2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Bozo_Casanova 26474]

22 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Who's the best Wisconsin pundit? Feels like the least-discussed swing state

I am. What would you like to know. 

1 minute ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

i've got some excellent news for you.

 

also, interesting quote from Nate Silver's NYT opinion today:

 

While I’m not ready to call my shot, I don’t think the winning candidate will win fewer than 5. 

[chainsaw 9870]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What would you like to know. 

Is she doing well there? What can she do to lock it up?

[aggie08 21504]

Nate Silver apparently doesn't know what "sweep" means.

[jimmyjazz 45970]

Color me very skeptical that Michigan went 46/49 Harris/Trump to 49/46 in two weeks.

[Firemans4Horn 18082]

The polling‘s been 50-50 for so long that Nate Silver is writing fan fiction to keep his paid subscribers hooked. 
 

yesterday he did a deep dive into what is wrong with Kamala’s website. 

[Doc Sam Beckett 5793]

16 minutes ago, immamac said:

you sound like sydneycarton here 

[Pancho 44856]

 

[Red Five 40861]

9 minutes ago, henrygandorf said:

[SydneyCarton 48108]

11 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Cue the republicans bitching about the Hatch Act  something something can't use government resources.

Edited October 23 by SydneyCarton

[Bateshorn 9928]

3 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Queue the republicans bitching about the Hatch Act  something something can't use government resources.

Didn't Trump do the RNC Acceptance speech from the fucking South Lawn of the WHite House? 

[Js1 85372]

 

[The Royal We 3072]

10 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

JFC, why did I glance at the replies!?

[SydneyCarton 48108]

Just now, Bateshorn said:

Didn't Trump do the RNC Acceptance speech from the fucking South Lawn of the WHite House? 

Yeah. And Trump violated the Hatch Act almost weekly/monthly the last 18 months of his presidency. That's how I know they're going to start bitching about it. 

[LCHorn 2620]

55 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Harris taking Texas would turn up the election cheating shit to 13. There absolutely would be violence. 

And yet, it would be worth it.  

[Pig Bellmont 8719]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

If someone is saying it will end his campaign I think it has something to do with straight up insurrection or activity that involved a foreign enemy. Racism doesn't matter and no one things it will end his campaign. 

Whatever it is people are vetting the shit out of it. 

I also think anything older than a year or 2 is not going to move the needle. This has to be a very recent and very current thing for it to be campaign ending. 

I’m not convinced anything will end his campaign other than death. His chief of staff came out with how he wants Hitler’s generals and that hasn’t made anyone bat an eyelash 

[Js1 85372]

1 minute ago, Pig Bellmont said:

I’m not convinced anything will end his campaign other than death. His chief of staff came out with how he wants Hitler’s generals and that hasn’t made anyone bat an eyelash 

We wouldn’t know he died until November 6. They’d hide it and just release body double pictures of him writing a speech again 

[Horn Dog 9875]

4 hours ago, troph said:

did you really just say that?  the quiet part out loud?

jesus johnny.

You did see the "IF YOU COULD ISOLATE THE TRUMP VOTING" part of the sentence right?  The listing the various minority/discriminated groups was not a "quiet our loud" statement, but rather to highlight individuals in groups voting for incredibly bad things that will directly affect them,  which they have every right to do, but I have a right to not feel bad for their subsequent consequences (again if those consequences could be isolated ONLY to trump voters). Now obviously you can't actually isolate the TRUMP VOTING portion of those groups, and there will be many more innocents in those groups who will suffer if his policies are actually enacted which I obviously could never support, so it was really just theoretical that probably should have just been left in my thoughts instead of posted.  I am sure the point will get lost, and the statement will be viewed as a bigoted comment, but it was simply a expression of frustration of incredibly ill informed members of our electorate. 

[NAVY 6747]

36 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

I hope the bombshell is a video of him shitting his pants, walking around with shit spilling over the back of his pants, dripping out his pants legs, while he makes jokes about "dirty messicans" and "filthy immigrants" and "shithole countries". 

 

 

 

 

 

Yes. His supports at rallies should shit their pants in support. In fact, all dotard supporters should walk around with shit in their pants. All hail poop! 
 

Their In Group can be like the star belly sneeches but with shit in pants 

[safe sex 11735]

3 hours ago, Helobious said:

You have a generation of young people now more worried about pronouns and having female leads in movies than about improving their lives and their communities. 

