2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[Pancho 44688]

4 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

 

They have a family friend that is a lawyer cum real estate investor that is kind of leading the charge with one of his German business associates.

 

[DixonHur 11292]

4 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Gay pirate.

[BamaATL 16593]

4 minutes ago, aggie08 said:

Gay pirate.

Steed Bonnet?  

[TwiceHorn 31436]

52 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Not a lawyer, but what’s the standing here? 

Geezus jumped-up Christ.  It's a gotdam DTPA suit filed in ND Tex Amarillo division, where Kazmethhead sits, between residents of Florida and New York, with absolutely zero connection to the state of Texas.

 Venue is wrong and personal jurisdiction is probably dubious.  Texas law doesn't apply.  Trump is not a consumer.  This is not what DTPA addresses.  And, yeah, standing is a problem too..

This thing should be shot into the sun, without whiskey or hash browns.

Edited November 1 by TwiceHorn

[Bozo_Casanova 26433]

21 minutes ago, gmr548 said:

Harris/Walz are technically very late boomers but you could argue culturally more Gen X.

The census bureau/pew definition of Gen X (beginning at 1965) is bullshit on infinite levels. Don’t even get me started.

the best definition is Strauss and Howe: 61-81.

[cactusflinthead 27598]

Just now, TwiceHorn said:

Geezus jumped-up Christ.  It's a gotdam DTPA suit filed in ND Tex Amarillo division, where Kazmethhead sits.

 Venue is wrong and personal jurisdiction is probably dubious.  Texas law doesn't apply.  Trump is not a consumer.  This is not what DTPA addresses.

This thing should be shot into the sun, without whiskey or hash browns.

But CBS does significant business in Amarillo!

[Js1 85262]

Just now, cactusflinthead said:

But CBS does significant business in Amarillo!

Cow bullshit?

[cactusflinthead 27598]

1 minute ago, Js1 said:

Cow bullshit?

[Francisco 2.0 32386]

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/trump-lagging-early-votes-seniors-pennsylvania-00186612

 

Quote

Donald Trump is lagging Kamala Harris in Pennsylvania early voting with a critical and once-reliably Republican constituency: seniors.

It’s a warning sign for the former president that reflects early vote data and polling across the battlegrounds, after Republicans won the senior vote in each of the last five presidential elections.

 

Quote

In Pennsylvania, where voters over the age of 65 have cast nearly half of the early ballots, registered Democrats account for about 58 percent of votes cast by seniors, compared to 35 percent for Republicans. That’s despite both parties having roughly equal numbers of registered voters aged 65 and older. 

The partisan gap is narrower than it was in 2020, when views of early voting were more partisan, and Republicans take that as a good sign. But the GOP still is counting on more of its older voters to show up on Election Day, while Democrats have more votes in the bank.

 

Quote

The data is in line with polling in the state that has shown Trump shedding support among older voters. According to a Fox News poll of Pennsylvania, Trump is running 5 percentage points behind Harris among voters ages 65 and over, slipping back from the previous month, when he and Harris were tied with that demographic. It’s a major shift from 2020, when Trump carried 53 percent of the senior vote in Pennsylvania in a losing effort in the state.

 

Spoiler

For Democrats, it’s an unexpected reason for optimism.

Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart, said he has been surprised by what he is calling the “silver surge” in early voting from older Democrats.

“Our expectation going into the early vote was that it would, in general, skew substantially more Republican than in 2020,” Bonier said. “There is no more pandemic, Democrats were more Covid conscious … and Republicans have been pushing early voting.”

The senior vote is particularly important in five of the seven battleground states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina — that, according to U.S. Census data, have more residents over the age of 65than the national average.

According to modeling data shared by a Democratic campaign operative tracking early voting, across the Blue Wall states, Democratic voters over the age of 65 are running 10 to 20 percent ahead of their Republican counterparts with respect to registered turnout.

And the same Democratic modeling shows Black voters over the age of 65 — and in particular older Black women, a core Democratic bloc — are returning ballots at a higher rate than any other demographic group.

