2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Evil Bill Obrien 3269]

40 minutes ago, wood said:

From that article: 

Oh yeah Don, it's really just as simple as 'raking the forest floor' ... you got damn imbecile. 

I mean ... what in the actual fucking fuck? Dude has no fucking clue about almost anything he talks about, but knows more than anyone about it.

Next he’s gonna suggest we gotta ‘comb the deserts’ to prevent droughts…

 

[tx 3 putt 76874]

fucking beautiful 

 

[wood 11225]

6 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

Even the “Reagan Democrats” didn’t fall into this category generated as much publicity, as most of that was more about a quiet demographic shift from JFK supporters to Reagan.  You also didn’t have prominent Democrats publicly bailing on Carter like we see Republicans bailing on Trump or speaking out against him (especially those who worked in the Trump administration).

Yep. Exactly. I said it before and I'll probably say it again, I've been voting in Presidential elections since 1984, and I've never seen anything even remotely like this. And people have to realize these defections don't happen in a vacuum. When this many prominent Republicans are denouncing their party's own presidential candidate, there are a whole lot more voters that are thinking and doing the same.

Kamala's gonna win, y'all. 

[tx 3 putt 76874]

2 hours ago, atomheartbevo said:

There's going to be a helluva lot of blame being thrown around, and I have no doubt that Trump will try and burn the GOP down to deflect blame (even as he still controls its purse strings and even as its his fault he's losing), but there are going to be a lot of Republicans who won't stand for him declaring next January that he's running for 2028.  They were willing to tolerate him sucking up a shitload of money that should have been spread around the GOP/RNC, but him losing twice in a row and trying to run again for 2028 will be too much. Republicans like Holt will be in a good position to pick up the pieces.

It's weird - he's progressive as fuck for a Republican (supported/met with BLM at protests, LBGTQ, COVID mandates, Indigenous People's Day, etc.)

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/David_Holt_(politician)#First_term

But he also worked for Dennis Hastert....

 

the knives in the back will come out very quick for trump. haley will lead the charge (wouldn't be shocked if she's already cut a deal with some senate R's). trump bled the GoP dry, they want control of the money back. I don't see any top R's sticking by his side. 

 

[wood 11225]

5 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

Coach Pop ain’t got time for Trump’s bullshit.

Anyone know when that was recorded? I was at the game tonight, and now I see this. Fuckin' A, Pop. Got damn American hero.

Edited October 27 by wood

[G650 14245]

6 hours ago, gmr548 said:

Personally, I was very confident four years ago. What doubt I had was purely 2016 PTSD. Biden's lead in polls was just too wide. We got a historic polling error and he still won.

I'm not at all confident of anything either way this year. I'm def not biting on the anecdata about everyone's Republican friends adding up to be this huge chunk of defections to the D side. Like everyone else, we all live in our own bubbles.

Pretty much where I'm at

[MidTexHorn 822]

13 hours ago, Bateshorn said:

Shots fired!! We have Shots Fired!!!

I didn’t know my wife posts here. She always gives me shit for my love of the Allsups burrito. But she’s a mostly vegetarian so what does she know about tasty food?

[Js1 85295]

5 hours ago, wood said:

From that article: 

Oh yeah Don, it's really just as simple as 'raking the forest floor' ... you got damn imbecile. 

I mean ... what in the actual fucking fuck? Dude has no fucking clue about almost anything he talks about, but knows more than anyone about it.

Who is gonna rake if we deport all the Mexicans??

[SydneyCarton 48064]

6 hours ago, wood said:

From that article: 

Oh yeah Don, it's really just as simple as 'raking the forest floor' ... you got damn imbecile. 

I mean ... what in the actual fucking fuck? Dude has no fucking clue about almost anything he talks about, but knows more than anyone about it.

Starting with the fact the fires are usually on federal land. So, uh, why don’t you take the fucking floors Asshole?

Edited October 27 by SydneyCarton

[Captainant 27639]

16 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Starting with the fact the fires are usually on federal land. So, uh, why don’t you take the fucking floors Asshole?

