2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[G650 14246]

2 hours ago, Underdog said:

Would you want to? 

[Bullneck 19073]

Good Morning!

 

 

 

Edited October 24 by Bullneck

[Chad Fuck 17662]

Normal stuff.

So fucking weird

[BamaATL 16593]

Rise and Shine, time for some hopium.  

Georgia over night data takeaways:

1.  2.16 million ballots cast (2020 early voting was 2.3 million, with a week to go, we are going to fly past that number).  

2.  Females have now cast 240k more votes than men.  55.4% to 44.1%

3.  Day of election voters from 2020 represent 128k votes or 6% (likely Republican bump, but certainly doesn't explain turnout)

4.  2020 Non voters represent 344k, 18-29 103k, 65+ 75k

5.  Fortress Atlanta Update:

Clayton County - 48k or 23%

Cobb County - 163k or 28%

Dekalb County - 157k or 27%

Fulton County - 250k or 28%

Gwinnett County - 162k or 25%

 

Very strong numbers, the likely bump in Republican early voting is pretty muted in comparison to other turnout, which is pretty much all favorable to Democrats.  Yesterday both my wife and I got calls to get people to the polls (first time it's happened for either of us, we thought it'd be more, but we got them there).  

 

[Underdog 28585]

50 minutes ago, G650 said:

It would mean you died and went to Hell. 

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

9 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, according to bozo, and this sounds pretty rational, in highly competitive industries like groceries, they are in a fairly constant price war and eventually that will cause prices to return to "normal."

Fast food is going through this right now. It's sad when you can go to a Chili's, Applebees, etc and get a better quality meal for the price some of these fast food joints are pricing themselves to. 

[locodos 5387]

10 hours ago, Biff Tannen said:

Excuse me, she has to be PERFECT.  Otherwise, I just don't know who to vote for.

Listen, she should have thought about all that before making so much melanin and not growing a cock in the womb.

10 hours ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

And companies can’t really lower prices now because their employees have all received wage increases that won’t come down. And they also have suppliers who won’t drop their prices. We had craziness for a couple of years but prices have now stabilized.

 

 There is a lot more to it... namely shareholders & stock buy backs

9 hours ago, Bullneck said:

Hold onto your hats.  We have dodged a baguette ullet:

 

 

 

9 hours ago, TeeDubya said:

1. I can hear this gif
2. He's Swedish and you know it!

[BamaATL 16593]

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Fast food is going through this right now. It's sad when you can go to a Chili's, Applebees, etc and get a better quality meal for the price some of these fast food joints are pricing themselves to. 

I'm a bit concerned about you, tbh.  You used the word quality positively in the same sentence as Chili's and Applebees.  

[Yev Kassem 1031]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I'm a bit concerned about you, tbh.  You used the word quality positively in the same sentence as Chili's and Applebees.  

The new Chili’s smash burger is fucking great. And at $10.99!

[Nice Guy Eddie 13509]

1 hour ago, Bullneck said:

Good Morning!

 

 

 

If he wins and she’s nominated, at least she will get grilled by the Dems in the senate.

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

5 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

I'm a bit concerned about you, tbh.  You used the word quality positively in the same sentence as Chili's and Applebees.  

When you're comparing the burger you can get at Applebees and Chili's to that of McDonalds and etc it is far better quality.

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

Allan Lichtman predicts Kamala win

 

Quote

WASHINGTON - With less than two weeks to go until the election, voters are paying close attention to the multitude of polls coming out across the political landscape. 

Many of the national polls show Vice President Kamala Harris with a narrow lead over former President Donald Trump. But polling in key battleground states shows Trump moving ahead or locked in a dead heat with Harris. 

With Trump and Harris seemingly neck-and-neck in the race, some are starting to look at early voting data to determine which direction the election will swing. 

One of those people is expert historian and American University professor Allan Lichtman. He has called the winner of nearly every presidential election since the 1980s and made his final prediction saying Vice President Kamala Harris will win the 2024 election back in September.

Lichtman bases his predictions on what he calls the 13 Keys to the White House. After Harris secured a majority of his keys, Litchman announced she was the candidate most likely to win the race just days before the presidential debate. 

Two weeks out, he says he stands by the decision.

Allan Lichtman shares his prediction in the 2024 presidential election

In a NYT Opinion video released Thursday morning, Lichtman says he believes Vice President Kamala Harris will win the race for the White House this November.

In weekly livestreams on YouTube, Litchman has covered a variety of topics related to the election and recently, including the recent polls.  

