2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[texas08 1599]

2 hours ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Is this the actual front page or the front page of the opinion section?

front page or it don’t mean shit 

[chainsaw 9860]

I hope so, too.

The only women who are anti-Kamala are those who are married to men of questionable values.

[Chopper 17230]

5 hours ago, quigley said:

 

Polling has fucked us for the last decade.

The polls have terribly low response rates (2.5% from NYT-Siena) so they have massive error bars. If they reported their true data, with possibly 10 - 15% margin of error (or more), people would stop listening to pollsters. The pollsters want to keep their jobs so they dial down the margin of error to ~ 5% and include the 50% threshold in their error. By doing this, they appear to be herding, even if they don't aren't explicitly compromising their data.

Tight polling gives the appearance of a tight race so news outlets have a game to cover instead of focusing on policy and competency, which are boring. This reporting is a self-fulfilling prophecy, increasing anxiety and distrust in the populous.

Just another comment about polls to emphasize your point about quality. Mailing people to get response gets the most useful, reliable results (it's what Gallup does) but you can't really do that in a campaign. (edit - I should say it's much more expensive and time consuming, so most pollsters don't do it.) Figuring out LV's is still problematic, however. Last week there was a notable mail poll released in NH.

Biden won the state in 2020 by 7.5. Here's the results from the contact by mail poll. Harris is shown massively over-performing. Again, a warning about LV's though. You never know who's going to vote! 

 

 

3 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Um, no. Massive sinkhole, yes.

Whatever way is fine with me. Main criteria is that it be an event not covered by insurance so that it costs James Dolan billions to replace or repair.  

Edited October 27 by Chopper

[Chopper 17230]

Yesterday there was a short conversation about the amount of history we don't learn in schools. These aren't the most significant historical facts I've learned this year but they are top of mind. First is that George Washington was gay. Second is that -- speaking of MSG -- when Marilyn sang happy bday to jfk, her dress purposely became see-through due to the lighting effects. Previously I'd only seen the b/w version.

 

[wood 11225]

1 hour ago, Nice Guy Eddie said:

Hope we finally get to learn how much Trump is paying for MSG or perhaps Dolan just giving it to him for free.

He's probably giving it to him for free either way, whether he knows it or not.

[softlynow 1814]

I think losing Penn Station would cost tax payers a fuck ton and would probably cripple the NY and NJ economies.

[Bateshorn 9927]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

He totally suns his taint, Doesn’t he?

[locodos 5387]

1 hour ago, Pancho said:

some advice from the Florida (checks notes) Surgeon General

 

[Haphap 741]

 

[Clintonaldo 2573]

I’ve noticed my Trump friends are more and more loud with me trying to get me to respond and I stay quiet and ignore it. It kind of feels like they are concerned and know they are losing. 

[wood 11225]

I was going to quote someone from earlier but now I can't find the post. The gist of the post was that they're skeptical of the idea that Republicans voting for Harris will be the difference that wins her the election.

That's not what anyone is saying, to my knowledge. Kamala's going to win (and win fairly bigly imho), but it won't be because of any one group imho. It will be because of the broad coalition she's been building among women, young/new voters, black voters, brown voters, LGBTQ+ voters, white educated men, making inroads with white high school grad men, and the NeverAgainTrump voters. Apologies if I left anyone out. That is why Kamala will win.

Edited October 27 by wood

[quigley 1562]

12 minutes ago, locodos said:

some advice from the Florida (checks notes) Surgeon General

 

I'm not pro-weed or anti-weed. Cause i don't know. Govt has obstructed meaningful research for decades. 

This position is idiotic more than anything, but it isn't the reason I'm disgusted by this guy. He has far worse ideas and has done worse shit for his state.

Dude's a sellout of the highest order. He knows better. Disgrace.

 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 19100]

25 minutes ago, softlynow said:

I think losing Penn Station would cost tax payers a fuck ton and would probably cripple the NY and NJ economies.

Penn Station needs an upgrade/replacement. Might be a good thing.

[Clintonaldo 2573]

Just now, wood said:

I was going to quote someone from earlier but now I can't find the post. The gist if the post was that they're skeptical of the idea that Republicans voting for Harris will be the difference that wins her the election.

That's not what anyone is saying, to my knowledge. Kamala's going to win (and win fairly bigly imho), but it won't be because of any one group imho. It will be because of the broad coalition she's been building among women, young/new voters, black voters, brown voters, LGBTQ+ voters, white educated men, making inroads with white high school grad men, and the NeverAgainTrump voters. Apologies if I left anyone out. That is why Kamala will win.

