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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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NAVY

NAVY 6740

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, Beantown Express 2.0 said:

Just had some fucking cunt knocking doors in my neighborhood putting this shit on my door to get out the vote for republicans.  Also had a “Trump endorsed” congressman or something flyer telling me vote for this America First candidate.  Read this shit and tell me if you see anything rage inducing about it.  
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Why isn’t this flyer sticking half way out of her ass? 

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Beantown Express 2.0

Beantown Express 2.0 6559

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, Valmy77 said:

Same old shit. Somehow they have had an unchecked majority in the Lege plus every statewide office every year this century yet can never seem to achieve their legislative goals.

Exactly.  Yet people read that shit and think, “Oh, we need some republicans to protect the grid so we don’t have blackouts like when the guys who were in charge of the grid for the last 30 years didn’t have anything to do with it”.  Plus teaching porn to our kids, etc… The fact that I know the people of this state will continue to vote for these Republicans make me actively root for the worst things in life to happen to these people.  I posted something similar a few days ago but man I really feel the people of Texas and the US in general deserve to have their lives ruined. 

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quigley

quigley 1559

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Georgia overnight data dump highlights:

1.  2.614 million votes have now been cast

2  Women outpace men by 300k 55.5% to 44% (a .1% uptick from yesterday)

3.  Vote totals against 2020 - EV voters make up 76.4%, day of voters 6.6%, and non voters 17%

The 2020 early voters now make up 2 million of the 2.614 million, while the day of make up 174k.  The big question then, who are the 444k non voters from 2020 (this will determine the winner)?

Demographic breakdown of the non voter

White - 237k

Black - 107k

Hispanic - 22k

Asian - 19k

Other - 59k

By Gender

Female - 233k

Male - 199k

Other/Unknown -12k 

By Age

18-29 - 140k

30-39 - 64k

40-49 - 55k

50-64 - 89k

65+ - 88k

Unknown - 9k

Fortress Atlanta 2020 Non Voters

Clayton County - 10k

Cobb County - 31k

Dekalb Couny - 30k

Douglas County - 6.2k

Fulton County - 58k

Gwinett County - 38k

 

So the curious thing this week will be if we see a voting turnout that runs out of steam.  We've now exceeded EV turnout by 300k from 2020, and 2020 EV voters that haven't voted only represent about 325k.  I've been expecting a bit of slow down, but yesterday proved to be the exact opposite.  It now appears that Georgia will easily exceed 3 million votes cast by Friday, the end of EV.  The real question is how high this total will actually go.  Is 3.5 million possible?  Well I'd have certainly told you no before all this, but now I think it's almost assured.  

The engagement is fantastic, and I certainly believe that favors us strongly.  Apathy is our enemy, and I don't see any.

Fantastic data gathering, but i disagree with your optimism.

440K new voters with only a third being young doesn't fill me with hope. I'd love to be wrong with this election proving that get out the vote really matters, but I don't think that's the most likely way this thing ends.

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Fudge Nuggets

Fudge Nuggets 19188

Posted
Posted
20 minutes ago, wood said:

Fucking unbelievable. I knew about poll taxes, but I had no idea they were this steep or that they lasted so long. 

The googles says $75 back then would be the same as $981 today.  I bet over 70% of today's electorate couldn't / wouldn't pay that.

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Ravishing Rick

Ravishing Rick 1129

Posted
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3 hours ago, Gatorubet said:

This is a Trumper. He’s “trying to understand it.”.  He posted the betting bullshit that Maga is trying to sell the Bros to convince them he’s gonna win.

If he can’t understand it, that means he’s a fan of the orange turd doing some gentle trolling.  if you truly has not watched any TV or news or social media since Biden dropped out, then he just needs to shut the fuck up and watch what happens because he wasn’t interested until today.

Mostly, by showing up with a stupid question that will illicit responses that aren’t positive (for no other reason, implying we haven’t discussed something we’ve discussed to death), he can run back to DT and say how mean and brainwashed the bubble is in the cloak room.  

But I’m not gonna neg him, it’s fine letting it play out.

Nope.  I've been working in Monaco for a while and haven't gotten into the American political news cycle.  I also intentionally avoid social media unless I'm peepin' hotties on Instagram, which I quite enjoy.  

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quigley

quigley 1559

Posted
Posted
6 hours ago, qwertyu1234 said:

Also, why do I never hear from Democrats that inflation is better? In their ads or otherwise, at least it seems that way to me.

Because people are bad at math.

Prices are still higher than before the pandemic so they don't see that the price rise built into the system by pandemic-era effects will take a long time to correct, if ever. Oh, and the don't look at their check and see that their buying power is better despite the price rise.

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Bullneck

Bullneck 19070

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, henrygandorf said:

you should.

i went down the rabbit hole a couple years ago (i think i even made a post about it) and watched/read/listened to a ton of stuff about the late 30's - basically what was going on in the u.s. after hitler invaded poland but before we got involved in the war. it's really fascinating.

maddow did a podcast called "ultra" that was great, whether you like her or not. i watched "the plot against america" (which i skipped when it aired), oliver stone's untold history of the united states. it's a really interesting chunk of american history that nobody really pays attention to (or purposely forgets) because 1941-1945 overshadows it all.

the older i get, the more i realize even at a good middle school/public high school/ut, i don't know shit about history outside of the major events and what becomes a tv show or movie. consider that most of maga + the orange man-god himself relies mostly on jr high education (he's still learning about abraham lincoln ffs) and bold type history. you shouldn't need more motivation than that.

over the past 10 years or so, what i used to consume in sports, i now consume in history. then i found the surly cloak room and flushed it all down the toilet. so thanks. assholes.