It's so frustrating that he details conversations like this. The majority of our major, billion dollar wild fires have been caused by shittily maintained power lines throwing sparks in the forest. We should be holding these companies accountable and jailing their executives that continually put off maintaining their infra in the name of saving money and juicing profits just a little more

https://wfca.com/wildfire-articles/power-lines-and-wildfires/

 

[Js1 85295]

ABC: Harris 51-47. Last poll was only +2

[quigley 1562]

2 hours ago, G650 said:

Pretty much where I'm at

 

Polling has fucked us for the last decade.

The polls have terribly low response rates (2.5% from NYT-Siena) so they have massive error bars. If they reported their true data, with possibly 10 - 15% margin of error (or more), people would stop listening to pollsters. The pollsters want to keep their jobs so they dial down the margin of error to ~ 5% and include the 50% threshold in their error. By doing this, they appear to be herding, even if they don't aren't explicitly compromising their data.

Tight polling gives the appearance of a tight race so news outlets have a game to cover instead of focusing on policy and competency, which are boring. This reporting is a self-fulfilling prophecy, increasing anxiety and distrust in the populous.

[Bateshorn 9927]

6 hours ago, tx 3 putt said:

 

the knives in the back will come out very quick for trump. haley will lead the charge (wouldn't be shocked if she's already cut a deal with some senate R's). trump bled the GoP dry, they want control of the money back. I don't see any top R's sticking by his side. 

 

The risk/reward for the GOP on his being elected is almost incalculable.  Given that no one has shown even an iota of being able to grasp his mantle, the party is going to fall into squabbling that we haven’t seen since the dissolution of the Whigs.  I honestly have no idea what follows him if he loses. 

[quigley 1562]

21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

ABC: Harris 51-47. Last poll was only +2

Serious question. I know you know that the polls are flawed if not overtly cooked.

Why do follow them so closely?

This is not a criticism. I bet our worldview aligns closely and would enjoy your company IRL.

[Js1 85295]

Just now, quigley said:

Serious question. I know you know that the polls are flawed if not overtly cooked.

Why do follow them so closely?

This is not a criticism. I bet our worldview aligns closely and would enjoy your company IRL.

Idk, bc it’s a good distraction and people want to know. And I’ve said I think they’ll move towards Harris this week so pollsters can be “right” as we hit single digits until the election 

[Js1 85295]

And 51-47 or so has been my PV guess. Well 51-46 but close

[quigley 1562]

11 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The risk/reward for the GOP on his being elected is almost incalculable.  Given that no one has shown even an iota of being able to grasp his mantle, the party is going to fall into squabbling that we haven’t seen since the dissolution of the Whigs.  I honestly have no idea what follows him if he loses. 

This is where I'm at.

The GOP knows they need the low propensity voters only Trump brings out. Without Trump, they lose like 2018 and 2022. Plus Trump may try to run for president from prison in 2028 or may flee to Russia. It's all on the table.

I know several chamber of commerce-type GOP. They have similar uncertainty. If they don't know, I don't know how anyone has any certainty.

Edited October 27 by quigley

[quigley 1562]

16 hours ago, Pancho said:

 

 

 

Early voting data that indicates a big increase in OLDER NEW voters could just as likely be good for Trump as Harris.

[aggie08 21492]

4 minutes ago, quigley said:

Early voting data that indicates a big increase in OLDER NEW voters could just as likely be good for Trump as Harris.

Yeah, that development has been puzzling. First time older voters scream low information. Probably far more likely to be voting to stop the sex changes that are apparently happening in every school than they are because they were so deeply bothered by 1/6, and have been begging for the chance to vote against Trump ever since.

[Snake Diggity 4620]

11 hours ago, Stros121 said:

I think he will be pardoned.

I regret giving you the benefit of the doubt in the other thread.  You don’t engage in the conversation, and instead abandon that to come troll in this thread.  Truly, fuck you.

[Bullneck 19073]

SIAP

 

 

[SydneyCarton 48064]

26 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The risk/reward for the GOP on his being elected is almost incalculable.  Given that no one has shown even an iota of being able to grasp his mantle, the party is going to fall into squabbling that we haven’t seen since the dissolution of the Whigs.  I honestly have no idea what follows him if he loses. 

 

20 minutes ago, quigley said:

This is where I'm at.

The GOP knows they need the low propensity voters only Trump brings out. Without Trump, they lose like 2018 and 2022. Plus Trump may try to run for president from prison in 2028 or may flee to Russia. It's all on the table.

