2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[cactusflinthead 27,598]

 

Edited October 25 by cactusflinthead

[Red Five 40,826]

I think he means "if actual," not that the actual result is that way. But regardless, I think that's more likely than either the polling average being exactly right or the pollsters underestimating Trumps base again. 
I'm not ready to call my shot, but that's my map if the election was held today. 

BTW - I don't think his shading is anything other than an artifact of setting the colors on the battleground states.

That’s my map on the prediction thread, with Arizona and Nevada flipped.

[BamaATL 16,593]

Just now, Red Five said:

That’s my map on the prediction thread, with Arizona and Nevada flipped.

I think you are pretty well spot on.  

[Dahobbs 17,522]

Just voted in Houston. Sheraton at 610 and 290 had no line. 10 minutes total to vote. 

[Bozo_Casanova 26,432]

12 minutes ago, G650 said:

Yes, I agree there will always be some. More that I mean that both parties are explicitly advocating against it now. I don't really see a laissez faire party.

Um, not sure about that. Other than the tarrifs I don't see a lot of light between Trump's  debt-financed fiscal stimulus for people at the top plus regulatory capture by cronies and Reagan/Bush 2's version of the same thing. The biggest difference is that Trump doesn't pretend that the revenue generated by the growth will exceed the cost of the the debt we incur to get it. He doesn't care at all. It's just a tax cut for it's own sake. Then they force interest rates down to suck the cash into asset prices and pretend that's not inflation. 

Edited October 25 by Bozo_Casanova

[Guadaloopy 10,954]

13 hours ago, StassneyHorn said:

The people who majored in a liberal arts major and didn’t dual or tri major are wastoids.

 

13 hours ago, SubliminalHorn said:

 

13 hours ago, David Dennison said:

 

13 hours ago, mchookem said:

 

 

13 hours ago, Thatguy said:

We should start a band.  Good thing for me the Navy didn't give a fuck as long as I had a BA at the end of four years.

I was also one who screwed up the FL requirement... big time.  I took French starting in 8th grade all through high school, and even spent a summer in France at a language school.  Thought I was hot shit.  Took the AP French exam and placed out of a ton of hours - don't recall exactly how many, but it ended up being 3 hours short of the LA FL requirement.  I ignored it until my last semester until I had no choice, meaning that I went 3-1/2 years without staying current with my French at all.  Because I had placed out of so many hours, I was forced to take a higher level class.  Being my last semester, I fucked off a lot and halfway through the semester found myself drowning in that French class.  I knew I blew the final, and as I turned it in pretty much begged the prof for a D so I could graduate the following week.  Prof said, "see you at commencement on Saturday."  

Now back to the topic of the thread... as big of an idiot and wastoid as I am, I was still able to sniff out Trump's bullshit back in 2011.   

[RDCanecutter 26,377]

56 minutes ago, trythisathome said:

Had a Trump supporting coworker tell me that "if Trump gets elected, it's gonna be the easiest time in history to get rich because the market is gonna go crazy."

Well, one of the easiest ways to make money is buying stuff cheap after the market crashes.

[Js1 85,260]

5 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Newspapers are dying. And yet they continue to whine why no one will pay subscription fees for them

[G650 14,229]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Um, not sure about that. Other than the tarrifs I don't see a lot of light between Trump's  debt-financed fiscal stimulus for people at the top plus regulatory capture by cronies and Reagan's version of the same thing. The biggest difference is that Trump doesn't pretend that the revenue generated by the growth will exceed the cost of the the debt we incur to get it. He doesn't care at all. It's just a tax cut for it's own sake. Then they force interest rates down to suck the cash into asset prices and pretend that's not inflation. 

Uh, other than those trifling things like tariffs? I would characterize that as earthshaking change for the Republican party. Not even throwing details like pulling us out of, you know, like NAFTA and shit.

 

Look, I don't disagree with the result, but the messaging from Republicans is something so out there that 20 years ago if you told me exactly what was going to happen I would have laughed in your face.

[6th Street 6,390]

Well I have no idea who to vote for now without the WaPo telling me

[RDCanecutter 26,377]

10 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

I wish I had waited to vote and picked up an Arnold Palmer t-shirt to wear in line.

I'm gonna dress as Scarlet O'Hara.

[High Plains Drifter 11,024]

22 hours ago, Longhorn94 said:

I don't know who needs to hear this but Kamala is going to fuck shit up and we are going to win this fucking election! It won't be close.

LFG!!!!!!!!!!!

 

I'll have what this guy is having, unless its Chili's. 

