2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Chad Fuck 17,249]

11 minutes ago, atomheartbevo said:

Still so weird seeing Republican officials coming out for Kamala.

 

While I want to believe this is altruistic, I actually believe there is a group of Republicans who can see the writing on the wall and that this is more just drowning rats leaving the vessel.

But either way, it's a vote for Harris, so I'm good. 

It's the political equivalent of "Don't care, had sex."

[SydneyCarton 47,055]

3 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

 

This is exhibit A of the downfall of our society.  Sure, there have been masks of politicians that adults have worn over the years for comic effect (or to use in Point Break) but I've never seen any kid dressed up as a president, current or former.

Like, what the actual fuck.

 

 

 

 

 

1 minute ago, mdmost said:

Because your politics is your sports team now. You dress your kids up in UT gear and have them cheer the team. Well, MAGA dressed their kids in MAGA gear and has them cheer for the MAGA side. 

Yup. I've told the story of my neighbor who dressed his 7 year old up as Creepy Joe Biden last halloween. 

I'm glad we're travelling to another neighborhood this halloween. 

[heso 2,540]

53 minutes ago, immamac said:

I want to know who the new Trump voters are. No one has explained that to me. 

Based on every decision I’ve seen them make, every ad they’re running, the podcasts they have him on, the crypto events they have him at, it’s 18-45 white males. 

They are tying to turnout low information, low turnout, white bros.

They are pumping hundreds of millions of dollars into trying to get low turnout, bros to vote. It’s the only demographic they have any room to grow with. What do dumb white bros love? Punching down at everyone they see as inferior to them? So they make fun of minorities, and women, and gays, and trans. It’s a constant refrain of DEI making it harder for you. It’s mocking the libtard snowflakes. 

Trump is their god because he’s everything they wish they could be. Able to do and say whatever the fuck they want to anyone and about anyone with no repercussions. Because they’re too stupid to realize the difference between them and him. 

[Snake Diggity 4,541]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

I want to know who the new Trump voters are. No one has explained that to me. 

There’s no logical path to Trump getting more votes than his opponent.  But that’s been the case since the beginning.  I know a dude who voted Clinton and Biden who has become a gun nut in the last few years.  He’s (almost certainly) voting Trump.  And there’s some number of people who were willing to vote for a white male Democrat in 2020 who will not be willing to vote for a brown female Democrat in 2024.  I don’t think it’s a very large number.  I expect Harris to win by a wider margin than Biden did.  But American politics has defied logic and reason for going on a decade now.

['stache 21,482]

4 minutes ago, immamac said:

I'm not asking where MAGA morons hang out get their news or listen. I'm asking about where are all these new MAGA people coming from? 

I had to re-sign up for twitter to follow some issues going on with a client. I now get daily push notifications of the latest right wing ragebait. He's got a point that there are people who are otherwise checked out being actively targeted to rile them up and vote for trump. I agree with you that I don't think it's nearly enough but it's a strategy that is being actively pursued and will get at least a few new voters to stop Harris from cutting their grandson's dick off at school which is so totally a real thing because twitter says it 150 times a day.

[SydneyCarton 47,055]

2 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Well as stated my point it its far more likely someone on the far left did this specific act.  They have shown a repeated propensity to destroy public property in Portland to express their political opinion. 

 I guess someone could be stupid enough to think they could influence the outcome of an election by destroying ballots in a highly blue area one drop box at a time.

Indeed.

 

 

[Firemans4Horn 16,815]

5 minutes ago, immamac said:

2020 was peak Trump and these Podcasts were the same then as now. 

I can only find top 5 for 2020 but Rogan was the only right wing option. In 2024 5 of the top 7 are Rogan bro or right wing

 

[Bozo_Casanova 25,462]

42 minutes ago, Incredulity said:

Thats Portland Oregon.  Way more likely one of the leftist anarchists did this than any conservative(as there literally are none).

tell me you've never spent any time in Oregon without telling me you've never spent any time in Oregon. I used to be a partner in a company In Portland. They don't just have conservatives in Portland, they have full on training with Militias on the weekends types up there. They happen to be a minority in Portland, but get really common outside the urban growth bnoundary. 

