2024 Presidential Election Thread - Let's keep the party going.

[BamaATL 15780]

GA overnight takeaways

1.  3.695 million have voted

2.  Women now outpace men by 438k, however it's a .1% downtick from yesterday

3.  2020 non voters now make up 734k, the 18-29 demo is 264k  

 

Today is the last day of EV, though mail in will continue to come thru.  However, to date, the total mail in vote has been 230k, at that rate, any amount that continues to come in will be statistically marginal.  This time tomorrow, final data from EV will be out, and I will work on a final projection in the prediction thread.  My best guess at the moment is Georgia will have record turnout of approximately 5.7 million voters come end of day Tuesday.  

 

[Js1 82560]

8 hours ago, TexEx15 said:

 

Detroit Free Press is also Harris +3

[dcbc 14210]

4 minutes ago, Js1 said:

Detroit Free Press is also Harris +3

Hooray!

[texastough 1094]

4 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

 

 

My best guess at the moment is Georgia will have record turnout of approximately 5.7 million voters come end of day Tuesday.  

 

Compared to less than 5 million in 2020? Seems good?

[South Austin 51470]

26 minutes ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What's with the gloomy vibes,  were y'all up listening to Joy Division all night? 

As an 80s kid who was heavily into the British post-punk new wave genre, this is a fantastic reference.

[Red Five 40146]

Did we just skip right over Trump saying Liz Cheney should be shot in the face?

[BamaATL 15780]

4 minutes ago, texastough said:

Compared to less than 5 million in 2020? Seems good?

That's my guess based on everything we are seeing.  I took what I am calling a standard attrition of 2% and applied it across the board (i.e. deaths, people moving out of state, etc.).  Then I added the 2020 non voters to date and add 10% on top of that for day of non voters.  When I put all that together, I come to 5.7 million.  I didn't account for the fact that 8.3% of day of 2020 voters have participated in EV, so it might be a little lower, but I don't think by much (think 5.4 to 5.7 million total votes).  At any rate, apathy is always the Democrats biggest enemy, and to be quite frank, I don't see any (at least that jumps out as a huge statistical anomaly).  If I had one slight, and I do mean slight concern, it's that the African American early vote is down relative to percentage by 1 point, I wish that wasn't the case.  

[GhostOfTomJoad 9110]

Woke up to the sound of Mrs GOTJ crying at 2AM. She'd woken from a nightmare that TFG won, and mobs of Trumpkins were wandering the streets in search of immigrants, LGBTQ+, and women to lock up.

Trying to calm her fears & reassure her that Harris is going to win gets more challenging every day w/ the constant onslaught of bullshit polling & media frenzy in search of clicks & eyeballs.

[TexArcher 36932]

21 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

Best bunch of assholes on the internet.

Pornhub has entered the chat...

 

[GhostOfTomJoad 9110]

Did we just skip right over Trump saying Liz Cheney should be shot in the face?

Dude, when you've said & done as much shit that would be an automatic disqualifier for any other candidate than dotard & none of it seems to stick it just gets tossed on the pile of "no fucks left to give."

[4th&Five 41059]

1 minute ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Woke up to the sound of Mrs GOTJ crying at 2AM. She'd woken from a nightmare that TFG won, and mobs of Trumpkins were wandering the streets in search of immigrants, LGBTQ+, and women to lock up.

Trying to calm her fears & reassure her that Harris is going to win gets more challenging every day w/ the constant onslaught of bullshit polling & media frenzy in search of clicks & eyeballs.

Last night mine said she’ll probably need therapy if he wins. At least she recognizes it, I guess. 

[South Austin 51470]

3 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Did we just skip right over Trump saying Liz Cheney should be shot in the face?

Trump could actually shoot Liz Cheney in the face and this thread would post Audrey Plaza pics and talk about their favorite menu item at Chili's.

[NAVY 6616]

3 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Trump could actually shoot Liz Cheney in the face and this thread would post Audrey Plaza pics and talk about their favorite menu item at Chili's.

