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2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.


bolverk

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A Bennigan's Rueben was a staple of my childhood. That being said, for awhile, they also had a burger called The Wheelhouse that had a fried cheese circle, the size of the burger, on top of the patty. 
 

How that fucking stroke of genius hasn’t been copied and replicated everywhere remains one of life’s great mysteries for me. 

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37 minutes ago, hookem2010 said:

That's really not cool. You can't take your phone out and take pictures within 100 ft of a polling station.

  1. The dude is probably rubbing his junk all over the control surfaces
  2. That might not even be in the US 
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Well, one of us wrong on the polls (from NBCNews ). 

Quote

Trump is campaigning outside of battleground states. Is that confidence or hubris?

The former president is traveling to New Mexico and Virginia in the final week of a race that most analysts think will be decided by other states.

Former President Donald Trump is swerving off the battleground map this week to host rallies in New Mexico and Virginia — states that haven't voted for the GOP presidential nominee in two decades and where he lost by double digits in 2020 — and he is flirting with a trip to New Hampshire.

Trump heads to Albuquerque, New Mexico, on Thursday, with his campaign newly confident that he is in such good shape to beat Vice President Kamala Harris that he can afford to divert his focus from the seven main battlegrounds the two sides have focused on for the entirety of the race.

A Trump campaign official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss strategy freely said the barnstorming of the final week is part of a strategy to expand the map and capitalize on what the campaign says are Trump’s diverse coalition and favorable positioning on the map and the broader momentum it claims it is seeing with the electorate.

"Trump has created a broad and diverse coalition by unifying the GOP, attracting independents and appealing to disaffected Democrats with his message," the official said.

"The momentum includes states that have recently trended for a Democrat," the source added. "All Americans understand that Kamala has broken our border, economy and ability to lead in the world.”

Follow live updates on the 2024 election

The question, with Trump speaking in a city a mile above sea level Thursday, is whether his campaign is high on its own supply or grounded in a reality that public polls have missed. In the vast majority of independent surveys in New Mexico, Virginia and New Hampshire in recent weeks, Trump has trailed by more than 5 points.

New Hampshire has been the closest, with one outlier poll in the New Hampshire Journal showing the race tied. But Trump and his team are seeing indicators that suggest he could break into unexpected territory with a wind at his back over the closing week of the election.

Trump is focused on driving turnout in the countdown to Election Day, the Trump campaign official said, and part of the strategy includes hammering his closing message to draw a contrast with Harris over the pillars of his closing argument: immigration, inflation and foreign wars.

A second Trump campaign official who was granted anonymity to speak freely said that if it is going to a state, it’s because the campaign sees movement there.

The Harris campaign didn’t comment.

There is no indication that Trump has all or any of the big seven swing states — Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona, Nevada, Georgia and North Carolina — in the bag already. Trump lost in 2020 by less than 44,000 votes spread across Georgia, Arizona and Wisconsin. He will need to flip several of the battlegrounds to reach the 270-vote threshold in the Electoral College and win back the White House.

The decision to campaign outside of those venues — including a Madison Square Garden rally in deep-blue New York and a news conference in GOP-tilting Florida on Wednesday — has led some Republicans to infer that Trump is overruling the political pros on his team.

"There's no chance that somebody who is focused on 270 electoral votes is going to Virginia and New Mexico," said a senior official who served on Trump's 2020 campaign team. "So Donald Trump is running his own campaign at this point. Period. Full stop."

But current campaign officials say that Trump and his team understand the relative value of each visit to each state and that they wouldn't be scheduling rallies in Albuquerque and Salem, Virginia, if they didn't believe he had a chance to win those states.

In an appearance on Fox News on Tuesday, Trump political director James Blair said that polls have undercounted Trump’s support historically and that there are indicators that that could be the case again. Since 2020, states like Arizona have shown rightward movement that potentially bodes well for Trump, Blair said. He said Trump had also brought new people into the Republican Party, which polls may not be picking up.

Trump doesn't have time to waste at this stage of the race, the second campaign official said. The races in those states can narrow quickly at the end, and they will be in play if there's a polling error in Trump's favor, this official said, adding that his campaigning in adjacent states — pairs such as Arizona and New Mexico and Virginia and North Carolina — can bleed over in both directions.

If Trump ends up in New Hampshire, this person said, it's because his campaign sees him increasing his numbers in the Northeast at a time when New Hampshire is the most competitive of the New England states.