"Polls give this idea of drama, that candidates are sprinting ahead and falling behind every day based on the events of the campaigns and the pollsters keep score," he said. 

Litchman says he notoriously doesn’t rely on polls to make predictions and that the current numbers are too far within the margin of error to be useful. 

"Anyone who’s followed me knows the margin of error ain’t +/-3% — that’s pure statistical error. Add on all the non-statistical error — non-response, people lying, people changing their minds, not getting likely voters right — and it’s at least double," Lichtman said. "So the real error is at least +/- 6%. So you need a gap of 12 points before it’s not noise." 

Lichtman says when it comes to polls and surveys, he estimates "at least a 10% falloff from those who claim they are going to vote on Election Day."

In some of his recent livestreams, Lichtman has instead been looking at new early voting data provided through an NBC News dashboard. He says this data provides a more tangible look at the direction the race is headed in. 

"These are real votes. These are votes in the bank," Lichtman said. "These votes are much more valuable than those who say ‘oh yeah, I’m going to vote on Election Day.’ Well, they may or may not." 

FILE - Official absentee ballot issued in Washington, D.C. on Tuesday, October 11, 2022. (Bill Clark/CQ-Roll Call, Inc via Getty Images)

As of Oct. 23, NBC tallied over 23.6 million votes cast in-person and by mail nationally. Their data shows that 44% of these votes were cast by registered Democrats, 38% cast by registered Republicans and 18% by others. 

Lichtman notes that while the data shows the party affiliation of the voters, there’s no way to know if they voted in line with their party. However, he says this data can provide some early insights into each candidate's favorability by state.

Here’s which way early in-person and mail-in voters appear to be leaning in each battleground state: 

Georgia- Leaning Republican

Michigan- Leaning Democratic

North Carolina- Split nearly evenly

Pennsylvania- Leaning Democratic

Arizona- Leaning Republican

Wisconsin- Leaning Democratic

Nevada- Leaning Republican

Litchman says of these states, he believes Republicans will need to secure Georgia and North Carolina if they expect to win. 

"Georgia is very much a state that’s up for grabs in this election," Lichtman said. "The truth is Republicans have to win Georgia. Democrats win Georgia the odds are overwhelming that they’re going to win the election because they are stronger than the Republicans in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan. Republicans really need North Carolina and Georgia — two states that are very much up in the air." 

 

[Bateshorn 9927]

10 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If he wins and she’s nominated, at least she will get grilled by the Dems in the senate.

I think it’s adorable that you don't think the Robert’s Court will waive away the Speech and Debate Clause and let him lock up lawmakers. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26438]

9 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Well, according to bozo, and this sounds pretty rational, in highly competitive industries like groceries, they are in a fairly constant price war and eventually that will cause prices to return to "normal."

Well, no. At most basic level market clearing price of a commodity represents equilibrium between the money seeking to be exchanged for apples/diapers/cheerios whatever and the amount of those things available. But as consumers we don't interacts directly with that. We work with middlemen who aggregate goods we want, dress them up, merchandise them with other things that we may want but don't know about yet, along with substitutional goods, invest in staff and physical plant close to where we are, and branding to make us feel good about paying a tiny markup for working with them instead of the other middlemen. The more competitive it is, the tinier it gets, and the strongest competitors are often the ones who can charge the highest mark-up (which is one way to measure the value of the brand)  but choose to sell undifferentiated commodities at wholesale or even below wholesale cost to atract customers. 

None of that means prices will do gown. The only think that forces prices down is either less money chasing a thing or more things relative to the money chasing them

8 hours ago, royiv said:

Don’t tariff my French wines! Texas wines are shit!

Texas Cab Franc, Viognier, Albarinho and Mouvedre are all excellent. 

7 hours ago, bluto said:

Godspeed making sense of this bullsh either way

 

I suspect those LV screens are coming from the delta between Trump voters who say they voted for Trump in 2020 vs Harris voters who say they didn't vote in 2020.  Zero concern about that. Put it on the pile.

[Pancho 44721]

6 hours ago, bluto said:

Nevada is not pretty currently unless the rurals just all decided to vote early. Gonna be a steep uphill climb based on ralstons blog. 

Dems have more room to grow

 

[Js1 85297]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

Dems have more room to grow

 

I like Ralston, but it’s clear Clark is updating overnight after he does his blog. And the reporting issues in both Clark and Washoe are annoying.