What a ridiculous thing to believe

[4th&Five 41558]

Just now, safe sex said:

What a ridiculous thing to believe

[Bozo_Casanova 26474]

36 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Is she doing well there? What can she do to lock it up?

She’s doing as well as possible considering the makeup of the state and not much.

it comes down to turnout in Milwaukee and Madison, and keeping her few voters in the rural areas from being demoralized by their local majority. I suppose she could offer undecided voters a hot tub party with Mark Chmura, but unless his views have changed since his public encounter with high school girls the criminal justice system he’s a Trump supporting Republican, go figure.

Edited October 23 by Bozo_Casanova

[Chewbacca 7780]

2 hours ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

firewall inventor guy revises to say Ds should feel good at 500K now instead of 390K.

Where are they now?

[hookem2010 2624]

400k/356k

[hookem2010 2624]

400k/500k for D + expected Indys

356k/390k for straight D over R advantage

Edited October 23 by hookem2010

[Chewbacca 7780]

5 hours ago, Pancho said:

I’m starting to think it was Rogan who told the Harris folks “no” and not the other way around.

I also blame Rogan for last Saturday.

Rogan was also in the McLaren garage on Sunday.  You might be on to something.

[Pato del Muerto 52508]

13 minutes ago, Js1 said:

We wouldn’t know he died until November 6. They’d hide it and just release body double pictures of him writing a speech again 

I doubt an announcement of his death would change much. Between the ones that won’t believe it and the one that will vote the R ticket anyway, that’s all of his votes. If anything it might suppress Harris voters as they take a deep breath and figure it’s a lock. 

[TwiceHorn 31493]

23 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Didn't Trump do the RNC Acceptance speech from the fucking South Lawn of the WHite House? 

Just for the record, the Hatch Act excludes the President and Vice President from its prohibitions.

[Pancho 44856]

1 minute ago, TwiceHorn said:

Just for the record, the Hatch Act excludes the President and Vice President from its prohibitions.

[SydneyCarton 48108]

4 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Just for the record, the Hatch Act excludes the President and Vice President from its prohibitions.

It's semantics. They're still going to bitch about it. 

[Brisketexan 105154]

4 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Just for the record, the Hatch Act excludes the President and Vice President from its prohibitions.

But the Hatch Chile Act only excludes pussy-ass midwesterners and yankees from engaging in the deliciousness that is green chile grits, green chile pork stew, green chile cheeseburgers.  Can't handle spice?  you don't even DESERVE to be a swing state.

[The Dog 44060]

 

[troph 24813]

24 minutes ago, Horn Dog said:

You did see the "IF YOU COULD ISOLATE THE TRUMP VOTING" part of the sentence right?  The listing the various minority/discriminated groups was not a "quiet our loud" statement, but rather to highlight individuals in groups voting for incredibly bad things that will directly affect them,  which they have every right to do, but I have a right to not feel bad for their subsequent consequences (again if those consequences could be isolated ONLY to trump voters). Now obviously you can't actually isolate the TRUMP VOTING portion of those groups, and there will be many more innocents in those groups who will suffer if his policies are actually enacted which I obviously could never support, so it was really just theoretical that probably should have just been left in my thoughts instead of posted.  I am sure the point will get lost, and the statement will be viewed as a bigoted comment, but it was simply a expression of frustration of incredibly ill informed members of our electorate. 

sorry didn't see that. I apologize.

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

firewall guy says 1.95M total likely.  If current rates of return end up getting us to 1.95, you end up with this:

1188430 D

569416.3 R

192153.7 I

D - R + .4 I = 695,875 firewall.  That seems so easy beyond the 500k firewall needed that i wonder if i'm doing something wrong. 

 

(".4" I based on assumed 70-30 D split on I's.  even a 50-50 split on I's gives you 619,013 firewall)

[Bateshorn 9928]

2 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

But the Hatch Chile Act only excludes pussy-ass midwesterners and yankees from engaging in the deliciousness that is green chile grits, green chile pork stew, green chile cheeseburgers.  Can't handle spice?  you don't even DESERVE to be a swing state.

Tangentially related, I had a Dutch dude two weeks ago tell me their mustard meant they could handle spice. 🤣

[TwiceHorn 31493]

5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

It's semantics. They're still going to bitch about it. 

No doubt, always nice to have a ready reply.