See how differently we deal with stress than Trump? 

[BamaATL 15780]

4 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Woke up to the sound of Mrs GOTJ crying at 2AM. She'd woken from a nightmare that TFG won, and mobs of Trumpkins were wandering the streets in search of immigrants, LGBTQ+, and women to lock up.

Trying to calm her fears & reassure her that Harris is going to win gets more challenging every day w/ the constant onslaught of bullshit polling & media frenzy in search of clicks & eyeballs.

Let her know that she isn't alone, my wife, who did 2 tours in Iraq has never felt the need to carry as a civilian.  However, should shit go south Tuesday, she is adamant about carrying from now on, while we finalize where we will be moving to out of the country (I don't really want to leave, but hey life is an adventure, so ok).  She is also adamant about laying low for a couple of weeks post election because at least a few nutjobs will do something (I think she's absolutely right on that).  

[The Original Greaser Bob 2677]

6 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Trump could actually shoot Liz Cheney in the face and this thread would post Audrey Plaza pics and talk about their favorite menu item at Chili's.

Pics (of food or Audrey) or STFU.

[Goofyboy 2962]

More Epstein tapes have dropped. Won’t matter to Trumpkins.

[HenryJames 64993]

13 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Did we just skip right over Trump saying Liz Cheney should be shot in the face?

By her dad?

[South Austin 51470]

11 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Woke up to the sound of Mrs GOTJ crying at 2AM. She'd woken from a nightmare that TFG won, and mobs of Trumpkins were wandering the streets in search of immigrants, LGBTQ+, and women to lock up.

Trying to calm her fears & reassure her that Harris is going to win gets more challenging every day w/ the constant onslaught of bullshit polling & media frenzy in search of clicks & eyeballs.

This is the perfect opportunity of middle-of-the-night sex.  I mean, it's all about comforting her.

[Kel Varnsen 8250]

2 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I’ve been feeling optimistic until this morning. Friends of mine, all educated, white women in Texas, dressed as garbage and bragged about their votes. Obvious they are part of the cult. One is actually a really good friend too. Sigh.

See the Texas a failed state thread...

[SydneyCarton 47168]

45 minutes ago, Js1 said:

It amazes me that after about a decade, there is still only one source for that gif on the internet and it's still choppy AF. 

[NAVY 6616]

2 minutes ago, Goofyboy said:

More Epstein tapes have dropped. Won’t matter to Trumpkins.

They’ll rebrand them Commemorative Trump and Friends Tapes. Buy the whole set! 
 

And then place them next to the other Trump stuff, like coffee table book and of course Trump bible.

[Horndog 2141]

1 hour ago, TwiceHorn said:

Two questions have to be answered here, one is "personal jurisdiction" and the other is venue.  Personal jurisdiction is constitutional and its existence gives the court the power to hear the case and its lack deprives the court of that power.  It attempts to measure the defendant's connections or contacts with the state in question and the fairness/foreseeability of being sued in the state.  It probably barely exists here because the case arises out of CBS' broadcast of the interview and subsequent actions, all of which were available to viewers in Texas, as CBS knew and intended.  That's probably enough.

Venue is not constitutional, it's a creature of statute.  Some statutes mandate where venue lies for certain kinds of cases, like patent infringement, where the suit must be filed where the defendant resides or commits acts of infringement and maintains a place of business (e.g. an Apple store for when Apple infringes patents).  If the suit is not filed in one of those places, venue is conclusively wrong and the suit must be dismissed or transferred to a district where venue is proper.

But a lot of cases have no "mandatory venue" statute, and this would be one of them.  Therefore, if personal jurisdiction is satisfied, so is venue, at least technically.  So, the judge can dismiss or transfer it if the venue is "inconvenient."  There are factors to consider here, one of which is a complete lack of connection of the plaintiff (and defendant) to the venue in question.  However, ultimately it is an "abuse of discretion" standard that mostly leaves it up to the judge.  The only way to appeal a judge's venue decision is by a "writ of mandamus," which is a very narrow type of appeal that is disfavored and typically unlikely to succeed.  It would seem that the political affinity between the 5th Circuit, Kazmethhead, and Trump mean this is effectively unappealable.