 

 

[jimmyjazz 45,879]

1 minute ago, Guadaloopy said:

I was also one who screwed up the FL requirement... big time.  I took French starting in 8th grade all through high school, and even spent a summer in France at a language school.  Thought I was hot shit.  Took the AP French exam and placed out of a ton of hours - don't recall exactly how many, but it ended up being 3 hours short of the LA FL requirement.  I ignored it until my last semester until I had no choice, meaning that I went 3-1/2 years without staying current with my French at all.  Because I had placed out of so many hours, I was forced to take a higher level class.  Being my last semester, I fucked off a lot and halfway through the semester found myself drowning in that French class.  I knew I blew the final, and as I turned it in pretty much begged the prof for a D so I could graduate the following week.  Prof said, "see you at commencement on Saturday."  

This hits close to home, as my daughter just dropped French as her minor at UT, essentially wasting a whole bunch of accumulated hours and costing me even more money.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,432]

3 minutes ago, G650 said:

Uh, other than those trifling things like tariffs? I would characterize that as earthshaking change for the Republican party. Not even throwing details like pulling us out of, you know, like NAFTA and shit.

 

Look, I don't disagree with the result, but the messaging from Republicans is something so out there that 20 years ago if you told me exactly what was going to happen I would have laughed in your face.

Fundamentally I see the tarriffs as another form of regulatory capture to favor well connected inbumbent interests. My point was that there was never any "there" there. The economic orthodoxy of that era was all just a kayfabe.  The tarriffs are just the mask coming all the way off.  Surprise, it's not wrestling it's "sports entertainment". 

Edited October 25 by Bozo_Casanova

[jimmyjazz 45,879]

2 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Well I have no idea who to vote for now without the WaPo telling me

Sure, but old guard media endorsements are kind of an important part of the process and an expectation of sorts.  Chickenshit move.  I will be canceling my subscription.  I don't read it much anyway these days.

[High Plains Drifter 11,024]

21 hours ago, wildcat09 said:

Nate Silver almost certainly has a large bet on Kamala winning and has been using his model to move the line in betting markets toward Trump to get him a bigger payout.

 

This is exactly correct. These gambling sites can't risk all the money going one way, because then they could get fucked over really hard. They need the betting to be more or less even both ways, that way no matter who wins or loses, they get their vig. If all the money is going one way, then the hype needs to move to the other way to balance they betting. 

 

[Js1 85,260]

 

[Horn Dogg 3,870]

I got out and did my part.  Voted for Kamala and against everything MAGA down the ticket.  

[closetohumping 17,433]

36 minutes ago, quigley said:

If this is obvious, I'm sorry I missed it. I'd love to learn this. Why are they across the street from each other so frequently? Are they going to become charging stations in the next decade?

Maybe in California 

[6th Street 6,390]

1 minute ago, jimmyjazz said:

Sure, but old guard media endorsements are kind of an important part of the process and an expectation of sorts.  Chickenshit move.  I will be canceling my subscription.  I don't read it much anyway these days.

Bezos clearly afraid of Trump seeking retribution  

[BurntOrange&White 39,930]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

Can they let Michigan branch know?

[Pato del Muerto 52,484]

1 minute ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Can they let Michigan branch know?

Also brickhorn. 

[jimmyjazz 45,879]

2 minutes ago, 6th Street said:

Bezos clearly afraid of Trump seeking retribution  

. . . AND I just discovered my annual sub auto-renewed last week.  Of course it did.

[G650 14,229]

4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Fundamentally I see the tarriffs as another form of regulatory capture to favor well connected inbumbent interests.

We will have to disagree up to a point on that. It certainly will pick winners and losers, but there's been violent shift in terms of what interests are protected. Going from protecting corporate interests to protecting rich guy interest are very different things, because they have markedly different results (and problems obviously). I can assure you it isn't in John Deere's interest to be called out and have no political cover to offshore their workforce.

In general we are looking for the same policy outcomes, so it isn't like I'm really having a massive disagreement, but the messaging from both parties is clearly miles away from what it was. No one is running on free trade right now.

[hornmpa96 2,618]

14 minutes ago, texasdago said:

Those German anti-secessionist genes are long gone.  It’s a bunch of transplants from elsewhere, most from Texas so they can create their own like MAGA fiefdom.

Even the legacy German families are all in on MAGA. My German/Texan ancestors voted against succession, hid Confederate “deserters” on our ranch, had some of those deserters ultimately hung on a tree on the ranch, maintained 100 years of dislike for our Lutheran neighbors because they suspected them of turning people in to the Confederacy, and voted for Republicans when Texas exited Reconstruction and many years afterward. At this point, they are almost exclusively Trump voters and it reflects the urban/rural divide in this country and way too many years of watching Fox News.