In Pennsylvania, the biggest battleground in the Blue Wall, Republicans are encouraged because the partisan gap in ballots returned so far has narrowed significantly since 2020. Democrats hold only a 25-point advantage, compared to nearly 50 points four years ago. That is a sign that GOP efforts to encourage their voters to bank ballots early have had success.

But what that means for the overall makeup of the electorate when voting is complete is less clear. Roughly 35 percent of Republicans who have cast ballots so far in Pennsylvania are voters who cast ballots on Election Day in 2020, according to a POLITICO analysis of the state’s early voting data.

By contrast, around 8 percent of Democrats who have voted in the state voted on Election Day in 2020. Those figures suggest that the early vote in Pennsylvania is likely to be redder than four years ago — and the Election Day vote is likely to be bluer — based on how voters are switching the timing of their votes.

Still, it’s not unusual for both seniors and Democrats to cast their votes sooner, both in the earliest days of absentee voting and before Election Day overall.

Pennsylvania Trump campaign spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement, “Americans of all ages and backgrounds are unifying behind President Trump’s agenda to Make America Safe, Strong, Wealthy, and Great Again, and this reality is playing out in record Republican voter registrations and turnout across battleground states, including Pennsylvania.”

And Charlie Gerow, a Republican strategist in Pennsylvania and the CEO of Quantum Communications, noted that “Republicans and older Republicans in particular, generally, like to vote on Election Day because that’s what they’re accustomed to.”

“So if the numbers are that tightly squeezed, it says that Republicans are going to do very well on November 5,” he said.

Earlier this week, RNC Chair Michael Whatley told POLITICO that “what we are seeing in terms of metrics, voter registration, the early vote, the absentee vote numbers look really good across the country, especially the battleground states.”

A recent CNN poll of Blue Wall states found Harris leading by a slim margin to Trump among voters 65 and older in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump led against Harris with older voters in Wisconsin.

Nationally, a recent ABC News poll found Harris leads among voters over 65 by 5 percentage points — a 10-point swing towards Democrats from 2020, when Trump won voters over 65 by 5 points.

Bob Ward, a partner with Fabrizio Ward who has conducted polling for AARP, said he wasn’t surprised to see that seniors are making up the majority of the early vote so far.

“Seniors across the board are the most motivated to vote,” said Ward. “They are the most informed citizens we have paying attention to the news and they are, I think, more so than most vested in the outcomes of elections, because of how many people are dependent on government programs of that age group — Medicare and Social Security are super important.”

Ward said that while both Republican and Democratic seniors are concerned about the economy, Republicans have been motivated by immigration and the border, while Democrats have been propelled by threats to democracy, abortion and reproductive rights.

Both campaigns have been working to shore up support among senior voters. On Tuesday, Trump hosted an event in Drexel Hill, Pennsylvania, where he held a round table aimed at seniors and took questions on topics ranging from immigration to Medicare and Social Security. Trump has proposed eliminating the taxation of Social Security benefits, and has talked about tax breaks for at-home caregivers. But he also called immigration, a cornerstone of his campaign, the “biggest senior issue.”

Meanwhile Harris has also said she opposes any plan that would reduce or cut Social Security benefits and has touted her proposal to expand Medicare to provide home care to help families who are struggling with the costs of long-term care. Her closing message has centered around threats to democracy and reproductive rights.

Bonier said that older women in particular may be mobilizing to vote in response to the Dobbs decision.

“They’re fired up,” he said.

 

Edited November 1 by Francisco 2.0

[wood 11225]

30 minutes ago, YChang said:

In Japan for vacation currently and had my first convo with a local about the election. Talk about a small world, this gentleman’s son studied in Wisconsin and now lives/work in Houston. I told him I’m nervous about the upcoming election and he shared my sentiment of bewilderment about how it’s even possibly a close election. 

Will still be abroad past Nov 5… 😅

Narrator: It's not close. She gonna win, bigly.