Trump is not a  consumer. Period. He did not seek or acquire any goods or services by purchase or lease. If this is specifically a DTPA case it doesn't get past a Motion to Dismiss. 

[Chult86 296]

If I can throw my own anecdotal non-quantifiable local observations on the pile...

Living in Sarasota, FL... about as red (and old... and white...) as it gets here... there are literally ZERO trump flags and trucks/etc this year compared to 2020. 2020 we had truck parades of his supporters with dozens of their flags driving around coal-rolling everywhere... merchandise stands popped up on streets in numerous places selling Trump/Pence shirts...

Now? This year? I honked vigorously at a collection of Harris/Walz folks on a major intersection yesterday.

FL has both abortion and legal weed on the ballot, so it gives hope of going back blue... but there's a LOT of republican transplants from CA/NY that have moved here since 2020. Trump enthusiasm locally is not even measurable compared to four years ago.

[BurntOrange&White 38723]

13 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Trump could actually shoot Liz Cheney in the face and this thread would post Audrey Plaza pics and talk about their favorite menu item at Chili's.

[Goredho 17155]

15 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Woke up to the sound of Mrs GOTJ crying at 2AM. She'd woken from a nightmare that TFG won, and mobs of Trumpkins were wandering the streets in search of immigrants, LGBTQ+, and women to lock up.

Trying to calm her fears & reassure her that Harris is going to win gets more challenging every day w/ the constant onslaught of bullshit polling & media frenzy in search of clicks & eyeballs.

I don't know how you people forced to live in a state without recreational marijuana laws are still functioning.

As for me? Sleeping like a baby...

[Hollywood 261]

One can only hope that Audrey Plaza is Aubrey Plaza's sluttier twin sister 

[SydneyCarton 47168]

19 minutes ago, Red Five said:

Did we just skip right over Trump saying Liz Cheney should be shot in the face?

The mainstream media won't even mention it, so why should we?

17 minutes ago, GhostOfTomJoad said:

Woke up to the sound of Mrs GOTJ crying at 2AM. She'd woken from a nightmare that TFG won, and mobs of Trumpkins were wandering the streets in search of immigrants, LGBTQ+, and women to lock up.

Trying to calm her fears & reassure her that Harris is going to win gets more challenging every day w/ the constant onslaught of bullshit polling & media frenzy in search of clicks & eyeballs.

 

15 minutes ago, 4th&Five said:

Last night mine said she’ll probably need therapy if he wins. At least she recognizes it, I guess. 

 

8 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

Let her know that she isn't alone, my wife, who did 2 tours in Iraq has never felt the need to carry as a civilian.  However, should shit go south Tuesday, she is adamant about carrying from now on, while we finalize where we will be moving to out of the country (I don't really want to leave, but hey life is an adventure, so ok).  She is also adamant about laying low for a couple of weeks post election because at least a few nutjobs will do something (I think she's absolutely right on that).  

Bama and his wife have this one correct. If this were effecting my wife that horribly, we'd already have a plan to fucking move. Sadly, she can't handle the anxiety of this shit so she unplugs and pretend it doesn't exist. I mean, she knows Trump is bad, she knows what's under assault, but she has convinced herself things will work out because basically, she has no other choice for her mental health. But if she were having nightmares or talking about therapy, we'd be fucking out of here. 

She did look into getting her passport renewed, however, when I told her to last week. Which is something. 

