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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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Huckleberry

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Just now, SydneyCarton said:

Trump won Kansas in 2020 by almost 15 points. I wonder a) why he'd use the word weird to describe what they're seeing and b) why that pollster doesn't put out more fucking polls. 

Your first sentence answers your last. 

Edited by Huckleberry
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Red Five

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Michelle Obama launched Dotard into the sun the other day.

"I hope you’ll forgive me if I’m a little frustrated that some of us are choosing to ignore Donald Trump’s gross incompetence while asking Kamala to dazzle us at every turn," Obama said. "We expect her to be intelligent and articulate, to have a clear set of policies, to never show too much anger, to prove time and a time again that she belongs. But for Trump, we expect nothing at all, no understanding of policy, no ability to put together a coherent argument, no honesty, no decency, no morals."

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SydneyCarton

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1 minute ago, Red Five said:

Michelle Obama launched Dotard into the sun the other day.

"I hope you’ll forgive me if I’m a little frustrated that some of us are choosing to ignore Donald Trump’s gross incompetence while asking Kamala to dazzle us at every turn," Obama said. "We expect her to be intelligent and articulate, to have a clear set of policies, to never show too much anger, to prove time and a time again that she belongs. But for Trump, we expect nothing at all, no understanding of policy, no ability to put together a coherent argument, no honesty, no decency, no morals."

That isn't a shot at Dotard. It's a shot at his voters, really. 

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Js1

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5 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Trump won Kansas in 2020 by almost 15 points. I wonder a) why he'd use the word weird to describe what they're seeing and b) why that pollster doesn't put out more fucking polls. 

Well if you put out too many polls, you can't tell everyone you're batting 1.000

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henrygandorf

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not sure why he said "weird", when "unexpected" or "surprising" might fit better. he's a dem, so he didn't mean weird as in shitty or suspect.

separately, my nephew is a senior at michigan and wanted to go to kamala's rally tonight, but didn't feel like waiting in line for several hours. so according to my group text, there is currently a pledge in a folding chair with his laptop near the front of the line.

this kid's got a future.

Edited by henrygandorf
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Red Five

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Just now, kevwun said:

It will be more than that.  I have Dem friends who think Kamala is going to lose.

For a long time now we've had one side saying "We're the underdog" while the other side is saying "We're gonna win in a landslide". Add in the fucked up polling and betting markets and voila. 

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Js1

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American Greatness (oh these fuckers are back) still can only find PA a 47-47 tie.  Partisan R pollsters can't even buy Trump a lead

Insider Advantage, another partisan R pollster, can only cook up a 1 point lead for Trump in Michigan.

More flooding the zone!

Now, for real polls:

University of Arizona for AZ:

Harris 46, Trump 45

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mdmost

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2 minutes ago, Clintonaldo said:

What is he implying ?

Trump is only up 5 this time in a state he won by 14 in 2020. He has an enthusiasm gap this go round even in a conservative state like Kansas. He must be losing some Republican voters to be -9. 

Edited by mdmost
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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29451

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1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

That’s a wild place to go in this thread, however.  I wonder if Udo Kier ever met Donald Trump. Probably, right?

I wondered if you'd actually caught the post before I struck it. I can't imagine they didn't cross paths. It was great to see Udo in Ace Ventura. That was such a wild time for movies (seventies).

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Js1

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4 minutes ago, BehoId, The Underminer! said:

it would also be treating one poll out of 10,000 as the god poll

Yeah, probably an outlier.  If Kansas shifted 10 points left, you're getting into 400+ electoral vote territory - Florida, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Iowa, ME-02 are all flipping. 

But hey, the first rule of good polling - publish, don't hide, outliers.  It increases your credibility that you stand by your methods enough to publish Trump +5 in Kansas. 

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Dahobbs

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2 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Yeah, probably an outlier.  If Kansas shifted 10 points left, you're getting into 400+ electoral vote territory - Florida, Ohio, Alaska, Texas, Iowa, ME-02 are all flipping. 

But hey, the first rule of good polling - publish, don't hide, outliers.  It increases your credibility that you stand by your methods enough to publish Trump +5 in Kansas. 

Even shifting that 5 to the right, it would still signal deep deep trouble for Trump. 

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aggie08

aggie08 20193

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22 minutes ago, kevwun said:

It will be more than that.  I have Dem friends who think Kamala is going to lose.

 

14 minutes ago, Foosters said:

so did this board like 6 hours ago...and then 28 hours before that....and 49 hours before that . . . and so on.

Such is the curse of not being stupid: you don't get to have their irrational, unwavering overconfidence about damn near everything.

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