2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Red Five 40859]

3 minutes ago, Ravishing Rick said:

This is my first time to venture into the cloak room, so have patience with me, please.  What I'm trying to understand is all the positivity for Harris and her chances in this thread, yet the sportsbooks/betting markets, and Wall St / European stock markets all appear to be pricing in a Trump victory.  Seems like that shouldn't be ignored?

It hasn't been ignored. It's been discussed constantly. 

[Bateshorn 9927]

3 minutes ago, Ravishing Rick said:

This is my first time to venture into the cloak room, so have patience with me, please.  What I'm trying to understand is all the positivity for Harris and her chances in this thread, yet the sportsbooks/betting markets, and Wall St / European stock markets all appear to be pricing in a Trump victory.  Seems like that shouldn't be ignored?

Before everyone jumps on you: the markets are a bit of a self selecting investor pool.  Mostly male and young. It’s like if you asked your fantasy football group.  

[South Austin 52509]

Just now, Bateshorn said:

It’s like if you asked your fantasy football group.  

Mine would be too hungover to vote.

[Bullneck 19091]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

Georgia overnight data dump highlights:

1.  2.614 million votes have now been cast

2  Women outpace men by 300k 55.5% to 44% (a .1% uptick from yesterday)

3.  Vote totals against 2020 - EV voters make up 76.4%, day of voters 6.6%, and non voters 17%

The 2020 early voters now make up 2 million of the 2.614 million, while the day of make up 174k.  The big question then, who are the 444k non voters from 2020 (this will determine the winner)?

Demographic breakdown of the non voter

White - 237k

Black - 107k

Hispanic - 22k

Asian - 19k

Other - 59k

By Gender

Female - 233k

Male - 199k

Other/Unknown -12k 

By Age

18-29 - 140k

30-39 - 64k

40-49 - 55k

50-64 - 89k

65+ - 88k

Unknown - 9k

Fortress Atlanta 2020 Non Voters

Clayton County - 10k

Cobb County - 31k

Dekalb Couny - 30k

Douglas County - 6.2k

Fulton County - 58k

Gwinett County - 38k

 

So the curious thing this week will be if we see a voting turnout that runs out of steam.  We've now exceeded EV turnout by 300k from 2020, and 2020 EV voters that haven't voted only represent about 325k.  I've been expecting a bit of slow down, but yesterday proved to be the exact opposite.  It now appears that Georgia will easily exceed 3 million votes cast by Friday, the end of EV.  The real question is how high this total will actually go.  Is 3.5 million possible?  Well I'd have certainly told you no before all this, but now I think it's almost assured.  

The engagement is fantastic, and I certainly believe that favors us strongly.  Apathy is our enemy, and I don't see any.  

Focus Group Question #1: The City of Atlanta and it's surround area should be called:

1. The Atlanta MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area)

2. Atlanta Metro

3. Metro Atlanta

4. Fortress Atlanta

Spoiler

😛

 

5 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Betting markets are able to be manipulated. There's lots of crypto money pouring in for Trump because they want him to win. Wall St bakes in plenty of stuff like rate cuts. This is no different. You're putting a lot of credibility into speculative markets. Markets don't vote. Enthusiastic people do. Who has the enthusiasm gap right now?

This.  It's the same reason DJT stock isn't trading at 0.0001 of a penny.  

Edited October 26 by Bullneck

[Firemans4Horn 18050]

30 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

Polls have sample sizes of hundreds or a couple of thousand. Early voting has sample size of millions. It’s not theoretical or speculative. All polling is based on modeling from past elections. There has never been a gender gap like this in turnout. If Harris wins by a surprising number, this will be why pollsters didn’t see it coming.

 

[gmr548 16580]

6 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Before everyone jumps on you: the markets are a bit of a self selecting investor pool.  Mostly male and young. It’s like if you asked your fantasy football group.  

Or if the line on a Texas game was set purely based on action from Texas fans.