I know the story but I usually try to be as accurate as possible when I post.  And I watch Maddow at least once a week so I’ve got her input on it as well.  

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quigley

quigley 1559

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1 hour ago, Satchel said:

The first lesson in Professor Timothy Snyder’s On Tyranny, is - Do Not Obey in Advance. He explains:

”Most of the power of authoritarianism is freely given. In times like these, individuals think ahead about what a more repressive government will want, and then offer themselves up without being asked. A citizen who adapts in this way is teaching power what it can do.”

eg, WaPo not endorsing a candidate.

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

Posted
Posted
39 minutes ago, quigley said:

Fantastic data gathering, but i disagree with your optimism.

440K new voters with only a third being young doesn't fill me with hope. I'd love to be wrong with this election proving that get out the vote really matters, but I don't think that's the most likely way this thing ends.

You have to consider where that vote is coming from, and over half of it is in Democratic strong holds (I've been highlighting Atlanta, but there are others in the state.  At any rate, 40k worth of people in Dekalb County, that went 90% Democratic didn't just show up to voter Trump.  Some of them will, but the split should be somewhere near representative, think worst case 80-20.  Well that's a big difference, and net positive of easily 30k.  In a state decided by 11k last time, that's the story.  

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Pancho

Pancho 44703

Posted
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47 minutes ago, quigley said:

Fantastic data gathering, but i disagree with your optimism.

440K new voters with only a third being young doesn't fill me with hope. I'd love to be wrong with this election proving that get out the vote really matters, but I don't think that's the most likely way this thing ends.

 

 

 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26435

Posted
Posted

I had to talk someone down who is very freaked out based on The Bullshit* and it appears to have readjusted their perspective so I'm sharing here:

Lets imagine you are watching a basketball game, and you are rooting for Team A. 
Early the in the game, Team B jumped out to a 5 point lead, settled in, and the lead drifted from 3-5 points, but was basically stable until the the beginning of the 4th quarter when they pull away and stretch the lead out to  as much as 10. Your PG is playing hard but playing hurt. With 2 minutes left, Team B is up 7 and cruising to an easy win, when the backup comes in, and hits a three. Team B misses a 3, the sub grabs a long rebound, slings it out ahead for an easy dunk, then steals the inbound pass and drills another three! You're up 1 with 1 minute left! What a comeback!

And then the two teams trade missed shots. 10 seconds are left when Team B gets a steal but there's a scramble and now it's a jump ball. 

Team A is Harris in this situation - had a huge late comeback and are now holding on to slight lead with fresh legs.
Team B is Trump in this situation - blew a huge lead but hung in there, and has a shot at winning but they have to do more than Team A in order to win. 

Should Team A be worried? What about that scenario says that Team B is the favorite?




*What's "priced in," media narratives, predictive markets, polling noise, etc. 

24 minutes ago, quigley said:

She's actually quite attractive.

HOT TAKE ALERT

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locodos

locodos 5387

Posted
Posted
8 minutes ago, Macanudo said:

I love seeing tricked out trucks like this.  It tells me their IQ is double digits and they have Trump like penis.

I saw him broken down on the way to pick up some Dim Sum.   I rolled down the window and laughed and laughed.  He did not look happy.  I figured I'd have the camera ready on the way back in case he was still there...  No illusions about Florida being remotely redeemable, but I did take my daughter to vote today.  So proud of her.  

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26435

Posted
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53 minutes ago, quigley said:

I'd love to be wrong with this election proving that get out the vote really matters

Yeah, how can actual humans working on the ground in the places they live overcome overseas predictive markets and a national media vibeshift?

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aggie08

aggie08 21482

Posted
Posted (edited)

Ok, hypothetically if this is close, I'm giving Kamala Michigan and Pennsylvania. Which state(s) give her the best chance to seal the deal? 

Wisconsin

Georgia

North Carolina

Arizona and Nevada

 

No, I'm not drinking. You're drinking.

Edited by aggie08
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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26435

Posted
Posted
9 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Ok, hypothetically if this is close, I'm giving Kamala Michigan and Pennsylvania. Which state(s) give her the best chance to seal the deal? 

Wisconsin

Georgia

North Carolina

Arizona and Nevada

 

No, I'm not drinking. You're drinking.

Are you asking for the bellwether or tipping point?

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Gatorubet

Gatorubet 30185

Posted
Posted (edited)
2 hours ago, Ravishing Rick said:

Nope.  I've been working in Monaco for a while and haven't gotten into the American political news cycle.  I also intentionally avoid social media unless I'm peepin' hotties on Instagram, which I quite enjoy.  

self-imposed almost total ignorance does not say a lot about your meeting your duties as an informed citizen voting. 

But you came to the right place and all forgiven.  Please vote for Harris.  unless you don’t like democracy and the constitution and candidates threatening to sic the military on their opponents - and anyone who doesn’t agree with them. Which apparently many people don’t.

Edited by Gatorubet
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Irwin F Fletcher

Irwin F Fletcher 3550

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It's been a good week. Both kids at UT voted (one for the first time) for Harris/Walz and texted and helped get some of their like-minded friends registered earlier in the year.

Wife and I just voted today for democrats across the board here in Harris County. 

We walked out and high-fived and made it back in time to crack a beer for kickoff. 

LFG!

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