[Chad Fuck 17658]

Damn. At least the Nazis had Hugo Boss to make them look good.

But I guess Hefty bags probably fit this crowd better.

[Chopper 17230]

1 hour ago, flatdawgs said:

I have a Tuesday am conference call with my Portuguese attorney - wasn't set up for election day specifically; she set it up and I'm sure there'll be non-Americans on it - but always nice to go over my options again.

 

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

Golden Visa baby!  i’ve been looking at Portugal as well

I guess that's 3 of us, at least. We invested a while back and are waiting on their government to get to us. 

9 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

So, I have a client who recently passed away and his wife and daughter are trying to license some of his patents to an Austrian manufacturer.

They have a family friend that is a lawyer cum real estate investor that is kind of leading the charge with one of his German business associates.

He said today on a conference call, "let's hope Trump wins, they're afraid of Trump and his tariffs blah blah blah."  

I could feel the eye rolls from some of the people on the call.  It sounded so stupid, regardless of your political affinities.

Guys in his late 60s and real-estatey, but really ought to know better.

"tariffs blah blah blah" - the thing is it's overwhelming how many shitty policies they're proposing to enact. Sure, let's just destroy the vaccine structure, annihilate what's left of our health care system, turn women into second class citizens (or to try to put it more accurately, push them further down while continuing to rely on them for so much more than men provide our world), deport citizens and cut the workforce by a million...it just boggles the mind and that just scratches the surface. Tariffs, trade war, exit NATO, let Russia kill what's left of Ukraine...they're proposing so many horrible things it's easy to lose track.

[SydneyCarton 48054]

1 hour ago, BamaATL said:

To summarize, the TargetSmart guys are saying Trump is a one legged man in an ass kicking contest.  

SushiHorn loooooves TargetSmart. 

10 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Geezus jumped-up Christ.  It's a gotdam DTPA suit filed in ND Tex Amarillo division, where Kazmethhead sits.

 Venue is wrong and personal jurisdiction is probably dubious.  Texas law doesn't apply.  Trump is not a consumer.  This is not what DTPA addresses.  And, yeah, standing is a problem too..

This thing should be shot into the sun, without whiskey or hash browns.

Great. As I said, Im not a lawyer. Can you try this in English or do you want to keep speaking in Klingon? 

[David Dennison 18844]

11 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

The census bureau/pew definition of Gen X (beginning at 1965) is bullshit on infinite levels. Don’t even get me started.

the best definition is Strauss and Howe: 61-81.

Whatever.

[BamaATL 16593]

Just now, SydneyCarton said:

SushiHorn loooooves TargetSmart. 

Great. As I said, Im not a lawyer. Can you try this in English or do you want to keep speaking in Klingon? 

I'm aware, and if he bothers to listen to them, they will tell him everything he is assuming is wrong.  Dead wrong.  

[Wax Beer Cup 382]

1 hour ago, flatdawgs said:

New government changed the rules, although there may be some new programs I'd be very interested in should they come up. Real estate no longer counts. May just end up retiring and doing the D7 visa instead and not worrying about the investment strategies. 

There's a house just outside of Tavira I really want to have a look at... need to get back there again. 

This seems like an easier route if you ask me 

 

[SizzleChest 8283]

12 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Geezus jumped-up Christ.  It's a gotdam DTPA suit filed in ND Tex Amarillo division, where Kazmethhead sits.

 Venue is wrong and personal jurisdiction is probably dubious.  Texas law doesn't apply.  Trump is not a consumer.  This is not what DTPA addresses.  And, yeah, standing is a problem too..

This thing should be shot into the sun, without whiskey or hash browns.

It’s the legal version of a ragey Truth Social post.

[dcbc 14465]

4 minutes ago, Chopper said:

 

I guess that's 3 of us, at least. We invested a while back and are waiting on their government to get to us. 