I agree. Decent people from all demographics coming together. On paper I am a slam dunk Trump voter but it ain’t happening. 

[Francisco 2.0 32389]

 

 

 

[The Dog 44019]

 

[SimonBolivar 10957]

1 hour ago, Underdog said:

Vitamins Trump consumes… 

 

Listen man

[cactusflinthead 27598]

[4th&Five 41519]

16 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

I’ve noticed my Trump friends are more and more loud with me trying to get me to respond and I stay quiet and ignore it. It kind of feels like they are concerned and know they are losing. 

To each their own but I can’t imagine hanging out with vocal Trumpers. 

[SydneyCarton 48067]

44 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I hope so, too.

The only women who are anti-Kamala are those who are married to men of questionable values.

This sadly isn’t true. There are plenty of evangelical women, many who never got married, who will pull that lever for trump. 

16 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

I’ve noticed my Trump friends are more and more loud with me trying to get me to respond and I stay quiet and ignore it. It kind of feels like they are concerned and know they are losing. 

No, they absolutely believe they’re winning. Because they’re either stupid or Brainwashed or both, but either way they believe the propaganda. 

[cactusflinthead 27598]

 

[Clintonaldo 2573]

Just now, 4th&Five said:

To each their own but I can’t imagine hanging out with vocal Trumpers. 

I get it but then I am no better than them if I do that. I don’t mind different opinions 

[Pato del Muerto 52487]

12 minutes ago, quigley said:

I'm not pro-weed or anti-weed. Cause i don't know. Govt has obstructed meaningful research for decades. 

This position is idiotic more than anything, but it isn't the reason I'm disgusted by this guy. He has far worse ideas and has done worse shit for his state.

Dude's a sellout of the highest order. He knows better. Disgrace.

 

Meanwhile, trump’s health minister rfk jr wants us all to take psychedelics. Which is fine if they have a purpose that is documented as safe and efficacious, but it’s a tough sell to be pro-psychedelics and also anti-weed. 

[Macanudo 12976]

I want that SKO COACH sign.

[quigley 1562]

2 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

Meanwhile, trump’s health minister rfk jr wants us all to take psychedelics. Which is fine if they have a purpose that is documented as safe and efficacious, but it’s a tough sell to be pro-psychedelics and also anti-weed. 

Raw milk for everyone!

Make Listeria Great Again!

Leave aside anything else the catastrophic effect on American health should be enough for people to end this.

[Macanudo 12976]

2 minutes ago, quigley said:

Raw milk for everyone!

Make Listeria Great Again!

Leave aside anything else the catastrophic effect on American health should be enough for people to end this.

The problem is that they've been fed a steady diet of "Liberals are coming for your cheeseburgers" by Fox News for so long that they don't beleive the shit coming out of RFK and Trump's mouths.

[Radical Larry 28566]

9 minutes ago, cactusflinthead said:

 

Trump is a shitass. 

[quigley 1562]

23 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

 

 

I don't know if I'm opening the door for Heisenberg

[heso 2788]

 I honestly have no idea what follows him if he loses. 

[wood 11225]

 

[Brisketexan 105083]

9 minutes ago, wood said:

 

Cool, Elmo.  Name some of those "principles" and "teachings."  Truly, I wanna hear that.

[mchookem 16324]

27 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

I get it but then I am no better than them if I do that. I don’t mind different opinions 

me either. i enjoy debate and i especially enjoy learning new info and perspectives.

my issue is i literally cannot tolerate morons, assholes, and moronic assholes. which pretty much rules out 95% of Trump supporters.

[Bozo_Casanova 26438]

3 hours ago, BamaATL said:

Again, look at where the vast majority of these votes are.  40% of the non voter is from 5 counties (out of 159 total), some of whom have a historical percentage of Democratic margin of 90% (each county varies some as low as 60%).  In any event, it's reasonable to believe that while this vote varies it a bit, it doesn't deviate dramatically from the area.  For example, in Dekalb County, which is an 85% Democratic County, 40k worth of Trump voters didn't just suddenly move there.  This is a heavy turnout, in strongly Democratic areas of previously non engaged or low engaged voters.   

Again, of the 180k out of 492k I pointed, out I only went into 5 major Democratic counties, there are others.  The nonvoter turnout in Democratic counties is easily half of the statewide total.  Even if Republicans take 55% to 45% everywhere else, they can't overcome 70% to 30% in the Democratic areas.   

 

Good post and I agree on all BUT I really don’t like all the older new voters.