[Pancho 44856]

 

[Gatorubet 30246]

36 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

[Js1 85372]

Just now, Pancho said:

 

Madison and Milwaukee gonna win it for Harris.  Even more so if the WOW counties vote like they did earlier this year with the referendums. 

[tx 3 putt 76987]

Just now, Js1 said:

Madison and Milwaukee gonna win it for Harris.  Even more so if the WOW counties vote like they did earlier this year with the referendums. 

 

those milwaukee burbs really really do not like black people 

[Pancho 44856]

 

[4th&Five 41558]

 

[heso 2809]

2 hours ago, Red Five said:

Seems unlikely that she would need the 6 from Nevada to push her over 270. I guess a weird combination of swing state results could in theory do it. Just the thought of it being that close just raised my blood pressure.

Nevada comes into play if Trump wins Arizona. If Trump wins Arizona, assuming Harris wins WI & MI, Harris cant win with GA or NC alone. They only get her to 267. In the scenario her winning NV & Trump winning AZ, she can win with any one of PA, NC, or GA. 

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

7 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

firewall guy says 1.95M total likely.  If current rates of return end up getting us to 1.95, you end up with this:

1188430 D

569416.3 R

192153.7 I

D - R + .4 I = 695,875 firewall.  That seems so easy beyond the 500k firewall needed that i wonder if i'm doing something wrong. 

 

(".4" I based on assumed 70-30 D split on I's.  even a 50-50 split on I's gives you 619,013 firewall)

Never mind the above.

"If current rates of return" is the issue.  The current rates can't continue until 1.95 M are returned.  You'd end up with more D ballots returned than issued.  

[HenryJames 66082]

5 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

How tall is he?

[Js1 85372]

2 minutes ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

those milwaukee burbs really really do not like black people 

They are and have been the most stubborn suburbs in the country.  

Just now, HenryJames said:

How tall is he?

6'8 lol

[High Plains Drifter 11050]

1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

re: the bombshell, there is absolutely nothing that is "campaign ending", so people (journos) need to stop being drama queens. the election is in 13 days, millions of votes are out. if campaign ending means he's going to lose, well there's a pretty good chance of that happening anyway.

anything that is audio of him or even video (grainy) of him will be dismissed as a deep fake, and honestly should be at this point. i don't even want something like that dropping, because it'll be more noise and make maga angry. we need maga docile and stupid and sitting in the corner jerking off to shitty polls.

the only story that would move the needle is something about him selling state secrets, and i'm not even sure how that gets proven, because most of us already assumed he was doing that. dude stole classified documents and hid them and refused to give them back for months and months and still has some and nobody even fucking talks about it anymore. he called kamala a "shit vp" at a rally a few days ago and nobody even covered it.

it would have to involve "selling out america" and probably would need to include russia or china. so whatever that looks like, that's what this is. and whatever it is would barely get media attention because trump.

once he loses, it'll trickle out, and people will say little, because at this point, who gives a shit.

 

Counterpoint: Fuck 'em, let 'em froth. 

 

[heso 2809]

1 hour ago, SydneyCarton said:

I think the right wing media is already at battle stations becuase whoever has this shit was shopping it for a payday, and Trump declined. 

Then it can’t sink him. If it could and he was offered to pay to make it go away, Elon would have bought it. 

[Brisketexan 105154]

13 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Tangentially related, I had a Dutch dude two weeks ago tell me their mustard meant they could handle spice. 🤣

Yeah.  They're fucking pathetic.  When my daughter lived in Sweden, her flatmates would bitch about her cooking because it used a lot of onions and "onions are spicy."  Pathetic.

5 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Whatever.  Laws don't apply to billionaires, especially white ones.  Late-stage capitalist oligarchy out front shoulda told ya.

[Huckleberry 32976]

7 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

May be? Sounds like they'll get around to figuring it out in a couple of years. Thanks, Merrick.

[Js1 85372]

9 minutes ago, heso said:

Nevada comes into play if Trump wins Arizona. If Trump wins Arizona, assuming Harris wins WI & MI, Harris cant win with GA or NC alone. They only get her to 267. In the scenario her winning NV & Trump winning AZ, she can win with any one of PA, NC, or GA. 

Yep, she's at 251 if she wins MI/WI.  Then she needs:

PA  (exactly 270)
GA + NC (283)
One of GA/NC + AZ (278)
NV + any one of PA/NC/GA (273-276) 

Edited October 23 by Js1