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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Huckleberry

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2 hours ago, G650 said:

But why now? That's been the spiel for years.

 

What I'm getting at is why assume they are for Trump. They may be, I honestly have no idea. It just seems he is the same thing, where Harris is different.

I agree that new old voters will not be as heavily R as historical old voters. However I think the down that they will still break in Trump's favor is valid. But my gut is they will be much closer to 50/50 than the ones who have spent decades being turned into party over country dummies.

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bolverk

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3 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I agree that new old voters will not be as heavily R as historical old voters. However I think the down that they will still break in Trump's favor is valid. But my gut is they will be much closer to 50/50 than the ones who have spent decades being turned into party over country dummies.

Legitimate question: How old are these "newer, older" voters? Are we talking about the elderly or people aged 40+ or older? Because if we're talking about the latter, couldn't these be professionals/immigrants who've recently relocated to the booming Atlanta metropolitan area?

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aggie08

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6 minutes ago, immamac said:

I think this rally is gonna need its own thread, xposts are fine but this seems like it may devolve into something historically bad and separate from the whole campaign. 

This has been their entire campaign for anyone who has been listening. Not sure this will make a dent on those who haven't.

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G650

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6 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

I agree that new old voters will not be as heavily R as historical old voters. However I think the down that they will still break in Trump's favor is valid. But my gut is they will be much closer to 50/50 than the ones who have spent decades being turned into party over country dummies.

Yeah I am not saying they won't break Trump. What the makeup will be, I don't know. I suspect they will be not as Trunmpy as well, but that's just speculation on my part. I really just want to know after 8 years of this who could possibly be coming off the sidelines for him now.

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mdmost

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9 minutes ago, immamac said:

I think this rally is gonna need its own thread, xposts are fine but this seems like it may devolve into something historically bad and separate from the whole campaign. 

Nah. It doesn't need anymore oxygen. Sadly the oxygen can't be snuffed out of that arena and save the world a lot of heartache. The only place covering it is the typical Trump spots. No mainstream media is going to cover it except for the lowlights. 

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chainsaw

chainsaw 9869

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Didn't Dolan install high def facial recognition? I thought all these MAGA types were paranoid about personal freedoms and surveillance. Anyone who attended this rally, and isn't a journalist covering it, belongs on a list.

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Chad Fuck

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Didn't Dolan install high def facial recognition? I thought all these MAGA types were paranoid about personal freedoms and surveillance. Anyone who attended this rally, and isn't a journalist covering it, belongs on a list.

They think they’re on the “good” list.
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Foggy Notion

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24 minutes ago, C-Man said:


A buddy of mine just let me know Hinchcliffe is ultra tight with Rogan

This is true. He was in LA for over a decade where he hosted his Kill Tony podcast and built a reputation as an insult comedian. He moved to Austin in 2020 after Rogan moved here. After Covid, Texas opened up its venues before California so Hinchcliffe and others were able to do their standup here and make a living here which they couldn’t do in LA.

My GF and I went to several Kill Tony tapings here in Austin because we enjoy comedy and we were going stir crazy during the pandemic. I’m very familiar with his brand of comedy. It’s meant to offend in many ways including racial humor. I’ve laughed at his jokes before while putting money in his pocket, but never again. Fuck this guy.

He’s saying the racist shit that they can’t say out loud, and he’s saying it at a rally in MSG. And then say he’s just joking.

 

 

 

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wood

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9 minutes ago, Foggy Notion said:

This is true. He was in LA for over a decade where he hosted his Kill Tony podcast and built a reputation as an insult comedian. He moved to Austin in 2020 after Rogan moved here. After Covid, Texas opened up its venues before California so Hinchcliffe and others were able to do their standup here and make a living here which they couldn’t do in LA.

My GF and I went to several Kill Tony tapings here in Austin because we enjoy comedy and we were going stir crazy during the pandemic. I’m very familiar with his brand of comedy. It’s meant to offend in many ways including racial humor. I’ve laughed at his jokes before while putting money in his pocket, but never again. Fuck this guy.