I know several chamber of commerce-type GOP. They have similar uncertainty. If they don't know, I don't know how anyone has any certainty.

I don’t see how they can go anywhere. Too many ratfuckers in the republican machine want and need their jobs, so it’s hard to imagine them abandoning their ratfucking ways that they use to gain and maintain power and returning to principled conservatism. I dream about a situation where people run as independents and reps are hyper focused on their districts, but that seems far fetched. 

9 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

SIAP

 

 

Massive scandal? This won’t even be a blip. 

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

33 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

I honestly have no idea what follows him if he loses. 

I don't know what will follow, but I do know it will be even worse.

[Bullneck 19073]

37 minutes ago, Bateshorn said:

The risk/reward for the GOP on his being elected is almost incalculable.  Given that no one has shown even an iota of being able to grasp his mantle, the party is going to fall into squabbling that we haven’t seen since the dissolution of the Whigs.  I honestly have no idea what follows him if he loses. 

I"m naming my band the Squabbling Whigs. Also:

 

 

Edited October 27 by Bullneck

[Slacks 6819]

2 hours ago, Js1 said:

Who is gonna rake if we deport all the Mexicans??

The slaves.

[bluto 4914]

I have a feeling there are more than a few gop’rs who are still yanking that lever but are also deep down not disappointed with a Trump loss. Kinda like in the home stretch of Mack/chuck/tom where ya, we want Texas to win every game but a mountainside crash loss expedites moving on. And not having to look for survivors or wreckage vs an ocean crash. But again, they still don’t have the balls to actually yank the yoke themselves. 

[Hugo Stiglitz 23367]

42 minutes ago, quigley said:

This is where I'm at.

The GOP knows they need the low propensity voters only Trump brings out. Without Trump, they lose like 2018 and 2022. Plus Trump may try to run for president from prison in 2028 or may flee to Russia. It's all on the table.

I know several chamber of commerce-type GOP. They have similar uncertainty. If they don't know, I don't know how anyone has any certainty.

The “Christian” nationalist types are the GOP voting base.  This base has been cultivated and radicalized for over 40 years.  Many of these people believe it is impossible to be a democrat and Christian.  As long as billionaires and politicians are willing to demagogue to these morons for power and expediency, it’s going to be an unsolvable problem for the foreseeable future.  

[RomaVicta 29902]

7 hours ago, wood said:

Yep. Exactly. I said it before and I'll probably say it again, I've been voting in Presidential elections since 1984, and I've never seen anything even remotely like this. And people have to realize these defections don't happen in a vacuum. When this many prominent Republicans are denouncing their party's own presidential candidate, there are a whole lot more voters that are thinking and doing the same.

Kamala's gonna win, y'all. 

You should try being a Democrat. We're used to it.

 

ps I think you're right.

[HenryJames 66038]

[quigley 1562]

25 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

 

I don’t see how they can go anywhere. Too many ratfuckers in the republican machine want and need their jobs, so it’s hard to imagine them abandoning their ratfucking ways that they use to gain and maintain power and returning to principled conservatism. I dream about a situation where people run as independents and reps are hyper focused on their districts, but that seems far fetched.

We agree.

The people I know aren't the ratfuckers but are ratfucker-adjacent (at least that's what they claim). They see the diminishing marginal returns on their current strategy. Not that their worried about the harms it causes, but because they see latching their wagon to rapidly declining 80 year old idiot as a bad bargain. None of the potential heirs to the mantle (Vance, Tucker, Don Jr) have the "charisma" of the orange buffoon.

They've also painted themselves into an corner. They have to hope that we have collective amnesia and that Elon washes their 9 years of bad takes from the internet.

[South Austin 52456]

17 minutes ago, bluto said:

Kinda like in the home stretch of Mack/chuck/tom where ya, we want Texas to win every game but a mountainside crash loss expedites moving on. 

Donald Trump is textbook Fuck You Pay Me.

[Mo Horn 8831]

5 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

Perfect time and place for a well placed meteor. 

[BamaATL 16593]

Georgia EV overnight update

1. 2.791 million votes now cast

2.  2020 Early Votes now stand at 2.11 million (200k shy of 2020) 75.5% of total

3.  2020 Day of Voters 192k 6.9% of total

4.  2020 non voters 493k 17.6% of total this is the story, young voters 18-29 lead this with 163k.  Among previous non voters, Clayton, Dekalb, Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett make up approximately 180k.  