[The Dog 42,652]

I think that trying to take away their Electoral College vote is having a big impact here.

[BurntOrange&White 38,679]

Just now, The Dog said:

I think that trying to take away their Electoral College vote is having a big impact here.

So if that poll is correct and votes do the same Nebraska would be 2/2?

[Brisketexan 103,007]

6 minutes ago, immamac said:

I'm not asking where MAGA morons hang out get their news or listen. I'm asking about where are all these new MAGA people coming from? 

"Well, see....Imma, when a brother and sister love each other very much, they fuck, and make MAGA babies."

The simple truth here is that the MAGA plan has four elements, and only one of them involves "new voters."

1)  Enrage the MAGA base, get them to turn out at 99%.  Squeeze as many votes as possible from your cult by convincing them that they are fighting a war against the rest of us, who are "vermin."

2) Intimidate/terrorize/discourage people who vote the other way.  You are going to see many more ballot boxes burn, armed people at polling places, etc.

3) Simply go around the electoral process altogether.  Through shenanigans at legislatures, congress, .litigation including a case going to SCOTUS (that one is really important -- no matter the case scenario presented, the majority will find "through an originalist examination of historical records, it is clear that the Founders intended Trump to be POTUS for life" or some equally indefensible shit).  Through outright fraud by state officials -- do not be surprised when we find out about MAGA election clerks simply discarding ballots from blue precincts.

4) Getting a few new voters from pearl-clutching suburban moms who don't want their kids turned trans, dumb latino males who think Trump is macho, and young white men who are the most disaffected demographic in the country right now, and who are also the most gullible collection of morons to ever walk the earth.

Don't overthink this.  Trump has told you everything he's doing.

[Js1 82,103]

Why are Republicans destroying ballot collection boxes if they’re winning bigly?

[Scheiss Meister 8,299]

11 hours ago, Chopper said:

He was paying homage, not plagiarizing. Stephen Miller literally wants to be Himmler. 

But with Reinhard Heydrich's looks.

[locodos 5,078]

6 minutes ago, Pancho said:

Another one

 

I will say this, In S Florida the ballot drop boxes have security folks holding down folding chairs.  I haven't been to one at 2am, but still, it's nice to know.  With the availability of cheap cameras, I'm surprised other states aren't at least providing full camera coverage.

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1,254]

57 minutes ago, immamac said:

My wife's grandfather ordered all kinds of Trump knives and coins and whatever. Republican his whole life. 

After January 6th he was pissed. Said Trump was a coward and a loser. 

He changed his vote. To tell me that so many people have stories like this and I have yet to meet a single person who was like yeah Jan 6 made me vote for the first time ever for Trump. There's just no fucking way that's a thing, and if it is I need someone to show me some data supporting anything like that. 

This is on top of Dobbs, I haven't seen a single person who wasn't already a fucking magatard excited to vote for abortion bans, there's quite a few people I know who were older women who were single issue abortion voters who realize how fucked things are now and aren't voting for more insane policies. They wanted no abortions, they didn't want women to be sex/baby slaves. 

Show me the evidence that there is a swell of NEW people who actively are energized by whatever the fuck this hate campaign is. They already had those votes and they are entrenching themselves there so they don't lose them. Moving more extreme alienates the moderates, of which there are a lot. There aren't more extremists. Defectors from the Republican party are real and measurable. Where are these so called new trump voters coming from? 

Danica Patrick voted for the first time ever and she's voting Trump. I think she is doing it because she's a fucking moron, but maybe there are also reasons related to January 6 and wanting women to not be able to vote just like she didn't vote for all of her life.