[Bozo_Casanova 25575]

39 minutes ago, BamaATL said:

GA overnight takeaways

1.  3.695 million have voted

2.  Women now outpace men by 438k, however it's a .1% downtick from yesterday

3.  2020 non voters now make up 734k, the 18-29 demo is 264k  

 

Today is the last day of EV, though mail in will continue to come thru.  However, to date, the total mail in vote has been 230k, at that rate, any amount that continues to come in will be statistically marginal.  This time tomorrow, final data from EV will be out, and I will work on a final projection in the prediction thread.  My best guess at the moment is Georgia will have record turnout of approximately 5.7 million voters come end of day Tuesday.  

 

How much of the non voters is 30-44?

ans how much of that is female?

[Evil Bill Obrien 2869]

9 minutes ago, Hollywood said:

One can only hope that Audrey Plaza is Aubrey Plaza's sluttier twin sister 

[flatdawgs 1210]

2 hours ago, UpperWestside said:

Boy howdy you are really lucky to not see this circus sideshow on a daily basis. NYC has way too many of these people. It may be a Democratic stronghold, but the stain of Staten Island and Suffolk County is just embarrassing.

I won’t return to the mainland once I leave. Once that plane leaves in January I will not set foot in the continental US for the rest of my life if I can help it. We have this very short time to live and enjoy our lives and even wasting a minute of it living with just hateful, bottom of the barrel people is just in no way worth it. My niece and nephew will know which South Pacific country I am living in and they can come visit me there when they are older and can travel. I hope to get my mom out to Honolulu for at least a month once I settle in as well.

Serious question, from someone who's been to most of these island countries (Polynesia/Micronesia/Melanesia all) - do you have a specific game plan as to how to obtain residency in any of them? If not, you'll find that it's nearly impossible and for a very good reason - there is an extreme scarcity of resources for their own people, let alone folks who see the swaying palm trees, beaches, and lagoons and think "paradise!" and have since the Bounty mutineers decided they wanted to go back to Tahiti. You'll find some of the loveliest people anywhere out there - and you'll also find that as happy as they are to see you, they're at least as happy when you go. Go out to say, Tarawa in Kiribati (I know you're familiar with that particular island's place in history) and see what a shitshow the i-Kiribati themselves have made it. Hell, even as an American citizen you can't just pick up and move to one of the American territories like you can to Hawai'i.

A further aside to the expat life in general - and there's several on the board who can attest to this - you will be much more successful in your quest to find the right place for you if you aren't doing it just to flee somewhere else. Everywhere on Earth has their share of problems, assholes, and greedy shitbags who will happily give you a big "Fuck you!" to your face. Generally speaking, like here, it's 30-40% and that's easily borne out looking at election results (Europe is a great example of this). The Solomon Islands, for example, are a freaking mess between the pro-Western and pro-Chinese factions, both of whom just see them as strategic and don't give a rat's ass about them. In Fiji, the Fijian native population and those of Indian descent brought by the British cordially hate one another (I was there when a coup occurred, which was fun). It goes on and on no matter where you are. Doesn't mean there aren't great places - I've looked at many - but there's no perfect place where you can avoid the troglodytes and venality that are a function of being human. 

I know your affinity for that part of the world - we have a similar love of history - and I truly wish you luck in finding the right place, and one where you'll be able to relocate. I just hope that it's an "eyes wide open" move. Being an expat can be really, really hard without that.

[Pato del Muerto 51930]

*twin step-sister. 
 

For reasons. Don’t overthink it. 

[PenelopeWitherspoon 18339]

I am headed to LA on Saturday the 9th, then back to NYC for a day before heading to London until the 21st. I have repeatedly commented that I might want to transfer to our London office (Or Geneva, Oslo, Madrid, etc..). 

[gmr548 16268]

3 hours ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I’ve been feeling optimistic until this morning. Friends of mine, all educated, white women in Texas, dressed as garbage and bragged about their votes. Obvious they are part of the cult. One is actually a really good friend too. Sigh.

Your friends are stupid freaks and I highly recommend new ones.

[BurntOrange&White 38723]

5 minutes ago, Pato del Muerto said:

*twin step-sister. 
 