He’s saying the racist shit that they can’t say out loud, and he’s saying it at a rally in MSG. And then say he’s just joking.

Este. I'm guilty as well. Tony can be a very funny guy, but this wasn't funny. In a comedy club setting his comments of today would probably come off more on the sarcasm/irony/parody side ... but in this setting, they don't ring the same way and come off more as him expressing those hateful thoughts as his own. Maybe that's not how he meant it, but man, I don't see how he can justify it in a political setting such as that one. I'm done supporting him, too.

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berlinerbaer

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1 hour ago, bolverk said:

I visited New Mexico for 20 minutes the other day, and as a result, I'm a little high today, so forgive me if my hypothesis is a little off.

It seems like BamaATL is saying that a lot of these newer, older voters are in large, historically Democratic counties. If it holds true that the core counties of larger metropolitan areas trend Democratic AND also are the places where both domestic and international migrants often go to when they move to a growing state (like Georgia), then isn't it possible that these new voters happen to also be new registrants of people who've moved there in the past four years?

I think the breakdown of newer voters in GA can tell us where the newer voters are coming from or how old they are, but not both.

My somewhat pessimistic best guess is that they are recent arrivals from other states, retirees probably like elsewhere in the Sunbelt, and likely leaning Trump. The silver lining is that some of them are leaving the northern swing states and making them bluer.

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StassneyHorn

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You guys seriously don’t know about Kill Tony? Hugely popular. Mostly shock jock racist takes

As far as new voters in Georgia, there can be a coattails effect on wanting to be part of a winner now that their votes truly mean something. If you’re a driver in Georgia, you are opted into registering to vote, so that’s a cleared hurdle as well.

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aggie08

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9 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

I wouldn't go this far (not that I'd be surprised if there's some truth to it), but this does feel purposeful. Like they're hoping to draw outrage, so they can play the hits and bring back "Cancel Culture!" and "they want to censor your speech!" as a last ditch Hail Mary.

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mdmost

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2 minutes ago, StassneyHorn said:

You guys seriously don’t know about Kill Tony? Hugely popular. Mostly shock jock racist takes

As far as new voters in Georgia, there can be a coattails effect on wanting to be part of a winner now that their votes truly mean something. If you’re a driver in Georgia, you are opted into registering to vote, so that’s a cleared hurdle as well.

Was that the fairly unfunny dildo making fun of the student trying to kick the FG when Gameday was in Austin? He did multiple Brokeback jokes which told me he really didn't have much. 

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BamaATL

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3 hours ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Good post and I agree on all BUT I really don’t like all the older new voters.

Understandable thought.  and I don't get demographic numbers on voters from each particular county, so I don't definitely know where the older voters are coming from.  There are a couple of things I'd point to in regard to this:

1.  The data I have access to only tracks 2020 and 2024, so these older voters might have participated in the past, just not in 2020.  

2.  We know some level of non participation in 2020 and even more so 2016 was due to dissatisfaction with the candidates.  

3.  Based on that, I wouldn't immediately rule against the older non voters being enthused by one candidate, hence the turnout.  It stands to reason that they are enthused by Harris, not Trump (they've had 2 previous options to vote for him and didn't in at least one of them with the data we have).  That makes more sense to me than saying that suddenly they are enthused to vote for Trump out of nowhere.  

Quite obviously, without definitely data, it's all a bit of guess work and the truth is, this vote will split, it's just a question by how much.  

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G650

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14 minutes ago, berlinerbaer said:

My somewhat pessimistic best guess is that they are recent arrivals from other states, retirees probably like elsewhere in the Sunbelt, and likely leaning Trump. The silver lining is that some of them are leaving the northern swing states and making them bluer

This is the piece of the puzzle I can't totally get, because there hasn't been that kind of migration like the other states, it's been more professional class heading to metros.

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StassneyHorn

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6 minutes ago, mdmost said:

Was that the fairly unfunny dildo making fun of the student trying to kick the FG when Gameday was in Austin? He did multiple Brokeback jokes which told me he really didn't have much. 