[Red Five 40859]

2 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Before everyone jumps on you: the markets are a bit of a self selecting investor pool.  Mostly male and young. It’s like if you asked your fantasy football group.  

Second best odds in Predictit are for an outcome that would have Trump winning multiple states that aren't swing states (and also all seven swing states). New Mexico, Virginia, etc. Just not reality based.

[David Dennison 18860]

So what's the deal with the early vote? Are Democrats crushing it or what?

I depend on this thread to keep me informed.

[Bullneck 19091]

11 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Those are good numbers in general and excellent numbers in the Rust Belt + GA. I've never paid close attention to the gender breakdown of the electorate, so I have no idea if we should expect that gap to close on or leading up to election day. NV is gone but it's the least important swing state.

Trump platform: If I don't send you to a concentration camp there will be no tax on tips.

Gotdamn people are stupid.

15 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Tbh she should go on Mr Beast and do a challenge 

Or at least Hot Ones, the show with hot wings and even hotter questions.

[Al Bundy's Napoleon Hand 13585]

11 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

It’s like if you asked your fantasy football group.  

...championship

[mdmost 43002]

3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

So what's the deal with the early vote? Are Democrats crushing it or what?

I depend on this thread to keep me informed.

[Chopper 17235]

Little enthusiasm for Diaper Don. They're already starting the surrender cobra. 

[TheStoicPaisano 9922]

 

['stache 21815]

11 hours ago, wood said:

 

If his audience is super masculine alpha male types (at least in their own minds) this comes off as pure loser shit and their hero is laughing at him to his fucking face. That has to play to at least some of those guys, maybe enough to dampen their enthusiasm and they end up staying home?

If Harris does the show she should flat out say that for such a strong guy he hasn’t been able to shut her up or the 40 million women who are already voting against him. Seems a big strong tough guy could make the lady stand down but here I am, calling him and idiot. Then keep hammering him for being a fat stupid fucking sore loser. He’s truly pathetic if any of them would sit down and actually think for a second.

 

Edited October 26 by 'stache

[David Dennison 18860]

When Harris wins this thing, there better be a goddamn reckoning in the mainstream media. You venture outside of this thread and the national narrative is Trump is on the verge of pulling away with this thing and Democrats are sad sack crying everywhere.

 

[Bullneck 19091]

39 minutes ago, Born to Run said:

Rogan listeners are not a monolith of human thumbs.

Maybe not new motto worthy but memorable nonetheless.

[Ted Lange 16086]

What if Kamala agreed to meet Joe Rogan at a Chili's? 

[gmr548 16580]

4 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

When Harris wins this thing, there better be a goddamn reckoning in the mainstream media. You venture outside of this thread and the national narrative is Trump is on the verge of pulling away with this thing and Democrats are sad sack crying everywhere.

 

.500 would make you the GOAT as a MLB hitter or NBA 3 point shooter, and give your team a non-zero shot at the NFL playoffs (before 17th game). So 1/2 ain't bad.

[The Original Greaser Bob 2834]

1 minute ago, Ted Lange said:

What if Kamala agreed to meet Joe Rogan at a Chili's? 

Awesome Blossom.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3284]

2 minutes ago, Ted Lange said:

What if Kamala agreed to meet Joe Rogan at a Chili's? 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19101]

11 minutes ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

1.  MSG is ugly as fuck.

2. This is a list of real losers.

3. Wishing for a giant sinkhole. NYC and the world would be better off.  

[Chopper 17235]

52 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

Look at how w bad it fubar-d Trump’s schedule yesterday. 

This. He did practically nothing of a campaign nature while in Texas. He flew to Austin, stroked his own ego, sputtered incoherently on Rogan, then flew to Wisconsin where he sputtered incoherently in front of a few pissed off, miserable people.

[Chopper 17235]

Past voting results, estimated by gender

Catalist -

Roper -

[Horn Dog 9856]

7 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

MAGA !!!!!!!!

 

Which Surly poster is this that took their grift game to 11?