NPA having more votes than the GOP isn’t great for Trump, since the NPA voters are more likely to be younger or POCs

[HenryJames 66038]

26 minutes ago, Yev Kassem said:

The new Chili’s smash burger is fucking great. And at $10.99!

Better than Sonic's?

[HenryJames 66038]

21 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Allan Lichtman predicts Kamala win

The guy from Die Hard?

 

11 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Texas Cab Franc, Viognier, Albarinho and Mouvedre are all excellent. 

Also Rioja.

[locodos 5387]

28 minutes ago, Yev Kassem said:

The new Chili’s smash burger is fucking great. And at $10.99!

Ok Chili's bot settle down.

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

3 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Better than Sonic's?

My only complaint about Sonic's is that it doesn't get crispy enough or at least the two Sonic's I tried it from didn't get it that way.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3270]

4 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Better than Sonic's?

I'll take ways to give yourself diarrhea for 200, Alex

[DDD Dad 14331]

On 10/21/2024 at 4:28 PM, Gatorubet said:

Your detailed treatise on your complex political thoughts was breathtaking. 

[Bateshorn 9927]

17 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

 

Texas Cab Franc, Viognier, Albarinho and Mouvedre are all excellent. 

[Js1 85297]

Also it may have been missed last night - 

The Republican mayor of Waukesha, Wisconsin endorsed Kamala.  Kind of a big deal, as Waukesha is in one of the WOW suburbs of Milwaukee that are stubbornly red.  Waukesha County went to Trump by 20 points, but Biden did win most of Waukesha, the city.

But if he can help push Waukesha a little bluer, that will help Harris a lot 

[Yev Kassem 1031]

19 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Better than Sonic's?

Yes, because I prefer grilled onions instead of raw. YMMV

[Pescado_Rojo 19416]

14 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The good ones don't use Texas grown grapes. 

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

53 minutes ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If he wins and she’s nominated, at least she will get grilled by the Dems in the senate.

 

And with a R senate, boy won't that make a difference.

 

 

[royiv 9275]

37 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Texas Cab Franc, Viognier, Albarinho and Mouvedre are all excellent. 

 

25 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Also Rioja.

[Derka 6159]

 

[Bateshorn 9927]

7 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

The good ones don't use Texas grown grapes. 

Texas gives off strong “stick to the whites” wine vibes (As does Virginia).  
 

TBC: that’s not a compliment.

[elfenix 34227]

chili's "smash" burger is just a slightly more compressed regular burger, not an actual smash burger, and then vastly overcooked so that the whole thing is an inedible hockey puck. should have gotten a regular oldtimer.

[Red Five 40847]

12 minutes ago, Derka said:

 

"You start out saying you have to vote for Trump because of Hillary Clinton"

I made this point to someone the other day. Remember how many people were like "No no, I don't want to vote for Trump, but I am made to because the other option is Hillary". Flash forward to now, and the last time Trump wasn't the republican nominee was 2012. 

[locodos 5387]

In blue Broward Fl, The Sun-Sentinel won't endorse a Presidential candidate.  Fuck them all

Quote

The South Florida Sun Sentinel has joined other major newspapers across the nation in not endorsing a candidate for president this year.

As the paper explained in an editorial previously posted by the newspaper's editorial board, the Sun Sentinel stopped endorsing candidates for president, U.S. Senate, and gubernatorial races in 2022 under a "company-wide decision" — roughly a year after the paper was acquired by Alden Global Capital, a hedge fund.

 

[texasdago 7569]

23 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

The good ones don't use Texas grown grapes. 

Wrong.  Ones that mix in grapes from other states suck.  Stick to local grapes... winemakers making huge leaps in Texas... but the good news is Greg Abbott will let all the water run out and we can try to grow, uh, raisins? 

[HenryJames 66038]

28 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

The good ones don't use Texas grown grapes. 

Then those aren't Texas wines. The good ones use grapes grown in the Texas High Plains AVA.

[BurntOrange&White 39930]

31 minutes ago, Pescado_Rojo said:

The good ones don't use Texas grown grapes. 

If they don't use majority Texas grown grapes then they can't be labeled a Texas wine. To be considered a Texas wine 75% of your grapes have to be grown in Texas.

Edited October 24 by BurntOrange&White

[atomheartbevo 89630]

2 hours ago, Bullneck said:

Good Morning!

 

 

 

 

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If he wins and she’s nominated, at least she will get grilled by the Dems in the senate.

I doubt she wants it - she would have to work a lot more.

She’s got a cushy lifetime gig in Florida now.