"tariffs blah blah blah" - the thing is it's overwhelming how many shitty policies they're proposing to enact. Sure, let's just destroy the vaccine structure, annihilate what's left of our health care system, turn women into second class citizens (or to try to put it more accurately, push them further down while continuing to rely on them for so much more than men provide our world), deport citizens and cut the workforce by a million...it just boggles the mind and that just scratches the surface. Tariffs, trade war, exit NATO, let Russia kill what's left of Ukraine...they're proposing so many horrible things it's easy to lose track.

If you start with the premise that Trump is some sort of Russian "asset," it all makes perfect sense.

[TexEx15 17509]

 

[dcbc 14465]

17 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Trump is not a consumer.

Boom.  Head shot.  Should be an absolute DOA case.

 

But 'scrilla?

Edited November 1 by dcbc

[Chopper 17230]

If Lebron's endorsement is here I didn't see it.

[Macanudo 12974]

35 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

Not a lawyer, but what’s the standing here? 

That's what I want to know.  I realize "why" it was filed in Amarillo (friendly MAGA judge) but I don't understand how it's allowed.   Neither CBS or Trump reside or do business there.   How is that allowed as the place for the lawsuit?

[Michael Knight 12976]

21 hours ago, Huckleberry said:

Hey! … You Gonna Eat or What

 

[Gatorubet 30184]

2 minutes ago, Chopper said:

If Lebron's endorsement is here I didn't see it.

“I was poor and no one liked me. I lost the election, I lost the Whitehouse, Melania hated me, and it was all because of this awful Negro…”

[Macanudo 12974]

1 minute ago, Michael Knight said:

Hey! … You Gonna Eat or What

 

If GM Steakhouse was a food truck.

[lemonlime 5503]

1 minute ago, Macanudo said:

That's what I want to know.  I realize "why" it was filed in Amarillo (friendly MAGA judge) but I don't understand how it's allowed.   Neither CBS or Trump reside or do business there.   How is that allowed as the place for the lawsuit?

It's allowed because the rule of law doesn't apply to trump.  The MAGA judge doesn't give a fuck about applying the law here.

[Dahobbs 17522]

26 minutes ago, TwiceHorn said:

Geezus jumped-up Christ.  It's a gotdam DTPA suit filed in ND Tex Amarillo division, where Kazmethhead sits.

 Venue is wrong and personal jurisdiction is probably dubious.  Texas law doesn't apply.  Trump is not a consumer.  This is not what DTPA addresses.  And, yeah, standing is a problem too..

This thing should be shot into the sun, without whiskey or hash browns.

One of the few instances where you really need Lynn Hughes to instantly destroy a suit. 

[Born to Run 6569]

Just wrapped up Halloween in my hood; we go all out.  Best costume was a dude dressed as JD Vance perfectly wheeling around an inflatable couch while blasting an anti trump song on repeat. He stayed in JD Vance character the whole time. Fucking Bravo.  Why the couch? "You keep your loved ones close even during an election." 

[TwiceHorn 31436]

39 minutes ago, Pancho said:

I did that on purpose and left out the hyphens.

[TwiceHorn 31436]

29 minutes ago, SydneyCarton said:

SushiHorn loooooves TargetSmart. 

Great. As I said, Im not a lawyer. Can you try this in English or do you want to keep speaking in Klingon? 

It's just wrong, so fucking wrong.  It doesn't belong in federal court or any court in the state of Texas.  It's like a pro se litigant, there's so goddamn many things wrong with it it's hard to figure out where to even start.

[Huckleberry 32845]

Just now, TwiceHorn said:

It's just wrong, so fucking wrong.  It doesn't belong in federal court or any court in the state of Texas.  It's like a pro se litigant, there's so goddamn many things wrong with it it's hard to figure out where to even start.

And these myriad problems are so obvious to anyone with any basic legal training whatsoever, and even many people without any legal training, that sanctions against filing counsel are certainly on the way, right?

[BehoId, The Underminer! 11669]

16 minutes ago, Dahobbs said:

One of the few instances where you really need Lynn Hughes to instantly destroy a suit. 

