolen,”

I'm not Omar in this scenario:

[Js1 85744]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Understood, but in my opinion Nevada is both the most likely Biden state to flip this cycle. 

That’s fine. It’s not “racing right” though. It went from 2.42 in 2016 to 2.39 in 2020. Florida moved nearly 2 points right in that same time

[Red Five 41066]

Seems unlikely that she would need the 6 from Nevada to push her over 270. I guess a weird combination of swing state results could in theory do it. Just the thought of it being that close just raised my blood pressure.

[Bateshorn 9944]

I just want one Democratic Landslide in my life time.  And I don't count 96. 

I'm jealous of you fuckers that got to enjoy LBJ in 64

Edited October 23 by Bateshorn

[Js1 85744]

Just now, Bateshorn said:

I just want one Democratic Landslide in my life time.  And I don't count 96. 

I'm jealous of you fuckers that got to enjoy LBJ in 64

Unless and until the MAGA collapses into itself, 2008 might be the best some of us will get for a while 

[Red Five 41066]

I think 2008 was called while I was still eating dinner. Best we'll get for a long time.

[Js1 85744]

Just now, Red Five said:

I think 2008 was called while I was still eating dinner. Best we'll get for a long time.

And yet as polls were closing, the for profit media was speculating we weren’t sure what the outcome would be. Lol

[NAVY 6834]

Gifting WaPo article to y’all

https://wapo.st/3Yy8gvv

[Bozo_Casanova 26670]

10 minutes ago, Js1 said:

That’s fine. It’s not “racing right” though. It went from 2.42 in 2016 to 2.39 in 2020. Florida moved nearly 2 points right in that same time

I wouldn’t say either are racing rightward politically. I would say they are moving in the same direction culturally, and voting Republican is semi-symptomatic.
Not sure exactly what to call that direction. 

Edited October 23 by Bozo_Casanova

[Huckleberry 33519]

Just now, Bozo_Casanova said:

I wouldn’t say either are racing rightward politically. I would say they are moving in the same direction culturally. Not sure exactly what to call that direction. 

Cousin Eddie?

[Bozo_Casanova 26670]

45 minutes ago, Js1 said:

There’s going to be a lot of shocked Pikachu faces about Nevada this year considering the automatic voter registration law that went into effect a few years ago automatically registers you unaffiliated unless you choose otherwise. Because they are primary young voters being labeled independent as soon as they turn 18

The demographics of the independent voters, especially in Vegas, heavily favor Harris. Young voters increasingly don’t want to affiliate with either party formally, but we all know they vote primarily Democrat 

Inshallah!

[wildcat09 29453]

7 minutes ago, NAVY said:

Gifting WaPo article to y’all

https://wapo.st/3Yy8gvv

Can't wait for the media to completely fail in its responsibility to inform Americans that the GOP's plan is very obviously to use bullshit polls to justify a refusal to accept the loss and attempt to steal it again.  

[Red Five 41066]

That's a pretty weak plan, TBH. I hope that's the worst of what we see. "but but the polls"

[Aqua Buddha 14653]

Just now, Red Five said:

That's a pretty weak plan, TBH. I hope that's the worst of what we see. "but but the polls"

Especially since the Secretary of State in almost every important state is a Democrat.  GA being the exception and they've already told Trump to fuck off and will again.

[Js1 85744]

3 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Inshallah!

Careful, Stephen Miller just flagged this for your deportation