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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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14 hours ago, Ghost of LL said:

Jesus Christ--is this what a Yale education gets you these days?

London hasn't felt like an English city in 300 years.  It's an Imperial capital.  It feels like an Imperial capital.  It has felt like an Imperial capital for three centuries.  When you land at Heathrow, you land alongside flights from the Subcontinent, from the Caribbean, and from the Antipodes.  Then when you take the Elizabeth Line in, you're going to be next to people from right across the old Empire.  And when you get into town, you'll get some kick-ass Chinese, Jamaican, and Pakistani food--all because many of those families came to London when London was still their capital, too.

For its part, New York isn't "American."  It was a Dutch colony.  Actually, it was an enterprise of the Dutch East India Company.  And the Company didn't give a fuck whether you came from the Netherlands or England or Italy.  The Company didn't care whether you were Protestant or Catholic or Jewish or Muslim or nothing in particular.  The Company cared that you would be economically beneficial for New Netherlands.  These weren't religious zealots like you had up in Boston.  New York has always been multicultural from the moment it was founded--intentionally so.

 

Do they seriously not teach this shit at Yale anymore?

That's a MAGA nightmare.

They're at the airport. They're on the trains. The city stinks of their weird food. And you can't even walk around with your AR or Glock for protection (or to render medical aid if you're Rittenhouse). It's hell. 

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4 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

This thread is about the only data point (using that term facetiously) I have for hopium at this point. All other anecdotal evidence in my real life signals a Trump win, even while living in an ostensibly blue bubble like Manhattan. Hope the sentiment/AI on this thread prevails, but I’m expecting 4 years of shit.

Solution: Don't have a real life.  

I've been at home with a newborn the last few weeks, consuming less NPR, interacting with fewer people, generally holing myself up in bed/on the couch while visiting this thread with an alarming amount of frequency. And I feel GREAT! 

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8 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

This thread is about the only data point (using that term facetiously) I have for hopium at this point. All other anecdotal evidence in my real life signals a Trump win, even while living in an ostensibly blue bubble like Manhattan. Hope the sentiment/AI on this thread prevails, but I’m expecting 4 years of shit.

Let's imagine your team has a one point lead and it's jump ball with 5 seconds on the clock. What about that signals the other team winning?

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8 minutes ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

This thread is about the only data point (using that term facetiously) I have for hopium at this point. All other anecdotal evidence in my real life signals a Trump win, even while living in an ostensibly blue bubble like Manhattan. Hope the sentiment/AI on this thread prevails, but I’m expecting 4 years of shit.

Welcome to the club, we're planning a trip down Guyana way. I'm bringing the Flavor Aid.

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7 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

If he's elected it won't be just 4 years. Your best case is somehow democracy isn't dismantled during his term, but the project 2025 and economic damage will take decades to recover from...and he's going to dismantle democracy. 

He'll need a lot of help from passive Democrats.

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I’ve enjoyed Kill Tony clips on YouTube but he’s always the worst part of any bit, just endless sarcasm, and his tamer race jokes never feel like their coming from a place of genuine satire, which is how other comedians make race humor work. His audience always felt overwhelmingly bro so I guess it makes sense. Since his huge crowds are probably 90% maga anyway I’m sure there will be zero repercussions. He’ll have one of his Black regulars stand up for him and he’ll play the “Black friend” routine. And like his type always does I bet he triples down on it in his next few shows, selectively going after individual Latin American countries. 

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8 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Let's imagine your team has a one point lead and it's jump ball with 5 seconds on the clock. What about that signals the other team winning?

In that imaginary scenario I’d probably feel good, but I’m not convinced that’s the correct framing of the situation. But again, I’m not out here analyzing and unskewing polls and EV data, so I hope you all turn out to be right. 

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1 minute ago, Reynolds Woodcock said:

In that imaginary scenario I’d probably feel good, but I’m not convinced that’s the correct framing of the situation. But again, I’m not out here analyzing and unskewing polls and EV data, so I hope you all turn out to be right. 