[Js1 82,103]

Tufts annual pre-election survey - 51-47 Harris

[locodos 5,078]

2 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

tell me you've never spent any time in Oregon without telling me you've never spent any time in Oregon. I used to be a partner in a company In Portland. They don't just have conservatives in Portland, they have full on training with Militias on the weekends types up there. They happen to be a minority in Portland, but get really common outside the urban growth bnoundary. 

Yup, he knows it.  He's just trolling.  

[SydneyCarton 47,055]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Why are Republicans destroying ballot collection boxes if they’re winning bigly?

Eh. Becuase they're stupid idiots lashing out stupidly. 

If the act was tied to rational thought, or was a plan of some sort, they'd be destroying them in blue areas of swing states. 

[Js1 82,103]

3 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Tufts annual pre-election survey - 51-47 Harris

And it was 50,000 people. It was not a small national sample size 

[BurntOrange&White 38,679]

5 minutes ago, The Hot Dog Buffet said:

Danica Patrick voted for the first time ever and she's voting Trump. I think she is doing it because she's a fucking moron, but maybe there are also reasons related to January 6 and wanting women to not be able to vote just like she didn't vote for all of her life.

She's doing it because she was paid to be an endorser of Trump. 

['stache 21,482]

6 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Why are Republicans destroying ballot collection boxes if they’re winning bigly?

Aren't you paying attention? Portland is a librul city so it was definitely he libruls. They're the ones who are contantly attacking the voting process and claiming it's all fraudulent and are the ones who are always committing violence. Definitely those gun loving, bomb loving, election skeptical libs. 

[chainsaw 9,395]

Succession. I fucking called it months ago.

[SydneyCarton 47,055]

2 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

Succession. I fucking called it months ago.

I think you mean that succession called it a year ago. 

[Tuco 4,980]

Well as stated my point it its far more likely someone on the far left did this specific act.  They have shown a repeated propensity to destroy public property in Portland to express their political opinion. 
 I guess someone could be stupid enough to think they could influence the outcome of an election by destroying ballots in a highly blue area one drop box at a time.

I think it’s a reasonable position if you were just talking about Portland.

Throw in Vancouver WA, which doesn’t share any election except Presidential with Portland, and I think that tilts the likelihood strongly in the favor of fascists. At that point, it’s not about trying to influence a particular race, but rather about attacking confidence in voting. That’s squarely in the right-wing wheelhouse.

[mdmost 42,137]

14 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Why are Republicans destroying ballot collection boxes if they’re winning bigly?

Probably Antifa /Incredulity

[Gatorubet 29,363]

14 hours ago, Brisketexan said:

Fuck that loser bitch.
Winners don’t fucking showboat. They fucking win.
That bitch has more experience with losing in her nascent career than I’ve gotten in my decades-long career.

I was a long time civil rights lawyer practicing before the federal Fifth Circuit.  I’m really experienced at losing.

[texasdago 7,369]

16 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

tell me you've never spent any time in Oregon without telling me you've never spent any time in Oregon. I used to be a partner in a company In Portland. They don't just have conservatives in Portland, they have full on training with Militias on the weekends types up there. They happen to be a minority in Portland, but get really common outside the urban growth bnoundary. 

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/article/2024/may/24/people-rights-network-oregon-elections

Yup

But don't forget Oregon was, uh, part of the uhm Confederacy (!?)

Stuart – who as a prominent PRO5 activist extensively promoted false conspiracy theories about Covid and the 2020 election, and showed up to a Fourth of July parade in Redmond, Oregon in a Confederate uniform and waving a Confederate battle flag – was now in charge of the county Republican apparatus.

[Goredho 17,147]

The only thing I am certain of is that the next two weeks are going to be absolutely fucking bananas.

[aggie08 20,193]

22 minutes ago, Chad Fuck said:

While I want to believe this is altruistic, I actually believe there is a group of Republicans who can see the writing on the wall and that this is more just drowning rats leaving the vessel.

But either way, it's a vote for Harris, so I'm good. 