He had that one election suit in 2020 where he ordered the defendant to file a motion to dismiss.  🤌🤌

[Chopper 17230]

at least it's a R politician blasting him this time

[HenryJames 66035]

[pantone159 719]

24 minutes ago, Michael Knight said:

Hey! … You Gonna Eat or What

 

That's the place. Monte Cristo, yum!!!

[Clintonaldo 2572]

43 minutes ago, Francisco 2.0 said:

https://www.politico.com/news/2024/10/31/trump-lagging-early-votes-seniors-pennsylvania-00186612

 

 

 

 

  Hide contents

For Democrats, it’s an unexpected reason for optimism.

Tom Bonier, a Democratic strategist and CEO of the data firm TargetSmart, said he has been surprised by what he is calling the “silver surge” in early voting from older Democrats.

“Our expectation going into the early vote was that it would, in general, skew substantially more Republican than in 2020,” Bonier said. “There is no more pandemic, Democrats were more Covid conscious … and Republicans have been pushing early voting.”

The senior vote is particularly important in five of the seven battleground states — Pennsylvania, Arizona, Michigan, Wisconsin, and North Carolina — that, according to U.S. Census data, have more residents over the age of 65than the national average.

According to modeling data shared by a Democratic campaign operative tracking early voting, across the Blue Wall states, Democratic voters over the age of 65 are running 10 to 20 percent ahead of their Republican counterparts with respect to registered turnout.

And the same Democratic modeling shows Black voters over the age of 65 — and in particular older Black women, a core Democratic bloc — are returning ballots at a higher rate than any other demographic group.

In Pennsylvania, the biggest battleground in the Blue Wall, Republicans are encouraged because the partisan gap in ballots returned so far has narrowed significantly since 2020. Democrats hold only a 25-point advantage, compared to nearly 50 points four years ago. That is a sign that GOP efforts to encourage their voters to bank ballots early have had success.

But what that means for the overall makeup of the electorate when voting is complete is less clear. Roughly 35 percent of Republicans who have cast ballots so far in Pennsylvania are voters who cast ballots on Election Day in 2020, according to a POLITICO analysis of the state’s early voting data.

By contrast, around 8 percent of Democrats who have voted in the state voted on Election Day in 2020. Those figures suggest that the early vote in Pennsylvania is likely to be redder than four years ago — and the Election Day vote is likely to be bluer — based on how voters are switching the timing of their votes.

Still, it’s not unusual for both seniors and Democrats to cast their votes sooner, both in the earliest days of absentee voting and before Election Day overall.

Pennsylvania Trump campaign spokesperson Kush Desai said in a statement, “Americans of all ages and backgrounds are unifying behind President Trump’s agenda to Make America Safe, Strong, Wealthy, and Great Again, and this reality is playing out in record Republican voter registrations and turnout across battleground states, including Pennsylvania.”

And Charlie Gerow, a Republican strategist in Pennsylvania and the CEO of Quantum Communications, noted that “Republicans and older Republicans in particular, generally, like to vote on Election Day because that’s what they’re accustomed to.”

“So if the numbers are that tightly squeezed, it says that Republicans are going to do very well on November 5,” he said.

Earlier this week, RNC Chair Michael Whatley told POLITICO that “what we are seeing in terms of metrics, voter registration, the early vote, the absentee vote numbers look really good across the country, especially the battleground states.”

A recent CNN poll of Blue Wall states found Harris leading by a slim margin to Trump among voters 65 and older in Pennsylvania and Michigan. Trump led against Harris with older voters in Wisconsin.

Nationally, a recent ABC News poll found Harris leads among voters over 65 by 5 percentage points — a 10-point swing towards Democrats from 2020, when Trump won voters over 65 by 5 points.

Bob Ward, a partner with Fabrizio Ward who has conducted polling for AARP, said he wasn’t surprised to see that seniors are making up the majority of the early vote so far.

“Seniors across the board are the most motivated to vote,” said Ward. “They are the most informed citizens we have paying attention to the news and they are, I think, more so than most vested in the outcomes of elections, because of how many people are dependent on government programs of that age group — Medicare and Social Security are super important.”

