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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


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Posted
  On 10/29/2024 at 10:46 PM, Dnaguy said:

Does no one else think of these things when they look at her?

 

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She's a vocal Trump supporter and whores herself and whatever reputation she has to a cause that's malign and toxic.

Somehow labia never come into contemplation of her. It seems to be the "her" part of the equation that inflames you the most.

My own dark thoughts ,which, I believe, can easily rival whatever you have going on in there, just don't seem appropriate for an open forum. The denominator should be a little higher, don't you think?

Posted
  On 10/30/2024 at 12:38 AM, RomaVicta said:

She's a vocal Trump supporter and whores herself and whatever reputation she has to a cause that's malign and toxic.

Somehow labia never come into contemplation of her. It seems to be the "her" part of the equation that inflames you the most.

My own dark thoughts ,which, I believe, can easily rival whatever you have going on in there, just don't seem appropriate for an open forum. The denominator should be a little higher, don't you think?

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Nah.

I think about labias quite a bit. 
To not think of hers would be exclusive.

I am an inclusive labiast.

🤷‍♂️

 

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Posted
  On 10/30/2024 at 12:27 AM, immamac said:

Watching this speech on 20-25 minute delay. This is extremely competent and polished. 

The crowd is fucking enormous. 

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I believe there is a whole separate crowd over closer to the Washington Monument that is not included in this shot. But I’m not familiar with the area so if anyone can speak to that please chime in. 

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Posted
  On 10/30/2024 at 12:49 AM, TexEx15 said:

I believe there is a whole separate crowd over closer to the Washington Monument that is not included in this shot. But I’m not familiar with the area so if anyone can speak to that please chime in. 

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Yeah they had a spillover crowd 

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Posted
  On 10/30/2024 at 12:41 AM, SubliminalHorn said:

Ok, elaborate 

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I think he’s he’s saying that their definition of “likely voter” includes the high turnout by tylically low propensity, low education voters who came out for him in 2016 and 2020, and the fact that in those same elections the higher propensity and education voters are thought to have supported Biden and Clinton.

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Posted
  On 10/30/2024 at 12:34 AM, Sawbonz said:

AZ and TX absolutely do not have the same split

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And NV is not going to be a bigger Harris win than PA/WI/MI

but that would be 276 and Trump +4 in TX means Cruz lost 

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Posted
  On 10/30/2024 at 12:49 AM, TexEx15 said:

I believe there is a whole separate crowd over closer to the Washington Monument that is not included in this shot. But I’m not familiar with the area so if anyone can speak to that please chime in. 

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Many people are saying it was the largest crowd ever in that spot. Larger than MLK’s crowd.

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Posted (edited)
  On 10/30/2024 at 12:34 AM, immamac said:

Texas 51/47 mixed in with the rest of that? Wtf. 

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And?  Last time was 52.1/46.5.  Other than the Perot elections, Trump has the two lowest R presidential vote shares in Texas since Carter won it in 76.

Edited by WBT
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Posted
  On 10/30/2024 at 12:25 AM, BurntOrange&White said:

My wife doesn’t discuss politics publicly, like she doesn’t post or repost the shit that generally gets circulated. She’s pro choice and she hates Ted Cruz. She also hates how politicians in Texas treat education and hates the idea of vouchers, she’s a public school teacher. Together we don’t really discuss politics to each other unless we happen to see something on the news. I personally think she’s more liberal than she realizes but I just let her be. Not going to let politics affect our marriage because we’re both happy. I just have an understanding under Trumps project 2025 she’s essentially my commodity(joke). 

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Um. Sorry man. I can’t square this with someone who votes for Trump. It’s illogical. Hopefully I’m misunderstanding. 

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Posted
  On 10/30/2024 at 1:20 AM, chainsaw said:

I want to believe.

How are they getting it so wrong, though? Like, how exactly are their methods failing?

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Same problem as all of them, oversampling and weighting of Republican voters, in particular as it relates to indys.  It used to be that you could approximate indy's to percentages of each party.  When they missed 2016, it was an under weighting of Indy to Republican, they didn't just adjust, they overcompensated for that miss ever since, which is why in part, even reputable polling ever since has been light against Democratic turnout.  Given that party registration is down relative to population just about everywhere (and more so over time), this over weighting becomes ever more wild as time goes by.  

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Posted

Am I missing an assassination attempt or are we calling any person open carrying an attempt?

  On 10/30/2024 at 12:45 AM, Dnaguy said:

Nah.

I think about labias quite a bit. 
To not think of hers would be exclusive.

I am an inclusive labiast.

🤷‍♂️

 

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Are you allowed in Arby’s? 

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Posted
  On 10/30/2024 at 1:20 AM, chainsaw said:

I want to believe.

How are they getting it so wrong, though? Like, how exactly are their methods failing?

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Easy. None of these polls are true random samples of the population because, among other reasons, low response rates. They have to correct this issue by trying to mold the model to match what they expect the actual voting population to look like. If those assumptions are wrong, then their conclusions are wrong. And given that their assumptions are largely wild ass guesses, their conclusions are often wrong. 

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