It's the political equivalent of "Don't care, had sex."

I will gladly except every single Republican rat and cockroach looking out for their own self interest with open arms. No judgement. 

...until Nov 6.

[heso 2,540]

19 minutes ago, immamac said:

I'm not asking where MAGA morons hang out get their news or listen. I'm asking about where are all these new MAGA people coming from? 

Non college educated men 18-29 is the lowest voter turnout demographic by far. They are putting everything they can into trying to get them to vote.

And because they are mostly dumb shitbags, they don’t need a single policy to benefit those people. They just need to give them someone to mock. The single most common ad by far (at least in PA) is about tax payer funded gender affirming surgeries for trans inmates. Federal trans inmates is ~1200 people (don’t quote me on that but that’s the number I found when I tried to look it up). Based on Republican advertising, the single biggest issue in our country is whether or not gender affirming surgery is considered a medically necessary procedure for, at the absolute maximum, 1200 federal inmates. 

The closing line of that ad is really what it boils down to “Kamala Harris is for they/them. Donald Trump is for you.”

That what the entire message of the campaign is about. Not a single bit of substance of any kind. Just division. You are American and everyone that’s different from you is ruining your America. Anyone that represents them can’t possibly represent you. 

[BamaATL 15,680]

21 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Why are Republicans destroying ballot collection boxes if they’re winning bigly?

Why was Brian Kemp in Republican land in Georgia sheepishly conceding that Democrats have had huge turnout?  

1.  He doesn't really care about Trump losing, it's actually good for him

2.  It's true.  

[Tuco 4,980]

So if that poll is correct and votes do the same Nebraska would be 2/2?

4 electors for Trump vs 1 for Harris.

But, if that polling were to hold up in ne-2, it flips a Congressman, possibly a Senator, affects some state leg races, and affects some pot and abortion ballot initiatives. I wish Omaha city races were concurrent. If Omaha (ne2) is that blue, you can’t really sleep on Lincoln (ne-1) either.

We’ll find out when the big poll comes out in 8 days.

[Js1 82,103]

1 minute ago, Tuco said:

4 electors for Trump vs 1 for Harris.

But, if that polling were to hold up in ne-2, it flips a Congressman, possibly a Senator, affects some state leg races, and affects some pot and abortion ballot initiatives. I wish Omaha city races were concurrent. If Omaha (ne2) is that blue, you can’t really sleep on Lincoln (ne-1) either.

We’ll find out when the big poll comes out in 8 days.

Nyt had Trump only up 4 in NE-01

[Celery Man 20,534]

13 hours ago, Satchel said:

They’re doing cartwheels over on aggy. Unbelievable 

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3502586/2

While they are having one of their best games in years lol 

26 minutes ago, Firemans4Horn said:

I can only find top 5 for 2020 but Rogan was the only right wing option. In 2024 5 of the top 7 are Rogan bro or right wing

 

This is a house of learned doctors so we’ve all been familiar with podcasts since at least Serial. It takes longer for republicans to adapt to this shit, and talk radio has always been their domain.

[Royalfan5 2,196]

2 minutes ago, Tuco said:

4 electors for Trump vs 1 for Harris.

But, if that polling were to hold up in ne-2, it flips a Congressman, possibly a Senator, affects some state leg races, and affects some pot and abortion ballot initiatives. I wish Omaha city races were concurrent. If Omaha (ne2) is that blue, you can’t really sleep on Lincoln (ne-1) either.

We’ll find out when the big poll comes out in 8 days.

If we could gerrymander the area around Offut into the 3rd district instead of anchoring it to Lincoln it'd help. 

[MidTexHorn 768]

1 hour ago, WBT said:

Low education minorities supposedly.  We shall see.

My limo driver, an Ethiopian immigrant in his early 30s from Atlanta who now lives in Austin, clearly listens to lots of right wing podcasts and was telling me about the conspiracy theory bullshit he hears on there. But he was citing it rather approvingly. He didn’t say who he’s voting for, but it was a little eye opening and I’m pretty sure he’s voting Trump which is mind blowing. 