I'm not unskewing anything. I'm just looking at the data and applying what we know on top of it. 
1) It's a dead heat in the 7 battlegrounds
3) She has more paths to win
4) She has better GOTV
5) She probably has higher enthusiasm. 

That doesn't mean she wins, but the confidence right now on the Republican side is totally unjustified and could wind up being costly. 

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35 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

Let's imagine your team has a one point lead and it's jump ball with 5 seconds on the clock. What about that signals the other team winning?

Better yet. Imagine UT trails by 5 in the national championship game, with 45 seconds left in the game. Longhorns have the ball on the opponent's 10-yard line, with a first down, 4 shots to win, with QE as QB and Sark calling the plays. Plus, we all remember the Washington game last year.

Speaking for myself, I have near-zero confidence Texas scores to win the title.

(If VY is the QB, I am 100% confident and already celebrating the title.)

Edited by BevoAbyss
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11 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I'm not unskewing anything. I'm just looking at the data and applying what we know on top of it. 
1) It's a dead heat in the 7 battlegrounds
3) She has more paths to win
4) She has better GOTV
5) She probably has higher enthusiasm. 

That doesn't mean she wins, but the confidence right now on the Republican side is totally unjustified and could wind up being costly. 

6.  There is not one data point since Dobbs that suggests Trump is going to win.

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12 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

That doesn't mean she wins, but the confidence right now on the Republican side is totally unjustified and could wind up being costly. 

To add on to this, to the extent that such a thing can be orchestrated, the GOP is working overtime to convince their constituents that Trump WILL win.  I’m not a conspiracy theorist (the rumor there is this is to set in motion support for post loss election fraud claims, as in “how could we lose if all the polls said we were winning?!?!”) but elites in the party are clearly repeating it.  

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3 hours ago, Js1 said:

NYT has Trump +10 in Texas (lol no) but Cruz only +4

Also Harris +12 in NE-02 and only -4 in NE-01

 

This sent me down a rabbit hole, indulge me for a second.

In 2020, there were ten Senate races decided by 10 points or less: Arizona, Colorado, Georgia*, Iowa, Maine, Michigan, Minnesota, New Mexico, North Carolina, and Texas.  Trump underperformed the Senate candidate in 8 of the 10 races.  In Arizona, he overperformed by 2.1% points and in Iowa he overperformed by 1.6%.

There is zero historical evidence, none, to show Trump is capable of consistently running ahead of a competitive Senate race - let alone by the 5+ points that we are seeing in some of these polls.

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52 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

If he's elected it won't be just 4 years. Your best case is somehow democracy isn't dismantled during his term, but the project 2025 and economic damage will take decades to recover from...and he's going to dismantle democracy. 

if he’s elected, sure.  If the Supreme Court plays Calvin Ball, and put him in office???   you might just see some of that patriot blood watering the tree of liberty you’ve heard tell about.

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There is also historical evidence that shows when you shit on people and talk shit directly to them at rallies they may just not vote at all or vote for kamala. 

Studied have also shown when you call Puerto Rico a floating garbage island that those people don't vote for you. 

What do I know though. 

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Fuck Nick Bosa too: https://www.cnn.com/2024/10/28/sport/nick-bosa-donald-trump-hat-49ers-cowboys-spt-intl/index.html

49ers lineman Nick Bosa crashes teammates’ interview to show support for Donald Trump with MAGA hat

Quote

San Francisco 49ers star Nick Bosa crashed his teammates’ postgame interview on Sunday to show his support for former President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election with a hat emblazoned with Trump’s slogan: Make America Great Again.

Following the 49ers’ 30-24 victory over the Dallas Cowboys, 27-year-old Bosa interrupted the postgame interview with Brock Purdy, George Kittle and Isaac Guerendo by jogging between Purdy and NBC’s Melissa Stark before pointing to the message emblazoned on the front of his hat and then running away.

“All right, Nick Bosa with a message there,” Stark said as Bosa jogged off camera.

Speaking to reporters afterward and wearing a different hat, Bosa declined to elaborate on the moment.

“I’m not going to talk too much about it, but I think that it’s an important time,” the four-time Pro Bowler said when asked about what he did. The presidential election between Trump, a Republican, and Vice President Kamala Harris, a Democrat, is on November 5 – a little more than a week after Sunday night’s game.