[BamaATL 16593]

40 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

Focus Group Question #1: The City of Atlanta and it's surround area should be called:

1. The Atlanta MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area)

2. Atlanta Metro

3. Metro Atlanta

4. Fortress Atlanta

  Hide contents

😛

 

This.  It's the same reason DJT stock isn't trading at 0.0001 of a penny.  

Focus group input on naming is fine, I hadn't figured out anything else to call it.  One of the issues with the other names is that it implies all of Metro is balanced in a similar way, it isn't, not even close.  Metro is so large, but it's also that you can go ten miles in one direction either way, and the political reality is night and day.  For example, I live in Cherokee County, where it's a 60/40 Republican tilt.  However, I live 3 miles from Cobb County, which goes exactly the opposite.  When I refer to fortress Atlanta, it's just the democratic strongholds of the metro area.  

[Bullneck 19091]

1 minute ago, BamaATL said:

Focus group input on naming is fine, I hadn't figured out anything else to call it.  One of the issues with the other names is that it implies all of Metro is balanced in a similar way, it isn't, not even close.  Metro is so large, but it's also that you can go ten miles in one direction either way, and the political reality is night and day.  For example, I live in Cherokee County, where it's a 60/40 Republican tilt.  However, I live 3 miles from Cobb County, which goes exactly the opposite.  When I refer to fortress Atlanta, it's just the democratic strongholds of the metro area.  

I was just kidding around 😃

Most metro names are somewhat normal - Bay Area, Chicagoland, Metroplex, South Florida (metro Dade but also Broward and PB) but I always thought "Inland Empire" (Riverside/Ontario) seemed a bit of puffery.

[Pato del Muerto 52499]

It’s been how many elections now where Atlanta is spotlighted, and I still can’t read or hear Cobb county without thinking of the big boss man being introduced. 

[Upgrayedd 5812]

1 minute ago, Bullneck said:

 I always thought "Inland Empire" (Riverside/Ontario) seemed a bit of puffery.

Inland Shithole doesn’t have the same panache 

[BurntOrange&White 39933]

17 minutes ago, Chopper said:

Past voting results, estimated by gender

Catalist -

Roper -

I can't imagine Trump or his VP have closed that gap. If anything I feel like that gap widens this election.

[TexEx15 17531]

 

[Bullneck 19091]

25 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

1.  MSG is ugly as fuck.

2. This is a list of real losers.

3. Wishing for a giant sinkhole. NYC and the world would be better off.  

What blows me away is the Nazi rally signalling from whenever they had that Nazi rally at MSG in the 30s (ain't looking it up).

They aren't even trying to hide it.  I could see a rally in Staten Island or Nassau County or back in Wildwood, but this makes no sense.  If you're a Rangers or Knicks fan expect an increase in ticket prices to cover the fact that the operator is going to get stiffed on his appearance cost.

[BamaATL 16593]

6 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

It’s been how many elections now where Atlanta is spotlighted, and I still can’t read or hear Cobb county without thinking of the big boss man being introduced. 

Well, I could do a wrestling theme to it if you want.  We could have Abdullah the Butcher land, the Dog faced Gremlin land, DDP land, etc.  

Side note, in Ben Hill, Abdullah owns a house of ribs and Chinese food.  I'm not making that up either.  

Edited October 26 by BamaATL

[Nice Guy Eddie 13512]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

Your posts aren’t triggers—they just aren’t well reasoned. 

There’s been no announcement about her going on Rogan yet you’re angry that she hasn’t done it. There’s been no evidence that it’s the Harris team that is waffling about going on Rogan and you keep suggesting that it is. 

 

That’s all.

poor logic with your description of the yes/no to the podcast but you do you.

I don’t let strangers on the internet get me mad so stop with the gaslighting. You were going on and ending posts with Jesus Christ. I’m not even sure I responded to you until you got all pissy. Reply back if you want but I’m over this conversation.

 

[Pancho 44804]

 

[aggie08 21504]

2 minutes ago, Pancho said:

 

Fuckin' A.