For reasons. Don’t overthink it. 

[tx ind 6853]

18 minutes ago, Hollywood said:

One can only hope that Audrey Plaza is Aubrey Plaza's sluttier twin sister 

[SydneyCarton 47168]

4 minutes ago, flatdawgs said:

Serious question, from someone who's been to most of these island countries (Polynesia/Micronesia/Melanesia all) - do you have a specific game plan as to how to obtain residency in any of them? If not, you'll find that it's nearly impossible and for a very good reason - there is an extreme scarcity of resources for their own people, let alone folks who see the swaying palm trees, beaches, and lagoons and think "paradise!" and have since the Bounty mutineers decided they wanted to go back to Tahiti. You'll find some of the loveliest people anywhere out there - and you'll also find that as happy as they are to see you, they're at least as happy when you go. Go out to say, Tarawa in Kiribati (I know you're familiar with that particular island's place in history) and see what a shitshow the i-Kiribati themselves have made it. Hell, even as an American citizen you can't just pick up and move to one of the American territories like you can to Hawai'i.

A further aside to the expat life in general - and there's several on the board who can attest to this - you will be much more successful in your quest to find the right place for you if you aren't doing it just to flee somewhere else. Everywhere on Earth has their share of problems, assholes, and greedy shitbags who will happily give you a big "Fuck you!" to your face. Generally speaking, like here, it's 30-40% and that's easily borne out looking at election results (Europe is a great example of this). The Solomon Islands, for example, are a freaking mess between the pro-Western and pro-Chinese factions, both of whom just see them as strategic and don't give a rat's ass about them. In Fiji, the Fijian native population and those of Indian descent brought by the British cordially hate one another (I was there when a coup occurred, which was fun). It goes on and on no matter where you are. Doesn't mean there aren't great places - I've looked at many - but there's no perfect place where you can avoid the troglodytes and venality that are a function of being human. 

I know your affinity for that part of the world - we have a similar love of history - and I truly wish you luck in finding the right place, and one where you'll be able to relocate. I just hope that it's an "eyes wide open" move. Being an expat can be really, really hard without that.

I know the rest of the world is just as fucked up as here. Outside of the existence of some basic protected rights for women, and other baselines, I think that living elsewhere would...break my heart less. Having been raised in the 80s/90s on the concept of the American Dream, and equality, and freedom, learning and being remidned every single day that it's all pretty much a bunch fo bullshit that people these days can't wait to tear down and completely erradicate as quickly as possibly...it's a weight that I'm struggling to bear. Along with willful ignorance, rejection of intelligence and science and learning. 

That shit exists to varying degrees everywhere, but I don't think seeing it every day there will break my heart like seeing it here every day does...

[locodos 5170]

1 hour ago, Bozo_Casanova said:

What's with the gloomy vibes,  were y'all up listening to Joy Division all night? 

The Cure has a new album out....  let me just check that out for a second...oh dear god!

"The Cure frontman Robert Smith says performing songs from the band's newly-released album, Songs Of A Lost World, helped him deal with the grief of losing close family members in recent years."

[SydneyCarton 47168]

5 minutes ago, PenelopeWitherspoon said:

I am headed to LA on Saturday the 9th, then back to NYC for a day before heading to London until the 21st. I have repeatedly commented that I might want to transfer to our London office (Or Geneva, Oslo, Madrid, etc..). 

See. More new friends!

[South Austin 51470]

Just now, locodos said:

The Cure has a new album out

I saw The Cure at ACL Fest a few years ago.  They sounded fucking great.  And then I looked to the big screen at a shot of Robert Smith and said "Jesus!"  He's looking rough.  

[Pancho 41907]

Souf Carolina

turnip +7

[RomaVicta 29484]

NYT

 

Could the Times be any more namby pamby? "Violent War Imagery?"

What does having nine gun barrels pointed at your face suggest?

 Any American president suggesting this should be frog marched right away to confront nine rifle barrels. He shouldn't be able to show his face in public.