In another show of confidence, the Trump campaign recently dispatched former Democrats Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Tulsi Gabbard to Omaha, Nebraska, and the ruby-red state's “blue dot,” which Joe Biden carried by more than 6 percentage points in 2020 and where recent public polls show Harris with an even more significant lead. Both spoke at Trump's New York rally, and Gabbard joined Trump days earlier in North Carolina, a swing state.

The campaign is sounding a resolutely optimistic note.

“I won’t feel comfortable until the race is called; you always run like you’re 10 points down,” Blair told Fox News. “But by everything that’s measurable right now, it looks very, very good for President Trump.”

 

Edited by Tuco
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Just now, Tuco said:

A Trump campaign official who spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss strategy freely said the barnstorming of the final week is part of a strategy to expand the map and capitalize on what the campaign says are Trump’s diverse coalition and favorable positioning on the map and the broader momentum it claims it is seeing with the electorate.

 

- Hillary Clinton, late October 2016

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8 hours ago, Jersey Man10 said:

I hate this fucker
image.png.4b2587324829980903cbd102c0049747.png

 

They already had the irony-deaf vote totally locked up. No impact to see here.

Move along.

 

Maybe there is some sub-conscious self-awareness by putting "elite" in quote marks.

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6 minutes ago, Tuco said:

Well, one of us wrong on the polls (from NBCNews ). 

 

This is not about polls and it's not at all what Clinton was going-  Trump barnstorming everywhere is yet another successful effort to make his own "weather." It's a marketing technique to control the national vibes as seen in the media environment. Trump is good at this. 

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4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

This is not about polls and it's not at all what Clinton was going-  Trump barnstorming everywhere is yet another successful effort to make his own "weather." It's a marketing technique to control the national vibes as seen in the media environment. Trump is good at this. 

What is he going to cosplay as?

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4 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

This is not about polls and it's not at all what Clinton was going-  Trump barnstorming everywhere is yet another successful effort to make his own "weather." It's a marketing technique to control the national vibes as seen in the media environment. Trump is good at this. 

Plus he just wants a big crowd somewhere that Harris is not going to also appear the same or next day with a bigger crowd.  It's all ego

He has his big rally in Salem, VA on Saturday - not a battleground part of VA, but he is going to draw all the yokels from rural VA, WV and eastern Kentucky to the Klan Rally. 

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2 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I am almost at the point where if Trump wins, I want him to go scorched earth on the country and send us back 100 years just so I can fucking show these dumb motherfuckers that voted for him that they have reaped what they sowed

The worst person you know': the man who unwittingly became a ...

 

I have similar thoughts, but they don't last long when I realize the uncertainty and pain that comes with it, which will inevitably be felt by my wife and kid, not to mention my fucking self, and the millions of other folks in this country the right deems as sub-human. 

If I were single and childless and still as short sighted as I was in my 20's...

Edited by SydneyCarton
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30 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Speaking of fapping:

Georgia Daily Takeaways:

1.  3.482 million have now voted

2.  Women outpace men by 418k.  

3.  2020 non voters are 671k, with the 18-29 demo making up 239k of that, this demo now outpaces non voters in the age group of 50-64 and 65+ combined.  

4.  Fortress Atlanta Update:

Clayton County - 74k

Cobb County - 270k

Dekalb County - 252k

Fulton County - 382k

Gwinnett County - 275k

if the Trump campaign is getting nervous by internal numbers, and we are nervous because of all of the polls that show Trump bleeding or close to Harris, one interesting aspect is that this is an unusual election with so many new voters.   it appears that the traditional models are simply not able to determine with any accuracy what this huge number of increased new voters will do, which is further complicated by so many new independents registering from their former party.

I firmly believe that the woman who are newly registered will be voting 70 to 80% for Harris.  So the one question I have is where will Trump find new voters - in those numbers - who will vote in that percentage for him.

And I have nothing.

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4 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I am almost at the point where if Trump wins, I want him to go scorched earth on the country and send us back 100 years just so I can fucking show these dumb motherfuckers that voted for him that they have reaped what they sowed

I understand the sentiment. But my fear is no matter what happens a segment of the population, say 2-3% are going to scorch shit either way. Sadly it is what some want.

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8 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

This is not about polls and it's not at all what Clinton was going-  Trump barnstorming everywhere is yet another successful effort to make his own "weather." It's a marketing technique to control the national vibes as seen in the media environment. Trump is good at this. 