5.  Females outpace males by 320k, but remain at 55.5%

 

 

 

[quigley 1562]

9 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The “Christian” nationalist types are the GOP voting base.  This base has been cultivated and radicalized for over 40 years.  Many of these people believe it is impossible to be a democrat and Christian.  As long as billionaires and politicians are willing to demagogue to these morons for power and expediency, it’s going to be an unsolvable problem for the foreseeable future.  

We're all agreeing.

GOP has a huge problem. Their solution to the problem to control American society and suppress dissent:

Win this election at all cost

Consolidate power in the presidency -- check, thank you John Roberts

Voter suppression -- check, thank you John Roberts

Bring business and media interests under control of GOP machine by threats -- appears to be working based on Bezos's actions

[RomaVicta 29902]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

The risk/reward for the GOP on his being elected is almost incalculable.  Given that no one has shown even an iota of being able to grasp his mantle, the party is going to fall into squabbling that we haven’t seen since the dissolution of the Whigs.  I honestly have no idea what follows him if he loses. 

I agree. His most vile and vehement followers are not dyed in the wool GOPs. They voted for and dedicated themselves to Trump as much because he was different from the GOP pols as he was from the ebil libs. The GOP must keep that bloc in the house if they want to have a chance of holding power and protecting their criminal organization.

There will certainly be profound conflict between McConnell's mob, Donald's mob, and people who want the GOP to actually stand for something. I don't know know how it will work out, but if any of those groups split off, it's over for the GOP for quite some time. 

Will the hate engine keep them all addicted?

I'm sure the Dems will do enough stupid things to help keep the GOP together, but will that be enough? Will GOP lies about Dem policies be enough?

Will being the party of lies ever haunt the GOP?

Will the TV news media do their part and cover the news instead of just the election? (Early results say hell no.)

[David Dennison 18851]

16 minutes ago, Hugo Stiglitz said:

The “Christian” nationalist types are the GOP voting base.  This base has been cultivated and radicalized for over 40 years.  Many of these people believe it is impossible to be a democrat and Christian.  As long as billionaires and politicians are willing to demagogue to these morons for power and expediency, it’s going to be an unsolvable problem for the foreseeable future.  

The solution according to Democrats: move right.

[David Dennison 18851]

2 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

Will the hate engine keep them all addicted?

[quigley 1562]

2 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Georgia EV overnight update

1. 2.791 million votes now cast

2.  2020 Early Votes now stand at 2.11 million (200k shy of 2020) 75.5% of total

3.  2020 Day of Voters 192k 6.9% of total

4.  2020 non voters 493k 17.6% of total this is the story, young voters 18-29 lead this with 163k.  Among previous non voters, Clayton, Dekalb, Fulton, Cobb, Gwinnett make up approximately 180k.  

5.  Females outpace males by 320k, but remain at 55.5%

I agree with you that 493k 2020 non-voters is the story. But who are these people? Most of them (2/3), are not young so had the opportunity to vote in 2020 but didn't.

Is Stacy Abrams machine mobilizing a bunch of new voters, again? Has Roe energized more women? Or has Elon placed brain control devices in a bunch of Georgia Bulldog fans?

Is this good or bad news?

[Brisketexan 105079]

the party is going to fall into squabbling that we haven’t seen since the dissolution of the Whigs.

The dissolution of the Whigs? It’s no rectification of the Vuldronaii, but we can work with it.

[RomaVicta 29902]

Cheryl, you're getting sleepy. Sleepy.

Are you trying to hypnotize me?

Just waitin' on the roofie.

[TwiceHorn 31440]

1 hour ago, Bateshorn said:

The risk/reward for the GOP on his being elected is almost incalculable.  Given that no one has shown even an iota of being able to grasp his mantle, the party is going to fall into squabbling that we haven’t seen since the dissolution of the Whigs.  I honestly have no idea what follows him if he loses. 

As evidenced by Project 2025, their actual policy proposals are wildly unpopular.

They've been able to stealthily and incrementally inject christofascism into state governments like Texas using unelected officials.  Paxton and Abbott are doing things in the open now and drawing criticism and suspicion and without Trump mobilizing the rurals they may finally start to lose their grip.