Ward said that while both Republican and Democratic seniors are concerned about the economy, Republicans have been motivated by immigration and the border, while Democrats have been propelled by threats to democracy, abortion and reproductive rights.

Both campaigns have been working to shore up support among senior voters. On Tuesday, Trump hosted an event in Drexel Hill, Pennsylvania, where he held a round table aimed at seniors and took questions on topics ranging from immigration to Medicare and Social Security. Trump has proposed eliminating the taxation of Social Security benefits, and has talked about tax breaks for at-home caregivers. But he also called immigration, a cornerstone of his campaign, the “biggest senior issue.”

Meanwhile Harris has also said she opposes any plan that would reduce or cut Social Security benefits and has touted her proposal to expand Medicare to provide home care to help families who are struggling with the costs of long-term care. Her closing message has centered around threats to democracy and reproductive rights.

Bonier said that older women in particular may be mobilizing to vote in response to the Dobbs decision.

“They’re fired up,” he said.

 

Might as well make this the I’d Pee In Her Butt forum because this has me edging. 

[TwiceHorn 31436]

4 minutes ago, Huckleberry said:

And these myriad problems are so obvious to anyone with any basic legal training whatsoever, and even many people without any legal training, that sanctions against filing counsel are certainly on the way, right?

From Kazmethhead, probably not.

[DixonHur 11292]

8 minutes ago, pantone159 said:

That's the place. Monte Cristo, yum!!!

[Francisco 2.0 32386]

 

 

 

[Chopper 17230]

11 minutes ago, HenryJames said:

8 years ago. It's incredible that people of voting age are just learning about it. Free link. https://archive.ph/BOnf2

[butthurt 1522]

5 minutes ago, DixonHur said:

[Kyrie Eleison 9312]

[Chopper 17230]

[Rex Kramer 1331]

Wife and I had dinner tonight avoiding Halloween kids like good republicans. After a few drinks she asked me how I voted. I told her. We left in separate cars as she had to collect kids. This is our text exchange:

[Brisketexan 105051]

And these myriad problems are so obvious to anyone with any basic legal training whatsoever, and even many people without any legal training, that sanctions against filing counsel are certainly on the way, right?

From Kazmethhead, probably not.

Yeah. There won’t be sanctions. It won’t be dismissed. He will win. Because in that court, the law doesn’t apply. But it’s okay…on appeal, it goes to the 5th circuit, which has also completely dispensed with the rule of law when it comes to MAGA.

[MissingInAction 25004]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Geezus jumped-up Christ.  It's a gotdam DTPA suit filed in ND Tex Amarillo division, where Kazmethhead sits, between residents of Florida and New York, with absolutely zero connection to the state of Texas.

 Venue is wrong and personal jurisdiction is probably dubious.  Texas law doesn't apply.  Trump is not a consumer.  This is not what DTPA addresses.  And, yeah, standing is a problem too..

This thing should be shot into the sun, without whiskey or hash browns.

But what if I want whiskey and hash browns?

[immamac 42834]

Well god damn Rex. You really are out of my dog house. Not because of your vote, but welcome to the fucking party. Fighting the good fight. 

[StassneyHorn 6573]

7 minutes ago, Rex Kramer said:

Wife and I had dinner tonight avoiding Halloween kids like good republicans. After a few drinks she asked me how I voted. I told her. We left in separate cars as she had to collect kids. This is our text exchange:

As much as you think the other thread isn’t CR, There is another thread you should post this in. Oil n Guess

[StassneyHorn 6573]

1 minute ago, immamac said:

Well god damn Rex. You really are out of my dog house. Not because of your vote, but welcome to the fucking party. Fighting the good fight. 

Trump wants the absolute lowest prices for oil and doesn’t shy away. Everyone in Texas needs to know. There is a bad spot

[MissingInAction 25004]

1 hour ago, Gatorubet said:

“I was poor and no one liked me. I lost the election, I lost the Whitehouse, Melania hated me, and it was all because of this awful Negro…”