CNN has reached out to the NFL about their policy on players making political statements.

Related articleSan Francisco 49ers’ Nick Bosa reportedly becomes highest paid NFL defensive player ever

Bosa’s mom, Cheryl, appeared to support her son’s message, reposting a user’s Instagram Story of the moment with the message, “(Cheryl Bosa) you raised your boy right!! #BOSAFORTRUMP.”

Bosa and Trump have long been connected, even before he was drafted by the 49ers with the second overall pick of the 2019 NFL Draft.

During his time at Ohio State, Bosa had previously taken heat for some old political tweets, including tweets supporting Trump and a tweet where he called Colin Kaepernick, a former 49er, a “clown.” Bosa apologized for the remark, according to an NFL.com article from 2019.

“I respect what (Kaepernick’s) done,” Bosa said at a news conference after being drafted in 2019. “If it empowers anybody, then he’s doing a good thing. I apologize for that.”

Kaepernick started the movement of NFL players kneeling for the “Star-Spangled Banner” to protest police brutality and racism. Trump railed against Kaepernick and other protesting players and called on the NFL to take punitive measures against them. Kaepernick later filed suit against the NFL, accusing teams of colluding to keep him from playing, and settled earlier this year, according to his attorney.

Bosa has since deleted the tweets, which ESPN said included the criticism of Kaepernick, as well as Beyoncé and the movie “Black Panther.” When asked in an ESPN interview why he deleted the posts, Bosa said, “I had to.”

“There is a chance I might end up in San Francisco,” Bosa said.

Upon Bosa being drafted into the NFL, Trump offered his support for the defensive end.

“Congratulations to Nick Bosa on being picked number two in the NFL Draft. You will be a great player for years to come, maybe one of the best. Big Talent! San Francisco will embrace you but most importantly, always stay true to yourself. MAKE AMERICA GREAT AGAIN!” Trump posted at the time.

 

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Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

Trolling has become a living, breathing, and reactionary personality trait for deeply insecure people in this country. What used to just infect message boards and social media is now a part of real life interactions. 

 

This! It used to be extremist idiots online. Now it is an entire major political party. 

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28 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

I'm not unskewing anything. I'm just looking at the data and applying what we know on top of it. 
1) It's a dead heat in the 7 battlegrounds
3) She has more paths to win
4) She has better GOTV
5) She probably has higher enthusiasm. 

That doesn't mean she wins, but the confidence right now on the Republican side is totally unjustified and could wind up being costly. 

Projecting false confidence is what fascists pretty much always do. They never have the numbers but they know that if they pretend that they do, some people will preemptively surrender to them.  The question is will enough preemptively surrender to enable them to eek out a win.

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1 minute ago, immamac said:

My wife's grandfather ordered all kinds of Trump knives and coins and whatever. Republican his whole life. 

After January 6th he was pissed. Said Trump was a coward and a loser. 

He changed his vote. To tell me that so many people have stories like this and I have yet to meet a single person who was like yeah Jan 6 made me vote for the first time ever for Trump. There's just no fucking way that's a thing, and if it is I need someone to show me some data supporting anything like that. 

This is on top of Dobbs, I haven't seen a single person who wasn't already a fucking magatard excited to vote for abortion bans, there's quite a few people I know who were older women who were single issue abortion voters who realize how fucked things are now and aren't voting for more insane policies. They wanted no abortions, they didn't want women to be sex/baby slaves. 

Show me the evidence that there is a swell of NEW people who actively are energized by whatever the fuck this hate campaign is. They already had those votes and they are entrenching themselves there so they don't lose them. Moving more extreme alienates the moderates, of which there are a lot. There aren't more extremists. Defectors from the Republican party are real and measurable. Where are these so called new trump voters coming from? 

I could probably make a case that the young white male "Rogan" crowd has increased over the last few years, but 1) that's probably the least reliable demographic (when it comes to accomplishing anything, not just voting) in the country and 2) no way it more than offsets stories like the one you present.

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