[Pancho 44804]

 

[Sawbonz 27562]

1 hour ago, Ravishing Rick said:

and Wall St / European stock markets all appear to be pricing in a Trump victory

What makes you think this is occurring 

[wood 11225]

10 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Dick Fucking Cheney has publicly supported Kamala Harris, as have a shitload of other high-profile Republicans. Shit, the mayor of Oklahoma Fucking City just came out yesterday.

That means there's going to be a shitload of Republicans who *quietly* vote for her (or just don't vote).

Hell, .Republicans I know have said they are voting for Harris.

100%. Women and NeverAgainTrump Republicans will swing this election massively.

Get ready to win this shit, y'all. Don't be pussies. Like Kamala said, "We have the momentum". Just gotta finish the job & run through the finish line.

Edited October 26 by wood

[David Dennison 18860]

7 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

What makes you think this is occurring 

Oh, I don't know . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-already-priced-trump-010400215.html

Edited October 26 by David Dennison

[Sawbonz 27562]

3 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

Oh, I don't know . . . https://finance.yahoo.com/news/wall-street-already-priced-trump-010400215.html

That’s begging the question imo

[LCHorn 2620]

1 hour ago, David Dennison said:

When Harris wins this thing, there better be a goddamn reckoning in the mainstream media. You venture outside of this thread and the national narrative is Trump is on the verge of pulling away with this thing and Democrats are sad sack crying everywhere.

 

Haha, they don’t care.  They’ll do a couple of weeks of talking about themselves (it’s their favorite subject anyway).  Whatever drives eyeballs.  

 

1 hour ago, TheStoicPaisano said:

 

I’m sure Lee Greenwood is very familiar with who pays the bills after managing to be a one hit wonder who still makes a leaving at it forty years later, but I bet he never imagined sharing the marquee with the founder of Death Row Records.  

[TexasHooch 5122]

Here's the text of that article:  

Quote

“The investor community, they’ve been very, very, favoring Trump based on my conversations and based on just a general ambiance,” Interactive Brokers senior economist Jose Torres told Fortune. 

The market has already started pricing in a Donald Trump victory. A series of recent analyst notes detail how the former president’s protectionist economic policies would translate into market outcomes. Investors expect a second Trump term would mean tariffs on importers hoping to enter the U.S. market and higher levels of inflation. Trump’s signature economic proposal of implementing blanket tariffs isn’t the platonic ideal of a free-market policy one might have associated with past conservative leaders. Yet the market is very much preparing for the tectonic shifts that a closed-off U.S. market could pose to the global economy. 

In Europe, stocks are already lagging the broader market. In the U.S., inflation forecasts have started to trend up just as Trump pulled ahead in the betting markets. Analysts have even started to bandy about predictions of stagflation. The polls show Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris in a dead heat heading into the final week of their respective campaigns. However, prediction markets are tilting in favor of Trump, which has colored much of the market forecasts. 

“Trump win increasingly priced in, but polls still tight,” Barclays European equities strategist Emmanuel Cau wrote in an analyst note published Wednesday.

European stocks are already underperforming the market due to investors’ fears they’ll be hit hard by Trump’s proposed tariffs, according to Barclays. For investors, European companies struggling with Trump’s tariffs could lead to major earnings hits. In a worst-case scenario of a full-blown trade war between Europe and the U.S., companies in Italy and Germany could see high-single-digit drag on EPS growth, according to Barclays. Entire sectors, such as tech and the European auto market, could suffer the same fate, per the bank’s forecast. 

European stocks, “keep lagging, suggesting they may be perceived as the losers from a second Trump presidency,” Cau wrote. 

Another feature of Trump’s tariffs is that they’re widely expected to be inflationary. “Expected tariffs (per Trump’s stated proposals) support potential upside risk to market pricing of inflation if Trump wins the U.S. election,” Bank of America rates strategist Meghan Swiber wrote in a note on Wednesday. 

And because Wall Street expects Trump to win the election, projections for the future rate of inflation have ticked up. For example, inflation compensation, which is the premium investors are willing to pay to protect the real value of their returns from inflation, rose since September, according to Bank of America. Part of the increase was due to positive economic data. Another part had to do with Trump’s political fortunes. 