[Nice Guy Eddie 13,507]

1 hour ago, Helobious said:

What the hell does “firewall” mean in this context. I’ve seen it a lot

let me chatgpt that for you:

Quote

In political elections, a "firewall" refers to a region or group of voters a campaign relies on to secure enough votes to win, even if they lose ground elsewhere. For instance, a candidate might perform poorly in one set of states but has a "firewall" of reliably supportive states where they anticipate strong backing. If this firewall holds, it can compensate for losses in other areas and help maintain a viable path to victory.

Firewalls are especially relevant in close elections, where campaigns concentrate resources and effort to solidify support and prevent opponents from making inroads in key areas.

 

[BurntOrange&White 39,930]

1 minute ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

let me chatgpt that for you:

 

Helobious probably thought a firewall was trumps new plan for the border.

[quigley 1,556]

3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Daily Georgia EV data dump takeaways:

1.  2.369 million votes now cast

2. Women out pace men by 272k or 55.5% to 44%  (.4% growth from yesterday)

3.  2020 day of voters represent 149k or 6.3% of the total (.3% bump from yesterday)

4.  2020 non voters are 387k, young voters 18 - 29 outpace old ones 65+ by 35k

A little something different today, turn out by Democratic Congressional districts:

GA 2- 138k 25.6%

GA 4 - 138k 26.5%

GA 5 - 162k 26.1%

GA 6 - 182k 36.8%

GA 13 - 167k 27.3%

 

 

Thank you for the data.

Please tell me how you're interpreting it based on expectations and benchmarks.

[Bozo_Casanova 26,432]

2 minutes ago, G650 said:

Going from protecting corporate interests to protecting rich guy interest are very different things

But see, you're begging the question. I don't acccept the premise that they were in fact protecting corporate interests. I think there were and are specific interests associated with specific people that benefitted, and I'm sure to some people that looks like being pro-business or pro-capitalism, but it's not. 
The greatest danger to capitalism is not socialism, but rent-seeking. The greatest danger to American business is not overregulation but regulatory capture. 

[SimonBolivar 10,957]

4 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Helobious probably thought a firewall was trumps new plan for the border.

Well if you pretend climate change isn't real for long enough...

[BurntOrange&White 39,930]

corporations are people idiots. SCOTUS out front shoulda told ya

[The Dog 44,017]

3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Daily Georgia EV data dump takeaways:

1.  2.369 million votes now cast

2. Women out pace men by 272k or 55.5% to 44%  (.4% growth from yesterday)

3.  2020 day of voters represent 149k or 6.3% of the total (.3% bump from yesterday)

4.  2020 non voters are 387k, young voters 18 - 29 outpace old ones 65+ by 35k

A little something different today, turn out by Democratic Congressional districts:

GA 2- 138k 25.6%

GA 4 - 138k 26.5%

GA 5 - 162k 26.1%

GA 6 - 182k 36.8%

GA 13 - 167k 27.3%

 

 

what's normal turnout for those districts (for a pres election year)

[G650 14,229]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I don't acccept the premise that they were in fact protecting corporate interests. I think there were and are specific interests associated with specific people that benefitted, and I'm sure to some people that looks like being pro-business or pro-capitalism, but it's not. 

Well, this right here. I don't think these two sentences necessarily go together. Corporate interests do not equal pro business and pro capitalism. In fact, many times they are opposed.

There's been a huge shift in who's interests are being protect here. You obviously disagree and that is fine, but to me it's clear as day. You seem to be more focused on the outcome vis a vis other classes, but that's not what I'm talking about.

[SydneyCarton 48,053]

31 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

WaPo...one of the most political newspapers, and one of the last few that really does engaged political reporting...isn't going to endorse. 

The media apparatus is so fucking broken. I don't konw why this fucking me me hard, but I feel like I just got punched in the gut. Just sad AF. 

For Profit news needs to fucking end. 

[quigley 1,556]

2 hours ago, David Dennison said:

I really hope the outcome of this election ends the marriage between polling and the mainstream media.

But I know better.

Someone with a national platform who understands just a little math (Mark Cuban?) is going to have to embarrass the NYT by asking how they can extrapolate from a biased 2.5% response rate to a voting population.

[Js1 85,260]

2 minutes ago, The Dog said:

what's normal turnout for those districts (for a pres election year)

Districts got redrawn after 2020 so might be harder to figure that out 

[Surly Bevo 24,908]

Newspapers need to die. Worthless spineless hacks beholden to revenue and shareholder value rather than journalism. 