Without Trumpism, they won't have that ability to get elected on his coattails and using his idiot-savant rhetoric.

It's going to be something to see.

Edited October 27 by TwiceHorn

[Bullneck 19073]

23 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

"OK, class today we're going to make a poster.  We want to work on is cutting individual images and pasting them into a single file.  It can be for anything so if you want to do your football team you can do that, or something else, it doesn't matter. So everyone start up Photoshop and look for a background image and then websearch to find the inserts.  You need at least 15 because we really want to practice this. I'll come by everybody's desk to see how you're doing."

(Edit: "Someone just asked me if the people you insert have to be related to the subject. No, I don't care about the subject matter; it can be anyone.  It just needs to be at least 15 people").

Edited October 27 by Bullneck

[David Dennison 18851]

2 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

As evidenced by Project 2025, their actual policy proposals are wildly unpopular.

They've been able to stealthily and incrementally inject christofascism into state governments like Texas using unelected officials.

Without Trumpism, they won't have that ability to get elected on his coattails and using his idiot-savant rhetoric.

It's going to be something to see.

And yet, Democrats seem to hedge when given the opportunity to run on popular policies like taxing the rich, universal healthcare, protecting Social Security and Medicare, and protecting a woman's right to choose.

[BamaATL 16593]

3 minutes ago, quigley said:

I agree with you that 493k 2020 non-voters is the story. But who are these people? Most of them (2/3), are not young so had the opportunity to vote in 2020 but didn't.

Is Stacy Abrams machine mobilizing a bunch of new voters, again? Has Roe energized more women? Or has Elon placed brain control devices in a bunch of Georgia Bulldog fans?

Is this good or bad news?

Again, look at where the vast majority of these votes are.  40% of the non voter is from 5 counties (out of 159 total), some of whom have a historical percentage of Democratic margin of 90% (each county varies some as low as 60%).  In any event, it's reasonable to believe that while this vote varies it a bit, it doesn't deviate dramatically from the area.  For example, in Dekalb County, which is an 85% Democratic County, 40k worth of Trump voters didn't just suddenly move there.  This is a heavy turnout, in strongly Democratic areas of previously non engaged or low engaged voters.   

Again, of the 180k out of 492k I pointed, out I only went into 5 major Democratic counties, there are others.  The nonvoter turnout in Democratic counties is easily half of the statewide total.  Even if Republicans take 55% to 45% everywhere else, they can't overcome 70% to 30% in the Democratic areas.   

 

[Fudge Nuggets 19189]

7 minutes ago, David Dennison said:

And yet, Democrats seem to hedge when given the opportunity to run on popular policies like taxing the rich, universal healthcare, protecting Social Security and Medicare, and protecting a woman's right to choose.

That's communism.  Can't be having no communism 'round here.

[Firemans4Horn 18036]

31 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19100]

28 minutes ago, Mo Horn said:

Perfect time and place for a well placed meteor. 

Um, no. Massive sinkhole, yes.

[Bullneck 19073]

6 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Again, look at where the vast majority of these votes are.  40% of the non voter is from 5 counties (out of 159 total), some of whom have a historical percentage of Democratic margin of 90% (each county varies some as low as 60%).  In any event, it's reasonable to believe that while this vote varies it a bit, it doesn't deviate dramatically from the area.  For example, in Dekalb County, which is an 85% Democratic County, 40k worth of Trump voters didn't just suddenly move there.  This is a heavy turnout, in strongly Democratic areas of previously non engaged or low engaged voters.   

Again, of the 180k out of 492k I pointed, out I only went into 5 major Democratic counties, there are others.  The nonvoter turnout in Democratic counties is easily half of the statewide total.  Even if Republicans take 55% to 45% everywhere else, they can't overcome 70% to 30% in the Democratic areas.   

So it sounds like a whole lot of first time or intermittent voters have registered and voted and they are located in traditionally Democratic areas.  That would be really good. 

[Bullneck 19073]

Just now, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Um, no. Massive sinkhole, yes.

How about Legionaire's Disease? 

If Penn Station gets hit with a meteor I have to park at Newport Mall and use the PATH to get to my office. 

[BamaATL 16593]

2 minutes ago, Bullneck said:

So it sounds like a whole lot of first time or intermittent voters have registered and voted and they are located in traditionally Democratic areas.  That would be really good. 

This is correct.