[Bozo_Casanova 25,462]

22 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Tufts annual pre-election survey - 51-47 Harris

The server appears to have crashed, but the crosstabs are below. Actually worth digging into with a sample this big:
Dig in, nerds!

IIRC this survey was pretty good in both 2016 and 2020

[Red Five 40,061]

"People who say they will definitely vote or have already voted": 52-46, Harris. 

[Js1 82,103]

1 minute ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The server appears to have crashed, but the crosstabs are below. Actually worth digging into with a sample this big:
Dig in, nerds!

IIRC this survey was pretty good in both 2016 and 2020

2020 - Biden 52, Trump 45 (actual 51.3, 46.8)

2016 - can’t find it 

[4th&Five 41,042]

 

[G650 13,042]

Just now, 4th&Five said:

 

Keep that up

[Js1 82,103]

2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

2020 - Biden 52, Trump 45 (actual 51.3, 46.8)

2016 - can’t find it 

2016 was Clinton 42.9, Trump 39. The margin wasn’t that far off (3.9, versus 2.9 actual)

God that election was something else. 

[BurntOrange&White 38,679]

1 minute ago, 4th&Five said:

 

Should have been doing that for the past 9 years.

[SimonBolivar 10,645]

 

Young men is interesting

[Gil Bang 25,462]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

I want to know who the new Trump voters are. No one has explained that to me. 

recent fish camp graduates?

[Red Five 40,061]

2 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

 

Did that dude really see a black guy in the crowd and immediately make a watermelon joke?

[yoladu 4,040]

38 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Why are Republicans destroying ballot collection boxes if they’re winning bigly?

Let's see... Looking at my GOP handbook.. oh, it's right here on pp. 34.. line item #203b reads:

• When republican acts of destruction, coercion, or intimidation are discovered blame these acts on Democrats trying to make Republicans look bad. re: false flag.

Duh.

 

 

 

,

 

Edited Monday at 04:33 PM by yoladu

[C-Man 26,494]

1 hour ago, immamac said:

My wife's grandfather ordered all kinds of Trump knives and coins and whatever. Republican his whole life. 

After January 6th he was pissed. Said Trump was a coward and a loser. 

He changed his vote. To tell me that so many people have stories like this and I have yet to meet a single person who was like yeah Jan 6 made me vote for the first time ever for Trump. There's just no fucking way that's a thing, and if it is I need someone to show me some data supporting anything like that. 

This is on top of Dobbs, I haven't seen a single person who wasn't already a fucking magatard excited to vote for abortion bans, there's quite a few people I know who were older women who were single issue abortion voters who realize how fucked things are now and aren't voting for more insane policies. They wanted no abortions, they didn't want women to be sex/baby slaves. 

Show me the evidence that there is a swell of NEW people who actively are energized by whatever the fuck this hate campaign is. They already had those votes and they are entrenching themselves there so they don't lose them. Moving more extreme alienates the moderates, of which there are a lot. There aren't more extremists. Defectors from the Republican party are real and measurable. Where are these so called new trump voters coming from? 

I absolutely agree with all of this and if I can take a few mins to back away from hyperventilating in a brown lunch bag this makes complete sense. Then I remember what's on the line, and the lengths to which that side will go to fuck with the results and I go right back to the brown bag.

[The Hot Dog Buffet 1,254]

Just now, Red Five said:

Did that dude really see a black guy in the crowd and immediately make a watermelon joke?

At least the black guy was probably paid to be there.

[Scheiss Meister 8,299]

1 hour ago, Incredulity said:

Thats Portland Oregon.  Way more likely one of the leftist anarchists did this than any conservative(as there literally are none).

Tell me you don't know shit about Oregon without telling me you don't know shit about Oregon.  The eastern half of Oregon is full blown maga.  It's not a long drive to do that and head back home.