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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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40 minutes ago, wood said:

From that article: 

Oh yeah Don, it's really just as simple as 'raking the forest floor' ... you got damn imbecile. 

I mean ... what in the actual fucking fuck? Dude has no fucking clue about almost anything he talks about, but knows more than anyone about it.

Next he’s gonna suggest we gotta ‘comb the deserts’ to prevent droughts…

Sci-Fi Comedy GIF by Turner Classic Movies

 

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6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

The Office Thank You GIF

Even the “Reagan Democrats” didn’t fall into this category generated as much publicity, as most of that was more about a quiet demographic shift from JFK supporters to Reagan.  You also didn’t have prominent Democrats publicly bailing on Carter like we see Republicans bailing on Trump or speaking out against him (especially those who worked in the Trump administration).

Yep. Exactly. I said it before and I'll probably say it again, I've been voting in Presidential elections since 1984, and I've never seen anything even remotely like this. And people have to realize these defections don't happen in a vacuum. When this many prominent Republicans are denouncing their party's own presidential candidate, there are a whole lot more voters that are thinking and doing the same.

Kamala's gonna win, y'all. 

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2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

There's going to be a helluva lot of blame being thrown around, and I have no doubt that Trump will try and burn the GOP down to deflect blame (even as he still controls its purse strings and even as its his fault he's losing), but there are going to be a lot of Republicans who won't stand for him declaring next January that he's running for 2028.  They were willing to tolerate him sucking up a shitload of money that should have been spread around the GOP/RNC, but him losing twice in a row and trying to run again for 2028 will be too much. Republicans like Holt will be in a good position to pick up the pieces.

It's weird - he's progressive as fuck for a Republican (supported/met with BLM at protests, LBGTQ, COVID mandates, Indigenous People's Day, etc.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Holt_(politician)#First_term

But he also worked for Dennis Hastert....

 

the knives in the back will come out very quick for trump. haley will lead the charge (wouldn't be shocked if she's already cut a deal with some senate R's). trump bled the GoP dry, they want control of the money back. I don't see any top R's sticking by his side. 

 

Et Tu Brute?' All About This Famous Shakespeare Phrase✔️

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5 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

Coach Pop ain’t got time for Trump’s bullshit.

Anyone know when that was recorded? I was at the game tonight, and now I see this. Fuckin' A, Pop. Got damn American hero.

Edited by wood
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6 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Personally, I was very confident four years ago. What doubt I had was purely 2016 PTSD. Biden's lead in polls was just too wide. We got a historic polling error and he still won.

I'm not at all confident of anything either way this year. I'm def not biting on the anecdata about everyone's Republican friends adding up to be this huge chunk of defections to the D side. Like everyone else, we all live in our own bubbles.

Pretty much where I'm at

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13 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Shots fired!! We have Shots Fired!!!

I didn’t know my wife posts here. She always gives me shit for my love of the Allsups burrito. But she’s a mostly vegetarian so what does she know about tasty food?

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5 hours ago, wood said:

From that article: 

Oh yeah Don, it's really just as simple as 'raking the forest floor' ... you got damn imbecile. 

I mean ... what in the actual fucking fuck? Dude has no fucking clue about almost anything he talks about, but knows more than anyone about it.

Who is gonna rake if we deport all the Mexicans??

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6 hours ago, wood said:

From that article: 

Oh yeah Don, it's really just as simple as 'raking the forest floor' ... you got damn imbecile. 

I mean ... what in the actual fucking fuck? Dude has no fucking clue about almost anything he talks about, but knows more than anyone about it.

Starting with the fact the fires are usually on federal land. So, uh, why don’t you take the fucking floors Asshole?

Edited by SydneyCarton
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16 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Starting with the fact the fires are usually on federal land. So, uh, why don’t you take the fucking floors Asshole?

It's so frustrating that he details conversations like this. The majority of our major, billion dollar wild fires have been caused by shittily maintained power lines throwing sparks in the forest. We should be holding these companies accountable and jailing their executives that continually put off maintaining their infra in the name of saving money and juicing profits just a little more

https://wfca.com/wildfire-articles/power-lines-and-wildfires/

 

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2 hours ago, G650 said:

Pretty much where I'm at

 

Polling has fucked us for the last decade.

The polls have terribly low response rates (2.5% from NYT-Siena) so they have massive error bars. If they reported their true data, with possibly 10 - 15% margin of error (or more), people would stop listening to pollsters. The pollsters want to keep their jobs so they dial down the margin of error to ~ 5% and include the 50% threshold in their error. By doing this, they appear to be herding, even if they don't aren't explicitly compromising their data.

Tight polling gives the appearance of a tight race so news outlets have a game to cover instead of focusing on policy and competency, which are boring. This reporting is a self-fulfilling prophecy, increasing anxiety and distrust in the populous.

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6 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

the knives in the back will come out very quick for trump. haley will lead the charge (wouldn't be shocked if she's already cut a deal with some senate R's). trump bled the GoP dry, they want control of the money back. I don't see any top R's sticking by his side. 

 

Et Tu Brute?' All About This Famous Shakespeare Phrase✔️

The risk/reward for the GOP on his being elected is almost incalculable.  Given that no one has shown even an iota of being able to grasp his mantle, the party is going to fall into squabbling that we haven’t seen since the dissolution of the Whigs.  I honestly have no idea what follows him if he loses. 

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21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

ABC: Harris 51-47. Last poll was only +2

Serious question. I know you know that the polls are flawed if not overtly cooked.

Why do follow them so closely?

This is not a criticism. I bet our worldview aligns closely and would enjoy your company IRL.

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Just now, quigley said:

Serious question. I know you know that the polls are flawed if not overtly cooked.

Why do follow them so closely?

This is not a criticism. I bet our worldview aligns closely and would enjoy your company IRL.

Idk, bc it’s a good distraction and people want to know. And I’ve said I think they’ll move towards Harris this week so pollsters can be “right” as we hit single digits until the election 

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11 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The risk/reward for the GOP on his being elected is almost incalculable.  Given that no one has shown even an iota of being able to grasp his mantle, the party is going to fall into squabbling that we haven’t seen since the dissolution of the Whigs.  I honestly have no idea what follows him if he loses. 

This is where I'm at.

The GOP knows they need the low propensity voters only Trump brings out. Without Trump, they lose like 2018 and 2022. Plus Trump may try to run for president from prison in 2028 or may flee to Russia. It's all on the table.

I know several chamber of commerce-type GOP. They have similar uncertainty. If they don't know, I don't know how anyone has any certainty.

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