He's obviously seeking plenary power. 

Sigh. That's right. The obvious is passe.

[Gatorubet 29442]

Just now, Pancho said:

Souf Carolina

turnip +7

Knowing South Carolina, that seems low.

[Jive Turkey 12213]

Our goal today is to badger my wife’s best friend into voting today.  She’ll vote for Kamala/Allred, but we just got to get her there.  Her friend is a lawyer who was out of state all last week and has been “too busy” to go early vote this week.  She’s busy but she ain’t that busy.  And the reason she is busy is because she procrastinates and is inefficient with her time, but that’s a whole other story.

If she doesn’t do it today, there is very little chance she’ll do it on Election Day.  She’ll come up with some excuse that “I can’t wait in line for 2 hours. I’m too busy.”  So my wife is texting her constantly.  There’s an underserved voting center 10 minutes from her house that isn’t busy.

And there are millions of people in Texas just like our friend who would vote D but they just haven’t prioritized voting. 

[Bozo_Casanova 25575]

4 minutes ago, South Austin said:

I saw The Cure at ACL Fest a few years ago.  They sounded fucking great.  And then I looked to the big screen at a shot of Robert Smith and said "Jesus!"  He's looking rough.  

The years have not been kind to Robert Smith. 
In contrast, I went to the Duran Duran show at ACL in 2021 expecting them to be sad and tired, but they were great and Simon LeBon looked his age but looked and sounded great. Huge main character energy, like Rod Stewart. 

Edited 3 hours ago by Bozo_Casanova

[Valmy77 12531]

1 minute ago, Pancho said:

Souf Carolina

turnip +7

That would be a very good result for Harris. Trump won South Carolina +11 in 2020 and +14 in 2016.

But we will see.

[Firemans4Horn 16904]

1 minute ago, RomaVicta said:

NYT

 

George W Bush remains silent. World’s biggest pussy. 

[flatdawgs 1210]

1 minute ago, SydneyCarton said:

I know the rest of the world is just as fucked up as here. Outside of the existence of some basic protected rights for women, and other baselines, I think that living elsewhere would...break my heart less. Having been raised in the 80s/90s on the concept of the American Dream, and equality, and freedom, learning and being remidned every single day that it's all pretty much a bunch fo bullshit that people these days can't wait to tear down and completely erradicate as quickly as possibly...it's a weight that I'm struggling to bear. Along with willful ignorance, rejection of intelligence and science and learning. 

That shit exists to varying degrees everywhere, but I don't think seeing it every day there will break my heart like seeing it here every day does...

You can definitely detach more when you expatriate, because those aren't "your people" doing this crazy shit - until, of course, you've made it your home, and then they are.

I'm definitely not opposed to the expat life at all; my posts re Portugal out front shoulda told ya, and my sister and her family have lived in London for 20 years and have dual citizenship (note - to me the UK is definitely a grass is greener thing and I'd personally not consider it, but to each their own).

By all means look into it as the adventure that it is, and if you go into it that way, to a place and culture that really speaks to you, you'll have success.

['stache 21505]

45 minutes ago, South Austin said:

Trump could actually shoot Liz Cheney in the face and this thread would post Audrey Plaza pics and talk about their favorite menu item at Chili's.

I finished Agatha All Along last night and Plaza making out with Kathryn Hahn is fresh in my spanks bank. 

[Mez2 4010]

19 hours ago, Rex Kramer said:

Mistress said she wouldn’t fuck me after lunch if I voted for Kamala. I’m not making this up. 

When Kramer hears about this, the shit's gonna hit the fan

[jimmyjazz 45101]

11 minutes ago, locodos said:

The Cure has a new album out....  let me just check that out for a second...oh dear god!

"The Cure frontman Robert Smith says performing songs from the band's newly-released album, Songs Of A Lost World, helped him deal with the grief of losing close family members in recent years."

On a tangential note -- Bob, the hair is no longer working.