['stache 21801]

Sonic smasher is pretty darn good, but I did get it at the one “good” Sonic still in the area. Not cheap but less than Chilis and you can avoid the shame spiral from realizing you’re sitting at a table eating at fucking Chilis.

[texasdago 7569]

2 minutes ago, locodos said:

In blue Broward Fl, The Sun-Sentinel won't endorse a Presidential candidate.  Fuck them all

 

Hmmm...

Ownership: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/business/media/alden-newspaper-candidate-endorsements.html

Political donations: https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/alden-global-capital/summary?id=D000075626

Also 2022

Seems to me that they do indeed endorse candidates

Get ready for the 2020 lulz

[texasdago 7569]

2 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

If they don't use majority Texas grown grapes then they can't be labeled a Texas wine. To be considered a Texas wine 75% of your grapes have to be grown in Texas.

But the good ones actuall show the AVA and the vineyard.  If it says "Texas Wine" on the label, it is crap.  See the new labeling laws... that will probably be scrapped by Greg Abbott because giving people accurate information is woke and transgender!?!!?!? 

[Js1 85297]

1 minute ago, texasdago said:

Hmmm...

Ownership: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/business/media/alden-newspaper-candidate-endorsements.html

Political donations: https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/alden-global-capital/summary?id=D000075626

Also 2022

Seems to me that they do indeed endorse candidates

Get ready for the 2020 lulz

I fail to be surprised in the slightest 

[Evil Bill Obrien 3270]

7 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Then those aren't Texas wines. The good ones use grapes grown in the Texas High Plains AVA.

 

7 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

If they don't use majority Texas grown grapes then they can't be labeled a Texas wine. To be considered a Texas wine 75% of your grapes have to be grown in Texas.

 

4 minutes ago, texasdago said:

But the good ones actuall show the AVA and the vineyard.  If it says "Texas Wine" on the label, it is crap.  See the new labeling laws... that will probably be scrapped by Greg Abbott because giving people accurate information is woke and transgender!?!!?!? 

Surly Viticultural Talk not going away...

[texasdago 7569]

Just now, Evil Bill Obrien said:

 

 

Surly Viticultural Talk not going away...

I was tempted to talk about voting patterns in the Arab-American community in Michigan but felt this might be more palatable

[NAVY 6740]

30 minutes ago, elfenix said:

chili's "smash" burger is just a slightly more compressed regular burger, not an actual smash burger, and then vastly overcooked so that the whole thing is an inedible hockey puck. should have gotten a regular oldtimer.

How bout we all just eat our burgers at Posse East like the longhorns we are? 

[KYHorn 17017]

18 minutes ago, Red Five said:

"You start out saying you have to vote for Trump because of Hillary Clinton"

I made this point to someone the other day. Remember how many people were like "No no, I don't want to vote for Trump, but I am made to because the other option is Hillary". Flash forward to now, and the last time Trump wasn't the republican nominee was 2012. 

I think the best explanation of this is peoples' inability to remain in a state of cognitive dissonance or to live and think incongruently for very long. There's no homeostasis in "Trump is bad but I will vote for him": either Trump is good and voting for and supporting him is good, or Trump is bad and voting for and supporting him is bad. 

[Hank Kingsley 20908]

18 minutes ago, locodos said:

In blue Broward Fl, The Sun-Sentinel won't endorse a Presidential candidate.  Fuck them all

 

Dying medium can't give a significant portion of their subscribers a reason to cancel. This is where we are now. 

 

 

 

Edited October 24 by Hank Kingsley

[Red Five 40847]

4 minutes ago, KYHorn said:

I think the best explanation of this is peoples' inability to remain in a state of cognitive dissonance or to live and think incongruently for very long. There's no homeostasis in "Trump is bad but I will vote for him": either Trump is good and voting for and supporting him is good, or Trump is bad and voting for and supporting him is bad. 

Also they were lying.

[elfenix 34227]

7 minutes ago, NAVY said:

How bout we all just eat our burgers at Posse East like the longhorns we are? 

Kind of a far drive at this point

[locodos 5387]

12 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Hmmm...

Ownership: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/10/06/business/media/alden-newspaper-candidate-endorsements.html

Political donations: https://www.opensecrets.org/orgs/alden-global-capital/summary?id=D000075626

PSA:  If you're clicking a paywalled news link, click the link then quickly hit ctrl+p  Then you can read the article in the print preview or save it to a PDF.  

Fuck these assholes

[Underdog 28585]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

If he wins and she’s nominated, at least she will get grilled by the Dems in the senate.

All the Dems will imprisoned.