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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

bolverk

By bolverk
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I don't post all that often, though don't mistake that for not enjoying this board's discourse, OUsucks/Texags point and laughs, and quality original content on a frequent basis. I haven't felt t

Clintonaldo
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Just had an interesting conversation with wife. Her: Hey Wednesday I need you to pick our son up Me: ok but be home by 4 because I am going to Chili’s for some internet friends. Her: You are mee

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I am an American Indian, born in rural Pennsylvania while my dad attended Penn State for graduate school in the 70s.  He was accepted by all on campus, but encountered plenty of racism when outside of

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RomaVicta

RomaVicta 29905

Posted
Posted
1 hour ago, Dnaguy said:

Does no one else think of these things when they look at her?

 

She's a vocal Trump supporter and whores herself and whatever reputation she has to a cause that's malign and toxic.

Somehow labia never come into contemplation of her. It seems to be the "her" part of the equation that inflames you the most.

My own dark thoughts ,which, I believe, can easily rival whatever you have going on in there, just don't seem appropriate for an open forum. The denominator should be a little higher, don't you think?

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Dnaguy

Dnaguy 11944

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3 minutes ago, RomaVicta said:

She's a vocal Trump supporter and whores herself and whatever reputation she has to a cause that's malign and toxic.

Somehow labia never come into contemplation of her. It seems to be the "her" part of the equation that inflames you the most.

My own dark thoughts ,which, I believe, can easily rival whatever you have going on in there, just don't seem appropriate for an open forum. The denominator should be a little higher, don't you think?

Nah.

I think about labias quite a bit. 
To not think of hers would be exclusive.

I am an inclusive labiast.

🤷‍♂️

 

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TexEx15

TexEx15 17509

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20 minutes ago, immamac said:

Watching this speech on 20-25 minute delay. This is extremely competent and polished. 

The crowd is fucking enormous. 

I believe there is a whole separate crowd over closer to the Washington Monument that is not included in this shot. But I’m not familiar with the area so if anyone can speak to that please chime in. 

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Js1

Js1 85311

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Just now, TexEx15 said:

I believe there is a whole separate crowd over closer to the Washington Monument that is not included in this shot. But I’m not familiar with the area so if anyone can speak to that please chime in. 

Yeah they had a spillover crowd 

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Bozo_Casanova

Bozo_Casanova 26444

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6 minutes ago, SubliminalHorn said:

Ok, elaborate 

I think he’s he’s saying that their definition of “likely voter” includes the high turnout by tylically low propensity, low education voters who came out for him in 2016 and 2020, and the fact that in those same elections the higher propensity and education voters are thought to have supported Biden and Clinton.

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Js1

Js1 85311

Posted
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16 minutes ago, Sawbonz said:

AZ and TX absolutely do not have the same split

And NV is not going to be a bigger Harris win than PA/WI/MI

but that would be 276 and Trump +4 in TX means Cruz lost 

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tx ind

tx ind 7012

Posted
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4 minutes ago, TexEx15 said:

I believe there is a whole separate crowd over closer to the Washington Monument that is not included in this shot. But I’m not familiar with the area so if anyone can speak to that please chime in. 

Many people are saying it was the largest crowd ever in that spot. Larger than MLK’s crowd.

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WBT

WBT 20561

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27 minutes ago, immamac said:

Texas 51/47 mixed in with the rest of that? Wtf. 

And?  Last time was 52.1/46.5.  Other than the Perot elections, Trump has the two lowest R presidential vote shares in Texas since Carter won it in 76.

Edited by WBT
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Biff Tannen

Biff Tannen 45673

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49 minutes ago, BurntOrange&White said:

My wife doesn’t discuss politics publicly, like she doesn’t post or repost the shit that generally gets circulated. She’s pro choice and she hates Ted Cruz. She also hates how politicians in Texas treat education and hates the idea of vouchers, she’s a public school teacher. Together we don’t really discuss politics to each other unless we happen to see something on the news. I personally think she’s more liberal than she realizes but I just let her be. Not going to let politics affect our marriage because we’re both happy. I just have an understanding under Trumps project 2025 she’s essentially my commodity(joke). 

Um. Sorry man. I can’t square this with someone who votes for Trump. It’s illogical. Hopefully I’m misunderstanding. 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

Posted
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Just now, chainsaw said:

I want to believe.

How are they getting it so wrong, though? Like, how exactly are their methods failing?

Same problem as all of them, oversampling and weighting of Republican voters, in particular as it relates to indys.  It used to be that you could approximate indy's to percentages of each party.  When they missed 2016, it was an under weighting of Indy to Republican, they didn't just adjust, they overcompensated for that miss ever since, which is why in part, even reputable polling ever since has been light against Democratic turnout.  Given that party registration is down relative to population just about everywhere (and more so over time), this over weighting becomes ever more wild as time goes by.  

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TwiceHorn

TwiceHorn 31450

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6 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I want to believe.

How are they getting it so wrong, though? Like, how exactly are their methods failing?

The problem is guessing how the percentages break down in terms of less R v. D, but Trump v. Harris.

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StassneyHorn

StassneyHorn 6575

Posted
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Am I missing an assassination attempt or are we calling any person open carrying an attempt?

42 minutes ago, Dnaguy said:

Nah.

I think about labias quite a bit. 
To not think of hers would be exclusive.

I am an inclusive labiast.

🤷‍♂️

 

Are you allowed in Arby’s? 

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

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7 minutes ago, chainsaw said:

I want to believe.

How are they getting it so wrong, though? Like, how exactly are their methods failing?

Easy. None of these polls are true random samples of the population because, among other reasons, low response rates. They have to correct this issue by trying to mold the model to match what they expect the actual voting population to look like. If those assumptions are wrong, then their conclusions are wrong. And given that their assumptions are largely wild ass guesses, their conclusions are often wrong. 

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BamaATL

BamaATL 16593

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2 minutes ago, TexPx said:


That does it! I will not be voting for Biden!

Lame duck Biden should do a heel tour of all the red states starting in a few weeks.  Call people garbage and idiots, shit on their teams, the whole nine yards.  

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Dahobbs

Dahobbs 17534

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Just now, BamaATL said:

Lame duck Biden should do a heel tour of all the red states starting in a few weeks.  Call people garbage and idiots, shit on their teams, the whole nine yards.  

He should actually just literally shit on @Stros121. 

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