Yea, seemed really forced. He was a writer for the Comedy Central roasts as well and had the best set at Tom Brady’s.

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Francisco 2.0

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https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-fans-forced-to-pee-in-bottles-while-in-line-for-nyc-rally/

 

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Donald Trump supporters found themselves in far than ideal circumstances while waiting in line for admission to the Republican president candidate’s rally at Madison Square Garden.

Some particularly passionate fans had camped out in Manhattan overnight—in some cases, for multiple nights—in advance of the Sunday event, but were caught short after realizing there were no toilets available.

“We’re peeing in bags and little cups, and we had to put up a little portable privacy shower so people didn’t have to look at each other when they did that,” one such camper told the New York Post, having arrived for the rally on Friday morning.

 

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The 59-year-old woman told the Post that leaving to find a restroom would have resulted in expulsion from the line, prompting the most devout MAGA followers to get crafty in search of relief.

“We had to do this. Insane!” she said, revealing plastic bottles-turned-portable toilets.

“Why didn’t they put any porta potties out here for us? Why did the city decide not to do that? It’s like a third-world country!” (Note:  Since this isn't a city event, so....why would the city put out toilets)

While many turned to makeshift bathroom set-ups, others decided to simply avoid liquids so as not to fall victim to the call of nature.

 

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The Post also spoke to one single parent who’d arrived at Madison Square Garden early Sunday morning with her 7-year-old daughter—who she described as a keen Trump fan. 

“You just can’t drink any fluids. We got here a little after 6 a.m.... so we’re going to tough it out and not drink or eat anything. It’s kind of insane that there’s no provision at all for people who are going to be waiting this long,” the woman said.

 

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horncyclist

horncyclist 1387

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Depressing and hopeful insides anecdotes I heard this weekend:

1) labor organizer friends wife said labor organizer who’s on the ground in Michigan says things don’t feel good in canvassing efforts. No idea who they’re targeting.

2) Neighbor whose wife is fairly senior in campaign, working in Delaware full time last few months, said campaign is optimistic internally. Haven’t seen the movement to Trump public polls have shown. Feeling really good about GOTV advantages.

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Tuco

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31 minutes ago, wood said:

Este. I'm guilty as well. Tony can be a very funny guy, but this wasn't funny. In a comedy club setting his comments of today would probably come off more on the sarcasm/irony/parody side ... but in this setting, they don't ring the same way and come off more as him expressing those hateful thoughts as his own. Maybe that's not how he meant it, but man, I don't see how he can justify it in a political setting such as that one. I'm done supporting him, too.

Right.  And when the get blowback for racist or other "non-PC" stuff at a show, they push back with "hey this is a comedy act, not meant to be taken seriously, chill out, just having fun, etc..) When it's part of a political rally, you don't get that cover anymore.  You just don't.  And it demonstrates it was never just about having fun.  

But, at the end of the day, he will gain some following out of this.  So, he achieved his goal.  So did some other speakers.  I don't think they helped Donald much.  

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tx 3 putt

tx 3 putt 76958

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2 minutes ago, immamac said:

They may have fucked that up. 

 

love that florida number

 

 

37 minutes ago, wood said:

Este. I'm guilty as well. Tony can be a very funny guy, but this wasn't funny. In a comedy club setting his comments of today would probably come off more on the sarcasm/irony/parody side ... but in this setting, they don't ring the same way and come off more as him expressing those hateful thoughts as his own. Maybe that's not how he meant it, but man, I don't see how he can justify it in a political setting such as that one. I'm done supporting him, too.

 

did he say that stuff on purpose to tank trump ?

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Captainant

Captainant 27669

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24 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

Idgaf if already posted but Techs kicker had a fake field goal touchdown, raised his shirt to show TRUMP MAGA written on his under shirt. He missed a field goal later in that quarter and they ended up losing by 1 pt. Get fucked dipshit. 

slorch'd!

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