“We note it also coincided with higher market-implied probability of Former President Trump winning the U.S. election,” Swiber wrote. 

Trump’s tariffs would lead to 70 to 80 basis points of inflation, according to Bank of America’s estimates.

I think it's disingenuous though to state or imply that the market expects Trump to win.  The truth is that the implications of him winning are so severe that foreign markets have no choice but to hedge now in the event it actually happens.  It's what they do.

Edited October 26 by TexasHooch

[Mittens 8284]

1 hour ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Tbh she should go on Mr Beast and do a challenge 

Hot Ones would be perfect

[heso 2794]

2 hours ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

Polls have sample sizes of hundreds or a couple of thousand. Early voting has sample size of millions. It’s not theoretical or speculative. All polling is based on modeling from past elections. There has never been a gender gap like this in turnout. If Harris wins by a surprising number, this will be why pollsters didn’t see it coming.

2020 gender gaps (all leads for women):

GA - 12

NC - 12

MI - 8

PA - 7

AZ - 4

NV - 4

WI - 0

 

 

 

[David Dennison 18860]

2 minutes ago, LCHorn said:

Haha, they don’t care.  They’ll do a couple of weeks of talking about themselves (it’s their favorite subject anyway).  Whatever drives eyeballs.  

I know. It's why I haven't watched a lick of television coverage during this election.

[David Dennison 18860]

6 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

That’s begging the question imo

I don't disagree, journalists are out there writing stories.

[SizzleChest 8284]

3 hours ago, Pancho said:

Boy, stop. R

Harris going on Rogan isn’t officially dead, Jesus Christ. 

It's almost like motherfuckers don't understand when you go to overtime and win the toss, you play defense first.

[Snake Diggity 4625]

1 hour ago, Ravishing Rick said:

This is my first time to venture into the cloak room, so have patience with me, please.  What I'm trying to understand is all the positivity for Harris and her chances in this thread, yet the sportsbooks/betting markets, and Wall St / European stock markets all appear to be pricing in a Trump victory.  Seems like that shouldn't be ignored?

It is a valid point.  If Trump wins, people will point to the betting markets (along with all the MSM) to say “it was in plain sight the whole time”.  So all of that is evidence to think this thing is gonna be a nail biter and that Trump is likely to win.  But there’s also plenty of valid evidence that those narratives have been manipulated and that the data heavily favors Harris.  In the end people making predictions are probably gonna lean on their own anecdotal experience.  For my part there is clearly more enthusiasm for Harris than there was for Biden or Hillary and there seems to be less enthusiasm from Trump’s supporters than there was in 2016 or 2020.

[Gatorubet 30239]

1 hour ago, Ravishing Rick said:

This is my first time to venture into the cloak room, so have patience with me, please.  What I'm trying to understand is all the positivity for Harris and her chances in this thread, yet the sportsbooks/betting markets, and Wall St / European stock markets all appear to be pricing in a Trump victory.  Seems like that shouldn't be ignored?

This is a Trumper. He’s “trying to understand it.”.  He posted the betting bullshit that Maga is trying to sell the Bros to convince them he’s gonna win.

If he can’t understand it, that means he’s a fan of the orange turd doing some gentle trolling.  if you truly has not watched any TV or news or social media since Biden dropped out, then he just needs to shut the fuck up and watch what happens because he wasn’t interested until today.

Mostly, by showing up with a stupid question that will illicit responses that aren’t positive (for no other reason, implying we haven’t discussed something we’ve discussed to death), he can run back to DT and say how mean and brainwashed the bubble is in the cloak room.  

But I’m not gonna neg him, it’s fine letting it play out.

[aggie08 21504]

Were sitting here fighting about how urgently the other Presidential candidate needs to appear on the Joe Rogan Podcast a week before election day, and I'm supposed to not take a "kill everyone" Brisket approach to the future of our country?