[DDD Dad 14,324]

13 hours ago, TwiceHorn said:

Ha, thanks.  I have no urge to hit you.  But same.  Except I don't drink.  Topo or club soda with lime.

California sober?  (Sorry, the wife and I just binged Nobody Wants This and that term tickled me).

 

[Pato del Muerto 52,484]

2 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Newspapers need to die. Worthless spineless hacks beholden to revenue and shareholder value rather than journalism. 

Dying industries do irrational things to hold on as long as possible.  They’re usually too late to pivot to whatever is replacing them to gain market share, so they suppress it as long as possible.

[DDD Dad 14,324]

38 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

"Democracy dies in darkness."

[SimonBolivar 10,957]

3 minutes ago, Surly Bevo said:

Newspapers need to die. Worthless spineless hacks beholden to revenue and shareholder value rather than journalism. 

That makes sense, but they're getting replaced with YouTube videos and TikTok's which are even worse.

[tx 3 putt 76,862]

25 minutes ago, Js1 said:

 

 

stephen miller is ready to deport as many naturalized muslim citizens as he can chase down 

all the imans for sure 

Edited October 25 by tx 3 putt

[David Dennison 18,841]

30 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

I'll have what this guy is having, unless its Chili's. 

[HenryJames 66,034]

51 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

As someone who a Boy Scout Leader for decades

[David Dennison 18,841]

3 minutes ago, DDD Dad said:

"Democracy dies in darkness."

Now with more irony!

[tx 3 putt 76,862]

33 minutes ago, High Plains Drifter said:

 

I'll have what this guy is having, unless its Chili's. 

 

 

[RomaVicta 29,898]

2 hours ago, texastough said:

The clip was posted earlier -- When Hannity started spewing the bullshit about Trump's knowledge and hours long in-depth conversations with him about complex topics, Smith should have jumped in with "About WHAT? About ELECTROCUTION SHARKS? About CANCER WINDMILLS? About MEN'S JUNK????

Actually, the face he made was perfect.

[texasdago 7,563]

52 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Texas might shift, or be close to it, if Harris county turned out like the other big counties do. They’ll just never be at Travis County margins. 56% for the Dems in 2020 - now imagine if they got 65% like Dallas county

Travis County represent.  And damn I love the Hill Country but damn I hate the Hill Country.

[BurntOrange&White 39,930]

 

This sounds like a MAGA dipshit got asked to put on a jacket and refused so he assaulted a poll worker

 

 

SAN ANTONIO – An elections clerk was assaulted during an incident at a polling location, according to Bexar County Elections Administrator Jacque Callanen.

Elections officials confirmed the assault happened at the Johnston Branch Library at 6307 Sun Valley Drive, one of 51 polling locations open during the early voting period in Bexar County.

Details on what led to the assault were not released by Callanen during a news conference on Friday morning. She said the investigation is ongoing.

The assault happened on Thursday evening, and the clerk received treatment by Emergency Medical Services at the location before the clerk was released, Callanen said.

On Thursday, 896 ballots were cast at the site. Callanen said the polling location is open Friday for early voting.

Early voting started on Monday, and so far, 191,362 votes have been cast in Bexar County, according to numbers from the Bexar County elections office.

On Thursday, the fourth day of early voting, Bexar County polling locations had the highest number of ballots cast so far: 48,653 ballots cast.

Callanen said “our poll sites are safe” and asked people to pack patience and be prepared.

During a news conference on Thursday, Callanen reminded voters that they cannot wear campaign paraphernalia to the voting booth, such as a shirt, hat, button, or swag.

She said some of the election judges will take jackets to polling sites for voters to wear in case people are wearing a shirt that features a particular candidate. Callanen said that some voters will be asked to go to the bathroom and turn the shirt inside out or even tape a sample ballot to the front of their shirt.

“You may see some voters that aren’t happy ... but we need to remain within the law so that no one is intimidated and everyone can come and vote freely,” Callanen said.

She also said that voters cannot discuss political preferences while waiting in line to vote.

Registered voters in Bexar County can vote at any polling site during the early voting period and Election Day. Early voting ends Nov. 1, and Election Day is Nov. 5.

[hookem2010 2,623]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

PA Firewall: 371k (D/R) and 423.5 with idies

Also, because a lot of people here take this dude as gospel:

Carville: 3 Reasons Why Harris Wins

Small jump from yesterday, no? Hopefully there is a big dump on Monday