[Clintonaldo 2573]

4 minutes ago, mchookem said:

me either. i enjoy debate and i especially enjoy learning new info and perspectives.

my issue is i literally cannot tolerate morons, assholes, and moronic assholes. which pretty much rules out 95% of Trump supporters.

You aren’t wrong. I just personally like to challenge things in a polite manner and watch most crumble. I can always say let’s just drop it because this isn’t productive which somehow makes them more mad. 

[wood 11225]

 

[Brisketexan 105083]

1 minute ago, wood said:

 

Bingo.  The internet makes it easy to pull up newspapers from 130 years ago or so.  Pull them up, and read the anti-immigrant rants in there bitching about the Italians, Irish, and various other European ethnicities (and Chinese, if you pull up west coast papers).....they are literally, almost word-for-word, the EXACT fucking rants that the MAGAs are giving today.  All these ethnicities, which are now considered pretty damned American....MAGA fucking HATED.  

MAGA: busy being wrong about immigrants for fucking centuries.  Pretty impressive track record of idiocy, frankly.

[mchookem 16324]

i mean is he worried Bubba Gumps is gonna shut down?

[mdmost 43001]

6 minutes ago, wood said:

 

And the Polish, the Irish, the Jews, and the Chinese. 

[Chips O'Toole 1322]

8 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Good post and I agree on all BUT I really don’t like all the older new voters.

Little ingredients like this combined with the PA registration fraud and sprinkled with Trump's cronies pushing for early voting...starts to resemble a recipe for full-on fuckery. 

I know I am being paranoid, but we can't pretend these people haven't been think-tanking ideas for how to actually steal an election over the last four years. 

[G650 14246]

I honestly don't know what to make of the older new voters. Truly. What would possess them to come out for Trump after all these years?

[mdmost 43001]

Fear of a changing world that's left them behind. That and Fox News propaganda. 

[Gil Bang 25922]

14 minutes ago, Brisketexan said:

Bingo.  The internet makes it easy to pull up newspapers from 130 years ago or so.  Pull them up, and read the anti-immigrant rants in there bitching about the Italians, Irish, and various other European ethnicities (and Chinese, if you pull up west coast papers).....they are literally, almost word-for-word, the EXACT fucking rants that the MAGAs are giving today.  All these ethnicities, which are now considered pretty damned American....MAGA fucking HATED.  

MAGA: busy being wrong about immigrants for fucking centuries.  Pretty impressive track record of idiocy, frankly.

"we'll give some land to the..."

[G650 14246]

1 minute ago, mdmost said:

Fear of a changing world that's left them behind. That and Fox News propaganda. 

But why now? That's been the spiel for years.

 

What I'm getting at is why assume they are for Trump. They may be, I honestly have no idea. It just seems he is the same thing, where Harris is different.

[Macanudo 12976]

1 minute ago, G650 said:

But why now? That's been the spiel for years.

 

What I'm getting at is why assume they are for Trump. They may be, I honestly have no idea. It just seems he is the same thing, where Harris is different.

Because Boomers (and older Gen Xers) mortality has finally sunk in on them.

[texastough 1129]

29 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Good post and I agree on all BUT I really don’t like all the older new voters.

Weren't the 18-29 segment something like 1/3 of new early voters? Do we know the typical vote share (of new voters) from that age group?

edit to clarify share of new voters

Edited October 27 by texastough

[wood 11225]

39 minutes ago, G650 said:

I honestly don't know what to make of the older new voters. Truly. What would possess them to come out for Trump after all these years?

Personally I believe there are probably a fair number of those older new/returning voters who are coming back out of fear of the damage Trump will do to the Republic.

Edited October 27 by wood

[Bozo_Casanova 26438]

2 minutes ago, texastough said:

Weren't the 18-29 segment something like 1/3 of the early vote? Isn't that way bigger than the typical vote share from that age group?

Yes I think so, and that’s good, but I am not a fan of low propensity voters over 35. That screams Danica Patrick to me. 

[Aqua Buddha 14582]

38 minutes ago, wood said:

 

Serious question, has he ever been to NYC?  Outside of Times Square, you hear all sorts of languages.

[G650 14246]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Yes I think so, and that’s good, but I am not a fan of low propensity voters over 35. That screams Danica Patrick to me. 

I just had to listen to that dumb bitch on the F1 prerace show.

[Red Five 40847]

"Hey J.D. Vance, how's it goin---"

"BROWN PEOPLE! NOT ENOUGH WHITE PEOPLE! NEED MORE WHITE PEOPLE EVERYWHERE"