With 6 days until the finish, I don't know how important the "national vibes" are.  This is get out-the-vote time.  So far, that NBC article is the only one I've found, and it makes him sound like a nutter, because he is.  

I could see it as an attempt to energize his base - projecting confidence and momentum.  I can see it as a distraction from other narratives.  But, mostly I see it as a deluded, crazy old man. 

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11 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

This is not about polls and it's not at all what Clinton was going-  Trump barnstorming everywhere is yet another successful effort to make his own "weather." It's a marketing technique to control the national vibes as seen in the media environment. Trump is good at this. 

 He’s also tapped out from a crowd perspective in the swings, either due to over saturation, lack of enthusiasm, or nobody will let him use an indoor arena on spec. Or a combination of all three. 
 

He needs his ego fed and NM will give him a quick high that he can’t get anymore in swing states.

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7 minutes ago, GreenspointTexas said:

I am almost at the point where if Trump wins, I want him to go scorched earth on the country and send us back 100 years just so I can fucking show these dumb motherfuckers that voted for him that they have reaped what they sowed

IMG_3078.jpeg.9ea4d17c450f088acafde194beda2d23.jpeg

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1 minute ago, Gatorubet said:

if the Trump campaign is getting nervous by internal numbers, and we are nervous because of all of the polls that show Trump bleeding or close to Harris, one interesting aspect is that this is an unusual election with so many new voters.   it appears that the traditional models are simply not able to determine with any accuracy what this huge number of increased new voters will do, which is further complicated by so many new independents registering from their former party.

I firmly believe that the woman who are newly registered will be voting 70 to 80% for Harris.  So the one question I have is where will Trump find new voters - in those numbers - who will vote in that percentage for him.

And I have nothing.

I'd guess it's the frat and Rogan bros. White 18-29 year old males. If they actually vote in numbers, that will be a problem. Hopefully they are too fucking lazy and currently look at Trump as entertainment more than a viable candidate that will get them off their ass and vote.

 

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Just now, Hank Kingsley said:

 

I'd guess it's the frat and Rogan bros. White 18-29 year old males. If they actually vote in numbers, that will be a problem. Hopefully they are too fucking lazy and currently look at Trump as entertainment more than a viable candidate that will get them off their ass and vote.

 

What is demographics of that age range in terms of gender?

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9 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:



If I were single and childless and still as short sighted as I was in my 20's...

Which is where a lot of the young male support for Trump is coming from. 

“The system didn’t hand my the American dream like I was promised. Burn it all down and maybe I’ll be on top in the next one.”

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19 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

This is not about polls and it's not at all what Clinton was going-  Trump barnstorming everywhere is yet another successful effort to make his own "weather." It's a marketing technique to control the national vibes as seen in the media environment. Trump is good at this. 

It's stupid. He has lost every election since 2016. He is NOT good at this. Jesus....

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2 minutes ago, Gatorubet said:

if the Trump campaign is getting nervous by internal numbers, and we are nervous because of all of the polls that show Trump bleeding or close to Harris, one interesting aspect is that this is an unusual election with so many new voters.   it appears that the traditional models are simply not able to determine with any accuracy what this huge number of increased new voters will do, which is further complicated by so many new independents registering from their former party.

I firmly believe that the woman who are newly registered will be voting 70 to 80% for Harris.  So the one question I have is where will Trump find new voters - in those numbers - who will vote in that percentage for him.

And I have nothing.

I mean, we have talked at length about where he finds new voters - 

newly registered young women? not a chance
newly registered young men? maybe, but there was a poll showing Gen Z men are supporting Harris almost at the same levels of Gen Z women, so unless he's tapped into a pool of Tate-pilled alpha bros....
newly registered black women? LOL

I said it yesterday - unless he has absolutely found this giant source of untapped voters who barely ever or have never shown up to vote, *and turns them out,* he's going to have to win a lot more Dems than she is winning Republicans (unlikely), stem the bleeding of suburban college educated whites (not a chance), pick off minority voters at a substantial rate (not based on polling, he's not) and win independents.  But the vast majority of newly registered independents are young voters and voters of color and the swingier, established indies are suburban women.

He also cannot bleed any support in WWC men/women.  I mean, he won them 67-32.  If he only wins them 65-34, he's in trouble in the blue wall. 

Or hope that turnout craters, but we are likely on pace for 2008/2020 turnout and not 2016 turnout. 

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